Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[Ianb78]

To me this seems very much like 2005. Every man and his dog saying houses are about to collapse but they continued to inexplicably rise, culminating in the 2007 peak 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

To me this seems very much like 2005. Every man and his dog saying houses are about to collapse but they continued to inexplicably rise, culminating in the 2007 peak 

 

I am seeing heavy reductions in Dorset after the last few years of boom town, always wondered if the trend would reverse.

2007 was still 6 years away from the bottom prices in my neck of London.

Edit to add, that does fit in with Fred Harrisons 18 year cycle theory, 1996 to 2013 = 17 years.

Edited March 8 by Bobthebuilder

[ashestoashes]

worst gazumping story I heard was someone at work was selling a house and it was one of the best in the street, they quickly found a buyer and the buyer was delighted and kept going on about what a fantastic house they were buying to their neigbours and friends. One of their neighbours, who hadn't even been thinking of moving, then decided the house would be prefect for them and went and bought it, lol . 

[spunko]

11 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

To me this seems very much like 2005. Every man and his dog saying houses are about to collapse but they continued to inexplicably rise, culminating in the 2007 peak 

 

Are you in the NE by any chance?

Round here, 2007 wasn't the peak. 2021 was.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86225646#/?channel=RES_BUY

29 Nov 2023	£4,500,000	→	£3,500,000
28 Oct 2023	£5,500,000	→	£4,500,000
18 Jul 2023	£7,500,000	→	£5,500,000
20 Jun 2023	First seen	→	£7,500,000

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

Are you in the NE by any chance?

Round here, 2007 wasn't the peak. 2021 was.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86225646#/?channel=RES_BUY

29 Nov 2023	£4,500,000	→	£3,500,000
28 Oct 2023	£5,500,000	→	£4,500,000
18 Jul 2023	£7,500,000	→	£5,500,000
20 Jun 2023	First seen	→	£7,500,000

Mmmmmh.....booze.

[JoeDavola]

37 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

To me this seems very much like 2005.

It's felt like 2005 for the last 5 years however.

I will say that lots of stuff in NI priced at around £300K and above outside of Belfast just doesn't seem to be selling at all.

Half decent sub £200K stuff, perhaps sub £250K stuff tends to shift quick.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Ianb78 said:

To me this seems very much like 2005. Every man and his dog saying houses are about to collapse but they continued to inexplicably rise, culminating in the 2007 peak 

As ever, there's no one housing market.
There are nice places in my area that have had 20% lopped off the initial AP and still aren't selling. Places that are selling going for 2014/15 prices.

[dnb24]

3 hours ago, One percent said:

My daughters are currently house hunting on the london/essex borders.  It’s all being sold before they even get a chance to view.  All the talk of crashing and burning isn’t holding up to the reality of what’s happening on the ground 

Are you sure they’re looking hard enough - prices  minimally higher than 2019.

 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/142418171#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Or people trying to offload for £30k more than they  bought in 2022- and obviously not finding the buyers

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/143888168#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Or no chain places that have been sitting for a while-

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144575873#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

or price that has basically been static (inflation adjusted since 2014)

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/143550101#/?channel=RES_BUY

 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132071915#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/142634924#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

or places with prices we haven’t seen in that area for at least 12 years- I was looking around this area in 2012- cheapest we came across was £400k for terrace- nothing else.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/145076132#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

its not crash territory yet (flats excluded) but it’s not London 2010-2016.

Edited March 8 by dnb24

[onlyme]

3 hours ago, Ianb78 said:

To me this seems very much like 2005. Every man and his dog saying houses are about to collapse but they continued to inexplicably rise, culminating in the 2007 peak 

 

Globally things are definitely breaking down in the largest housing markets. Have been for a while, just the covid redistribution of money flushed into the shires masked how quickly personal finances were being negatively affected.

You can't have this going on in US market and be completely couunter cyclical to it.

 

 

Edited March 8 by onlyme

[CVG]

14 hours ago, One percent said:

My daughters are currently house hunting on the london/essex borders.  It’s all being sold before they even get a chance to view.  All the talk of crashing and burning isn’t holding up to the reality of what’s happening on the ground 

Are they looking for very specific houses because I can't see it on RM? If I look at everything added or reduced in the last 14 days and toggle between including sold and not including then I see less than 10% sold in the last 14 days.

I can imagine a few days lag for EA's to update RM to SSTC but generally I never see evidence of houses flying off the market.

3 Miles around Buckhurst Hill shows 485/463 - incl/excl SSTC last 14 days.

Edited March 9 by CVG

[AWW]

I would be wary of buying around Buckhurst Hill and Loughton - loads of new build going up, new infrastructure to support an extra few thousand people not so much. 

[spygirl]

16 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

It's felt like 2005 for the last 5 years however.

I will say that lots of stuff in NI priced at around £300K and above outside of Belfast just doesn't seem to be selling at all.

Half decent sub £200K stuff, perhaps sub £250K stuff tends to shift quick.

I think NI is like a platypus.

Totally freakish, madness.

No real economy, all DLA, public sector n USA KissMeImIrish investment tax breaks.

It's a bearded lady, Claw handed boy freakshow.

Ukgov have down graded risk in noirland. Whether it's worth it, dunno.

But as Noirland comes close joining the sunny South, another Platypus economy,, it'll all look great until it becomes very very shite.

I used to think a United Oirland would blow up a few years after uniting.

Niw, with SF revealing it's gormless South American 1960s daft Marxist economics, and the South having its pants pulled on on its mainly sham economy, I reckon tgey both blow up before.

Maybe it'll get so bad that the South will ask to join the UK?

 

[JoeDavola]

11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I think NI is like a platypus.

Totally freakish, madness.

No real economy, all DLA, public sector n USA KissMeImIrish investment tax breaks.

It's a bearded lady, Claw handed boy freakshow.

Ukgov have down graded risk in noirland. Whether it's worth it, dunno.

But as Noirland comes close joining the sunny South, another Platypus economy,, it'll all look great until it becomes very very shite.

I used to think a United Oirland would blow up a few years after uniting.

Niw, with SF revealing it's gormless South American 1960s daft Marxist economics, and the South having its pants pulled on on its mainly sham economy, I reckon tgey both blow up before.

Maybe it'll get so bad that the South will ask to join the UK?

 

Yeah remove the government jobs and the American outsourced government subsidised jobs and there’s fuck all left.

Thing is those gov jobs and associated perks made a generation quite wealthy and there’s a lot of money sloshing around.

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah remove the government jobs and the American outsourced government subsidised jobs and there’s fuck all left.

Thing is those gov jobs and associated perks made a generation quite wealthy and there’s a lot of money sloshing around.

That money has been spent.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

That money has been spent.

Except it hasn’t.

My parents are as working class as they come with £100k burning a hole in their bank account.

My boomer 65 year old ex colleague is earning £50k+ from pensions alone on top of his massive house and savings.

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

That money has been spent.

Has it fuck.

Troubles pensions have only just started kicking in or are about to.

Went to view a house this morning, already sold. Asking price (200k) was 20% higher than a bigger house across the street sold for in September. Thought they were being cheeky fuckers as thats 15% lower than peak 2007 prices for the area. No.
Downsizing to a bungalow.

[JoeDavola]

Another indicator of the money in NI - I briefly used this gym about 10 years ago when it was a far smaller premises…it somehow expanded to a larger premesis during the fucking lockdown and is now trebling somehow.

This isn’t a £30 a month job this is an expensive place to join (over 100 quid a month their top package is 300 quid every 6 weeks) and they seem to be raking it in:

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/belfast-gym-trebles-floorspace-with-move-to-new-premises-and-eyes-further-expansion/a1964129935.html
 

Edited March 9 by JoeDavola

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Has it fuck.

Troubles pensions have only just started kicking in or are about to.

Went to view a house this morning, already sold. Asking price (200k) was 20% higher than a bigger house across the street sold for in September. Thought they were being cheeky fuckers as thats 15% lower than peak 2007 prices for the area. No.
Downsizing to a bungalow.

100% - I will be in my grave before that kind of money stops having an effect.

The other thing is these sorts don’t want to invest in anything other than NI property - the sort that will spend a fortune on a flat in Portrush when you could travel the world on and off for the next 20+ years on that money.

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

100% - I will be in my grave before that kind of money stops having an effect.

The other thing is these sorts don’t want to invest in anything other than NI property - the sort that will spend a fortune on a flat in Portrush when you could travel the world on and off for the next 20+ years on that money.

Ironically the house I briefly saw today I see as a sign that the traditional proddy areas are now too expensive and mixed areas might now be starting to get a bump. Nobody familiar with the area would have paid that amount of money as they will know what the ceiling prices are/were. If you are selling a place in East Belfast theres probably loads of money left over and it looks 'cheap'.
Thats a bit rich from me though as I was going to view it for someone moving back from England!

[JoeDavola]

7 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

traditional proddy areas are now too expensive and mixed areas might now be starting to get a bump

Makes sense. Proddy areas have gone mental - my mother was lamenting that the house they moved into a decade ago has 'only' gone up by £100K since and the house they left for it has gone up by more like £130-150K - which is true like but try being in cash over that time!

Plenty of prod areas now where a bog standard 3 bed semi is £300K-ish so £200K probably seems better value in comparison, and it probably is.

Edited March 9 by JoeDavola

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, onlyme said:

Globally things are definitely breaking down in the largest housing markets. Have been for a while, just the covid redistribution of money flushed into the shires masked how quickly personal finances were being negatively affected.

You can't have this going on in US market and be completely couunter cyclical to it.

 

 

Now I'm taking those figures with a pinch of salt.

Most American have 30y fixes.

As they are tied to bind rates at timeout mortgage, usmortgage rates never went as low as Zirp ECB n BoE.

See chart -

Anyone fixing  - or remortgaging - peak coof is a pig in muck. And you can remortgage at anytime after initial fix.

Americans have a screaming hit jiob market fir skills, with wages shooting up.

The 30y fix protects Americans for any inflation down the line.

Of course rateshavr got pretty grim from 22.

I'd expect most mortgage  Americans to sit tight.

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

100% - I will be in my grave before that kind of money stops having an effect.

The other thing is these sorts don’t want to invest in anything other than NI property - the sort that will spend a fortune on a flat in Portrush when you could travel the world on and off for the next 20+ years on that money.

Won't the young leave?

Seriously.

 

[spunko]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

I would be wary of buying around Buckhurst Hill and Loughton - loads of new build going up, new infrastructure to support an extra few thousand people not so much. 

It's like that everywhere in the SE though. Where do you suggest?

[spunko]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

100% - I will be in my grave before that kind of money stops having an effect.

The other thing is these sorts don’t want to invest in anything other than NI property - the sort that will spend a fortune on a flat in Portrush when you could travel the world on and off for the next 20+ years on that money.

Just be grateful when your parents die you'll get some money, Millenial!

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-13169829/Millennials-property-windfall-baby-boomers-mortgage-free-homes.html

What a article.

Interesting that most of the comments suggest it isn't like that; most people need to sell their parents home to pay for their dementia care.

Out of interest who pays for care homes & dementia care if you dont have a home to sell? Ie. say you've been in rented your whole life and have no assets. The taxpayer?

[onlyme]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Now I'm taking those figures with a pinch of salt.

Most American have 30y fixes.

As they are tied to bind rates at timeout mortgage, usmortgage rates never went as low as Zirp ECB n BoE.

 

Still have the principal to pay off. Huge mortagages still confer large payemetns regardless of the fix. Notice how the measure was deliquency rate was already ticking up before 2020, lots of evidence were were already going into recesssion then. Overall the percentages are low so a tick up of 0.1% here and there could just reflect job loss and income pressure adnd not have anything to do with refi rates and interst rate components of mortages. For all the jobs that have been creted in the US since most have gone to migrants and not so many full time and large number temp / part time.

 

[onlyme]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

Just be grateful when your parents die you'll get some money, Millenial!

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-13169829/Millennials-property-windfall-baby-boomers-mortgage-free-homes.html

What a article.

Interesting that most of the comments suggest it isn't like that; most people need to sell their parents home to pay for their dementia care.

Out of interest who pays for care homes & dementia care if you dont have a home to sell? Ie. say you've been in rented your whole life and have no assets. The taxpayer?

Yes the taxpayer, but you might end up in a cruddy nursing home.