Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[sancho panza]

On 08/03/2024 at 10:20, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Tick tock until the state pension is higher than the tax allowance.  Pension credit, a tax free benefit, for those that didn't bother with national insurance or savings is £11,343 compared to the State Pension of £11,502 from April. In my opinion it won't be tenable to have a tax allowance lower than the state pension and definitely not the pension credit.

 

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I'm on the market currently. Been on for a month. 3 viewings in first 10 days. Its all stopped dead.

Agent on phone this arvo wants me to reduce. Ringing everyone. I think they are properly shitting themselves.

I think we are on the precipice of all that was predicted on TOS.

I told him i fully understand but it would appear that this is not a crap shoot table i need a seat at.

I had already resigned myself to not shifting it last week. He might as well de-list it for all i care.

Arrears highest for 7 years and counting.

Girl at a playgroup I take the wee panza too,got gazundered last minute for £50k on a £400k bid.

She was raging.Not surpsied really,10% at the k,ast minute is legal but poor form.

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

Charlie has some good tips on picking the right agent / pricing, worth a listen if not already done so.

any ideea how he makes ih smoeny?

33 minutes ago, onlyme said:

No it’s in Staines, 2 bed 2 bath, freshly renovated, brand new heating system etc etc.

 

....

East side or West side?

Edited March 13 by sancho panza

[Bus Stop Boxer]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

You're not in Belfast are you.

Dorset.

[onlyme]

31 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

any ideea how he makes ih smoeny?

 

Has been selling software for EA's for many years I believe, also a buying agent / advisory service. Now looking at provding near real time HPI index based on current sales reported by agents/seller/buyers.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

I explained to agent as a holder of sponds, its in my interests to sit for a year and watch it all burn. Im 57 not 37 and due to pandemic fuckery i am NOT working again for anyone. So i dont have time or opportunity to earn back any mistakes i make now. I already made a mistake buying this fucking place 20 years ago...

There was a little gurgle of excitement beginning of the year, but they are clearly bricking it now. First time in about 20 years i have had an agent admit its all gone to shit so openly.

Wont be long before all of Sunaks SD hyped gains are written off.And it wont be long before i could buy place again outright with my savings.

Its not going to be me shoving £70-80k of my hard earned in to someone elses move and paying the agents bills.

I got my eye on a place that i would chuck £20-40k into, on top of my sale. No more.

I prefer to be a spectator now not a participant.

With Moving Home With Charlie and his mate Stig in the commentary box.

Buckle up.

[Wight Flight]

21 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I explained to agent as a holder of sponds, its in my interests to sit for a year and watch it all burn. Im 57 not 37 and due to pandemic fuckery i am NOT working again for anyone. So i dont have time or opportunity to earn back any mistakes i make now. I already made a mistake buying this fucking place 20 years ago...

There was a little gurgle of excitement beginning of the year, but they are clearly bricking it now. First time in about 20 years i have had an agent admit its all gone to shit so openly.

Wont be long before all of Sunaks SD hyped gains are written off.And it wont be long before i could buy place again outright with my savings.

Its not going to be me shoving £70-80k of my hard earned in to someone elses move and paying the agents bills.

I got my eye on a place that i would chuck £20-40k into, on top of my sale. No more.

I prefer to be a spectator now not a participant.

With Moving Home With Charlie and his mate Stig in the commentary box.

Buckle up.

Exactly this.

nobody is downsizing.

anyone with a brain wanting to upsize will be waiting to see what happens.

the market is frozen.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Just now, Jesus Wept said:

As long as you’ve got all your buying power in gold or other inflation resistant assets you’ll be fine. Relying on the housing market “crashing” in sterling is a big risk I suggest. 

Some gold.

[sleepwello'nights]

On 12/03/2024 at 10:40, Bobthebuilder said:

It is the inheritance tax treatment of woodland that largely drives the smaller woodlands.co.uk business.

Gotta keep up the supply of timber for pit props.

[Rare Bear]

On 12/03/2024 at 07:54, One percent said:

I think it will be immaterial when we are all living in a caliphate.   

 

It'll still matter. You could be a Catholic Muslim or a Protestant Muslim.

[Rare Bear]

On 12/03/2024 at 08:41, JoeDavola said:

Here's a wee story about the political divide in NI.

(For context I'm a Prod but I'm not even really a unionist, nor a republican if I could snap my fingers and make anything happen I'd love a completely economically independent NI but that's another story...)

....anyway, a number of years back I was chatting to someone in work who was someone I'd worked with for years and was friends with. I happened to use the word "mainland" in a sentence, to refer to the body of land that Scotland/England/Wales are on, and his face dropped and he informed me that I shouldn't be using that word that it would cause offence.

A couple months later I was out in a pub with some people from my previous job and I happened to utter the word "mainland" and one of the blokes there, in a joking manner but also clearly wanting to make a point, called me out on it.

It was just a word to refer to a bit of land. I meant nothing by it. Didn't stop those touchy Catholics taking offence!

My brother in law was working for an outfit that was taken over by an English firm. This was in Dublin and the brother in law is a Protestant. Anyway, someone came over from the English firm and he was addressing the Irish lot when he referred to the mainland. Didn't go down well with the workers, no matter what religion.

[ILikeCake]

34 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Exactly this.

nobody is downsizing.

anyone with a brain wanting to upsize will be waiting to see what happens.

the market is frozen.

We're currently looking to upsize but appreciate we're in the minority.  We want more kids and have seen a house that ticks nearly all of our boxes in an area we like so have decided to go for it.  Put ours on the market last week and it's had quite a bit of interest, mainly from divorcees downsizing.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, ILikeCake said:

We're currently looking to upsize but appreciate we're in the minority.  We want more kids and have seen a house that ticks nearly all of our boxes in an area we like so have decided to go for it.  Put ours on the market last week and it's had quite a bit of interest, mainly from divorcees downsizing.

Ah.

Boyle's law of housing.

Luckily I dodged that one.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I explained to agent as a holder of sponds, its in my interests to sit for a year and watch it all burn. Im 57 not 37 and due to pandemic fuckery i am NOT working again for anyone. So i dont have time or opportunity to earn back any mistakes i make now. I already made a mistake buying this fucking place 20 years ago...

There was a little gurgle of excitement beginning of the year, but they are clearly bricking it now. First time in about 20 years i have had an agent admit its all gone to shit so openly.

Wont be long before all of Sunaks SD hyped gains are written off.And it wont be long before i could buy place again outright with my savings.

Its not going to be me shoving £70-80k of my hard earned in to someone elses move and paying the agents bills.

I got my eye on a place that i would chuck £20-40k into, on top of my sale. No more.

I prefer to be a spectator now not a participant.

With Moving Home With Charlie and his mate Stig in the commentary box.

Buckle up.

Great post, your views must have melted the estate agents mind, well done sir.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Great post, your views must have melted the estate agents mind, well done sir.

Cheers.

I'm on Railway Hotel watch. Still none of the 3 have shifted. Must be due another tweak soon.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Cheers.

I'm on Railway Hotel watch. Still none of the 3 have shifted. Must be due another tweak soon.

It will be great if you end up near the old station, we will be able to meet up for walks, cider and cheeseburgers.

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I explained to agent as a holder of sponds, its in my interests to sit for a year and watch it all burn. Im 57 not 37 and due to pandemic fuckery i am NOT working again for anyone.

I'm of a similar mindset but early 40s. I don't plan on still working past 50. My industry fintech is full of young, clueless chancers and old, clueless lifers. I can't tolerate them anymore; they just boil my piss. I wouldn't mind owning my own place, but I'm not going to extend my working life by a decade to do it.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

5 hours ago, spunko said:

I'm going to list mine shortly but I'm waiting for the weather to pick up so that it looks nice with all the flowers and sunny weather in the photos. Could you do the same?

It makes such a difference IMHO, seeing houses for sale with grey weather and bare trees doesn't appeal to me at all.

Yes have tried that in years prior. Garden is a month from hitting the spot really though.

[sancho panza]

39 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm of a similar mindset but early 40s. I don't plan on still working past 50. My industry fintech is full of young, clueless chancers and old, clueless lifers. I can't tolerate them anymore; they just boil my piss. I wouldn't mind owning my own place, but I'm not going to extend my working life by a decade to do it.

Mrs P when I met her was all about buying a hosue.Shes a saffa and both hthere and her e it's pushed on you.

I always rememberb showing her how a south african hosue wed looke dat 2016,,hadnt gone up in price since 2000 or so, it had jsut depreciated in dollar terms. it was a big moement for ehr.ever since Ive heard tell that to her pals....'that's not the hosue going up inmprice it's the rand devlauing'....etc etc.

now we're married ten years,still rent.dont fell soory for us.its nromal to her.we have a nice life.pad was circa £800k or so back in 2021 ofr  the LL. we rent it with the equivalnt of £250k in oil/baccy/telecoms shares bouhgt uring the coof bottom

local pikey-lovely lad- dropped by today to tell em the trees needed sorting.so I gave him the landlords number and said ring him.

roof is going to be fucked in  few years.we'll move somewher newer when the first drop lands /.

there's a damp problem looming in the snooker room...againn LL will get the keys if it gets annoying.

all Im saying is dont give up no yer dream of keeping your Bats/Imps/BP/Shell they give you options whereas a hosue jsut gives you bills imho.every time someone talks tmoem about buying a hsoeusn I jsut thinkof the implaications of saying goodby e to my bats/bp form the coof bottom and i jsutn get emmotinaol.not gonna happen ecxept for a fvery full price

we have had a recent look at where id like to retire to and undoftutenalty we may have to buy there. as the rental not many in munber.it''lll be a sad day waving off me bats

my views-dyor etc

 

Edited March 14 by sancho panza

[spygirl]

UK estate agents more optimistic about house price outlook

Rics survey points to more properties coming on the market as sector starts to ‘wake up’

 

ha ha ha.

Now bear in mind that EAs prob not recruited many people in last 20y, most EAs are going to be 40+

What can a 40y+ EA do, other than EAing?

Supermarket tills?

Road sweeper.

They *have* to believe in the onwards n upwards wank, otherwise they are jumping off bridges.

The reading — which was the highest since June 2022 — came as the professional body said a separate index tracking new instructions to sell climbed to 21 in February, the best figure since October 2020.

That was when rates started moving up.

Thi survey would have been when they were kidding themselves with rates going to fall ...

Even if IR fall, mortgage rates and lending will barely budge - the big icnrease in bad debts will force that.

 

 

The professional body’s survey is closely monitored as a timely measure of the property market. After house price expectations remained in negative territory throughout 2023, Thursday’s report suggests that improvements in the latest data on house prices and mortgage approvals will continue.

[JoeDavola]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

UK estate agents more optimistic about house price outlook

Rics survey points to more properties coming on the market as sector starts to ‘wake up’

 

ha ha ha.

Now bear in mind that EAs prob not recruited many people in last 20y, most EAs are going to be 40+

What can a 40y+ EA do, other than EAing?

Supermarket tills?

Road sweeper.

They *have* to believe in the onwards n upwards wank, otherwise they are jumping off bridges.

The reading — which was the highest since June 2022 — came as the professional body said a separate index tracking new instructions to sell climbed to 21 in February, the best figure since October 2020.

That was when rates started moving up.

Thi survey would have been when they were kidding themselves with rates going to fall ...

Even if IR fall, mortgage rates and lending will barely budge - the big icnrease in bad debts will force that.

 

 

The professional body’s survey is closely monitored as a timely measure of the property market. After house price expectations remained in negative territory throughout 2023, Thursday’s report suggests that improvements in the latest data on house prices and mortgage approvals will continue.

Also why is HPI a good thing for EA’s?

Surely the important thing for ea’s is number of transactions completed?

Riding prices that cripple transaction levels aren’t good.

Edited March 14 by JoeDavola

[Democorruptcy]

Full RICS report released this week. It says it's for Feb but noticed some comments relating to the budget, including:

Quote

 

Budget did nothing to help improve property market sadly

https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/February-2024_RICS-UK-Residential-Market-Survey.pdf

 

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Here;s hunt admitting they're market rigging criminals and that house prices are falling

 

 

[spygirl]

And so it begins, the initial small ripples as fixes end.

'We can’t sell our flat and can’t afford to live in it'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkvkv32e1ro

Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".

 

[spygirl]

HTB n end of ZIRP.

Fucked.

Gone bad after 7 years.

Last slowdown (89-96) it was really only people who bought 87 onwards who were fucked - ~5yish

This time, esp in London, it could be a lot of buyers from before 07 too, potentially 20y of buyers fucked.

 

He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month.

[spygirl]

Patrick's partner, Lewis, 40, works for the NHS. They qualified to buy the shared-ownership flat because of his key-worker status but to keep up with the bills he had to start working weekends, until the pressure took its toll on his health and he needed to take time off sick.

[Frank Hovis]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Also why is HPI a good thing for EA’s?

Surely the important thing for ea’s is number of transactions completed?

Riding prices that cripple transaction levels aren’t good.

 

For the same reason that governments prefer inflation to deflation.

If you think that something is going to keep going up in price then you will bring forward your pruchase, and vice versa.

Of course they would make a lot more money if there was a big crash and house became seriously cheap, then the transactions would go through the roof because of the pent up demand.

Though in London through the last crash it took eight years from high (88) to low (96) and transactions only started to really run after the 1996 price low. Eight years is a long time to wait.