Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[JoeDavola]

16 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

It's probably true, I doubt it will be many individual British people. I recon it will be lots of big investor types (serco types) housing associations and a few Asian Fergus slumb lords.

Itll be supported by taxing the middle class who wont criticize immigration. 

Yes I was in the office today for a rare in person meeting with a couple of folk, and we were having a chat beforehand about the housing crisis... I had not mentioned immigration at all yet they both immediately chimed in with something along the lines of "we can't turn assylum seekers away" and "the assylum seekers/immigrants have got nothing to do with it".

People are brainwashed and terrified of being thought of as racist.

Edited April 23 by JoeDavola

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

It's probably true, I doubt it will be many individual British people. I recon it will be lots of big investor types (serco types) housing associations and a few Asian Fergus slumb lords.

Itll be supported by taxing the middle class who wont criticize immigration. 

I find it horrible because you openly support that whole idea as a means to back up your property investment decisions. You might as well sell crack to school kids, for all the long term good its going do for the country.

[With a crooked smile]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I find it horrible because you openly support that whole idea as a means to back up your property investment decisions. You might as well sell crack to school kids, for all the long term good its going do for the country.

i dont particularly - i just get irked by the property subforum and then misbehave a little. we know its fairly true tho, but if we re going to chuck spears about have you ever owned shares in BAT?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

have you ever owned shares in BAT?

Yes, enough to buy a house up your way, but no one needs to smoke or get cancer, and people can choose to invest in it, or smoke it. A house is a basic need and you cannot compare the two.

[With a crooked smile]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, enough to buy a house up your way, but no one needs to smoke or get cancer, and people can choose to invest in it, or smoke it. A house is a basic need and you cannot compare the two.

everyone has there own morality. I personally wouldn't want to invest in something that causes addiction and so much pain - but thats just my view - im quite tolerant of the fact that others have a different view 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, With a crooked smile said:

everyone has there own morality. I personally wouldn't want to invest in something that causes addiction and so much pain - but thats just my view - im quite tolerant of the fact that others have a different view 

Don't try to take the moral high ground, tobacco is a personal choice, farming humans for rent is a different matter altogether, but still as horrible if not worse.

[With a crooked smile]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Don't try to take the moral high ground, tobacco is a personal choice, farming humans for rent is a different matter altogether, but still as horrible if not worse.

im not trying to take the moral high ground - im just saying we have a different perspectives on this and pointing out that i have different red lines to you.

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, enough to buy a house up your way, but no one needs to smoke or get cancer, and people can choose to invest in it, or smoke it. A house is a basic need and you cannot compare the two.

My issue with landlords is that the stupid fuckers aren't greedy enough.

[sancho panza]

whole article because it's hard to try and exclude anything.the data and charts are superb and easy to follow.

Housebuilders discouting mrotgages have kept their volumes steady on 2019 but homeowners reselling are seeing vol drop and failing to adjsut to new mrotgage rates.

interesting times.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/23/prices-of-new-houses-v-existing-houses-why-new-house-sales-held-up-as-existing-house-sales-plunged/

Prices of New Houses v. Existing Houses: Why New-House Sales Held Up as Existing-House Sales Plunged

The median-price of new single-family houses at all stages of construction that were sold in March rose to $430,700, which was down by 1.9% from a year ago and by 18.2% from the peak in October 2022, according to data from the Census Bureau today (blue line in the chart below).

The three-month moving average median price – which irons out some of the very volatile data and includes all revisions – edged up to $419,500, which was down 3.5% year-over-year, down 2.7% from March 2022, down 11.8% from its peak in December 2022, and back where it had first been in November 2021 (red).

These are contract prices that do not include the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns that homebuilders use to stimulate sales in this market of 7%-plus mortgages. Mortgage-rate buydowns lower monthly payments but do not lower the contract price of the house. Prices also don’t include other incentives, such as free upgrades. And homebuilders are building smaller homes at lower price points, with less expensive amenities, to meet the market and make deals. And it’s working; as we’ll see in a moment, sales have been decent, while sales of existing homes are still getting clobbered by high asking prices and high mortgage rates.

Price difference between new and used houses.

Homeowners have totally opened up the market for homebuilders by clinging to their hopes that mortgage rates will “soon” drop back to 3% (good luck!), and that therefore prices will soon start to spike again, and that they can ride up this market with their vacant house they’d moved out of some time ago but haven’t put on the market yet.

So prices of new and resale single-family houses have moved close together, they’re within a hair. And with mortgage-rate buydowns, the monthly payments can be lower on a new house compared to an existing house, as homebuilders have been aggressively competing with these homeowners, and have said so in their earnings calls.

The price difference in dollars. The national median price of new single-family houses has fallen much more than the national median price of existing single-family houses (via the National Association of Realtors).

To iron out the large ups and downs and some of the seasonal differences, we look at the six-month moving average of the median price of both, new single-family houses (red) and existing single-family houses (green).

The price difference has shrunk to a range between around 5% and 7%, the lowest since 2006, just as the Housing Bust was taking on momentum:

The difference in percentages. The median price of new houses in March was only 7.2% higher than the median price of existing houses (6-month moving averages for both), not including the mortgage-rate buydowns and other incentives.

The narrowing price differences also occurred during the early phases of the Housing Bust, as homebuilders slashed their prices, and homeowners were slow to follow. But eventually they did, until prices of used homes fell so far that they became competitive again with new houses as the difference widened again.

So sales of new houses held up while sales of existing houses plunged.

Sales of new single-family houses: The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales rose to 693,000 new houses in March, up by 8.3% from a year ago and down by only 1.3% from March 2019. So not anything fancy, but decent given the environment of 7%-plus mortgage rates.

But sales of existing single-family houses plunged by 19% from March 2019, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

This divergence of sales illustrates the effectiveness of lower prices and mortgage-rate buydowns that homebuilders have pursued though it squeezed their profit margins from the big-fat levels during the free-money era.

Inventory for sale of new houses at all stages of construction rose to 465,000 houses, the highest since August-October 2022, and beyond that the highest since 2008. This amounts to 7 months of supply at the March level of sales. There is more than plenty of inventory for sale:

[apples]

Horse price crash:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/bills/middle-class-families-forced-give-up-ponies-cover-mortgage/ (full article text in quote)

Middle-class families forced to give up ponies to cover mortgage bills

Quote

Rise in vet bills and insurance costs are compounding owners’ financial difficulties

Middle class families are giving up horse riding to cover soaring bills and higher mortgage costs.

The increased cost of feed, insurance and fees charged by yard owners means horse ownership is £1,000 more expensive than it was last year.

As a result, charities have seen a spike in horses being handed over for rehoming, as families battle high mortgage rates and utility bills.

Mortgage rates edged upwards this week over expectations of a smaller base rate cut this summer. About 1.6 million homeowners’ fixed-rate deals will end this year.

The average cost of owning a horse rose by a fifth to £6,000 a year between 2022 and 2023, according to equestrian insurer Harry Hall.

More than three-quarters of yard owners raised their fees last year, with 29pc charging horse owners £20 more a month. 

Liz Hopper, of Harry Hall, said yard owners were under pressure from soaring insurance costs, and the need to pay employees the National Living Wage (currently £11.44 an hour).

Likewise, insurance premiums for horse owners, as with other forms of pet insurance, have also risen by as much as 13pc in 2023.

Ms Hopper said: “Horse owners are facing bills of £500 a month – and that’s just for one horse, a good number of equestrians have two.

“All of the essentials like feed, bedding, livery, shoes and vet fees have gone up.

“A lot of it because of terrible crops last year. Bedding is made of straw, and the terrible rain ruined a lot of crops.”

A report by the British Equestrian Trade Association found that some 6 million British households have an ex-horse rider, of which half want to return to the sport. Almost half (44pc) of horse owners admitted they had made personal sacrifices to keep their horses.

However some have been forced to rehome their horses, the RSPCA took in 444 horses last year – a 15pc increase from the year before.

At the time, a spokesman said: “This year we rehomed 82 horses, which is a drop of more than 50pc on last year, which is a trend across the rehoming sector as the cost of living takes its toll”.

Bransby Horses, a rehoming charity in Lincoln, told specialist publication Horse and Hound, that “this winter has hit the equine community hard,” and expected an increase in calls for support and welfare in 2024.

A cost of living report published by the National Equine Welfare Council found that almost one in five horse owners were “having to consider difficult decisions such as selling their horse, sharing their horse or, very sadly, having to euthanise their horse because of rising costs”.

The council has yet to publish its findings this year, but Su Selve, of member charity World Horse Welfare, said rising mortgage rates were becoming an issue for equestrians.

She said: “One in five horse owners this year said they had encountered difficulty with their horse-keeping budget because of increased mortgage payments – and more than half said higher energy bills had posed an unexpected challenge.

“As a charity, we are seeing an increase in people contacting us for advice because they are struggling to cope financially.”

It comes as a report by loan agency Plend found even high-earners are struggling to cope with the cost of living crisis, with one in four workers earning at least £60,000 a year admitting to borrowing money to meet basic needs. One in 10 said they had considered loan sharks to access credit and pay bills, Plend’s report found.

Horse rehoming charity Saving Abandoned Fly-Grazing Equines (SAFE) said older horses were more likely to be rehomed, as “they likely have medical problems that are costly.”

Ms Hopper said: “Horses live to a good old age. But when a horse needs major treatment, do you pay the bill or make a difficult decision? It’s a tough call, but it does happen.”

Alison Stratford, SAFE’s founder and chair trustee, said: “It’s our goal to help abandoned, neglected horses and unfortunately we have seen an increase recently in horse owners seeking re-home options due to the cost of living crisis.

“The underlying factor is that some equestrians simply can’t afford the ever-increasing costs that come with owning a horse.”

 

Edited April 24 by apples

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, apples said:

Horse price crash:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/bills/middle-class-families-forced-give-up-ponies-cover-mortgage/ (full article text in quote)

Wannabe Middle-class families forced to give up ponies to cover mortgage bills

 

 

[roundhouse]

5 hours ago, apples said:

Horse price crash:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/bills/middle-class-families-forced-give-up-ponies-cover-mortgage/ (full article text in quote)

Middle-class families forced to give up ponies to cover mortgage bills

 

Not much sympathy (except for the horses) - too much productive land in this overcrowded country is given over to grazing horses. Bit like golf course, can be put to better use.

[Ash4781b]

12 hours ago, apples said:

Horse price crash:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/bills/middle-class-families-forced-give-up-ponies-cover-mortgage/ (full article text in quote)

Middle-class families forced to give up ponies to cover mortgage bills

 

“Horse rehoming charity Saving Abandoned Fly-Grazing Equines (SAFE) “

What a name! 

[spunko]

16 hours ago, apples said:

Horse price crash:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/bills/middle-class-families-forced-give-up-ponies-cover-mortgage/ (full article text in quote)

Middle-class families forced to give up ponies to cover mortgage bills

 

I live near a livery place, and know the owners. Always surprised by how un-posh a lot of the horse owners seem to be now. Most of them strike me as lower middle class rather than posh sorts. I suspect if you're truly posh you look after your own horses and employ a stable hand.  Plus a lot of the horse riders sound like fishwives.

Just goes to show that the stereotypes aren't always true.

I miss the days of it all being posh totty

[Onsamui]

11 hours ago, roundhouse said:

Not much sympathy (except for the horses) - too much productive land in this overcrowded country is given over to grazing horses. Bit like golf course, can be put to better use.

We might be using the horse and cart again if 'just stop oil' have their way.

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

I live near a livery place, and know the owners. Always surprised by how un-posh a lot of the horse owners seem to be now. Most of them strike me as lower middle class rather than posh sorts. I suspect if you're truly posh you look after your own horses and employ a stable hand.  Plus a lot of the horse riders sound like fishwives.

Just goes to show that the stereotypes aren't always true.

I miss the days of it all being posh totty

 

An admin's daughter at one company bought and funded a pony from her part time wages at McDonalds, including renting the land.  This was a single mother in rented accommodation so not "Daddy's money".

I had the impression that it was fairly common but this was an area with a lot of rough ground suitable only for grazing so it may have been cheaper there as compared to the flatlands of East Anglia where arable will be more profitable.

[sancho panza]

On 23/04/2024 at 12:48, Bobthebuilder said:

Zoopla sees surge in Dorset seaside homes for sale - BBC News

Listings up 2.2 times from 2 years ago.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

A big London property investor I know said to me during the pandemic and the rush to WFH in the South West, and I quote "They are gonna get their arses slapped".

[One percent]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A big London property investor I know said to me during the pandemic and the rush to WFH in the South West, and I quote "They are gonna get their arses slapped".

Lots of fhl and blocks of rentals hitting the market in Whitby and scabby. 

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

Lots of fhl and blocks of rentals hitting the market in Whitby and scabby. 

Didn't think of that, demand for staycations must have dropped off a cliff now, plus interest rates.

I was looking for a place to stay in Dorset next month, mate sent me links to Airbnb places, it was cheaper to stay in a country inn with an ensuite and a full English breakfast.

[JoeDavola]

20 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A big London property investor I know said to me during the pandemic and the rush to WFH in the South West, and I quote "They are gonna get their arses slapped".

Yes we have a change in management at the moment in our place and I may well actually be required to come in a few days a week soon.

I certainly wouldn't gamble on buying a house out in the sticks in the hope that I get to WFH most of the time for the next 25 years. Anyone banking on this is playing a dangerous game, especially with the tech sector apparently having a downturn.

[One percent]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Didn't think of that, demand for staycations must have dropped off a cliff now, plus interest rates.

I was looking for a place to stay in Dorset next month, mate sent me links to Airbnb places, it was cheaper to stay in a country inn with an ensuite and a full English breakfast.

It’s goth weekend, which is always incredibly busy but there are fhl being advertised as vacant.  I think there has been a massive slump.   

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes we have a change in management at the moment in our place and I may well actually be required to come in a few days a week soon.

I certainly wouldn't gamble on buying a house out in the sticks in the hope that I get to WFH most of the time for the next 25 years. Anyone banking on this is playing a dangerous game, especially with the tech sector apparently having a downturn.

We are getting more and more people moaning about ferry cancellations and delays.

It doesn't ever bother me as a now ingrained 'somewhen person, but it really pisses off those that need to commute back to London once or twice a week.

[sancho panza]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tory-commuter-towns-worst-hit-050000720.html

Tory commuter towns worst hit by soaring mortgage costs

Tory commuter towns have suffered the biggest hit from soaring mortgage costs, new figures reveal.

Homeowners in Conservative strongholds outside of London experienced the sharpest rise in housing costs last year, as 1.4 million fixed-term mortgages were up for renewal.

Analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that families in towns in districts such as Uttlesford, Tonbridge and Malling, and Tandridge were at the sharp end of rate rises.

 

This will increase pressure on senior Tory MPs such as Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Claire Coutinho before the next election, all of whom have constituencies in the commuter belt.

Homeowners remortgaging in Elmbridge, which falls within the constituency of former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab, saw monthly costs rise by £456 last year, ONS figures show.

[HousePriceMania]

Tory commuter towns worst hit by INSANE HOUSE PRICES