Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spunko]

Looks like a case of the bank not extending any more funding?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141576878#/?channel=RES_BUY

Or could just be moving in kitchen units quickly to get past mortgage approval requirements, who knows.

[Hardhat]

4 hours ago, spunko said:

Looks like a case of the bank not extending any more funding?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141576878#/?channel=RES_BUY

Or could just be moving in kitchen units quickly to get past mortgage approval requirements, who knows.

Strange one, looks like all the prep work has been done for renovation and then stopped. Maybe they found some things that would have blown the budget. 

Would be fantastic if (tastefully) restored.

[Bobthebuilder]

@Bus Stop Boxer

I notice Philip Road has been reduced again.

[King Penda]

On 14/03/2024 at 19:50, spunko said:

Thats useful as you can now load the prices from 2019 into the Nationwide House Price Calculator.
 

My neighbours are trying to flog the house they bought in 2016 for £1.2m but they aren't getting viewings. It's overpriced. I just put it into this:

Hmmm.....

 

"Safe as houses". You could have earned more in those 3 years sitting on the dole.

 

Well it’s getting daft when 2 bed terraces are renting out for 500 in stoke (some very nice ones are 650 allegedly).I know it’s only zoopla with the estimate but the fucking estimate has gone up by another 1k . That’s 3k this fucking year ffs.3 bed semis are also increasing big fuck 

[Wight Flight]

26 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Well it’s getting daft when 2 bed terraces are renting out for 500 in stoke (some very nice ones are 650 allegedly).I know it’s only zoopla with the estimate but the fucking estimate has gone up by another 1k . That’s 3k this fucking year ffs.3 bed semis are also increasing big fuck 

When an £85k home rents for £500 you know you are in a shit area.

[King Penda]

8 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

When an £85k home rents for £500 you know you are in a shit area.

That’s all of stoke

[Wight Flight]

8 minutes ago, King Penda said:

That’s all of stoke

I had a brief fling with a burd that lived in Stoke.

it was interesting.

[apples]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/why-its-tony-blairs-fault-that-you-cannot-buy-a-house/ (full article text in quote)

Why it’s Tony Blair’s fault if you can’t buy a house

Quote

Young Britons are the victims of the former PMs bubble of perceived prosperity

n the last decade of Tory rule alone, marriages have fallen by up to 66pc in some younger age brackets, births have fallen by 12pc and levels of under-employment have exploded, with one in eight of those aged 25 to 49 – and more than four in 10 under-25s – no longer engaged in any meaningful form of employment or education.

The reason for all of this is probably quite simple: young Britons have nowhere to live.

Just 19pc of under-25s now own their own home in England, while less than one in three of those in the 25-34 age group are on the property ladder.

Such damning statistics are not unique to England either. Across the UK, under-40s on good wages are finding it increasingly difficult to stand on their own two feet.

The housing bubble that first popped up under Tony Blair makes not only buying a home a fantasy for the majority of under-40s, but is also pushing up rents, resulting in people living at home for longer, delaying a family, and, in the most obvious example that something is awry: giving up on work.

Millennials are not inherently lazy. They are the victims of short-sighted government, which has done everything in its power to artificially inflate the value of property in order to create a bubble of perceived prosperity.

You may own a “half-a-million pound” house, but unless you plan to cash it in and live under a bridge you’re not any better off than you were in 1997 when it was probably worth a fifth of that.

In fact, far from making Britain richer, our ever-increasing property prices are making us poorer as a society, robbing young people of any aspiration and lowering their standard of living more generally.

Take the estate I grew up on. When one of the semis sells, it’s immediately doubled in size by the new owner before they even move in. Many are “lived in” for two years to avoid capital gains.

The rest aren’t, but like the ones that are flipped by the developers, they’re almost always turned into gargantuan McMansions with planning-free extensions slapped on the side, and unused bedrooms shoved in the loft.

The area is now almost devoid of the families, as the entire estate is pushed out of the price-range of anyone other than retirees or builders with half-a-million in cash to spend.

This trend towards “over-extensions” has driven up the prices of nearby terraced areas too, as middle-class families priced out of suburbia drop £330,000 on the two-up two-downs that working-class families once aspired to buy – but can now only hope of renting.

There’s nothing unique about where I grew up, either. Since the turn of the century, there’s been a roughly 25pc decline in home ownership among younger Britons. 

This figure began to nosedive off the charts during Tony Blair’s tenure, when buy-to-let mortgages were allowed to rise seven-fold in as many years thanks to his policy of shovelling billions in housing benefit directly into landlords’ pockets.

Far from getting better under the Tories, home-ownership has flat-lined, with the heirs to Sir Tony tearing up restrictions around home extensions and continuing the later New Labour obsession with low interest rates to encourage buyers to take out larger and larger mortgages.

It’s such an ill-thought-out strategy. The Tories could have tried to reform the economy and implement a much-needed industrial plan to get Britain growing, but instead they appear to have made a conscious decision to ensure that the various economic bubbles Blair used to keep the economy afloat are never allowed to burst. 

We see this most dramatically in the Tories’ turbo-charging of mass immigration to artificially inflate GDP figures, but also in their unsustainable use of money printing to keep interest rates low, and the property market from ever seeing a painful – but necessary – market readjustment.

In fact, you only have to look at how the Tories have embraced Blair’s obsession with universities to realise how little deviation there has been since 2010. 

More than a third of school-leavers now go on to higher education, with the end result being that the universities sector has morphed into a £130bn ponzi scheme that churns out nearly a million debt-saddled graduates a year.

What, though, is the real value of forcing more and more kids towards higher education? Most British graduates are so poorly educated they’d struggle to give you change from a tenner let alone bring anything beneficial to a business that a school-leaver would not.

In fact, far from creating a highly skilled labour force, as claimed, all Sir Tony and his heirs’ obsession with higher education has done is create yet another economic bubble – student rentals – filling our university towns with nearly three million kids, many of whom would otherwise still be in the childhood bedrooms, working and earning money towards a deposit.

In York, where I live, one in seven residents is now a student, with a substantial percentage of these 29,000 people housed in former council houses that the modern-day Sierra Man would struggle to afford.

Even the council’s own housing plan noted that York’s obsession with ever-increasing student numbers “removes properties from the owner occupied sector as they are bought on a buy to rent basis”.  

Clearly, young locals are going to struggle to outbid a buy-to-let landlord able to fill each bedroom – and lounge – with five or six students with taxpayer-funded loans to waste.

But, as if the problem wasn’t already bad enough, the University of York expects student numbers to grow by another 20pc by 2026 – despite there being nowhere near that number of extra dorms being built.

You only have to look at London to see what impact such an imbalance between supply and demand can have on people’s quality of life. The average house price in the capital now stands at just shy of three-quarters of a million pounds, while the mean average salary is only £44,370 before tax.

Given that a couple on average salaries could, at best, borrow around £400,000 for a mortgage, it’s become essentially impossible for the “average” London couple to buy the “average” London house without being given £350,000 from relatives. Singletons stand no chance.

Again, the unaffordability of housing in London is both a symptom and a cause of Sir Tony’s toxic economic legacy, and, in particular, both Labour and the Tories’ reliance on importing cheap foreign labour to stimulate economic growth and keep wages low.

Politicians may not like to admit it, but new arrivals need somewhere to live, and this competition for housing drives up rents and house prices for everyone. 

What’s more, when financially squeezed workers leave the capital for lower rents and mortgages elsewhere, new immigrants are needed to fill the jobs that they’ve left behind, creating an endless demand for new labour, ensuring property prices and rents can never fall back to affordable levels. 

Of course, you can’t blame immigrants for getting on and filling these empty vacancies, just as you can’t blame British workers for wanting more from life than a room in a shared-house.

The fault lies solely with the Government and its refusal to implement a long-term economic plan for the country.

Its obsession with house prices and forcing down interest rates is having a negative impact on everything from the stock market to industrial output, as hundreds of billions of pounds that would otherwise have been invested in the stock market or used by the banks to help businesses grow, is being ploughed into the one thing guaranteed to give high returns: property.

It’s something the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) has been warning about since the late 80s, explaining that the high price of property, and the temptation to thus invest in it, will result in “a lack of incentive to save and, in consequence, lower rates of saving, investment, and economic growth than would otherwise occur”.

Far from heading such warnings, though, the supposedly business-minded Conservatives seem to be obsessed with maintaining Blair’s modern-day tulip boom.

For example, the Tories have wasted billions on giveaways like Help to Buy, which, as a report published by the IEA in February found, does very little to help get young people on the property ladder and instead stimulates demand for a product in short supply thus raising prices further.

It’s something we saw writ large after the first lockdown, when the Government pumped vast sums of taxpayers’ money into a “stamp duty holiday” to prevent prices collapsing.

This socialist giveaway, which will have to be paid for by future generations’ taxes, didn’t benefit poorer first-time buyers – who might have been able to buy a property had the market been allowed to take its natural course. 

Instead, existing home-owners avoided paying the taxes they would otherwise have paid, while simultaneously being able to sell their existing homes at the same high prices as before the lockdowns – despite the fact that half the country was on state handouts or furlough at the time.

As Harrison Griffiths from the IEA pointed out, politicians appear to have abandoned younger voters in order to sustain the feel-rich effect that high property prices imbue among older voters. 

“The Tories,” he explained, “are exclusively catering to their existing voter base, namely home-owning Baby Boomers, but in doing so, they have eroded their future electoral base.”

Such a short-sighted approach could prove disastrous for the party’s long-term survival.

A surprisingly high number of millennials voted Conservative in 2010, with one in three younger voters casting their ballot for the self-proclaimed party of aspiration, business and growth.

Its choices over the past 14 years, however, have largely turned younger voters away from the Tories. 

Indeed, research by the Resolution Foundation in February suggested that a low-turnout among millennials may be Rishi Sunak’s only chance at winning the coming election, with the high cost of housing being a major factor in the antipathy many young people have for the party.

In reality, such hopes of re-election are, like the property market, a bubble just waiting to be popped.

Edited March 17 by apples
fuck Bliar

[spunko]

27 minutes ago, apples said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/why-its-tony-blairs-fault-that-you-cannot-buy-a-house/ (full article text in quote)

Why it’s Tony Blair’s fault if you can’t buy a house

 

Quote

We see this most dramatically in the Tories’ turbo-charging of mass immigration to artificially inflate GDP figures, but also in their unsustainable use of money printing to keep interest rates low, and the property market from ever seeing a painful – but necessary – market readjustment.

In fact, you only have to look at how the Tories have embraced Blair’s obsession with universities to realise how little deviation there has been since 2010. 

More than a third of school-leavers now go on to higher education, with the end result being that the universities sector has morphed into a £130bn ponzi scheme that churns out nearly a million debt-saddled graduates a year.

What, though, is the real value of forcing more and more kids towards higher education? Most British graduates are so poorly educated they’d struggle to give you change from a tenner let alone bring anything beneficial to a business that a school-leaver would not.

I'm going to be honest I never thought I'd see this kind of article being published by the MSM.

Edited March 17 by spunko

[spygirl]

More IO mortgage fuckwittery.

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2024/mar/17/church-of-england-accused-of-acting-like-a-loan-shark-over-vicars-widow-falling-313000-in-debt

In this case, as things stand, the original £55,000 looks likely to end up costing £400,000 or more. That is arguably not a good look when the archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, famously declared war on payday lenders and predatory lending practices.

No, it really fucking doesn't cost 400k.

They had a scheme, set up to allow vicars to have a house. They could have paid capital off, they sat in the House fir 30 fucking years ffs.

The wife will die and CoE takes it reward.

Just Pheobe doesnt get the house doesn't make it wrong.

[One percent]

14 minutes ago, spygirl said:

More IO mortgage fuckwittery.

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2024/mar/17/church-of-england-accused-of-acting-like-a-loan-shark-over-vicars-widow-falling-313000-in-debt

In this case, as things stand, the original £55,000 looks likely to end up costing £400,000 or more. That is arguably not a good look when the archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, famously declared war on payday lenders and predatory lending practices.

No, it really fucking doesn't cost 400k.

They had a scheme, set up to allow vicars to have a house. They could have paid capital off, they sat in the House fir 30 fucking years ffs.

The wife will die and CoE takes it reward.

Just Pheobe doesnt get the house doesn't make it wrong.

How does over 80 percent stake in the property become 17 percent?  From the article 

Norris says the purchase price was about £66,000, and the loan the couple got, on which they paid interest only, was for £55,000 – about 83% of the price.

When Norris started helping her mother manage her affairs, she was keen to find out more about the loan. In her initial exchanges with the board last autumn, it indicated it would cost Rose about £60,000 to pay off the mortgage. That was because, it said in an email, that her equity share was 83.3%.

But a few weeks later, Norris was told this was an error and that the equity share was actually less than 17%. As a result, said an email, the amount Rose would have to hand over to settle the mortgage was just under £300,000.

[onlyme]

17 minutes ago, spunko said:

 

I'm going to be honest I never thought I'd see this kind of article being published by the MSM.

Telegraph seem to have been hit with the common sense stcik for a year or two, similar on many topics. They are very much the outlier though.

[spygirl]

Total made up wibble from The I

 

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/middle-class-cant-afford-lives-ashamed-admit-2947413

We’d asked a broker to find us a new mortgage to bring down our massive monthly repayments. He told us he had a deal in the bag that would save us several hundred quid a month. It was a big relief. That was, until the mini-budget. The broker was back on the phone within 24 hours telling us that the offer had been withdrawn. The best deal he could now do represented a small increase on our previous repayments. We were back to square one. No, it was actually worse.

 

 

Show me the numbers.

10y yield is same as it was in 22

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-10y?countrycode=bx

 

 

Self employed journo ffs

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/sam-delaney-a0b9a931

 

 

Flat 5, 231 - 233, Ladbroke Grove, London, Greater London W10 6HG

Flat

£590,000

12 Jul 2019

Leasehold

No other historical records

Your not middle class.

Your fucked.

[Bornagain]

On 15/03/2024 at 09:36, HousePriceMania said:

Looks like John Lewis has pulled out of Build To Rent

Was a mental decision in the first place.

 

 

She announced the intention to get into that kind of business and within a few minutes we DOSBODders recognised that this was a spectacularly stupid thing for John Lewis to get involved in.

How much did she spunk away in internal and external consultant fees before reaching the same conclusion ?

The mind fucking boggles.

 

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

She announced the intention to get into that kind of business and within a few minutes we DOSBODders recognised that this was a spectacularly stupid thing for John Lewis to get involved in.

How much did she spunk away in internal and external consultant fees before reaching the same conclusion ?

The mind fucking boggles.

 

But weren’t there any checks and balances?  Surely someone else at JL must have had at least the intelligence of the average dosbodder. I know absolutely nothing of economics and business but even I know when something doesn’t pass the sniff test.  

[Bornagain]

1 minute ago, One percent said:

But weren’t there any checks and balances?  Surely someone else at JL must have had at least the intelligence of the average dosbodder. I know absolutely nothing of economics and business but even I know when something doesn’t pass the sniff test.  

God knows what made them think that getting into property rentals was a good idea.

Perhaps if they had a leadership team that was truly diverse in the way they think, believe and act, then somebody would have put their hand up and said WTF...

However, I imagine that to criticise the idea of the top dog is comit career suicide - so the poor bugger who can see the inevitable result just keeps his/her mouth shut.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, Bornagain said:

God knows what made them think that getting into property rentals was a good idea.

Perhaps if they had a leadership team that was truly diverse in the way they think, believe and act, then somebody would have put their hand up and said WTF...

However, I imagine that to criticise the idea of the top dog is comit career suicide - so the poor bugger who can see the inevitable result just keeps his/her mouth shut.

Yeah, we’ve all been there, thinking wtf but knowing it’s career suicide to say anything.  

[AlfredTheLittle]

4 hours ago, apples said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/why-its-tony-blairs-fault-that-you-cannot-buy-a-house/ (full article text in quote)

Why it’s Tony Blair’s fault if you can’t buy a house

This is a great article, just a shame it's taken the media so long (about 18 years?) to catch on - maybe we're finally reaching the tipping point where mainstream journalists are themselves negatively impacted by high house prices, and wanting falls could become the majority view?

[Frank Hovis]

9 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

This is a great article, just a shame it's taken the media so long (about 18 years?) to catch on - maybe we're finally reaching the tipping point where mainstream journalists are themselves negatively impacted by high house prices, and wanting falls could become the majority view?

 

That will have a lot to do with it.

Go back a bit and most journos had a string of BtLs and second homes, old Kirstie now makes Christmas decorations out of toilet roll inners but used to get really emotional about people, I think she name checked HPC, wanting house prices to crash saying they were wicked or evil.

These people, through their reliance upon house prices only ever going up, had a deep attachment to that as an article of faith. Many MPs were just the same.

Now the older journos / MP are beginning to retire and the balance is tipping to those under forty who can't afford to buy a reasonable home let alone a string of BtLs.

And that will mark a fundamental shift in the message from ever increasing house prices are good to high house prices being toxic to society.

[spygirl]

BBC front page kick off -

New mortgage deals being pulled within days

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68574065

Mortgage deals are typically on offer for just 15 days before being pulled, despite homeowners and buyers having the widest choice for 16 years.

This is the shortest shelf-life in six months, according to financial information service Moneyfacts.

As a result, people have little time to decide when rates are volatile.

This is spring FFS.

Every thing os meant to be rosy n going great guns.

U can loads of regional Nigels, Quentins, ringing up the BBC, to complain about talking  the market down.

 

 

[spygirl]

About 1.6 million existing borrowers have relatively cheap fixed-rate deals expiring this year, so need to make their minds up.

Johnny Abbott, from Loughborough, falls into that category and is watching deals with increasing concern.

The 39-year-old and wife Sophie, who have three children, are weighing up whether to get a new mortgage when their current deal comes to an end in July. The alternative is to move to a slightly bigger home that needs renovating, and where the mortgage is only slightly higher.

Everything, Mr Abbott admits, feels like a gamble at the moment. Unless rates start to fall soon, they will have to cut back on costs whichever option they choose. That means no holiday, fewer swimming lessons for the children, no gym or TV subscription.

"We don't have a massive income, but we feel grateful to be where we are - able to manage costs, and not drowning in them," the charity debt centre manager said.

"We will just have to do what we can to make things stretch."

[spygirl]

Thats a non job FFS.

https://www.newlifeloughborough.com/community-action/christians-against-poverty/

As a church we want to serve our local community and one of our ways of doing that is through Christians Against Poverty, our debt centre which is managed by Johnny Abbott. Here families and individuals can become debt free with the help of a personal budgeting system and from the support from Johnny and a volunteer support worker.

[spygirl]

Ill got further,.

Thats something youd volunteer for, free of pay.

Making a job about something that should be done for free is fucked, and is something the happy clappies are very keen on - creating non jobs, and giving them to friends n family.

And why in fuck take debt advice from someone who appears to have fucked up?

 

 

[spygirl]

These happy clappies are all run on tithes.

So not only is sad sack paying £££ in tax, then are then expected to cough up another 10% to the the church.

The bible provided as good guide - 10% of income for good causes/commity.

If you are paying 40% tax then you are good causes x 4

 

 

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, spygirl said:

Total made up wibble from The I

 

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/middle-class-cant-afford-lives-ashamed-admit-2947413

We’d asked a broker to find us a new mortgage to bring down our massive monthly repayments. He told us he had a deal in the bag that would save us several hundred quid a month. It was a big relief. That was, until the mini-budget. The broker was back on the phone within 24 hours telling us that the offer had been withdrawn. The best deal he could now do represented a small increase on our previous repayments. We were back to square one. No, it was actually worse.

 

 

Show me the numbers.

10y yield is same as it was in 22

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-10y?countrycode=bx

 

 

Self employed journo ffs

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/sam-delaney-a0b9a931

 

 

Flat 5, 231 - 233, Ladbroke Grove, London, Greater London W10 6HG

Flat

£590,000

12 Jul 2019

Leasehold

No other historical records

Your not middle class.

Your fucked.

We’d asked a broker to find us a new mortgage to bring down our massive monthly repayments. He told us he had a deal in the bag that would save us several hundred quid a month.

The only thing to bring down a 'massive monthly repayments' is paying off the debt.

How naive, typical journo.

Contributing some BS story, blaming Team Truss for their own fuckwittery.

Waahhahhha