Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[belfastchild]

8 minutes ago, spunko said:

I wonder if this is why websites like BOTB love to roll out the briefcase filled with replica cash?

 

Its funny but certain things stick in your head. I always remember the gameshow bullseye when he used to count the cash out and set it down in front of the people. He always said something like it will take me 2 minutes to count out.
I remember the first time I ever had a hundred quid note in my hand. Even now when I do a forex and get 100 euro notes they are always the last to be used anywhere.

It can be easy to forget that the vast majority of people have never seen or felt 1000 quid cash in twenties never mind anything else.

[nirvana]

17 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

It can be easy to forget that the vast majority of people have never seen or felt 1000 quid cash in twenties never mind anything else.

tried to swap a wedge for 50s recently.......don't stock 50s anymore, no demand apparently lol

need to order them in and it's a min £2500......that's Halifax

[sancho panza]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/03/lenders-sound-alarm-rapid-uptick-in-35-year-mortgages/

Lenders sound the alarm over ‘rapid’ uptick in 35-year mortgages

Almost one in four first-time buyers are now stretching their repayments over 35 years

Banks have sounded the alarm over a “rapid” increase in people taking out mortgages of more than 35 years, as almost one in four first-time buyers are now borrowing into retirement.

A total of 23pc of first-time buyers stretched their mortgages beyond 35 years in December, new figures from UK Finance show, as they accepted longer terms to get on the housing ladder.

This is up from 17pc a year ago and just 9pc before the Bank of England started raising interest rates from a record low of 0.1pc in December 202

[AWW]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/03/lenders-sound-alarm-rapid-uptick-in-35-year-mortgages/

Lenders sound the alarm over ‘rapid’ uptick in 35-year mortgages

Almost one in four first-time buyers are now stretching their repayments over 35 years

Banks have sounded the alarm over a “rapid” increase in people taking out mortgages of more than 35 years, as almost one in four first-time buyers are now borrowing into retirement.

A total of 23pc of first-time buyers stretched their mortgages beyond 35 years in December, new figures from UK Finance show, as they accepted longer terms to get on the housing ladder.

This is up from 17pc a year ago and just 9pc before the Bank of England started raising interest rates from a record low of 0.1pc in December 202

Moving from 25 to 35 year repayment only knocks about 15% off the monthly payment. Another 1.5% IR increase from here wipes out that 15% reduction. They don't even need IRs to go up for that to happen - as values slide, a reduction in equity and resulting higher LTV when next remortgaging can easily do that.

Does stretching the term to a frankly ludicrous length actually improve affordability materially?  It doesn't seem like it does, to me.

Edited March 4 by AWW

[sancho panza]

35 minutes ago, AWW said:

Moving from 25 to 35 year repayment only knocks about 15% off the monthly payment. Another 1.5% IR increase from here wipes out that 15% reduction. They don't even need IRs to go up for that to happen - as values slide, a reduction in equity and resulting higher LTV when next remortgaging can easily do that.

Does stretching the term to a frankly ludicrous length actually improve affordability materially?  It doesn't seem like it does, to me.

I think you have to factor in a couple of other things as well as your points

lot  of the bigger lenders use IRB approach to risk weighting whcih means until they have a singficant amount of data showing how loan quality is affected,they'll be risk weighted at par with 25 yr mortgages.

standardized approach similar.

I comef rom a health background and realsitically,if average age of FTB is 35+(38 is the widely acepted stat now) then add on 35 and you get to 70.

reality is that-allowing for a nromal distribution of ill health)-the less healthy will start getting comorbidities in their 50's.the main body in their 60's the healthier/luckier in their 70's.

add in decreasing earnings as people try nad semi rtire/retire and you have an absolute sh1tshow awaiting the banks .as weve seen tho,given the chance of kicking the can they will.

but it think the reaosns you outline ref LTVs and 15% mean the chickens will come home to roost well before the mid point of the 35 year mortgage when average FTBer from today is circa 57.

as you say,anotehr rate rise and the 15% gets negated.

 

[Rare Bear]

18 hours ago, nirvana said:

tried to swap a wedge for 50s recently.......don't stock 50s anymore, no demand apparently lol

need to order them in and it's a min £2500......that's Halifax

A few years back I was going to buy a car, private sale. I went into the bank to get a thousand quid for a cash deposit in case I needed it. I asked for fifty pound notes. Sorry, we seldom have then these days so I had to take twenties.

A couple of months back a guy had agreed to come to do a roof repair for me. Again I popped into the bank and asked for a thousand quid. I didn't ask for any particular denomination as I assumed I'd be getting twenties. I got fifties.

[sancho panza]

sometimes you wonder why they bother witha reduction.fyi £2k is a top end rental around these parts.

[Sue Lowe]

Don't take gold, they might not be very impressed to see how little their house is "worth" after all!

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

sometimes you wonder why they bother witha reduction.fyi £2k is a top end rental around these parts.

 

That's like Tesco's food reductions - going out of if date today so 10p off.

It's pointless.

[Chewing Grass]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

sometimes you wonder why they bother witha reduction.fyi £2k is a top end rental around these parts.

How do I find price change history of a particular property on rightmove without subscribing to anything or installing extensions/apps.

Anyone know?

[Wight Flight]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

sometimes you wonder why they bother witha reduction.fyi £2k is a top end rental around these parts.

This one is better.

dropped £600 today.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141126890#/?channel=RES_LET

[Van Lady]

32 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

This one is better.

dropped £600 today.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141126890#/?channel=RES_LET

In the description it says for rent long term but it’s currently up for sale and will remain so 🙄

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

In the description it says for rent long term but it’s currently up for sale and will remain so 🙄

Very hard to sell. The road is closed because of the landslip, and might never re-open.

[Van Lady]

12 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Very hard to sell. The road is closed because of the landslip, and might never re-open.

Oh dear, never mind

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

In the description it says for rent long term but it’s currently up for sale and will remain so 🙄

Serco .?

[Van Lady]

Just now, Phil said:

Serco .?

Taking into account @Wight Flight’s post above I’d think the seller would perhaps jump at a long term contract from serco to house new arrivals.

[Wight Flight]

14 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Taking into account @Wight Flight’s post above I’d think the seller would perhaps jump at a long term contract from serco to house new arrivals.

Couldn't possibly. The bus no longer goes past, but more importantly it is a mobile signal dead zone which would breach their human rights.

[Van Lady]

2 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Couldn't possibly. The bus no longer goes past, but more importantly it is a mobile signal dead zone which would breach their human rights.

Looks like the seller is fucked.

Oh dear, never mind.

[Wight Flight]

3 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Looks like the seller is fucked.

Oh dear, never mind.

Not really. They still own a very nice house so are richer than many.

[Van Lady]

Just now, Wight Flight said:

Not really. They still own a very nice house so are richer than many.

Do they own the house with no mortgage? Why aren’t they living it? Why do they want to sell? Plus they’re trying to rent it.

I’d say that if they were minted and liked the house, even as a holiday place, it wouldn’t be up for sale or rent.

 

 

[Wight Flight]

6 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Do they own the house with no mortgage? Why aren’t they living it? Why do they want to sell? Plus they’re trying to rent it.

I’d say that if they were minted and liked the house, even as a holiday place, it wouldn’t be up for sale or rent.

 

 

Who knows?

This is in the same area. Would never have been that cheap last year.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/145403864?

[wherebee]

On 03/03/2024 at 03:44, spunko said:

Not really in the spirit of this thread but would appreciate some advice please. A property came on last July that went under offer in October and it's still Under Offer. I contacted the EA asking if they can notify me if it falls through but didnt hear back.

Is it cunty to now contact the EA again saying I will gazump the interested party? Not really my scene but they are dragging their heels clearly.

It does seem like the ideal property and location, I wasn't considering the area it's in last year so hence didnt see it, but now want to move a bit further away.

could well be the buyer's first chain fell through.  Absolutely your right to counter offer - don't forget under UK law the agent MUST pass all offers to the buyer.  I suggest you put it in writing, give a copy to the estate agent, and post a copy through the letterbox with 'COPY' stamped on it.

If the agent doesn't pass your offer on, some nice legal fuckery can be done.

[ashestoashes]

10 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Who knows?

This is in the same area. Would never have been that cheap last year.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/145403864?

100 yards from the landslip might affect appeal

[Bobthebuilder]

14 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

This is in the same area. Would never have been that cheap last year.

Would you even get a mortgage on that now?

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

100 yards from the landslip might affect appeal

I think the estate agent is on dodgy ground describing it as 'an ideal permanent home'.