Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[belfastchild]

14 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

What I am seeing less of is people selling decent if not spectacular well maintained family homes to move "up the ladder" - cause that just isn't happeng....e.g. in the old days someone might move up from a 3 bed semi to a detached. I think the 'ladder' is mostly dead now until the boomers start dying off an people inherit say half a house worth's equity.

So you're just not seeing many normal traditional family homes coming on at all because many if not most of the folk in them couldn't afford them at todays prices never mind afford to move up the ladder. So its mostly run down fixer uppers where people have died.

The example I like to use is my folks having paid a total pf about £60K in mortgage debt over their life (plus a shit load of interest of course!), that they finished paying in about 2011 when they retired and the last house they bid on a couple months back they were bidding £340K. Crazy money relative to the wages they ever earned.

I think we're pretty close to the single-person FTB not being a thing any more, but there's enough couples out there with BOMAD help from both sides to prop things up for the forseeable.

Was chatting to folk this week about this and there was a lull in housebuilding so slow down in available homes. Yo-yo effect of supply and demand. At the minute theres very little supply and a lot of demand.
Was up in Ballyclare the other day and the amount of housebuilding going on up there is unbelieveable. They will all come to the market soon so there will be shifts there. Notice a lot of other housing developments now underway or near completion newtownabbey/carrick/ballyclare/antrim etc so might be movement across the board.
Only downside is that they are not cheap so people will be looking higher prices for their old houses to bridge the gap to the newbuilds.

[JoeDavola]

5 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Was chatting to folk this week about this and there was a lull in housebuilding so slow down in available homes. Yo-yo effect of supply and demand. At the minute theres very little supply and a lot of demand.
Was up in Ballyclare the other day and the amount of housebuilding going on up there is unbelieveable. They will all come to the market soon so there will be shifts there. Notice a lot of other housing developments now underway or near completion newtownabbey/carrick/ballyclare/antrim etc so might be movement across the board.
Only downside is that they are not cheap so people will be looking higher prices for their old houses to bridge the gap to the newbuilds.

Is the demand just the next generation of Norn Irish young folk needing housed, or are thre still lots of folk moving over from GB/RoI to NI?

[Wight Flight]

47 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

We have two generations that know very little about saving and delayed gratification.

With interest rates below inflation for so long are you surprised?

 

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Is the demand just the next generation of Norn Irish young folk needing housed, or are thre still lots of folk moving over from GB/RoI to NI?

The GB thing seems to have slowed as it was mostly people selling up in GB to move to the coast here and retire/work from home. The house prices around the coast have skyrocketed so much, locals cant afford and the price differential with England has fallen. Its about 4-5k to just ship stuff from a 3 bed in England to NI at the minute.
The bidders in that price range seem to be locals, usually youngish blokes with parents in tow looking to kick them out asap.
Few Dublin investors still but they are being outbid (usually they offer about fair price or asking) by locals going fucking nuts. Heard a story this week of someone offering 15k above the previous offer (130k) for a house just to be in by July. Thats more than a years rental ffs! Then again decent rentals are hard to come by which is part of the reason more and more are looking to buy.

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Then again decent rentals are hard to come by which is part of the reason more and more are looking to buy.

Yeah big reason I've stayed is cause I love my rental so much.

£15K is basically 2 years rent for me, more really when you take all the costs that home ownership will come with that I dont have as a renter.

But I'm getting older and need to buy something!

[UmBongo]

Back in March 2023 when property hunting I offered a cheeky £135k on a flat with an asking price of £145k. Declined obviously.

Just checked to see if it sold. It did in October for £138,500, so they must have received that offer around June or July. So they waited an extra few months for an extra £3,500. 

[Frank Hovis]

23 minutes ago, UmBongo said:

Back in March 2023 when property hunting I offered a cheeky £135k on a flat with an asking price of £145k. Declined obviously.

Just checked to see if it sold. It did in October for £138,500, so they must have received that offer around June or July. So they waited an extra few months for an extra £3,500. 

 

That doesn't even sound cheeky, more like a typical offer.

[MightyTharg]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

What I am seeing less of is people selling decent if not spectacular well maintained family homes to move "up the ladder" -

Fewer?

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah big reason I've stayed is cause I love my rental so much.

£15K is basically 2 years rent for me, more really when you take all the costs that home ownership will come with that I dont have as a renter.

But I'm getting older and need to buy something!

I've never considered older age made buying a necessity but have been thinking recently that if a state pension plus saving interest took me into paying tax, it would seem like the rent was costing me 20% more. I suppose you already have to pay tax on all saving interest because you have other income? In your position you need to get your cash into tax free wrappers, just in case you don't buy but accessible in case you do. New tax year for ISAs tomorrow.

[Bear Hug]

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

 New tax year for ISAs tomorrow.

I've sold most of my positive stocks in non-isa wrapped accounts as cgt limit drops to 3k tomorrow I believe. 

 

[JoeDavola]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've never considered older age made buying a necessity but have been thinking recently that if a state pension plus saving interest took me into paying tax, it would seem like the rent was costing me 20% more. I suppose you already have to pay tax on all saving interest because you have other income? In your position you need to get your cash into tax free wrappers, just in case you don't buy but accessible in case you do. New tax year for ISAs tomorrow.

I have some wrapped in ISAs, some in stocks though not as much as I should do.

I don't think renting in the UK is going to be a great idea in the coming decades. I've been extremely lucky with this rental in terms of what it gives me and for how little money but that wont last forever.

[ccc]

5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I have some wrapped in ISAs, some in stocks though not as much as I should do.

I don't think renting in the UK is going to be a great idea in the coming decades. I've been extremely lucky with this rental in terms of what it gives me and for how little money but that wont last forever.

Same goes for buying when you hear the costs involved for basic maintenance. 

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, ccc said:

Same goes for buying when you hear the costs involved for basic maintenance. 

I know. I need to be very careful not to buy more house than I need given I'll be living alone for the forseeable.

I'd be much better taking my £300K to somewhere sunny and cheap and the walk into the sea aged 55 when its all spent but I'll never fucking learn will I...

[King Penda]

48 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I have some wrapped in ISAs, some in stocks though not as much as I should do.

I don't think renting in the UK is going to be a great idea in the coming decades. I've been extremely lucky with this rental in terms of what it gives me and for how little money but that wont last forever.

The population is going to rocket due to immigration imo

[AlfredTheLittle]

11 hours ago, spunko said:

That's interesting so can people from Republic of Ireland just move to N. Ireland willy nilly (and vice versa)?

 

 

I believe any Brits are allowed to move to (southern) Ireland willy nilly - so if you want a European passport, it's still available but you have to spend 5 years in Ireland first and then can live anywhere in Europe.

[Ash4781b]

11 hours ago, King Penda said:

The population is going to rocket due to immigration imo

Yeah there’s a political focus on Gross domestic product overall so it’s simply get people in who are alive and they spend it on services, goods etc. No real effort to tackle productivity issues. Presumably house building will be so low so much more  houses everywhere in multiple occupation ( HMO ) whether illegal or legal. There’s some mentions of maintenance upthread but I think council tax becoming an issue now and will get much much worse as paid out of post tax income as payee get hammered.

UK is transitioning to a lower productivity, high tax, high interest rate, low growth zone. Think we might be on track to see a lost decade. Everyone I speak to is pessimistic but maybe I’m speaking to the wrong people!

[Rare Bear]

1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

 

UK is transitioning to a lower productivity, high tax, high interest rate, low growth zone. Think we might be on track to see a lost decade. Everyone I speak to is pessimistic but maybe I’m speaking to the wrong people!

What do you mean transitioning? Surely you mean has transitioned?

[Ash4781b]

35 minutes ago, Rare Bear said:

What do you mean transitioning? Surely you mean has transitioned?

They have frozen the tax thresholds until 2028. So this is sadly I think the start!

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

They have frozen the tax thresholds until 2028. So this is sadly I think the start!

And weirdly, means tested bennies are not taxable.  

[Frank Hovis]

14 hours ago, King Penda said:

The population is going to rocket due to immigration imo

 

I don't think it can do that owing to what is now a genuine housing crisis.

There is nowhere for peopel to go.

Emergency Accommodation bills are growing exponentially for councils because whilst these were previously short term fixes whilst somewhere more permanent was sourced, the supply of somewhere more permanent has evaporated.

 

 

This is also highlighted by those being granted refugee status have also nowhere to live.

 

Clearing asylum backlog 'created another crisis' as refugees left homeless, charities say

There are 1.2 million people waiting for social housing across the UK, according to the charity Shelter. After the government managed to cut the asylum backlog by tens of thousands, groups have said those granted refugee status have nowhere to go.

https://news.sky.com/story/clearing-asylum-backlog-created-another-crisis-as-refugees-left-homeless-charities-say-13034925

 

Many of us have been saying "we're full" for years.

Well now we actually are.

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I don't think it can do that owing to what is now a genuine housing crisis.

There is nowhere for peopel to go.

Emergency Accommodation bills are growing exponentially for councils because whilst these were previously short term fixes whilst somewhere more permanent was sourced, the supply of somewhere more permanent has evaporated.

 

 

This is also highlighted by those being granted refugee status have also nowhere to live.

 

Clearing asylum backlog 'created another crisis' as refugees left homeless, charities say

There are 1.2 million people waiting for social housing across the UK, according to the charity Shelter. After the government managed to cut the asylum backlog by tens of thousands, groups have said those granted refugee status have nowhere to go.

https://news.sky.com/story/clearing-asylum-backlog-created-another-crisis-as-refugees-left-homeless-charities-say-13034925

 

Many of us have been saying "we're full" for years.

Well now we actually are.

You’re forgetting they will live 10 to a house next door but 1 to me has 9 Nigerians in it .ok there are 2 extra bedrooms in the loft I suspect it’s 1 . But it’s identical in every other way to mine

[One percent]

9 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I don't think it can do that owing to what is now a genuine housing crisis.

There is nowhere for peopel to go.

Emergency Accommodation bills are growing exponentially for councils because whilst these were previously short term fixes whilst somewhere more permanent was sourced, the supply of somewhere more permanent has evaporated.

 

 

This is also highlighted by those being granted refugee status have also nowhere to live.

 

Clearing asylum backlog 'created another crisis' as refugees left homeless, charities say

There are 1.2 million people waiting for social housing across the UK, according to the charity Shelter. After the government managed to cut the asylum backlog by tens of thousands, groups have said those granted refugee status have nowhere to go.

https://news.sky.com/story/clearing-asylum-backlog-created-another-crisis-as-refugees-left-homeless-charities-say-13034925

 

Many of us have been saying "we're full" for years.

Well now we actually are.

I honestly think that it’s deliberate, that they (whoever they are) are doing this deliberately to crash the whole of the western world.  It was on the radio earlier that a European country is facing exactly the same housing crisis.  I think it might have been Spain but I wasn’t paying much attention.  

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, King Penda said:

You’re forgetting they will live 10 to a house next door but 1 to me has 9 Nigerians in it .ok there are 2 extra bedrooms in the loft I suspect it’s 1 . But it’s identical in every other way to mine

 

You're right but you are talking about a different group.

That is illegals and temporary workers who want to save money to take or remit home.

The people, often native British, covered by EA and the asylum seekers granted refugee status are entitled to suitable accommodation funded by the LHA.

If there is no suitable accommodation then they will stay in hotel rooms, static caravans and B&Bs until some is found.

They have no reason to live ten to a room because they can just stay in EA indefinitely until the council finds them something suitable.

Which in most cases it won't because there isn't anything.

The outcome is that people will be staying in EA for years and the number in EA will just keep growing.

 

I'm not suggesting EA is a soft option, imagine bringing up your family in a hotel room, or growing up in one. And they are often moved frequently at short notice when the hotel wants its rooms back.

 

To a degree organisations like Shelter are responsible for this because they have cried wolf time and again with regard to housing, so that when we are now most definitely into a full blown housing crisis the general response is "Yeah yeah".

[Frank Hovis]

4 minutes ago, One percent said:

I honestly think that it’s deliberate, that they (whoever they are) are doing this deliberately to crash the whole of the western world.  It was on the radio earlier that a European country is facing exactly the same housing crisis.  I think it might have been Spain but I wasn’t paying much attention.  

 

My take is that the actual drive is globalisation with every country filled up with impoverished workers and this also multicultural so that the people will not unite and rise up against their globalist leaders.

Then you have a permanent self-serving super wealthy elite who live like kings and cannot be deposed: Biden, Sunak, Macron, Trudeau, Obama and their families.

To achieve that you have to destroy the indigenous culture but that isn't the final goal, just a step upon the way.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

You're right but you are talking about a different group.

That is illegals and temporary workers who want to save money to take or remit home.

The people, often native British, covered by EA and the asylum seekers granted refugee status are entitled to suitable accommodation funded by the LHA.

If there is no suitable accommodation then they will stay in hotel rooms, static caravans and B&Bs until some is found.

They have no reason to live ten to a room because they can just stay in EA indefinitely until the council finds them something suitable.

Which in most cases it won't because there isn't anything.

The outcome is that people will be staying in EA for years and the number in EA will just keep growing.

 

I'm not suggesting EA is a soft option, imagine bringing up your family in a hotel room, or growing up in one. And they are often moved frequently at short notice when the hotel wants its rooms back.

 

To a degree organisations like Shelter are responsible for this because they have cried wolf time and again with regard to housing, so that when we are now most definitely into a full blown housing crisis the general response is "Yeah yeah".

You raise nraise the migrants earning hurdle til theres more balance in people/housing.

You get tens and house asylum seekers on remote islands whilst their case is examined.

You only accept asylum seekers who can cover their accomdation cost whilst their case is examined.

Again, the next 10y of elections in US, UK and Europe are going to be around migrants i.e. not letting them in, kicking them out.

The post WW2 asylum laws are going to be scrapped cos loads of scamming Muzzers n Albanians.