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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)


spunko

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Mandalorian
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

10.5% outperformance of the mystical S&P 500 since @Mandalorian refused my bet.I knew i should of said a week instead of 3 years  :D .

There is chatter BT might cut the divi to speed up fiber rollout as VOD has given them the cover.The shares would likely be hit if they did,the flip side is if they dont (they have no reason to on the balance sheet) and they move to offering mid term guidance instead of short term they should move higher.I think they are worth £2.50,but how and when we ge there i dont know.Labour government is also a worry.

Give it time.  In the long term, the market is a weighing machine rather than a voting machine.  As someone once said.

 

I don't make predictions about shares but I do for politics.  As for a Labour government.  That is a worry. 

I do think this year's ISA allowance is the last one we'll get.  At least at the £20k level.  I expect scrapping it or reducing it to nothing over the next parliament.

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Long time lurking
20 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

One of the high points for me of the old site was being pointed to Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds after it was discussed there. The whole covid debacle reads like a modern chapter to the book.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/24518-h.htm

In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.

 

irony.thumb.jpg.6714d876ec5e5986556e738c0e97c41a.jpg

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DurhamBorn
6 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Give it time.  In the long term, the market is a weighing machine rather than a voting machine.  As someone once said.

 

I don't make predictions about shares but I do for politics.  As for a Labour government.  That is a worry. 

I do think this year's ISA allowance is the last one we'll get.  At least at the £20k level.  I expect scrapping it or reducing it to nothing over the next parliament.

Im only ribbing you ,your points are very valid for most people,but il never ever get out of bed and want to be most people,win or lose.This thread is about trying to be better.I think on the ISA allowance they will likely cap it like pensions.£200k or something.Taking everyones capital is all they have left.The noose is tightening,even on us.

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Mandalorian
2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Biggest lesson I learnt from covid- the supposedly top brains in the working world- banking/medicine/education all went mental and could not think of how current actions after future outcomes. 

Too many 'intelligent' people are first order thinkers.

The second leap in the logic chain is beyond them.  They're crap chess players.

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Mandalorian
46 minutes ago, RupertT said:

I see alphabet/Google announced it's first ever divi yesterday.  I assume Mandalorian will be dumping them now that they clearly have nothing better to do with the cash. 

I do nothing.  If it falls out of the S&P then the market does the trading for me.

I'm not against dividends per se.  I just understand what they are and realise they are an inconvenience - especially on shares held outside a tax shelter.

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HousePriceMania
18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im only ribbing you ,your points are very valid for most people,but il never ever get out of bed and want to be most people,win or lose.This thread is about trying to be better.I think on the ISA allowance they will likely cap it like pensions.£200k or something.Taking everyones capital is all they have left.The noose is tightening,even on us.

It's an interesting topic DB.

The thing I wonder is when the noose has tightened and everyone is hanging there dead.

What comes next.

That's the scary bit.

Edited by HousePriceMania
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wherebee
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

10.5% outperformance of the mystical S&P 500 since @Mandalorian refused my bet.I knew i should of said a week instead of 3 years  :D .

 

My portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time this year (i.e. YTD return is better than the S&P YTD return).  And the miners have not even begun to run yet.

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Axeman123
5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The thing I wonder is when the noose has tightened and everyone has hanging there dead.

What comes next.

That's the scary bit.

Venezuela, or on the milder end Argentina, are examples of just how far they will double down. In the former residents of formerly the richest country in south America ate zoo animals and pets to survive.

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HousePriceMania
31 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's an interesting topic DB.

The thing I wonder is when the noose has tightened and everyone is hanging there dead.

What comes next.

That's the scary bit.

Coincidentally just saw this...

 

23 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Venezuela, or on the milder end Argentina, are examples of just how far they will double down. In the former residents of formerly the richest country in south America ate zoo animals and pets to survive.

image.jpeg.afee1cc67b902c6e7e11ceffea9b60b1.jpeg

 

bring it on.

Edited by HousePriceMania
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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv come to the full conclusion that what is driving the collapse of the west is the inflation protecting of the polos,elites and the whole government set up.They lose nothing (until the end,then they lose everything) from their hubris but gain.UK car production fell 27% mostly due to lunatic net zero policy,yet that will not make any difference to those civil servants or their handlers.They will be glad of less traffic.The amount of theft is incredible.Or in macro terms saved labour transfers.Its not current labour/work taxation anymore,thats past its limit and cannot fund anywhere near the costs.They are taking savings through huge financial repression,and i think we will see them change to "an average inflation target" so they can keep real rates negative.

Still we will keep fighting,we are at war ,but at least we know their battle plans.

 

We likened it years ago to the court of King Louis of France.  It just becomes ever more clear.   Let them eat cake while we intrigue and dance in our fake but gay bubble.

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Long time lurking
16 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's not going to get any better any time soon regardless what happens in November.

It never was ,it was all predicted in 2015  the shit show of the last four years has been about nothing else ALL of it

 

https://resistir.info/livros/s_glazyev_the_last_world_war.pdf

If you read it you will see there were alternatives and you will know why you are seeing headlines today like the one i posted ,i read it in 2021 everything became much clearer from that point on 

The more astute will notice the subliminal message on the cover or is it just a coincidence ? ,this is why i will never discount it as being all one big plan,as in the enemy is in the shadows 

 

image.thumb.png.b5731718109e513a8a584758a5af703c.png

 

 

Edited by Long time lurking
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