Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

For the same reason that governments prefer inflation to deflation.

If you think that something is going to keep going up in price then you will bring forward your pruchase, and vice versa.

Of course they would make a lot more money if there was a big crash and house became seriously cheap, then the transactions would go through the roof because of the pent up demand.

Though in London through the last crash it took eight years from high (88) to low (96) and transactions only started to really run after the 1996 price low. Eight years is a long time to wait.

 

2% commission on a crap 4 bed house in the shires up for £700K is £14K for doing nothing.

The used to make £200-£500 for a house sale in 2000.

That's why they all sponsor roundabouts and football teams, they've been coining it in.

 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

UK estate agents more optimistic about house price outlook

Rics survey points to more properties coming on the market as sector starts to ‘wake up’

 

ha ha ha.

Now bear in mind that EAs prob not recruited many people in last 20y, most EAs are going to be 40+

What can a 40y+ EA do, other than EAing?

Supermarket tills?

Road sweeper.

They *have* to believe in the onwards n upwards wank, otherwise they are jumping off bridges.

The reading — which was the highest since June 2022 — came as the professional body said a separate index tracking new instructions to sell climbed to 21 in February, the best figure since October 2020.

That was when rates started moving up.

Thi survey would have been when they were kidding themselves with rates going to fall ...

Even if IR fall, mortgage rates and lending will barely budge - the big icnrease in bad debts will force that.

 

 

The professional body’s survey is closely monitored as a timely measure of the property market. After house price expectations remained in negative territory throughout 2023, Thursday’s report suggests that improvements in the latest data on house prices and mortgage approvals will continue.

 

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

For the same reason that governments prefer inflation to deflation.

If you think that something is going to keep going up in price then you will bring forward your pruchase, and vice versa.

Of course they would make a lot more money if there was a big crash and house became seriously cheap, then the transactions would go through the roof because of the pent up demand.

Though in London through the last crash it took eight years from high (88) to low (96) and transactions only started to really run after the 1996 price low. Eight years is a long time to wait.

 

Newer chart - 

[spunko]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

Thats useful as you can now load the prices from 2019 into the Nationwide House Price Calculator.
 

My neighbours are trying to flog the house they bought in 2016 for £1.2m but they aren't getting viewings. It's overpriced. I just put it into this:

Hmmm.....

 

"Safe as houses". You could have earned more in those 3 years sitting on the dole.

 

Edited March 14 by spunko

[roundhouse]

16 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

Now bear in mind that EAs prob not recruited many people in last 20y, most EAs are going to be 40+

What can a 40y+ EA do, other than EAing?

Supermarket tills?

Road sweeper.

They *have* to believe in the onwards n upwards wank, otherwise they are jumping off bridges.

 

Bolded bits. Interestingly, in the covid bubbling beginning a few years ago, one EA I was viewing a house with got quite infuriated with the housing situation (ie choosing words carefully aka professionally but hardly able to contain themselves at the opportunity to say what they really felt to someone of equivalent age, let's say they were over 55 then, nearer 60 now). They said they couldn't now employ someone of younger age as they had never known anything like now (the bubble) and that it would all end very badly. Younger people just wouldn't have a clue how to manage that situation or the market when the change came, and only older EAs with experience of previous downturns would... and so it went on. Twas music to my ears... so I'm quite happy to buy via an older EA!

 

 

[Calcutta]

Freehold houses round here used to start at 200k+.

My first rm page is full of 'guide price' now. They've been coming down quite rapidly and I've just checked.

7x 3bed+ houses with a guide price of 85k and 3 @ 90k.

If that guide price becomes the real price it's essentially bogof.

I just wish I had a better idea what 'guide price' actually means. It's got to be some spiv bullshit.

[HousePriceMania]

Looks like John Lewis has pulled out of Build To Rent

Was a mental decision in the first place.

 

 

[onlyme]

45 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Freehold houses round here used to start at 200k+.

My first rm page is full of 'guide price' now. They've been coming down quite rapidly and I've just checked.

7x 3bed+ houses with a guide price of 85k and 3 @ 90k.

If that guide price becomes the real price it's essentially bogof.

I just wish I had a better idea what 'guide price' actually means. It's got to be some spiv bullshit.

Used to be reserved just for auction properties, now agents that are beginning to list places at more sensible pricing  that are somewhat near where the market,  maybe using the term to (hopefully) attract multiple bidders. bit like the term priced to sell.

[spunko]

20 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Looks like John Lewis has pulled out of Build To Rent

Was a mental decision in the first place.

 

 

It was obviously just PR guff. Similar to the Amazon deliveries by drone that won't ever happen.

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, spunko said:

It was obviously just PR guff. Similar to the Amazon deliveries by drone that won't ever happen.

No, I dont think it was PR guff.

I reckon ms White was presented with a balance sheet stuffed full of underused/unneeded  real estate.

And goes - Lets build social housing.

Never ever underestimate how dumb people from the public sector are.

 

 

 

 

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

No, I dont think it was PR guff.

I reckon ms White was presented with a balance sheet stuffed full of underused/unneeded  real estate.

And goes - Lets build social housing.

Never ever underestimate how dumb people from the public sector are.

 

 

 

 

Alex Groundwater - frequent co presenter on Charlie's stremas is involved heavily in commericial property, mainly for medical sector recently it seems. Anyway he went through the figures once on one strem related to the conversion of typical office building layouts to residential. Basicaly the layout / size is all wrong for subdivision, riddled with compromises in terms of layout of individual huosing units with suitable windows / light, expensive and basicaly uneconomic in most cases. Someone at M&S forgot to ask some basic questions.

I don't see how banks / hedge funds are goign to make out like bandits becoming landlords either, their struture / cost base for daya to day running / operations is all wrong.  I suppose wha they have in undesreved amounts is access to cheap money so they look to leverge that on anything they can.

[Democorruptcy]

14 hours ago, spunko said:

Thats useful as you can now load the prices from 2019 into the Nationwide House Price Calculator.
 

My neighbours are trying to flog the house they bought in 2016 for £1.2m but they aren't getting viewings. It's overpriced. I just put it into this:

Hmmm.....

 

"Safe as houses". You could have earned more in those 3 years sitting on the dole.

 

How much are they asking? If you put 1.2m in the Nationwide for end 2016 it returns 1.51m. My spreadsheet returns 1.55m CPI and 1.7m RPI so quite close.

On that Nationwide calculator if you put 100k in for end 1996 to end 2023 it jumps to 470k. In my spreadsheet from 1996 to end 2023 100k CPI becomes 189k with RPI 243k. They must have huge increases in the early years, I remember Halifax were 25% in 2003 when CPI/RPI were around 2%.

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Alex Groundwater - frequent co presenter on Charlie's stremas is involved heavily in commericial property, mainly for medical sector recently it seems. Anyway he went through the figures once on one strem related to the conversion of typical office building layouts to residential. Basicaly the layout / size is all wrong for subdivision, riddled with compromises in terms of layout of individual huosing units with suitable windows / light, expensive and basicaly uneconomic in most cases. Someone at M&S forgot to ask some basic questions.

I don't see how banks / hedge funds are goign to make out like bandits becoming landlords either, their struture / cost base for daya to day running / operations is all wrong.  I suppose wha they have in undesreved amounts is access to cheap money so they look to leverge that on anything they can.

 

 

You can't get blood out of a stone.

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

37 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No, I dont think it was PR guff.

I reckon ms White was presented with a balance sheet stuffed full of underused/unneeded  real estate.

And goes - Lets build social housing.

Never ever underestimate how dumb people from the public sector are.

 

 

 

 

Why was it such a bad idea? If they already have the space available it seems like quite a good plan to me, particularly as rents are mental. I'm obviously missing something though as it clearly didn't work! 

[spygirl]

33 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Alex Groundwater - frequent co presenter on Charlie's stremas is involved heavily in commericial property, mainly for medical sector recently it seems. Anyway he went through the figures once on one strem related to the conversion of typical office building layouts to residential. Basicaly the layout / size is all wrong for subdivision, riddled with compromises in terms of layout of individual huosing units with suitable windows / light, expensive and basicaly uneconomic in most cases. Someone at M&S forgot to ask some basic questions.

I don't see how banks / hedge funds are goign to make out like bandits becoming landlords either, their struture / cost base for daya to day running / operations is all wrong.  I suppose wha they have in undesreved amounts is access to cheap money so they look to leverge that on anything they can.

To be honest. most commercial building from the 80s are unsuitable;e for what remains of the org in the 2020s.

There were enture floors dedicated to Vaxs, which the obligatory poisonous gas to put out fires.

And entire floors of admin support.

I go in some orgs now - phone someone to let me in - no doorperson, then walk thru vast empty expanses where all the minicomputers and admin staff were.

If you ve a commercial building then knock it down and rebuild i nth envelope.

They wont, cos most of the housing demand is from single mums n migrants.

Change bennies and the demand goes.

Very much Death of London - working people are moving out, and new workers are not arriving.

 

 

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Why was it such a bad idea? If they already have the space available it seems like quite a good plan to me, particularly as rents are mental. I'm obviously missing something though as it clearly didn't work! 

Because the site was selected for retail not residential.

Because the demand is mainly from people on bennies.

Im all for several new Barbicans being built in provincial cities n towns. It would be great.

But it has to be built for residential.

And high density housing really has to populated by non scum/working people

 

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

 

You can't get blood out of a stone.

 

You cant get London rent out of someone whos WFH from Yawk 9/10 days.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Looks like John Lewis has pulled out of Build To Rent

Was a mental decision in the first place.

Dutch disease IMO. Literally the only compelling return on capital was property, so every business tried turning itself into a property business.

[Boon]

The London rental inventory lows was around a year and a bit ago. It's amazing that there are now double the number of properties available for rent today as there were at the end of 2022. The number of properties for sale by comparison is only up around 2% or so.

But it's still way higher than covid, here's a typical example of the free market, ie flats that have lots of supply around them

£2k is a kite-flying price really, and I have no doubt that maybe some people would have paid it out of desperation during that time where supply was low, but if their contract is up they should be able to save money now.

To me the real market force is the BTR flats, I've seen these come down in price which I think is also forcing down the prices of private rentals. Those are never priced for full occupancy so constantly have availability and the churn must be quite big on them too as they have RPI rent rises.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

I reckon ms White was presented with a balance sheet stuffed full of underused/unneeded  real estate.

And goes - Lets build social housing.

I will take the opposite view, and say she was probably brought in specifically to do it.

Her civil service background never made any sense for Chairwog of a retailer, and the mainstream press were oddly open to hinting she was a diversity hire from the off*, yet she would be perfect to head up a Blairite public/private partnership housing project to feast on taxpayer money. June 2019 was when she took up the post, and presumably was busy with behind the scenes stuff waiting for Brexit to run it's course until first COVID hit and then interest rates went up tanking the calculated numbers.

*Almost like they were in on a distraction.

[mh9000]

47 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Because the site was selected for retail not residential.

Because the demand is mainly from people on bennies.

Im all for several new Barbicans being built in provincial cities n towns. It would be great.

But it has to be built for residential.

And high density housing really has to populated by non scum/working people

 

You cant get London rent out of someone whos WFH from Yawk 9/10 days.

Speaking of which, wtf is going on with this place.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144827369

sold for 275k in ‘21

sold etc presumably around 375k in ‘24, all they’ve done is painted?

Has to be someone WFH on London pay? Seen several other similar examples there and north Leeds that have actually gone through not just stc.

they seem to be defying interest rate rises etc so far.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

It was obviously just PR guff. Similar to the Amazon deliveries by drone that won't ever happen.

I think JL has serious footfall problems.Conversion to resi is a logical step for the sort of people they have running it.

as you say tho,was never gonna happen

2 hours ago, onlyme said:

Alex Groundwater - frequent co presenter on Charlie's stremas is involved heavily in commericial property, mainly for medical sector recently it seems. Anyway he went through the figures once on one strem related to the conversion of typical office building layouts to residential. Basicaly the layout / size is all wrong for subdivision, riddled with compromises in terms of layout of individual huosing units with suitable windows / light, expensive and basicaly uneconomic in most cases. Someone at M&S forgot to ask some basic questions.

I don't see how banks / hedge funds are goign to make out like bandits becoming landlords either, their struture / cost base for daya to day running / operations is all wrong.  I suppose wha they have in undesreved amounts is access to cheap money so they look to leverge that on anything they can.

I think that's it.I've seena few successful office conversion into premier inns but for resi it's chockfull of comprmosies that end up with undesirable falts.

2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Why was it such a bad idea? If they already have the space available it seems like quite a good plan to me, particularly as rents are mental. I'm obviously missing something though as it clearly didn't work! 

high ceilings

1 hour ago, Boon said:

The London rental inventory lows was around a year and a bit ago. It's amazing that there are now double the number of properties available for rent today as there were at the end of 2022. The number of properties for sale by comparison is only up around 2% or so.

But it's still way higher than covid, here's a typical example of the free market, ie flats that have lots of supply around them

£2k is a kite-flying price really, and I have no doubt that maybe some people would have paid it out of desperation during that time where supply was low, but if their contract is up they should be able to save money now.

To me the real market force is the BTR flats, I've seen these come down in price which I think is also forcing down the prices of private rentals. Those are never priced for full occupancy so constantly have availability and the churn must be quite big on them too as they have RPI rent rises.

fascinating insight thanks for the stats boon

[spygirl]

Markets capitulate to Fed on interest rates after months-long stand-off

Traders bet on three quarter-point cuts in 2024, down from expectation for six or seven at start of year

Its oss there might only be one cut.

[JoeDavola]

A reminder of the fallout from the awful building quality during the NI housing boom up to 2008:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68556099

These 2006 built flats had to be evacuated 5 years ago and they've still not fixed them. This is a prime city centre location.

[Cosmic]

35 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

This is a prime city centre location.

The article says Belfast? 

[spunko]

Looks like a case of the bank not extending any more funding?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141576878#/?channel=RES_BUY

Or could just be moving in kitchen units quickly to get past mortgage approval requirements, who knows.