Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[King Penda]

It’s geting silly I’ve earnt just under 26k so far this year I’d guess I will earn another 3k before the end of the tax year.now I did not start work basicly till June (just did the odd shift). That’s a potential £4800 not earnt .I can’t say for certain how much interest a year I’m getting but next month it will hit 270 quid obviously it goes up a bit every month has I’m saving but that’s potentially another 3k to be eyed up for tax .now in april

 I might get close to a quid an hour more in pay let’s say I’m still doing daft hours even at 50 a week that’s potentially another 2600 a year. In theory that’s about 39600 wtf when is the next tax bracket 40k ? 

Edited February 27 by King Penda

[Bobthebuilder]

59 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s geting silly I’ve earnt just under 26k so far this year I’d guess I will earn another 3k before the end of the tax year.now I did not start work basicly till June (just did the odd shift). That’s a potential £4800 not earnt .I can’t say for certain how much interest a year I’m getting but next month it will hit 270 quid obviously it goes up a bit every month has I’m saving but that’s potentially another 3k to be eyed up for tax .now in april

 I might get close to a quid an hour more in pay let’s say I’m still doing daft hours even at 50 a week that’s potentially another 2600 a year. In theory that’s about 39600 wtf when is the next tax bracket 40k ? 

Use your ISA allowance, it soon adds up.

I would usually be in bed by now, but waiting for the milk man delivers early hours here Didn't have to worry about it before just opened the door in the morning, But its been stolen a few times recently so have to keep a midnight watch.

[King Penda]

13 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Use your ISA allowance, it soon adds up.

I would usually be in bed by now, but waiting for the milk man delivers early hours here Didn't have to worry about it before just opened the door in the morning, But its been stolen a few times recently so have to keep a midnight watch.

No point I’m buying another house so I’ve got 50k at 5.25% and 14 at 4% and a bit earning fuck all .I just need to get my arse in gear and actually do something.but what is the question ,do I buy outright possably a budget of 147k or borrow 30k and a higher budget em . It’s a nice quandary to be in .that’s the repayment if I borrow 30k over 9 years 

[montecristo]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I agree,but its the one number that turns the roadmap off vertical.We are 100% certain of a disaster on the present path and it needs a big change,something really big.Tax more wont do it,its making it worse because they are taxing the low paid not on bennies etc.

So it looks like the tories are just going to carry on as before.  No real tax cuts and no spending cuts.  Jesus wept.

"According to The Times, the Chancellor has shelved planned cuts to income tax and stamp duty after official forecasts indicated he will have less money to spend than expected.

Mr Hunt assured colleagues on Monday night that he would prioritise “smart tax cuts” that reward working people, Bloomberg reported.

His remarks to the One Nation Conservatives came after that group urged him to bring voters onto the party’s side by addressing cost-of-living concerns with a Spring Budget that would “cut taxes, drive growth and put more money back into hardworking, ordinary people’s pockets”.

Mr Hunt had already indicated he would not be able to make big tax cuts because he would not have the “room” he had in the Autumn Statement when national insurance was cut from 12p to 10p.

It is expected that on March 6 he will announce an additional one percentage point reduction to workers’ national insurance, at a cost of about £4.5 billion a year. A further freeze on fuel duty is also reportedly a likely option."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/27/jeremy-hunt-cuts-national-insurance-vape-tax-budget/#Echobox=1709012159-1

[Onsamui]

“Who Owns the World?” A Small Group of Big Money - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for Research on Globalization  WEF’s Chairman, Klaus Schwab’s top advisor, Israeli Professor, Yuval Noah Harari, asks openly what to do with the “useless eaters” when their “raison d’être” has ben replaced by Artificial Intelligence (AI). Giving them a base salary for (temporary) survival, getting them hooked on violent video games to prep them for the future, and to let them gradually “disappear”? 

[Red Debt Redemption]

4 hours ago, King Penda said:

No point I’m buying another house so I’ve got 50k at 5.25% and 14 at 4% and a bit earning fuck all .I just need to get my arse in gear and actually do something.but what is the question ,do I buy outright possably a budget of 147k or borrow 30k and a higher budget em . It’s a nice quandary to be in .that’s the repayment if I borrow 30k over 9 years 

You'll pay tax on the interest if its above £1000 (£250 if over 51k income) and not in some sort of tax shield like an isa cash or stocks etc. 20k per year so if you've not been doing it you've lost out on those.

Edited February 27 by Red Debt Redemption

[jamtomorrow]

Saw this nice explainer on the Forgemasters EB welding "game changer".

The crux is the sheer thickness of the pressure vessels, and current fabrication techniques with TIG requiring numerous passes of weld->inspect->heat-treat.

This is how the finished TIG-based welds look (which is superceded by a single EB pass) -

I can see why it's being called a gsme-changer. Spells big trouble for my relationship with my RR shares, I'm thinking of asking them to marry me.

Here is the thread -

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

Dominos starting to fall 

[Pip321]

5 hours ago, King Penda said:

No point I’m buying another house so I’ve got 50k at 5.25% and 14 at 4% and a bit earning fuck all .I just need to get my arse in gear and actually do something.but what is the question ,do I buy outright possably a budget of 147k or borrow 30k and a higher budget em . It’s a nice quandary to be in .that’s the repayment if I borrow 30k over 9 years 

 

56 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

You'll pay tax on the interest if its above £1000 (£250 if over 51k income) and not in some sort of tax shield like an isa cash or stocks etc. 20k per year so if you've not been doing it you've lost out on those.

Agree with @Red Debt Redemption

I would be wary of ignoring the ISA allowance….in a world where Martin Lewis had been telling everyone for years not to bother with ISAs (because they paid 0.5%, and non ISAs paid 0.7%) it’s worth bearing in mind things change.

If you earn 5% on £50k that’s £2500 plus another £500 on that other account, that’s £3000 and some is going to get taxed.

Instant access (should you need access to buy that house) with Virgin at 5.09%. 

Not personal advice because it is very individual and lots of factors….but what if the house purchase is delayed or more likely next tax year some bird gives you £200k for services rendered 😂…..then those missed ISA allowances have gone.

My experience is I have used ISAs since they were invented….and for fear of having a funny meme with a gloating man doing a beard thingy 😂…..its the one thing where I am now feeling very smug # because there is a chunk of money in them. 

#Not least because my savings are mainly not being taxed because I don’t want to support this shower of shite who will spend my money on something that no longer represents me or the UK population. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, montecristo said:

So it looks like the tories are just going to carry on as before.  No real tax cuts and no spending cuts.  Jesus wept.

"According to The Times, the Chancellor has shelved planned cuts to income tax and stamp duty after official forecasts indicated he will have less money to spend than expected.

Mr Hunt assured colleagues on Monday night that he would prioritise “smart tax cuts” that reward working people, Bloomberg reported.

His remarks to the One Nation Conservatives came after that group urged him to bring voters onto the party’s side by addressing cost-of-living concerns with a Spring Budget that would “cut taxes, drive growth and put more money back into hardworking, ordinary people’s pockets”.

Mr Hunt had already indicated he would not be able to make big tax cuts because he would not have the “room” he had in the Autumn Statement when national insurance was cut from 12p to 10p.

It is expected that on March 6 he will announce an additional one percentage point reduction to workers’ national insurance, at a cost of about £4.5 billion a year. A further freeze on fuel duty is also reportedly a likely option."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/27/jeremy-hunt-cuts-national-insurance-vape-tax-budget/#Echobox=1709012159-1

He is using NI because only workers gain.The tax allowance frozen is now obvious to capture pension income.He is using NI cuts so workers get the same as an increasing tax allowance,but retired etc lose out.I can understand why,but doing it this way to capture back some of the public sector pension increases is also hitting much lower pension privte sector workers.There will be huge political pressure as well once the state pension hits the tax allowance,but that will be Labour problem.

[DurhamBorn]

11 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

The problem is they wouldn't be "taxing" benefits, would they?  The state would just be pretending to withhold some of the money it would otherwise have handed over. 

(Not a single state employee pays any income tax or NI - the state just never hands over 20% or 40% of the quoted salary.  Public sector tax is all just pretend.)

Granted, the benefits bill would drop by 20% all else being equal, but they'd still tax the private sector the same amounts as now and waste the 20%.

I only run the numbers and roadmap the numbers.It turned it from where it is now,vertical.They have to pretend,its the system we are in.I cannot roadmap a system we are not in.Things are so out of control it needs huge reform and cuts,we wont get,but that would buy them time and be an easier sell.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, King Penda said:

It’s geting silly I’ve earnt just under 26k so far this year I’d guess I will earn another 3k before the end of the tax year.now I did not start work basicly till June (just did the odd shift). That’s a potential £4800 not earnt .I can’t say for certain how much interest a year I’m getting but next month it will hit 270 quid obviously it goes up a bit every month has I’m saving but that’s potentially another 3k to be eyed up for tax .now in april

 I might get close to a quid an hour more in pay let’s say I’m still doing daft hours even at 50 a week that’s potentially another 2600 a year. In theory that’s about 39600 wtf when is the next tax bracket 40k ? 

Its never,open a SIPP .

[Colliedog]

12 hours ago, Pip321 said:

A really really posh part of Yorkshire. Come on….you know you want to 😂😂

That has more pot holes than Blackburn Lancashire 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is using NI because only workers gain.The tax allowance frozen is now obvious to capture pension income.He is using NI cuts so workers get the same as an increasing tax allowance,but retired etc lose out.I can understand why,but doing it this way to capture back some of the public sector pension increases is also hitting much lower pension privte sector workers.There will be huge political pressure as well once the state pension hits the tax allowance,but that will be Labour problem.

That happens soon. Did the basic maths on that when they increased the NI allowance last time. Most likely they will keep a small buffer between the pension and tax - something almost symbolic like £700. Something to consider for those looking to pay for extra pension qualifying NI years. Are you effectively going to be taxed 20% or more on that? Adds 25% minimum to the repayment time if it will all be taxed due to other income.

[darkmarket]

I think the persistant arbitrage on Bitcoin/GBP significant enough for a mention in this thread.

The current price at the moment of writing is ~$56600 and ~£44570 on Bitstamp. However, the GBP pair is thinly traded on that exchange. On the most heavily traded exchange, Coinbase, the price is ~£44250, leaving an arbitrage of over £300.

The Bitcoin industry now features major global market makers who take advantage of situations like this, so the implication is that they are not able to send GBP to the exchanges - even Coinbase, the most compliant and a publicly-listed company worth $47bn. That implies an unreported, but serious, example of a capital control on what remains one of the world's major currencies.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I think the persistant arbitrage on Bitcoin/GBP significant enough for a mention in this thread.

The current price at the moment of writing is ~$56600 and ~£44570 on Bitstamp. However, the GBP pair is thinly traded on that exchange. On the most heavily traded exchange, Coinbase, the price is ~£44250, leaving an arbitrage of over £300.

The Bitcoin industry now features major global market makers who take advantage of situations like this, so the implication is that they are not able to send GBP to the exchanges - even Coinbase, the most compliant and a publicly-listed company worth $47bn. That implies an unreported, but serious, example of a capital control on what remains one of the world's major currencies.

Getting money out of bitcoin is one of the big problems with it.

[darkmarket]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Getting money out of bitcoin is one of the big problems with it.

On almost every other currency pair, it's absolutely not. The major exception is the Chinese Yuan. Daily liquidity is in the billions of dollars so at an individual level, five- and six-figure orders can be filled even without using advanced order types.

The GBP situation is highly unusual.

[Ma2]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Getting money out of bitcoin is one of the big problems with it.

I have a Coinbase Visa card, spend bitcoin down the shops. They pocket the spread. Now I know why they offer it 😊

Same with gold, can spend it down the shops with Glint Mastercard

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

On almost every other currency pair, it's absolutely not. The major exception is the Chinese Yuan. Daily liquidity is in the billions of dollars so at an individual level, five- and six-figure orders can be filled even without using advanced order types.

The GBP situation is highly unusual.

I meant in the future as a private investor. You already have to do verification. I agree it is strange that institutions cannot take advantage of a decent size arbitrage opportunity and close it.

[MrFanciful]

14 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

I have a Coinbase Visa card, spend bitcoin down the shops. They pocket the spread. Now I know why they offer it 😊

Same with gold, can spend it down the shops with Glint Mastercard

You're still spending pounds though. The transaction is simply telling Visa to send pounds to the shop and Coinbase to convert crypto to pounds and send it to Visa.

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

On almost every other currency pair, it's absolutely not. The major exception is the Chinese Yuan. Daily liquidity is in the billions of dollars so at an individual level, five- and six-figure orders can be filled even without using advanced order types.

The GBP situation is highly unusual.

Looking at the state of the UK sterling will need rates 2.6% higher than other relative economies,rising to 4.6% higher later in the cycle unless they sort out spending/immigration/pensions etc if it is to lose real value at around 2% a year.Without those rates currency control will be needed to stop a run.Pretty much half of young people are trying not to ever work due to bennies.Massive structural problems built in with no escape valve.

[Ma2]

25 minutes ago, MrFanciful said:

You're still spending pounds though. The transaction is simply telling Visa to send pounds to the shop and Coinbase to convert crypto to pounds and send it to Visa.

Yea 100% agree this is the mechanism behind it. I was just sharing my experience of how easy I’d found it to spend Bitcoin with @Yadda yadda yadda
Of course that can change very quickly …

[darkmarket]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Looking at the state of the UK sterling will need rates 2.6% higher than other relative economies,rising to 4.6% higher later in the cycle unless they sort out spending/immigration/pensions etc if it is to lose real value at around 2% a year.Without those rates currency control will be needed to stop a run.Pretty much half of young people are trying not to ever work due to bennies.Massive structural problems built in with no escape valve.

I strongly agree, and I suspect the implications of rates at that level are simply too unpalatable and so there will be continued attempts to quietly introduce capital controls under flimsy pretexts. To have this ugly arbitrage persist in the global capital of FX trading settlement is disturbing.

The official regulations come from the BoE via the FCA, the latest being a clear attempt to introduce friction and minimise selling of GBP. Worse, it looks like while those were implemented openly, the banking cartel has silently gone much farther, applying extra-legal and extra-regulatory restrictions to major institutions.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

I think the persistant arbitrage on Bitcoin/GBP significant enough for a mention in this thread.

The current price at the moment of writing is ~$56600 and ~£44570 on Bitstamp. However, the GBP pair is thinly traded on that exchange. On the most heavily traded exchange, Coinbase, the price is ~£44250, leaving an arbitrage of over £300.

The Bitcoin industry now features major global market makers who take advantage of situations like this, so the implication is that they are not able to send GBP to the exchanges - even Coinbase, the most compliant and a publicly-listed company worth $47bn. That implies an unreported, but serious, example of a capital control on what remains one of the world's major currencies.

To be honest how many people with ~45k gbp liquid would risk transmitting it to and from some dodgy exchanges for a mere 300 gbp profit? (using 1 whole btc as an example) It sounds like the definition of pennies in front of a steam roller to me, 0.6% gain vs 100% potential loss. Transmitting that 45k to buy and hold in hopes of a ten bagger obviously is a different calculation.

The pain in the arse factor of actually getting fiat onto and off exchanges, transaction limits applied to this by banks, and the potential to lose your bank accounts by association with crypto are likely what is holding people back. You could argue that is a form of capital controls of course.