Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[darkmarket]

It strikes me that British people continue to view their Prime Minister as equivalent to the role of a president, and when a party in government nominates a new PM there is a collision between their perspective and reality.

The problem wouldn't arise had the actual head of state been elected, and yet the ridiculous notion that the head of state is purely ceremonial and has no political influence persists.

That raises the issue of a constitution, which should limit the powers of both that head of state and the government. The 'unwritten constitution' has proved completely ineffective. The UK is fundamentally based on so many lies and misunderstandings that nothing can be done until they are acknowledged and addressed.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

All 3 options are superficial procedural fixes to foundational problems. I've watched this guy, and many others like him, miss the point for almost 2 decades now. He's cheerled every single shit Tory idea that kept us in this hole. He barely mentions immigration and never multiracialism, mutli-cult, the legions of trots embedded in the institutions (he misses the fundamental problem with 'the blob', which is friend/enemy, not process), the collapse of religion and identity, the lunacy of transnational 'nations'; or most of all the giant horror-empire sat across the Atlantic.

Tax reform, public sector pensions, whitehall bureaucrats? You can't build a future out of reforming that stuff. Who are we? What do we believe? What do we want? Who is in charge? Do they believe those things? What is the purpose of the state? Everything springs from that, not from fucking tax policy. Heath is yet another British cargo-cultist, but with a blue tie rather than a red one.

The direction of travel is bleak; a deranged clamour to build a better multi-racial work hive. I also see the same clamour from the progressives, as they want tighter more controlled systems to prop up their power. The synthesis is going to be all too easy. As Peter Hitchens once said to Owen Jones - 'I hope you don't get what you wish for, you are going to be so disappointed'. This stuff is worse than what we have now.

 

Edit: Just to be clear, not have a pop at you @SpectrumFX. Heath and his Torygraph shit is the target. They act like we haven't had 14 years of this guff already, it's been a complete disaster.

Absolutely correct. As you say the problems are foundational.

I am not clever enough to find specific solutions, but in terms of 'foundations' i find I am drawn to the landscape of ideas that fall/overlap between (the libertarian) Michael Malice and the (evolutionary biologist) Brett Weinstein. A broad sweep perhaps, but they are both deep thinkers and it helps (me at least) that they are also quiet entertaining. They are also Americans, but i don't know of any similar British commentators (are there some?), however they are at least highly critical of US government, etc.

Edited February 22 by JMD

[Errol]

Uk fish price just jumped. Russia repealed the 1956 act allowing uk ships to fish in the Barents Sea.

[Jay]

45 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm taking the liberty orf reprinting lyn aldens analysis of Exxon.Not out of any wish to deprive her of income but jsut to show that she's really starting to come round fully behind @DurhamBorn thesis fropm when this thread was first started ref the need to start abadoning 60/40 portfolios and engage the infaltion thesis he was suggesting as alikely as govts printed money to solve their problems.

 

and also coming fully behind the path laid out by @Cattle Prod in terms of energy scacity eg the looming depletion of US shale.She also alludes to what CP said some years back about 'the cure for cheap oil is cheap oil' in terms of cpaex cycles and inflation

Lyn is arguing that the oil price rsie from 2000 was offset by deflation from china,but that this wont happen this time when oil rises.

I'll be open that we've doen very well securing the family on the back of understanding the above two psoters theses over the last 5 years.Whats reassuring (and a compliemt to them) is to see someone with the quality of Lyn Alden get fully on board with their work.Shes also effectively confimring her soultion now is the same as DBs from back then that you need to have assets that can price up versus inflation.

Decl:we are prob 30%by booked cost in olilies iirc

 

 

 

Exxon Mobil Deep Dive Analysis

If the re-acceleration of the U.S. economy remains in effect (which seems likely but not certain), then the energy sector is potentially mispriced. The same is true if the recent Chinese stimulus has any significant legs to it.

As a sentiment check, Exxon Mobil (XOM) currently has the highest percentage of short interest in modern history:

This uptick in short interest has also occurred for other energy majors like Chevron (CVX). It’s an industry-wide thing.

Now to be clear, none of these energy majors are short squeeze candidates, because the overall percentage of shorted shares relative to total liquidity is low. However, doubling from 1% of shares being short to 2% of shares being short is an interesting sentiment check.

Investors in aggregate are heavily focused on AI, and are heavily in the disinflation camp. Energy doesn’t matter anymore from many of their perspectives.

I’m bullish on AI and tech in general, except for extreme valuation companies. But at the same time, I think energy is undervalued.

In terms of valuation, Exxon and other energy majors are in great shape. The company has a low valuation of 11x earnings, pays a 3.66% dividend yield with over 40 years of consecutive annual dividend growth, and its balance sheet has a spectacular AA- credit rating.

F.A.S.T. Graphs 101:

• • black line: the current and historical stock price
  • blue line: what the stock price would be if were at its historically average price/earnings ratio
  • orange line: a conservative measure of valuation (a 15x price/earnings in this case)
  • white line: dividends paid that year (and the payout ratio is relative to the orange line)
  • dark/light green: the transition between historical earnings numbers and consensus analysts’ forecast earnings numbers

As a quick comparison, Nvidia (NVDA) is now worth 4.5x as much as Exxon Mobil:

This is despite the fact that Exxon still earns twice as much income and 7.5x as much revenue as Nvidia:

Now, this doesn’t mean I’m bearish on Nvidia per-se. I actually think it’s reasonable for the largest AI hardware company to be worth $1.8 trillion. It might take a few years to grow its fundamentals into that valuation, but it’s not as though I expect that valuation to collapse back down to where it was a few years ago unless they are heavily disrupted in some way. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Nvidia surpass Exxon in annual net income within the next couple years or so.

Instead, I think the market is undervaluing energy. Energy is what enables the cars, the ships, the planes, the electrical grid, the manufacturing, and the processors, to function. And I think the shale oil supply impact from 2015-2020 is largely behind us. Shale oil production is not growing as quickly as it used to, and instead now shale is a structural part of the oil supply/demand balance rather than an entirely new and disruptive source of supply.

A large part of the market is building their portfolios around four decades of disinflation. The 60/40 portfolio is based on the back-test of ever-lower interest rates and ever-higher equity valuations during most peoples’ investing lifetimes. However, I think a better-constructed portfolio should include a slice of inflation protection for this decade.

I am long equities, bitcoin, gold, real estate, cash-equivalents, TIPS, and energy/commodity producers.

-If fiscal deficits and money supply keep growing and consumer price inflation does not (either thanks to low energy costs or high AI productivity growth rates), then the equities and bitcoin should do very well. This is growth without major inflation.

-If fiscal deficits and money supply keep growing but consumer price inflation gets triggered to the upside, likely due to limited energy capex and substantial energy demand, then I’m happy to be long the energy sector at 12x earnings or less with strong balance sheets and decades of consecutive annual dividend growth. It’s a positive carry hedge against the latter outcome.

Historically, all major inflation spikes in the modern era have occurred alongside a rapidly rising oil price. Oil tends to go through capex cycles, and either periods of heightened demand or supply constraints (generally associated with war or major dollar index downcycles) can cause a major price spike and an associated capex cycle to resolve it. The following chart shows the five-year rolling percent change in both oil and CPI:

The oil price spike of the 2000s decade had the least inflation associated with it, and this fact was largely due to China and globalization. The globally deflationary effects from China ramping up their manufacturing capability, and with much lower costs than those of developed countries, helped to offset the otherwise inflationary effects of rapid oil price increases in that decade.

If we were to see another major oil price spike and capex cycle within the next decade, it’s unlikely that China or other manufacturing hubs would be able to offset it this time, although productivity efficiencies from AI might be able to offset some of it. I would definitely want to have some oil and gas exposure in that environment.

Importantly, even without a major oil price increase, energy companies are currently inexpensive, well-capitalized, profitable dividend-payers at current oil prices as a baseline.

The Buffett Effect

Warren Buffett in recent quarters seems to have a similar energy bull theme. Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F filing showed that they have been trimming their Apple (AAPL) position and adding to their already-large Chevron (CVX) and Occidental (OXY) positions. Adding to their existing energy names has been a theme for them for several quarters recently. When in doubt, they seem to just throw more cash into energy.

Back in 2020, Buffett made an excellent investment. His company Berkshire sold yen-denominated bonds, and bought large stakes in the five biggest Japanese trading houses. These companies known as the “Soga shosha” are unique Japanese-style conglomerates that engage in all sorts of commodity-related and supply chain activities. Berkshire has been holding them ever since as long-term investments and dividend-payers, and they have outperformed broad Japanese equities and the S&P 500, even in dollar terms let alone in yen terms.

I’ve been long four of the five of them as well, and previously had some of them in the No Limits portfolio until I trimmed them out of that portfolio due to major gains.

I think Buffett sees similar value in the energy companies today as he saw in the Soga shosha companies four years ago. The shares of energy producers are cheap, and in particular they are basically short positions on currency and long positions on scarcer assets like hydrocarbon deposits and infrastructure. This is because most of them have liabilities denominated in long-term corporate bonds with low fixed rates, and they hold substantial cash-equivalents in variable-rate securities like T-bills. So if interest rates stay high or even head higher, they are in the opposite position that banks are in: they earn more interest income.

 

Nvidia had its results yesterday and they were blow out..incredible performance..infact it is up 14% pre market…market value 1.8 trillion dollars..

I am getting close to shorting it…a great company but valuations are now extreme..another 5% and I pull the trigger..

oil companies have done well and pay dividends..I don’t expect a lot of price appreciation but will happily collect the dividends and re allocate or just collect interest on the dividends..be lucky..

[darkmarket]

6 minutes ago, Errol said:

Uk fish price just jumped. Russia repealed the 1956 act allowing uk ships to fish in the Barents Sea.

That will need to be enforced and I expect we'll hear about it each time that happens. The isolation of the UK continues.

Quote

Commenting on the legislation, Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin said that by tearing up the agreement Russia was returning to its own possession the fish that the UK had been consuming for decades.  

“He [President Vladimir Putin] returned our fish to us, because the English, shameless, had been eating it for 68 years. They have imposed sanctions on us, while they themselves make up 40% of their diet, their fish menu, from our cod. Let them now lose some weight,” Volodin said.  

A Sky News report from last year claimed that up to 40% of the cod and haddock consumed in the UK comes from Russia.

 

https://www.rt.com/business/592871-russia-uk-fishing-agreement-over/

[Errol]

Make no mistake- the Russians will enforce this. 

[Mandalorian]

12 hours ago, JMD said:

 - it's just that the thought of Starmer taking over before year end is I think a truly sickening prospect.

Why?  It won't make any difference at all beyond some tinkering round the edges.

As a voter, you are allowed New Labour (red variant) or New Labour (blue variant).  Choose anything else and it will be removed by vested interests who are really in charge.

They did it with Truss. 

Corbyn wouldn't have managed his first full day before he was kicked out and some Blairalike put in his place.

[onlyme]

17 minutes ago, Jay said:

Nvidia had its results yesterday and they were blow out..incredible performance..infact it is up 14% pre market…market value 1.8 trillion dollars..

I am getting close to shorting it…a great company but valuations are now extreme..another 5% and I pull the trigger..

oil companies have done well and pay dividends..I don’t expect a lot of price appreciation but will happily collect the dividends and re allocate or just collect interest on the dividends..be lucky..

Other companies are coming up with AI chips and solutions but Nvidia really does have a stranglehold on parts of the market - they are the go to hardware (and software environment) at the lower end for anyone looking to host their own solutions and I think companies in particular are going to be much more circumspect in regards who they give their data to on cloud systems. Not calling it a buy but way too risky and unpredictable with the mad markets (especialy if in the near term positive stories are short on the ground across other sectors). 

[Eventually Right]

38 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Be careful - many a person tried to short Tesla at various points between start of 2020 and start of 2022 it went up 1000% before the bubble popped and it fell 80% - it was still very trick riding it down. With massive gains on the way down. 

The problem with shorting is your losses can be infinite. 

Yup-I follow a guy on Twitter, UK investor, obviously a smart guy, he semi retired 3 years ago after having 40% of his portfolio in Argo Blockchain when it went from 10p to £2.80 in about 10 weeks. Anyway, he was shorting NVDA with conviction nearly a year ago, finally gave up, but only after it cost him-by his own admission-the value of a nice house. 
 

It might be tempting, but shorting it through spread betting would be terrifying, as losses open-ended, and the implied vol is so huge that LEAP puts are crazy expensive.

This was sentiment on Twitter yesterday, there must be a Big Kahuna somewhere in the not too distant future! 

Edited February 22 by Eventually Right

[snaga]

20 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Other companies are coming up with AI chips and solutions but Nvidia really does have a stranglehold on parts of the market - they are the go to hardware (and software environment) at the lower end for anyone looking to host their own solutions and I think companies in particular are going to be much more circumspect in regards who they give their data to on cloud systems. Not calling it a buy but way too risky and unpredictable with the mad markets (especialy if in the near term positive stories are short on the ground across other sectors). 

Nvidia could be following Cisco in the dotcom, Cisco grew massively, and were the go to company during the internet explosion. We all know what happenned next. Not calling the top, Nvidia could run up a lot more, but they will eventually pop.

Edited February 22 by snaga

[JMD]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I remember you saying osme 1000's of pages back that council tax would eb the starw that breaks the caemls back because people can't avoid it.Ive been doing some OT but saw rthe brum headline and thought the hive would pick up on it.

Looks like a seismic move to me.

Yes people can prob cover the 20% for the next two eyars with some sacrifices but after that the govt will need to step in and sort out the mess that is local govt.With two more years of declining disposable income,there'll be no road left in 2026

As ive said before leicesterhsire has7 local counilcs,,i city council and one county council,all with CEO's,diversity leads etc.In the age of zoom,it's simply insane not to shrink them into 1 council and save taxpeytrs billions.but they wont until they have to

 

We soemtimes get caught in Brum if we run to Birmingham Childrens or Queen Elizabeth(trauma hospital).We cna get a couple of Cat 1 jobs on the bounce before we can get out.

In short,speaking to the crews there,it's a tough place to work.Staff turnover is huge.

I would imagine the same is with the police.

The police in many Constabularies went down the road of hiring people with social sciences degrees and a deep understanding of diversity issues over the last few years.

Speaking to people I know in the police,a fair few of these recent hires don't last that long past their first kicking.Word is that they're going back to their old methods but time will tell.Alll the guys with expereince who can sign off and get their pension are going.

From my experience of the nightime front line,The police have control of the perimeter and outlying suburbs of most cities (where tehre's a compliant population) but jsut simply don't have the numbers or strength in depth physically and mentally to dominate the ground 24/7 in the inner cities.

The county lines gangs we have in the UK can probably get 30 members on the streets in minutes(and there are mulitple gangs per city),whereas police numbers per 300,000 are probably 15 on the night shift,of whom 2-6 will be at the hosptial with prisoners.

 

 

To be fair,you're not wrong but generally the inner city problems stay there.It's a bit like Afghanistan imho.We went out and dominated the ground in the day with a lot of effort and resources thrown at it.At night ,as we holed up for the night,the Taliban strolled out and took it back.

Same in the UK,these gangs can only project their influence in the areas they dominate.

Brimingham wasn't a place you'd have volunteered to live even before they lsot the pay claim.

The irony being the bulk of the sexual dscirimination was perpetrated by labour run counicls.

I agree the high staff turnover is happening across all the services, trades and professions. I'd like to see today's stats compared to the job retention rates of say 30 years ago, I'm sure the figures would be starkly revealing. 

 

You also mention 'County-Lines' - Tbh I used to think that 'County-Lines' was just another hyped news story until I realised this new phenomenon represented a newly emerging organised crime fraternity. Imo It is a criminal social cancer that is capable of weaving its way into housing estates and deprived areas, and the risk is - with just a few incremental step changes - it becomes as systemic and pervasive as the Italian mafia?   

That might sound overly dramatic but I think It requires a similar hard response, perhaps a bit like what happened back in the 50s in Brighton which was on its way to becoming a no-go area due to criminal gangs (inspiring the novel Brighton Rock, with its violent psychotic character 'Pinkie'). Back then the police came down very hard on the criminals and within just several years the problem was resolved, however are the authorities capable, or even motivated(!), of doing the same today? 

Edited February 22 by JMD

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

You mention high staff turnover and agree it's happening across all the services, trades and professions. I'd like to see today's stats compared to the job retention rates of say 30 years ago, I'm sure the figures would be starkly revealing. 

 

Tbh I used to think that 'County-Lines' was just another hyped news story until I realised this new phenomenon represented a newly emerging organised crime fraternity. Imo It is a criminal social cancer that is capable of weaving its way into housing estates and deprived areas, and the risk is - with just a few incremental step changes - it becomes as systemic and pervasive as the Italian mafia?   

That might sound overly dramatic but I think It requires a similar hard response, perhaps a bit like what happened back in the 50s in Brighton which was on its way to becoming a no-go area due to criminal gangs (inspiring the novel Brighton Rock, with its violent psychotic character 'Pinkie'). Back then the police came down very hard on the criminals and within just several years the problem was resolved, but are the authorities capable, or even motivated(!), of doing the same today? 

And we've had imports of people who bring a new meaning to the term violence.  Not just going out with a nightstick or cosh

[Starsend]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

Make no mistake- the Russians will enforce this. 

How would they know if you just sneaked in at night, nicked all their fish and legged it?

[Starsend]

51 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Be careful - many a person tried to short Tesla at various points between start of 2020 and start of 2022 it went up 1000% before the bubble popped and it fell 80% - it was still very trick riding it down. With massive gains on the way down. 

The problem with shorting is your losses can be infinite. 

Agreed. I've given up shorting, won some, lost far more. You can't short when all the markets are rigged, they're printing a fuckton of money, everything is increasingly topsy-turvy and everybody is going increasingly mental.

[marceau]

34 minutes ago, JMD said:

Absolutely correct. As you say the problems are foundational.

I am not clever enough to find specific solutions, but in terms of 'foundations' i find I am drawn to the landscape of ideas that fall/overlap between (the libertarian) Michael Malice and the (evolutionary biologist) Brett Weinstein. A broad sweep perhaps, but they are both deep thinkers and it helps (me at least) that they are also quiet entertaining. They are also Americans, but i don't know of any similar British commentators (are there some?), however they are at least highly critical of US government, etc.

The time for grand solutions has come and gone, now we just have to struggle in the ruins with what's possible, rather than what's ideal. In the UK you can blame that utter cretin Cameron for that, he pissed away the last bit of time we had trying to implement what effectively amounted to 'conservative' progressivism (yes it's a contradiction in terms, yes plenty of people told Cameron this at the time, yes it was inevitable that it would end in disaster).

For the record I find both Weinstein and Malice to be in GDP-brain camp, and therefore not worth following. You aren't going to find many British commentators on this subject because all the good ones (who were already semi-anonymous) went totally offline after the system went mask-off in 2020. The censorship hit hard in the Uk and nobody who's had any contact with our elites would have been under any doubt as to the consequences of continuing to engage out in the open. Try finding something online by Tom X Hart, for example, a very prolific and intelligent commentator. Gone, and for good reason.

As for what's left; Hitchens gets a lot right, but he's a doomster who offers no solutions. Same for guys like Morgoth, although I do enjoy reading him. Academic Agent has never been anywhere near British power institutions and it shows. The UK based youtube 'right wing' pundits are generally a waste of time, if not outright counterproductive. Substack is good, but again anyone resident in the Uk with a brain will be pulling their punches due to the risks now involved.

People use the term 'ZOG', 'Zionist Occupation Government' to describe the American imperial construct. I don't subscribe to the 'Z' part personally, but the 'O' part is absolutely true, and frequently ignored. These aren't our governments anymore, they are occupying powers, anyone who doesn't adjust their behaviour to this reality is increasingly putting themselves at risk.

[onlyme]

21 minutes ago, snaga said:

Nvidia could be following Cisco in the dotcom, Cisco grew massively, and were the go to company during the internet explosion. We all know what happenned next. Not calling the top, Nvidia could run up a lot more, but they will eventually pop.

True, it could. A trillion dollars of captial tech equipment was put on the scrap pile in the bust to maintain pricing as the rollout of the internet and requirement for ever more connections and bandwidth came to a screeching halt. The fullfilling of the wave of mass adoption by the public of broadband and internet and Y2K soaking up all the software updates/upgrades for years dealt a huge double blow at the time to the tech industry as a whole and specifically the fibre installers and router makers.

Alternatively this is the very beginning of the adoption of AI. like the release of the iphone and apps and only a tiny fraction of the market are even aware of what is required to run the algorithms let alone at the point they actively start using them and are making demands of cloud / local hardware that is required, and it is required, the processing power required is off the scale and quite mindboggling. 

"Did you know it would take roughly ~14 billion Nintendo Entertainment Systems (NES) to match the floating point processing power of a single Nvidia RTX 4090 GPU. Nintendo sold ~62 million consoles worldwide, so every console in the world combined is still only 1/225 as fast!

Just for fun, if you adjust the NES console sale price of $199 in 1985 for inflation which would make it ~$500 in todays money you would have to spend roughly ~7 trillion US dollars to match the computational power of a single Nvidia RTX 4090 GPU These numbers are bananas! "

Edited February 22 by onlyme

[Eventually Right]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

I got into Argo at 5p….and saw Argo go all the way to 330p. One hell of a bubble. Took tax free ISA profits on the way. Much better than bitcoin. It’s back to 20p or so now. I remember @Popuplights doing similar.

Nice-I bought BTC and Ethereum in mid 2020, and did well from it, but it feels like that was "first order thinking", and I should have thought "if bitcoin runs, the miners will explode" would've saved myself some CGT as well.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Be careful - many a person tried to short Tesla at various points between start of 2020 and start of 2022 it went up 1000% before the bubble popped and it fell 80% - it was still very trick riding it down. With massive gains on the way down. 

The problem with shorting is your losses can be infinite. 

You raise good points..am not too worried as the odds will be in my favour…reverse repo and liquidity is getting tight..Chinese attempts to increase it seem muted..waiting to pull the trigger..be lucky..

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

That raises the issue of a constitution, which should limit the powers of both that head of state and the government. The 'unwritten constitution' has proved completely ineffective.

The problem is that any constitution written today would be riddled with the retarded ideals of the day: the right to change gender, the right to claim political asylum, freedom from innequality of outcome, and so on.

Controversially I would say there are currently too many limitations on the ability of govt to implement its actual manifesto, with the blob and civil service having shown that the referendum result etc meant nothing to them. The other problem is that unelected govts doing stuff not in any manifesto are waved through by fellow travellers in the civil service and courts, while those same courts and civil service will do everything in their power to prevent deportations and would do so even if BJ returned with a 200 seat majority on a manifesto comittment to do so.

[Axeman123]

57 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Choose anything else and it will be removed by vested interests who are really in charge.

I think there is still value in forcing them to act openly. The war against Trump was and still is a massive red pill.

[Jay]

22 minutes ago, onlyme said:

True, it could. A trillion dollars of captial tech equipment was put on the scrap pile in the bust to maintain pricing as the rollout of the internet and requirement for ever more connections and bandwidth came to a screeching halt. The fullfilling of the wave of mass adoption by the public of broadband and internet and Y2K soaking up all the software updates/upgrades for years dealt a huge double blow at the time to the tech industry as a whole and specifically the fibre installers and router makers.

Alternatively this is the very beginning of the adoption of AI. like the release of the iphone and apps and only a tiny fraction of the market are even aware of what is required to run the algorithms let alone at the point they actively start using them and are making demands of cloud / local hardware that is required, and it is required, the processing power required is off the scale and quite mindboggling. 

"Did you know it would take roughly ~14 billion Nintendo Entertainment Systems (NES) to match the floating point processing power of a single Nvidia RTX 4090 GPU. Nintendo sold ~62 million consoles worldwide, so every console in the world combined is still only 1/225 as fast!

Just for fun, if you adjust the NES console sale price of $199 in 1985 for inflation which would make it ~$500 in todays money you would have to spend roughly ~7 trillion US dollars to match the computational power of a single Nvidia RTX 4090 GPU These numbers are bananas! "

Or another to look at it is the us fiscal deficit is the value of say 18 Nvidia …you just made me feel a lot more confident with your insight..we can extrapolate until we can’t…

as others say it is a risky thing to do..I might be lucky…

[Mandalorian]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I think there is still value in forcing them to act openly. The war against Trump was and still is a massive red pill.

Do you think the average punter sees that for what it is?

The ones I talk to think he is a crook and believe the shite the BBC tells them.

[Joncrete Cungle]

Indivior planning to move their primary listing to the USA.

[Axeman123]

41 minutes ago, JMD said:

You also mention 'County-Lines' - Tbh I used to think that 'County-Lines' was just another hyped news story until I realised this new phenomenon represented a newly emerging organised crime fraternity. Imo It is a criminal social cancer that is capable of weaving its way into housing estates and deprived areas, and the risk is - with just a few incremental step changes - it becomes as systemic and pervasive as the Italian mafia? 

The organisation is very mafia like, and IMO a symptom of the declining power of the state leading to a power vacuum that they fill. Ordinarily big structures would be too big of a risk for one arrest or snitch unraveling the whole thing, and criminals would gravitate towards a terrorist-like cell structure with information cut-outs to quarantine each cell. The county-lines approach in contrast shows that they feel unencumbered by the police and now expect to effectively take over the inner city areas over large regions of the country. The next step will be for them to replicate both what the Muslims have been doing (intimidating MPs to influence parliament etc), and what the negroes have (mass disorder in response to arrests to deter police repeating them etc), and thereby claim a seat at the top table. Before long you would see county lines organisations getting lucrative govt contractsand becoming another arm of government, in exchange for this protesting on the "wrong" side of an issue would become very dangerous!

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The problem is that any constitution written today would be riddled with the retarded ideals of the day: the right to change gender, the right to claim political asylum, freedom from innequality of outcome, and so on.

Controversially I would say there are currently too many limitations on the ability of govt to implement its actual manifesto, with the blob and civil service having shown that the referendum result etc meant nothing to them. The other problem is that unelected govts doing stuff not in any manifesto are waved through by fellow travellers in the civil service and courts, while those same courts and civil service will do everything in their power to prevent deportations and would do so even if BJ returned with a 200 seat majority on a manifesto comittment to do so.

The way to deal with the civil service is remove their pensions.Its the fact they gain the bigger the disaster whats driving this.They have a deal where the more inflation and diss-location they can create the more they get in income and the more assets they can use that income to buy from those who dont get it and cannot service those assets anymore.Its a heist that is going on.Ordinary people reached a point in the early 90s where they could create income from capital and pass it on to their children.Its that freedom the elites are desperate to remove.They hate us and its war.The problem is,they will only turn on the dozy bennie lot etc once they have destroyed private savings so there is little fightback.Its the biggest threat in our history since Alfred the Great took to Athelney.