Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Im not really anything but that doesnt stop the bigots not wanting 'protestant' land being sold to 'catholics'.

My grandfather was hounded out of Southern Ireland, he was a Methodist minister though so probably not unsurprising. I wouldn't be here if that had not happened so no hard feelings.

[headrow]

This house in my town has a huge footprint. Blank canvas indoors. Could be made stunning.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144772985#/?channel=RES_BUY

[Frank Hovis]

15 minutes ago, headrow said:

This house in my town has a huge footprint. Blank canvas indoors. Could be made stunning.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144772985#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Great house, great price.

If that was local to me there would only be one thing stopping me.

And it would stop me.

 

Modern method of auction

[Democorruptcy]

16 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Halifax becomes fourth major lender to up mortgage interest rates today in shock to brokers

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/halifax-becomes-fourth-major-lender-153550782.html

Banks upping mortgage rates but at the same time dropping saving rates. It's a nice game when you can get away with it. Santander have recently announced they are slashing their 5.2% easy access saver to 4.2% from May, after upping their mortgage rates.

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Loki said:

Does anyone follow land prices?

Oddly I was looking on 

https://www.woodlands.co.uk/buying-a-wood/

and

https://www.uklandandfarms.co.uk/woodland-and-forestry/

 

yesterday.

I know Spunko said he thought the prices were still up but I looked at them in 2022 and thought the acre prices were 10-20K for farmland and woodlands were all sold.

There's plenty for sale now and the farmland is back down below £10K an acre.

This is down to £8.5K an acre in buckinghamshire

 

and 4K an acre in the highlands of Scotland, which sounds way below what I remember it and £8300 someone more in central scotland.

 

and £3000 ish in Cumbria. 

 

The £30K an acre stuff is unsold but in 2022 everything was selling.

Edited March 12 by HousePriceMania

[With a crooked smile]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Oddly I was looking on 

https://www.woodlands.co.uk/buying-a-wood/

and

https://www.uklandandfarms.co.uk/woodland-and-forestry/

 

yesterday.

I know Spunko said he thought the prices were still up but I looked at them in 2022 and thought the acre prices were 10-20K for farmland and woodlands were all sold.

There's plenty for sale now and the farmland is back down below £10K an acre.

This is down to £8.5K an acre in buckinghamshire

 

and 4K an acre in the highlands of Scotland, which sounds way below what I remember it and £8300 someone more in central scotland.

 

and £3000 ish in Cumbria. 

 

The £30K an acre stuff is unsold but in 2022 everything was selling.

First of all I don't think you know what you are looking at with agroforestry land prices so any comparisons you make will be meaningless.

Secondly the woodlands.co.uk website is mostly aimed at idiots/hobbyists and bears no relationship to real woodland prices sold by private treaty which actually are usually considerably cheaper.

Edited March 12 by With a crooked smile

[Frank Hovis]

17 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Halifax becomes fourth major lender to up mortgage interest rates today in shock to brokers

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/halifax-becomes-fourth-major-lender-153550782.html

 

I was actually surprised by that.

I'm not a Stuey claiming central bank interest rates will tumble but they don't look like going up either, so why the hikes?

It is if course great news.

[ashestoashes]

23 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I was actually surprised by that.

I'm not a Stuey claiming central bank interest rates will tumble but they don't look like going up either, so why the hikes?

It is if course great news.

it's because the mortgage rates are based on swap rates which are going up

SWAP rates are what lenders pay to financial institutions and corporations in order to acquire fixed funding for a specific period of time. This could be anywhere between one to ten years, but is typically a two-, three-, five- or ten-year fixed rate. The cost of this SWAP rate will then be used to price up mortgage products for lenders to ensure a profit margin.

Some lenders will have sophisticated SWAP rate money management programmes and will be in a position to offer a fixed term from the completion date, whereas others will work to an end date.

https://www.mfbrokers.co.uk/resources/money-markets

Edited March 12 by ashestoashes

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

it's because the mortgage rates are based on swap rates which are going up

SWAP rates are what lenders pay to financial institutions and corporations in order to acquire fixed funding for a specific period of time. This could be anywhere between one to ten years, but is typically a two-, three-, five- or ten-year fixed rate. The cost of this SWAP rate will then be used to price up mortgage products for lenders to ensure a profit margin.

Some lenders will have sophisticated SWAP rate money management programmes and will be in a position to offer a fixed term from the completion date, whereas others will work to an end date.

https://www.mfbrokers.co.uk/resources/money-markets

Would this has had any impact ?

 

 

bear in mind the UK "term funding" scam was used to suppress mortgage/savings rates for years.

Without it the bubble would not have been possible.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

38 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

First of all I don't think you know what you are looking at with agroforestry land prices so any comparisons you make will be meaningless.

Secondly the woodlands.co.uk website is mostly aimed at idiots/hobbyists and bears no relationship to real woodland prices sold by private treaty which actually are usually considerably cheaper.

It is the inheritance tax treatment of woodland that largely drives the smaller woodlands.co.uk business. I looked into buying some land years ago for shooting, it was a horrible experience with everybody's greedy paws out to grab you, never again.

As they say in Dorset, "Everyone and their dog wants a piece of land".

[JoeDavola]

46 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I'm not a Stuey claiming central bank interest rates will tumble but they don't look like going up either, so why the hikes?

It is if course great news.

Do you mean it's good news in terms of the government IR not being pushed down?

From a purely housing persepective it doesn't seem like good news where I am as prices aren't budging so it's just more wealth transfer to the banks for those who have mortgages.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Do you mean it's good news in terms of the government IR not being pushed down?

From a purely housing persepective it doesn't seem like good news where I am as prices aren't budging so it's just more wealth transfer to the banks for those who have mortgages.

 

@JoeDavola is there an equivalent chart just for Northern ireland ?

Mortgage lending is through the floor, no one is buying.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

"mainland"

"mainland"

Didn't stop those touchy Catholics taking offence!

 

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Joes a prod, but its ok, I'll vouch for him. ;-)

On second thoughts....

[belfastchild]

44 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It is the inheritance tax treatment of woodland that largely drives the smaller woodlands.co.uk business. I looked into buying some land years ago for shooting, it was a horrible experience with everybody's greedy paws out to grab you, never again.

As they say in Dorset, "Everyone and their dog wants a piece of land".

Strangely enough saw someone this morning advertising their bit of land they bought at 12 quid an hour so people could exercise their dogs off the lead.

I bet they got a fucking covid loan for that business plan!

 

I was originally looking the land just to make it easier to get the gun license!

[JoeDavola]

47 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

@JoeDavola is there an equivalent chart just for Northern ireland ?

Mortgage lending is through the floor, no one is buying.

Plenty of people buying the few half decent houses being listed.

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Plenty of people buying the few half decent houses being listed.

Is there any actual housing specific data showing mortgage lending for NI ?

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It is the inheritance tax treatment of woodland that largely drives the smaller woodlands.co.uk business. I looked into buying some land years ago for shooting, it was a horrible experience with everybody's greedy paws out to grab you, never again.

As they say in Dorset, "Everyone and their dog wants a piece of land".

Yeah, I know several people locally that have just laughed at the prices on that website. None of them are the sort of people who would be buying up 1000s of acres but are the sort who would buy (often as part of a syndicate). 

[belfastchild]

4 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yeah, I know several people locally that have just laughed at the prices on that website. None of them are the sort of people who would be buying up 1000s of acres but are the sort who would buy (often as part of a syndicate). 

They arent selling land though. They are selling the dream. Buy a big plot, cut it up into four, stick a gate on each, gravel parking and a couple of nice wooden benches about the place. Talk a load of bollocks about the flora and fauna, mention a covenant and give a 'free' introduction to never going near the place again course.

 

Wish Id thought of it ;-)

[HousePriceMania]

24 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

They arent selling land though. They are selling the dream. Buy a big plot, cut it up into four, stick a gate on each, gravel parking and a couple of nice wooden benches about the place. Talk a load of bollocks about the flora and fauna, mention a covenant and give a 'free' introduction to never going near the place again course.

 

Wish Id thought of it ;-)

Sounds like a BTL HMO.

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is there any actual housing specific data showing mortgage lending for NI ?

I don't know - we can philosophise about 'the data' all we want but the fact is stuff is selling, especially in Belfast.

There's not a great deal coming on but there's buyers for what is coming on. And prices appear to be rising.

There is no good news on the horizion for home buyers in NI, whether mortgaged or cash buyers.

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I don't know - we can philosophise about 'the data' all we want but the fact is stuff is selling, especially in Belfast.

There's not a great deal coming on but there's buyers for what is coming on. And prices appear to be rising.

There is no good news on the horizion for home buyers in NI, whether mortgaged or cash buyers.

"the data" is all that really matters in the end of the day, your experience might well be very different to others as you are looking for a certain kind of place in a certain level of finish. My criteria is very different, I look out for 2 bed terraces as an alternative to a flat, 2 beds were being listed a year ago around £290K in Dorset, £240K has been more common recently.

Saw a couple of terraces come on the market today at £215K @Bus Stop Boxer in Cranbourne.

None of this is sale prices just asking prices, the only data I can use in that case is mortgage lending as @HousePriceMania alludes.

Edit to add, Scrub that, the terraces at 215 are bloody auction listings, sorry my fuck up.

Edited March 12 by Bobthebuilder

[Bus Stop Boxer]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It is the inheritance tax treatment of woodland that largely drives the smaller woodlands.co.uk business. I looked into buying some land years ago for shooting, it was a horrible experience with everybody's greedy paws out to grab you, never again.

As they say in Dorset, "Everyone and their dog wants a piece of land".

I, like you, have spent big chunks of time down ere and up there. Dorset is soaked through with sharks and outright cunts.

Agents and trades all out to get you down ere. I did 3 houses up in London to varying degrees and never encountered some of the shit housery that goes on down here. It is not genteel in the cuntry any more than it was in Walthamstow 20 years ago.

The greed on display in my patch currently is laughable. In my town there are over 150 pwoperdees for sale under £350k. Virtually fuck all is shifting. There's one agent who is pricing sensibly and they are getting most of the sales if there are any.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My criteria is very different, I look out for 2 bed terraces as an alternative to a flat, 2 beds were being listed a year ago around £290K in Dorset, £240K has been more common recently.

 

Thats around 90k-125k here. I dont think housing benefit over here is as high (obviously not).
https://www.propertypal.com/6-runnymede-drive-belfast/935007
https://www.propertypal.com/76-nevis-avenue-belfast/935006

https://www.propertypal.com/19-pembroke-street-belfast/934545

https://www.propertypal.com/28-glenvarlock-street-belfast/934539

https://www.propertypal.com/91-alliance-road-belfast/934448

https://www.propertypal.com/25-seaview-drive-belfast/934447

Always said that price of 2 beds is directly linked to the amount of housing benefit (+yield etc).
When HB went to universal credit etc the btl folk couldnt get rid of 2 beds over here and in parts of merseyside quick enough as the new system wouldnt cover their rent. That put a lie to the 'we'll just put rents up' and the 'thousands will be homeless' etc.

Would be interested to know Bob if those type of houses are similar to the ones you are looking at in terms of layout, size, construction etc. Or what would be comparable price wise.

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Would be interested to know Bob if those type of houses are similar to the ones you are looking at in terms of layout, size, construction etc. Or what would be comparable price wise.

Bloody hell those are cheap. Heres some for comparison.

2 bedroom semi-detached house for sale in Whitecliff Mill Street, Blandford Forum, Dorset, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)

2 bedroom terraced house for sale in Blandford, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)

2 bedroom end of terrace house for sale in Blandford, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)

This one is currently the cheapest one in the area.

2 bedroom end of terrace house for sale in Dorset Street, Blandford Forum, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)

Absolute chasm in price difference to Belfast.

[HousePriceMania]

Say this land pop up on rightmove today £3600 per acre.

Land is cheap despite them not making any more.