Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[JMD]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Lyn Alden needs to get out more.

Try queuing in a foreign airport behind thick cunts who have paper boarding passes covered in sweat, went swimming with their passports and who think a metal watch and pockets full of coins shouldnt set off the metal detectors.

Come home to a uk airport where they dont get you to take your boots off for the scanners because they have a separate scanner for boots, so increasing the scan time, or havent updated to the ones that allow more than 100ml etc. Go to a spanish airport where 5 flights arrive simultaneously, the auto passport machines work and by the time you just walk through with little queuing your bags are on the carousel. 18 mins from walking off the airbridge to walking out the front door with bags. Spent 15 mins in the queue at home last night just to get through border patrol with one flight. Then another 20 minutes waiting on my bags to arrive. One international flight arrival the whole time I was there.

Technology is wonderful, I went to the same villa as last year and all the wifi automatically connected, the phones picked up the wifi from bars/restaurants from years ago. All so people can watch shorts on youtube or cat videos on twitter/ticktok etc

The vast, vast majority of people are thick as shit. If something doesnt work or stops they will either just give up or complain. My next door neighbours wife buys every piece of shit spam you see on facebook, from power washing roof tiles to all sorts of temu bollocks that goes in the bin a week later. Most people dont know spam, fake news, unwanted crap because thats who its aimed at.

Ive mentioned before I was so full of hope back in the late 90s. We were really changing the world with the internet. We were going to bring a wealth of information to everyones fingertips. Every single person on the planet could access every library, every museum, every scientific paper available. Every film ever made would be stored in laser discs in the local telephone exchange and people could dial up on their phone and see it and even pause and rewind. One day soon we would even have small computers in our hands that could talk wirelessly to the internet and we could sit on a beach at night and map stars and satellites in real time.
Instead we got fucking cat videos and fat fuckers on benefits ordering mcdonalds to their houses. AI has already worked out if we prefer dog or cat videos and already knows what time the fat fucks get up at so as it can preposition deliveroo drivers/cyclists.

Alden's suggestion of micro payment charges was to prevent/help rectify 'the tragedy of the (internet) commons' from happening. 

 

You also comment that your hopes for the internet were dashed. However do you not think that the good things you hoped for and listed in your post did actually happen?

I do accept that many bad things also occured (fake news, social friction and division, etc), but believe this was mainly caused by individual (mis)'behaviours'? My view is that the individual misbehaviour aspect stems from human society/culture changing much much faster than human nature can develop or evolve. This usually causes so-called 'tech shocks' for individuals, but also can manifest in a variety of abherant, criminal, exploitative behaviour. I guess I'm saying the fault lies in our genes so the harmful consequences of rapid tech change were probably inevitable.  ...I'm sure the social harms etc, will be resoled eventually but as the problems are deep, it will take long time to roll them back. 

But I also don't disregard the macro level, where the internet was characterised by a 'wild west' mentality - US driven?; ie. would the EU have done things differently if permitted? - with little controls and so also did harms commercially, politically etc. Unfortunately this is a more systemic problem and dependent I guess on Uncle Sam's next move!

 

Edited February 23 by JMD

[leonardratso]

19 minutes ago, snaga said:

yeah, but the AI will filter out the dog videos.

i dont see how using a turkey baster to impregnate cows is going to be too bothered about dog videos.

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

You also comment that your hopes for the internet were dashed. However don't you think the good things you hoped for and listed in your post did actually happen?

I do accept that many bad things also occured (fake news, social friction and division, etc), but think this was mainly caused by individual (mis)'behaviours'? My view is that the individual misbehaviour aspect stems from human society/culture changing much much faster than human nature can develop or evolve. This usually causes so-called 'tech shocks' for individuals, but also can manifest in a variety of abherant, criminal, exploitative behaviour. I guess I'm saying the fault lies in our genes so perhaps the harmful consequences of rapid tech change were inevitable.  ...I'm sure the social harms etc, will be resoled eventually but as the problems are deep, it will take long time to roll them back. 

But I also don't disregard the macro level, where the internet was characterised by a 'wild west' mentality - US driven?; ie. would the EU have done things differently if permitted? - with little controls and so also did harms commercially, politically etc. Unfortunately this is a more systemic problem and dependent I guess on Uncle Sam's next move!

 

Thats my entire point. It doesnt matter what the design is or the lofty thoughts, human nature and behaviour take over. You cant change that (although social media has tried and has done - more at the end).

Its like going back through to the original start of this thread. Theres all these great ideas but look at the fundamentals and human behaviour to see how eventually they will be used.
People take the hump when AI bots turn racist. Thats because humans are racist, its only reflecting what is put in, not some idealistic unobtainable trope.
I think theres a lot of truth in Terminator ;-) When skynet becomes self aware it realises humans are the problem and within a half hour tries to eradicate them.

It was always said porn drove technology, selected vhs over beta etc. Theres definitely some truth in that, its a base human urge and those are fundamental.

I remember trying to use US websites in the early 2000s and it was a fucking awful experience, real wild west, popups, self installs all sorts of shite which we never saw over in EU land. I still get fucked off with autoplay videos on things using my bandwidth without my say so. 'Oh and heres another thing before you go'. No, fuck off with your yankee shite. Webpage with 32 reasons why and it takes 64 back clicks to get the fuck out of it.

I was out today and saw a poster with a stat that said 45% of young adults in NI said their mental health deteriorated during lockdown. No coincidence that that was when social media took hold. Social media algorithms affect the brain. They trigger flight or flight or more recently, fight and flight at the same time. Humans have never really had to deal with this before except in wartime and usually under conditions of accompanied physical threat.
Even going back to the chat I had with my surgeon after my carpal tunnel surgery. He said the NHS was getting rid of it as the incidences were being reduced. More to do with fewer people using keyboards and older heavier action keyboards. He said he had (back then) started to see instances of thumb ligament damage he was attributing to swiping actions. He said there was no fix for that. I dont know if thats still true or not but it showed that the changes in technology were a lot quicker than evolution!

I go back again to my oft quoted anecdote about being at a lecture about social media and interaction. The speaker said we shouldnt really be worried about microphones in the house or smartphones listening to us, we should be worried about them building a profile of us or worse, engineering us into a profile where they can predict what we are going to do before we do it.

I remember going to a hypnotist show with my dad when I was a teenager. The type of thing were they get people up on stage and make them do and say stupid/funny things. I always remember my dad laughing at the end and saying to me 'son, one or two of them on that stage I could hypnotise myself'. He was right of course, its just that you dont need to pay money to go to a show to stand up on stage and be hypnotised.

[darkmarket]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes everything that is free gets abused in some way.

Lyn Alden says crypto micro-payments (doesn't necessarily need to be BTC) could be the solution to most spam, deep/fake news, unwanted crap, etc. Where i think every provider would have their own coin. 

This is the Hashcash concept, which can finally be applied via Lightning Network.

[crashmonitor]

Quelled surprise, the new issuance of Government debt 1931 4% may be under subscribed and the BOE are allowing the public to buy direct for the first time.

Now if the 2% CPI target was real then 4% would be a steal, but the Markets aren't keen. They know that the BOE is keen on printing and the Government is keen on dreaming up inflationary  schemes to prop up the only thing that matters, namely he housing Market.

 

Who can blame them, we have the 99% Mortgage  Help for Geratrics Scheme in the offing ie. prop up Geriatrics wealth and give Millennials a good rogering. And we have the journos screaming for rate cuts when we are double CPI target.

 

Markets given up on the idea of a 2% target...well with likes of  Swati Dinghra in charge of rate setting and Liam Halligan being the Nation's conscience on where rates should be, you bloody bet 

Edited February 23 by crashmonitor

[Errol]

10 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Quelled surprise, the new issuance of Government debt 1931 4% may be under subscribed and the BOE are allowing the public to buy direct for the first time.

Now if the 2% CPI target was real then 4% would be a steal, but the Markets aren't keen. They know that the BOE is keen on printing and the Government is keen on dreaming up inflationary  schemes to prop up the only thing that matters, namely he housing Market.

 

Who can blame them, we have the 99% Mortgage  Help for Geratrics Scheme in the offing ie. prop up Geriatrics wealth and give Millennials a good rogering. And we have the journos screaming for rate cuts when we are double CPI target.

 

Markets given up on the idea of a 2% target...well with likes of  Swati Dinghra in charge of rate setting and Liam Halligan being the Nation's conscience on where rates should be, you bloody bet 

Classic - get the general public to hold the bag.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Quelled surprise, the new issuance of Government debt 1931 4% may be under subscribed and the BOE are allowing the public to buy direct for the first time.

Now if the 2% CPI target was real then 4% would be a steal, but the Markets aren't keen. They know that the BOE is keen on printing and the Government is keen on dreaming up inflationary  schemes to prop up the only thing that matters, namely he housing Market.

 

Who can blame them, we have the 99% Mortgage  Help for Geratrics Scheme in the offing ie. prop up Geriatrics wealth and give Millennials a good rogering. And we have the journos screaming for rate cuts when we are double CPI target.

 

Markets given up on the idea of a 2% target...well with likes of  Swati Dinghra in charge of rate setting and Liam Halligan being the Nation's conscience on where rates should be, you bloody bet 

Dave H reckons that even in the US with the Fed almighty, it's the bond market that calls the shots...in our case, over-supply (Of debt at insufficient rates) and no demand 

[Axeman123]

I think the main market for internet connected tumble driers etc is Asia, Japs/Koreans love all that shit and it has probably set the concept of "luxury" is for their up and coming neighbours in the same way that US railways serving lobster did back in the day. As slowly dying markets we in the west should expect products etc sold to be increasingly optimised for the up and coming SE Asian etc regional tastes.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

internet connected tumble driers

As long as PUTLER doesn't weaponise them like he did washing machines GRRRRRRRRRRRRR PUTLER 

[Alex]

7 minutes ago, Errol said:

Classic - get the general public to hold the bag.

I would imagine the Venn diagram of "knows how to buy UK government bonds" and "doesn't realise why that's a bad idea" is quite small.

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, Errol said:

Classic - get the general public to hold the bag.

That was my thought when I saw it posted yesterday, international investors arnt interested, so get the mug tax payers to hold the crap instead.

They must think we are fucking stupid.

[AlfredTheLittle]

19 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

That was my thought when I saw it posted yesterday, international investors arnt interested, so get the mug tax payers to hold the crap instead.

They must think we are fucking stupid.

As a collective we are fucking stupid 

[Errol]

British American Tobacco revealed on Wednesday that non-executive director Karen Guerra had acquired 4,150 ordinary shares in the FTSE 100-listed tobacco giant.
Guerra, who was appointed to the board of BATS in September 2020, purchased the shares at an average price of 2,380.00p each, for a total value of £98,770.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

British American Tobacco revealed on Wednesday that non-executive director Karen Guerra had acquired 4,150 ordinary shares in the FTSE 100-listed tobacco giant.
Guerra, who was appointed to the board of BATS in September 2020, purchased the shares at an average price of 2,380.00p each, for a total value of £98,770.

karen?

does karen smoke?

chicken feed init.

Shes noo karaoke singer bro.

Edited February 23 by leonardratso

[ashestoashes]

On 21/02/2024 at 10:08, Loki said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/world-threshold-natural-hydrogen-gold-rush-geologists-say

I really must get around to finding out what the hydro in hydrocarbon means...summink to do wiv wa'er I fink

 

 

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, ashestoashes said:

 

Stick a carbon atom on it to make it easily storable and transportable and it nets out to zero

 

[Transistor Man]

8 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

The writing is already on the wall for semiconductors, we're well into nm feature sizes where Dennard scaling tails off and the economics of ever-greater transistor counts become fiendishly difficult.

Moore’s law continued, but I’d say Dennard scaling finished in 2006.

That was the end of the established scaling rules as laid out by Dennard.

Every 2 years, - all transistor linear dimensions * 1/1.4 

increase doping * 1.4 

supply voltage * 1/1.4 

clock freq * 1.4

Power consumption per circuit function 1/(1.4^2).

power density = 1 (remains the same)

This recipe came to an abrupt end in 2006.

Intel hit the power consumption wall.

Their new prototype chip was called Tejas. When it ran at the spec clock frequency, it consumed 400W.

It had to be canned. They moved to a completely new plan overnight: multi core.

 That was the end of the traditional scaling recipe. From that point, Basically the clock frequency stopped scaling, and  Chips contained more and more dark silicon.

Moore’s law continued though. The important thing is: cost per transistor continued to drop exponentially. 

I don’t see any alternative to semiconductors for information processing. Photonics (light) is great for Interconnecting things. But for the foreseeable future, I can’t see how do you do anything practical without semiconductor electronics.

Edited February 23 by Transistor Man

[JMD]

9 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Thats my entire point. It doesnt matter what the design is or the lofty thoughts, human nature and behaviour take over. You cant change that (although social media has tried and has done - more at the end).

Its like going back through to the original start of this thread. Theres all these great ideas but look at the fundamentals and human behaviour to see how eventually they will be used.
People take the hump when AI bots turn racist. Thats because humans are racist, its only reflecting what is put in, not some idealistic unobtainable trope.
I think theres a lot of truth in Terminator ;-) When skynet becomes self aware it realises humans are the problem and within a half hour tries to eradicate them.

It was always said porn drove technology, selected vhs over beta etc. Theres definitely some truth in that, its a base human urge and those are fundamental.

I remember trying to use US websites in the early 2000s and it was a fucking awful experience, real wild west, popups, self installs all sorts of shite which we never saw over in EU land. I still get fucked off with autoplay videos on things using my bandwidth without my say so. 'Oh and heres another thing before you go'. No, fuck off with your yankee shite. Webpage with 32 reasons why and it takes 64 back clicks to get the fuck out of it.

I was out today and saw a poster with a stat that said 45% of young adults in NI said their mental health deteriorated during lockdown. No coincidence that that was when social media took hold. Social media algorithms affect the brain. They trigger flight or flight or more recently, fight and flight at the same time. Humans have never really had to deal with this before except in wartime and usually under conditions of accompanied physical threat.
Even going back to the chat I had with my surgeon after my carpal tunnel surgery. He said the NHS was getting rid of it as the incidences were being reduced. More to do with fewer people using keyboards and older heavier action keyboards. He said he had (back then) started to see instances of thumb ligament damage he was attributing to swiping actions. He said there was no fix for that. I dont know if thats still true or not but it showed that the changes in technology were a lot quicker than evolution!

I go back again to my oft quoted anecdote about being at a lecture about social media and interaction. The speaker said we shouldnt really be worried about microphones in the house or smartphones listening to us, we should be worried about them building a profile of us or worse, engineering us into a profile where they can predict what we are going to do before we do it.

I remember going to a hypnotist show with my dad when I was a teenager. The type of thing were they get people up on stage and make them do and say stupid/funny things. I always remember my dad laughing at the end and saying to me 'son, one or two of them on that stage I could hypnotise myself'. He was right of course, its just that you dont need to pay money to go to a show to stand up on stage and be hypnotised.

That's a good point about hypnotism. It's amazing that most of the public actually believe that hypnotists posses powers to control and manipulate people. Whereas in reality what's happening is that the hypnotist skillfully selects audience members who already have a (secret/subconscious) desire to publicly exhibit certain behaviours. The hypnotist is a showman and makes the spectacle very entertaining but on a psychological level, for the participants involved, it's actually painfully revealing and rather creepy. 

Derren Brown is excellent at explaining/demonstrating these things, including cold reading etc. I would recommend people to watch his old TV shows.       ...However I was very disappointed to learn that Brown thinks COVID was real. Ok his own father died of covid but he was 80. And surely Derren Brown of all people must have seen through the propaganda of the COVID panic? After all media manipulation of the populace is just a form of hypnotism conducted on a large-scale, where vast masses of personality types have their psychological buttons pressed in order to invoke specific emotions or required reactions.

Edited February 24 by JMD

[sancho panza]

another 'no sh1t sherlock' moent amongst many.Our political eltie scratching their heads whilst we sit and say 'perfectly udnerstandable'

who said two worngs dont make a right?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/23/fertility-rate-slumps-to-record-low-in-slow-burn-crisis/

Fertility rate slumps to record low in ‘slow-burn’ economic crisis

Growth and living standards at risk as UK heads towards a baby bust

The fertility rate in England and Wales has dropped to a record low, with British women having fewer children than at any point since at least 1939 in a “slow-burn” economic crisis.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman of childbearing age will have, dropped to 1.49 in 2022.

The number, which is the lowest in 83 years, comes amid an increasingly political debate about why women are having fewer children.

Many politicians and economists fear that the economy will struggle to grow and living standards will stagnate or decline as the number of older people increases while fewer children are born.

 

To offset the impact of a shrinking working-age population, politicians will be forced to find solutions such as raising the retirement age or allowing greater immigration, he said.

Instead, like many rich countries, the UK is headed for a baby bust as demographers warn that high living costs, nursery fees, house prices and stagnating pay for young people mean rates will likely continue to fall.

The number of children British women have has been in decline for a long time, falling from an average of nearly three in 1964.

[desertorchid]

15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

another 'no sh1t sherlock' moent amongst many.Our political eltie scratching their heads whilst we sit and say 'perfectly udnerstandable'

who said two worngs dont make a right?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/23/fertility-rate-slumps-to-record-low-in-slow-burn-crisis/

Fertility rate slumps to record low in ‘slow-burn’ economic crisis

Growth and living standards at risk as UK heads towards a baby bust

The fertility rate in England and Wales has dropped to a record low, with British women having fewer children than at any point since at least 1939 in a “slow-burn” economic crisis.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman of childbearing age will have, dropped to 1.49 in 2022.

The number, which is the lowest in 83 years, comes amid an increasingly political debate about why women are having fewer children.

Many politicians and economists fear that the economy will struggle to grow and living standards will stagnate or decline as the number of older people increases while fewer children are born.

 

To offset the impact of a shrinking working-age population, politicians will be forced to find solutions such as raising the retirement age or allowing greater immigration, he said.

Instead, like many rich countries, the UK is headed for a baby bust as demographers warn that high living costs, nursery fees, house prices and stagnating pay for young people mean rates will likely continue to fall.

The number of children British women have has been in decline for a long time, falling from an average of nearly three in 1964.

Top Comment:

This country is undergoing a cultural, religious and societal revolution driven by immigration that is anathema to many of its traditional inhabitants. This is the elephant in the room along with economic factors. Thus the prospect of bringing children into such an uncertain future is daunting.

[BurntBread]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

However I was very disappointed to learn that Brown thinks COVID was real.

He is a showman, who creates a spectacle in exchange for money. In that context, the only thing we know is, "Brown says he thinks COVID is real."

I think we have a choice to be disappointed in either his intellect or his morality.

[Onsamui]

Suicide Squad: G7 plot to swipe Russia's frozen assets spells doom for the U.S. dollar

The G7 nations are plotting a new lawfare attack to steal Russia's 300 billion dollars in "frozen" assets, essentially declaring that the dollar and all western banks will pillage and steal whatever they want. If this takes place, the rest of the world will panic sell US dollar holdings and evacuate western banks as quickly as possible, leading to a cascading collapse of the dollar and western economies. Yet the sheer stupidity and arrogance of the West is now pushing G7 nations toward exactly this maneuver. I call it a "suicide squad" move, because if activated, it will lead to the currency and economic suicide of western nations. Full details in today's broadcast, along with a feature interview with Alex Christoforou from The Duran.

[Onsamui]

5 hours ago, desertorchid said:

Top Comment:

This country is undergoing a cultural, religious and societal revolution driven by immigration that is anathema to many of its traditional inhabitants. This is the elephant in the room along with economic factors. Thus the prospect of bringing children into such an uncertain future is daunting.

Nothing to to with the sterilisation property of the mRNA then?

[Errol]

43 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

Suicide Squad: G7 plot to swipe Russia's frozen assets spells doom for the U.S. dollar

The G7 nations are plotting a new lawfare attack to steal Russia's 300 billion dollars in "frozen" assets, essentially declaring that the dollar and all western banks will pillage and steal whatever they want. If this takes place, the rest of the world will panic sell US dollar holdings and evacuate western banks as quickly as possible, leading to a cascading collapse of the dollar and western economies. Yet the sheer stupidity and arrogance of the West is now pushing G7 nations toward exactly this maneuver. I call it a "suicide squad" move, because if activated, it will lead to the currency and economic suicide of western nations. Full details in today's broadcast, along with a feature interview with Alex Christoforou from The Duran.

Russia will also seize any Western assets in Russia - including buildings, factories, IP etc.

Edited February 24 by Errol

[Pip321]

34 minutes ago, Errol said:

Russia will also seize any Western assets in Russia - including buildings, factories, IP etc.

Hopefully Polymetal (remember them) will have sold their assets before this.

It’s a slippery slope but it will create a nice world split….the US will be worse off but at least it will still own Europe. And those EU/UK leaders who are seemingly oblivious….are probably already sorting their assets and homes in the US. Global leaders now no longer represent their citizens in any way, shape or form.

All we can do is save ourselves….and pay as little into the pot as is legally possible. My mortgages really cranked up this year so no profit (again)….all offset by cash/shares in the ISA and SIPP, but unfortunately that’s tax free.

Never mind. At least the West is on the right side of this battle because it says so on the totally independent BBC. 

Once we get over a family illness (it’s be a tough few months) then my intention is to travel and spend.