Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[spygirl]

17 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Moore’s law continued, but I’d say Dennard scaling finished in 2006.

That was the end of the established scaling rules as laid out by Dennard.

Every 2 years, - all transistor linear dimensions * 1/1.4 

increase doping * 1.4 

supply voltage * 1/1.4 

clock freq * 1.4

Power consumption per circuit function 1/(1.4^2).

power density = 1 (remains the same)

This recipe came to an abrupt end in 2006.

Intel hit the power consumption wall.

Their new prototype chip was called Tejas. When it ran at the spec clock frequency, it consumed 400W.

It had to be canned. They moved to a completely new plan overnight: multi core.

 That was the end of the traditional scaling recipe. From that point, Basically the clock frequency stopped scaling, and  Chips contained more and more dark silicon.

Moore’s law continued though. The important thing is: cost per transistor continued to drop exponentially. 

I don’t see any alternative to semiconductors for information processing. Photonics (light) is great for Interconnecting things. But for the foreseeable future, I can’t see how do you do anything practical without semiconductor electronics.

A very long time ago, roughly at this time, a rumour has it that to fulfil a contractual obligation that Intel signed to get a new non x86 architecture into a certain sector ... Intel went ahead and released the new chip which had peak power consumption - all core running hot - close to this.

Allegedly - and I had only brief sight - the cooling system was a work of art/insanity.

The contract did not say anything about cooling ...

Even then then the prototype caught fire.

How in fuck, dunno. The chop was so full of bugs it kept crashing.

 

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Libspero said:

Do you expect that to continue, even with the increasing complexity of chips now?

I feel like I've been a chicken little on this,  but advanced lithography tools are already, what, $200m?   Then the complexity of GAA and moving to backside power?  It feels to me like chips are still getting better,  but the cost to do so is rising faster.  Am I wide of the mark?

My gut feeling is it will be uneconomic to make higher densities well before it becomes unviable.

The only chips that need to be fast and in a small area are Gpus.

All other loads can be divided up across in a single addresses space, joined with a cross bar memory switch , or in seperate address spaces, using a v fast interlink.

This is where Arms low cost n low power use is a killer.

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

This is it. Despite all the hand wringing about immigration etc, this is the fundamental issue.

Who buys the houses? The natives haven't reproduced at replacement rate since 1974 but population has went up 12 - 15 million depending on what count you use

[DurhamBorn]

On 14/02/2024 at 00:42, sancho panza said:

I think their full yrear sare nbound CV.be interesting to see if anythign major ahs changed in terms of balacne

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/download/ssw-AFR22.pdf

On Sibanye,this tends to be the stage of the cycle where they are worth buying,ie when lots of mines go loss making and they impair some assets.Its the same playbook every time.Going through the results it looks like all the SA mines are still profitable just,but the US ones is losing money as is the nickel smelter in France.Iv been buying here,but there is a big chance they go lower yet.I dont think iv ever owned them where i have not been down over 30% at some stage,but then treble.Iv kept back a bunch and would likely buy at $3.50 area if hit.The narrative will be all about platinum and palladium been finished for good due to EVs,but very likely hybrids will be big still for a long time yet.The industry cannot really merge down much here,they did that last cycle,but there might be less coming out of Russia.Its interesting they are investing heavily in the tailings re-process company they bought and expanded.If they ever did want to get into uranium cheaply re-process their tailings would get them very cheap ozs.I suspect they would like to get into copper in Africa,but the Chinese outbid everyone else every time.The west asleep at the wheel on that as usual.

[Plan-b]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

This is it. Despite all the hand wringing about immigration etc, this is the fundamental issue.

Myself and most of my friends are in the "having young kids" stage of life, and the main barrier to having more is the cost of housing and childcare, and the relationship between the two.

I would also say that this is primarily a problem for middle class working people. People on benefits and the very rich don't have the consider the housing / childcare balance in the same way.

For me personally I think the genie is out of the bottle in terms of demographics. My children are mixed race as are many of their friends. The UK is never going back to a single culture / race society with so many kids growing up in mixed households. But most of my generation grew up like that anyway. I don't think it's a reason people aren't having kids.

Hand wringing? to dismiss what has gone on in the west regarding immigration over the years as mere hand wringing is disingenuous at best. Having seen the affect first hand what unfettered immigration, amongst other things, has done to the prospects of indigenous young people for many reasons not just housing, I can tell you there are a lot of very very pissed off people who's kids/ grand kids have been affected. And yes immigration has affected the ability of locals to get a home of their own.

I will do my best not comment again @Hardhat and wish you well. I will leave it at that for the sake of this thread.

Edited February 24 by Plan-b

[Hardhat]

14 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Who buys the houses? The natives haven't reproduced at replacement rate since 1974 but population has went up 12 - 15 million depending on what count you use

The same people buy the houses, they just buy them later in life and have higher repayments, both factors that prevent them also paying for childcare or being able to manage on one salary, freeing one partner up to do childcare. Obviously population growth will be a factor but population growth as the sole cause of HPI is well disproven. Availability of credit / BTL etc is what has impacted the marginal buyer.

[MightyTharg]

“but no-one mentioned the elephant in the room ie the cost of housing”

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

This is it. Despite all the hand wringing about immigration etc, this is the fundamental issue.

…
My children are mixed race as are many of their friends. The UK is never going back to a single culture / race society with so many kids growing up in mixed households.

It’s the same problem. The immigrant scum (and the coal-burning whores and their male equivalents) are driving up the price of housing. Cheered on by the WEF encouraging it (the new Genocide tube line for example).

[marceau]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

 

For me personally I think the genie is out of the bottle in terms of demographics. My children are mixed race as are many of their friends. The UK is never going back to a single culture / race society with so many kids growing up in mixed households. But most of my generation grew up like that anyway. I don't think it's a reason people aren't having kids.

Well you would think that wouldn't you. Vested interest isn't just the preserve of politicians.

[Hardhat]

2 minutes ago, marceau said:

Well you would think that wouldn't you. Vested interest isn't just the preserve of politicians.

Rude tbh

 

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

The UK is never going back to a single culture / race society with so many kids growing up in mixed households.

This means the UK does not exist. You can't have a unified, cohesive country formed in this way. Diversity + proximity = war.

And I'm not sure where you live, but I've never even encountered a mixed race partnership or mixed race children. 

[RJT1979]

23 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Rude tbh

 

Its true though

[Axeman123]

 

35 minutes ago, Errol said:

I've never even encountered a mixed race partnership or mixed race children. 

You see a lot more of one than the other IME...

vs

Edited February 24 by Axeman123
doubled

[Hardhat]

Cool, look I didn't mean to trigger everyone, just my experience, used to feel ok sharing that here as the forum was fairly level headed. YMMV etc. It's Saturday night and I cba.

[Chewing Grass]

54 minutes ago, Errol said:

And I'm not sure where you live, but I've never even encountered a mixed race partnership or mixed race children. 

There are a couple in me 'n' Mrs Chewies circle of friends, their son is butt ugly and their daughter will go very hairy.

Indian Father and English mother whose mother in turn was Russian.

The kids are way darker than their dad.... which surprises me.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Rude tbh

 

You have to take the rough with the smooth on here I’m afraid. It’s a ‘right’ centric forum after all.

Just like my unpopular views on CBDCs and crypto. 

It’s the passion for some to save the country to return the UK to yesteryear of where it once was, but it’s all too late for that. All the western countries are equally fucked.

That’s why I couldn’t care less about all that which is divisive. The enemy are the enablers who are pulling the strings.

 

[Ma2]

On the subject of AI it’s no longer just chatGPT plagiarising the web to get your homework done or a bit of fun getting it to write a song in the style of a pirate. 
 

The AI models are able to create videos now from text or speech. It still has a long way to go of course and needs a human handler to approve the output but it learns from the human input. 
 

https://openai.com/sora?video=italian-pup
 

https://openai.com/sora?video=italian-pup

Imagine the BBC wants a new woke cartoon. They don’t need a writer or an animator or any sub-con. Just ask the AI and they produce it. Politics changed the following week? No problem just ask AI to change it and you don’t have to pay any extra getting anything rewritten or reanimated. 
 

Imagine a company wants a new advertising campaign. No need for the expense of a proper agency. Just your own department asking AI to produce an advert for tv, one for radio, one for the digital billboards etc.

AI can monitor sales and feedback on social media in real time. 
AI can also tinker with the ads in real time dependent on these metrics so the last advert that went out could be changed and out for the next ad break. Learning continually how sales and perception are affected by the ads. 
That’s a lot of money saved and jobs gone   

I don’t know how good it can become but the way it has moved even over the last year is impressive. 

check https://openai.com/sora for some more Videos produced, there are 2 other companies I know of doing the same thing. 

[Calcutta]

Leave the guy's kids alone ffs. Mass Immigration is a political and financial discussion, just because somebody happens to be a slightly different shade of brown means fuck all on a personal level. 

I've had to deal with some of the most disgusting people you could ever meet, latchkey rapists, date rapists, pedophiles, daughter rapers,  the lowest of the low.

All of them native British.

I've met some right cunt black guys, and I see the muzzers on the telly blowing shit up, don't get me wrong.

Mass immigration in the last 20 years has definitely diminished the British national pride, there is nobody willing to go and fight for this country anymore. Good. The same people who sent our forefathers to be slaughtered in the Somme are the same people who are convincing our children to try and change fucking gender. 

The problem is political and economic, not racial.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

But not the companies themselves. The 40 year disinflation cycle reversion into inflation isn’t going to be kind to these companies at a retail consumer level.

We are reaching a leveling off period in the s-curve in tech (recessions make people make do with last years model, get a device repaired etc etc)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle

The market eventually gets saturated. Organisations are jumping on the cloud/AI remote working bandwagon which is keeping the party pumping.

Dont get me wrong that is most certainly the direction of the future. We’re going back to the mainframe days of the 80’s to do the processing heavy lifting with front ends requiring minimal power requirements for battery life gains.

To me it’s the perfect embodiment of Cisco and the dot com. Cisco did nothing wrong, its networking infrastructure equipment was built into everywhere. It produced profit every quarter. 

But markets follow the Gartner Hype Cycle. 
 

Appliances used to be made to last, the disinflation cycle made that slowly disappear into a throw away society as product manufacturer was outsourced as cheaply as possible. Repair shops and parts were no longer needed.

The opposite of this is true in Asia, which I’ve spoken about before. They would think nothing at a local phone shop of using a reworking station to remove a memory chip for example to re-ball and solder an upgraded one rather than throw a phone/laptop (with soldered SSDs) and buy a new device.

As I said previously I like top end Sony TVs. I would never invest in them. You have half arsed technology like 3D, curved screens etc etc which all come and go. CRT to plasma/LCD was a real world leap. OLED was the peak (but expensive to produce) and now Sony is going down the path of mini-LED at the expense of contrast and black levels (which are much cheaper to produce) and sales will most likely fall because AV nuts won’t buy them.

That’s an example of the s-curve. 

The second charts highlights a key issue for house prices…..tampering by governments (not least the numerous Help to Sell Schemes) is driving crazy prices.

I will repeat from another thread that in 1986 I bought and would have given everything we had for a house. We had no tv for 2 years, no house phone and really really struggled for 7 years. So the demand was massive. 

A milkman would buy a detached 3 bed on one wage…..that house in our town is now £400k. 

So why was it such demand and buying a struggle for me but the house much better value than today…..and the answer was finance. 3x plus 1, no exception, no interest only, no schemes and if it was too much for local buyers….it didn’t sell. So although it was tough it was achievable….now it’s just too high. 

The Housing Act and then interest only loans, then higher multiples, then Help to Buy Loans, Stamp Duty holidays, Help to Buy Savings accounts, etc etc have just made these larger prices achievable. They monetised the housing market, increased GDP, made bankers richer and fucked everyone.

For me, this is the fundamental issue….there has always been demand to buy, but price was pinned back with at least some element of market forces. Now it’s stacked to just drive prices. 

I appreciate this isn’t the ONLY thing….but it’s the key driver. It helps GDP, so the government can more money and piss it against a wall. 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

Edited February 24 by Pip321

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, Ma2 said:

On the subject of AI it’s no longer just chatGPT plagiarising the web to get your homework done or a bit of fun getting it to write a song in the style of a pirate. 
 

The AI models are able to create videos now from text or speech. It still has a long way to go of course and needs a human handler to approve the output but it learns from the human input. 
 

https://openai.com/sora?video=italian-pup
 

https://openai.com/sora?video=italian-pup

Imagine the BBC wants a new woke cartoon. They don’t need a writer or an animator or any sub-con. Just ask the AI and they produce it. Politics changed the following week? No problem just ask AI to change it and you don’t have to pay any extra getting anything rewritten or reanimated. 
 

Imagine a company wants a new advertising campaign. No need for the expense of a proper agency. Just your own department asking AI to produce an advert for tv, one for radio, one for the digital billboards etc.

AI can monitor sales and feedback on social media in real time. 
AI can also tinker with the ads in real time dependent on these metrics so the last advert that went out could be changed and out for the next ad break. Learning continually how sales and perception are affected by the ads. 
That’s a lot of money saved and jobs gone   

I don’t know how good it can become but the way it has moved even over the last year is impressive. 

check https://openai.com/sora for some more Videos produced, there are 2 other companies I know of doing the same thing. 

Or alternatively just get AI to make a video of some nasty Russians raping and pillaging to get the plebs onside an escalation.

Excellent propaganda prospects.

 

[Ma2]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Or alternatively just get AI to make a video of some nasty Russians raping and pillaging to get the plebs onside an escalation.

Excellent propaganda prospects.

Yes. 100%. The fully automated BBC will be producing it from the narrative fed to it. 
 

I remember watching that bbc drama the capture and wondered how long it would be before that kind of thing would be quick and cheap to produce. No one will believe anything and that’s the aim. 

[Loki]

There will be wars and AI generated wars

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

There will be wars and AI generated wars

Exactly what Orwell predicted.

[onlyme]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

The same people buy the houses, they just buy them later in life and have higher repayments, both factors that prevent them also paying for childcare or being able to manage on one salary, freeing one partner up to do childcare. Obviously population growth will be a factor but population growth as the sole cause of HPI is well disproven. Availability of credit / BTL etc is what has impacted the marginal buyer.

BTL would largely have been a dead duck without the immigration (and migrant workforces), they go hand in hand, one feeding off the other. You can only undercut the local workforce if you can lower you living standards, reduce your outgoings, raise the occupancy rate (to and obvice overcrowding levels) and if returning home with sums of money deprive the economy of money that would have otherwise crculated locally. Even worse are the the effects when BTL is used to house millions on taxpeyer money where the very same poeple who cannot afford their own house are stumping up tax for others to do so whilt contributiong nothing.

Student BTL might still have been a thing in Uni towns - for much the same reasons - high occupancy and outbidding traditional couple / family finances.

[feed]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

This means the UK does not exist. You can't have a unified, cohesive country formed in this way. Diversity + proximity = war.

And I'm not sure where you live, but I've never even encountered a mixed race partnership or mixed race children. 

Over the last 25 years or so, I've been to more mixed race weddings than white and without fail they produced more kids.  
white guys marrying 2nd or 3rd generation Indians for the most part, one afro Caribbean.  All lower middle class, with a couple of the guys punching well above their weight.  

Funny, despite the propaganda I don't know any white women with a black guys, but many whites guys with none white woman.   

Buy you're right, the UK that people still think exists, it doesn't.  It hasn't for some time now.

This is south east, btw.  London/Essex 
 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Leave the guy's kids alone ffs. Mass Immigration is a political and financial discussion, just because somebody happens to be a slightly different shade of brown means fuck all on a personal level. 

I've had to deal with some of the most disgusting people you could ever meet, latchkey rapists, date rapists, pedophiles, daughter rapers,  the lowest of the low.

All of them native British.

I've met some right cunt black guys, and I see the muzzers on the telly blowing shit up, don't get me wrong.

Mass immigration in the last 20 years has definitely diminished the British national pride, there is nobody willing to go and fight for this country anymore. Good. The same people who sent our forefathers to be slaughtered in the Somme are the same people who are convincing our children to try and change fucking gender. 

The problem is political and economic, not racial.

I’ve nothing in common with there parents the kids will intergrate better after 3 generations.but we are still getting swamped with new arrivals. The sense of entitlement is huge one refused to do observations because the patient has a therapy dog . It’s against my religion to be around dogs unclean .I’m like what about saluke dogs Arabs use em for hunting. I’m like it’s got a muzzle and you won’t be within 6ft of it …. Unclean unclean im

like more like it’s because she records carers asleep . Then my Somali friend starts humming the tune to if looks could kill by heart