Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Ash4781b]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-public-sector-productivity-goes-bad-worse-ons-data-shows-2024-05-03/

“May 3 (Reuters) - Public sector productivity, a major shortcoming in Britain's economy, worsened in late 2023 and remained a long way off its pre-pandemic levels, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

Productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, fell 1.0% between the third and fourth quarters of 2023 and was 2.3% lower than a year ago.

Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs - like salaries and government funding - that are needed to maintain those services.”

The article seems to suggest the poor productivity is dragging out into other sectors I guess focus being on the NHS.
 

I don’t know how fair the criticisms are as public services are probably being overwhelmed in part due to high immigration. Anyway they need / decided to keep the plates spinning with immigration fuelled GDP else debt becomes unmanageable. Unsure how Labour will look to fix this all? What a mess!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Why aren't they counting until Saturday? Is it so they can pay overtime rates? Should have sent them up to Sunderland and they would have had them counted by 3am.

[Pip321]

4 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

I`m just lost for words ,a bit like the guy in the video 

 

I am going to show my grandkids this fella trying to answer a question….its a great advert in why you shouldn’t do drugs.

Fuck me….Ozzy Osbourne is more coherent 🤢😂

[ashestoashes]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

Good to see that the people in charge know what they are doing ....

 

obfuscate, obfuscate, must not mention the fed

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

Productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, fell 1.0% between the third and fourth quarters of 2023 and was 2.3% lower than a year ago.

There are about 6 million direct public sector employees full time equivalent.

With that productivity decline we would need to employ about 140,000 more people this year just to get the same amount of work done.

If they were all minimum wage, assuming about 28k cost then that's about £4 billion. They won't all be on minimum so call it £6 billion.

With improving technology that helps productivity this must make the real decline due to employee competence worse.

The quality of the new workers is likely declining,so you probably need 200,000 to keep up output, especially when you take into account the 50 year old NHS workers that are retiring with a lifetime of skill + experience

Edited May 3 by reformed nice guy

[Yadda yadda yadda]

39 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I am going to show my grandkids this fella trying to answer a question….its a great advert in why you shouldn’t do drugs.

Fuck me….Ozzy Osbourne is more coherent 🤢😂

It's not real is it? I presumed it was a spoof.

They ought to have worked out how to answer that question if it is real.

[Virgil Caine]

39 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Why aren't they counting until Saturday? Is it so they can pay overtime rates? Should have sent them up to Sunderland and they would have had them counted by 3am.

It is a good question. In my area the District council elections are being counted today but apparently the PCC votes are not being counted until Sunday which presumably means overtime rates for staff. I can remember when all the local election results were counted and declared at least 4-5 hours after the polls closed. If one wants an example of declining public sector productivity look no further than the time taken to process election ballots.

[AWW]

5 hours ago, janch said:

Thanks for posting.  The best bit is at the end about the City of London which is outside the UK and outside the EU and is independent of the Queen (King now).

Unfortunately, the "best bit" is actually a fiction. Usually peddled by American conspiracy theorists who think the "corporation" of London is a private company rather than a boring local council. The city of London is part of the UK, and subject to UK law. It is just enforced by the city of London police alongside the met.

Edited May 3 by AWW
typos

[Red Debt Redemption]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Similar with me. I just want to Get Rich Pronto and running out of road. 

Stupid as I already have more than enough money. I tell myself I need it to leave to the kids but truth is I'm just tight and have an ingrained fear of spending.  That's what poverty childhood does to you. 

I think its human nature you work at building something up and then think but I could build it even bigger. I started off I'll do the basement ISA to pay the mortgage off now I'm like how can I pay it off while keeping most of the ISA. 

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Ooohh you young ones!

 

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was just about to post the same thing, I am bloody retiring this year, all our investment goal and stages are very different.

What do you think retired people should do with their shares?  Sell them all and buy bonds?  Convert it all into cash?  Buy an annuity?

I don't intend on doing any of those.  I'll leave it fully invested and sell tranches when I want the money.  (I.e.  Create my own dividends..... *lights blue touch paper and runs* )

[Pip321]

1 minute ago, AWW said:

Unfortunately, the "best bit" is actually a fiction. Usually peddled by American conspiracy theorists who think the "corporation" of London is a private company rather than a boring local council. The city of London is part of the UK, and subject to UK law. It is just enforced by the city of London police alongside the met.

I took it as whilst maybe technically untrue it echoed the reality finance in London isn’t part of my UK.

If the government put more pressure on Shell…it will be up and away. And the finance economy is the same, not that they will necessarily leave but rather they are bigger than government.

We touched on this a little this week relating to socialism (different argument but kind of a similar point)  in that it actually nothing is true socialism because the public sector (the state) isn’t owned by the people it’s owned and controlled by the elite anyway. So either they own/control it privately or via the state they owned.

Same in the City....the city may be subject to Uk laws but I seem to recall 2008 proved they don’t really apply. Just a nod every now and then to appease anyone who might be watching.  

We have a uni party….voting doesn’t change anything and unless we hang them from lampposts we control nothing anymore. Some things maybe that’s ok…..but the money printing banking sector is an interesting thing we leave to these guys. 😔

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Similar with me. I just want to Get Rich Pronto and running out of road. 

Stupid as I already have more than enough money. I tell myself I need it to leave to the kids but truth is I'm just tight and have an ingrained fear of spending.  That's what poverty childhood does to you. 

This is my problem.  With average returns, the pot grows faster than I could realistically spend it and I'm only 42.  Unless I have the midlife crisis of Harley/Porsche etc.  I resent buying a nicer house so I'll just stay in this one.

I just let it grow and add a bit every month.  But I am wondering.  What am I actually saving it for?  Why am I working?

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

 Unsure how Labour will look to fix this all? What a mess!

You being naive? They can't.  Or rather, won't.

[Funn3r]

3 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

This is my problem.  With average returns, the pot grows faster than I could realistically spend it and I'm only 42.  Unless I have the midlife crisis of Harley/Porsche etc.  I resent buying a nicer house so I'll just stay in this one.

I just let it grow and add a bit every month.  But I am wondering.  What am I actually saving it for?  Why am I working?

That's why you need kids. If you haven't got any, get some. No need for squelchy stuff if it doesn't suit. Do a Madonna and adopt some.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Mandalorian said:

Why am I working?

And that is the difference between us, I haven't had a PAYE job since 1997, mortgage free, and want to enjoy some money now on doing stuff while my body still can.

I take money out mt ISA to buy mars bars these days.

[Mandalorian]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

We touched on this a little this week relating to socialism (different argument but kind of a similar point)  in that it actually nothing is true socialism because the public sector (the state) isn’t owned by the people it’s owned and controlled by the elite anyway. So either they own/control it privately or via the state they owned.

This is why I correct people who want things 'publicly owned'.  What they mean is state owned.

I then ask them, given they hate ThE ToRiEs, why would they want the Tories running the 'publicly owned' enterprises.  Their brains just pop and then they change the subject.

 

'We own the banks' etc, 

Show me your share certificate or electronic record.  Show me your LLOY and RBS dividends.  What?  You can't?  Why's that then?

2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

That's why you need kids. If you haven't got any, get some. No need for squelchy stuff if it doesn't suit. Do a Madonna and adopt some.

Can imagine nothing worse.

[Mandalorian]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

And that is the difference between us, I haven't had a PAYE job since 1997, mortgage free, and want to enjoy some money now on doing stuff while my body still can.

I take money out mt ISA to buy mars bars these days.

I don't have a PAYE job or a mortgage either.  I do less than ever before, but giving it all up in my early 40s doesn't feel right for some reason.

[One percent]

2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-public-sector-productivity-goes-bad-worse-ons-data-shows-2024-05-03/

“May 3 (Reuters) - Public sector productivity, a major shortcoming in Britain's economy, worsened in late 2023 and remained a long way off its pre-pandemic levels, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

Productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, fell 1.0% between the third and fourth quarters of 2023 and was 2.3% lower than a year ago.

Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs - like salaries and government funding - that are needed to maintain those services.”

The article seems to suggest the poor productivity is dragging out into other sectors I guess focus being on the NHS.
 

I don’t know how fair the criticisms are as public services are probably being overwhelmed in part due to high immigration. Anyway they need / decided to keep the plates spinning with immigration fuelled GDP else debt becomes unmanageable. Unsure how Labour will look to fix this all? What a mess!

Im interested in the highlighted bit.  How would we begin to measure productivity in education?  What would we measure?  Outcomes, the more that pass the better? Hours taught? Bums on seats?  The answer to that question is incredibly important as it defines what is perceived to be the purpose of education.  

[Bobthebuilder]

Just now, Mandalorian said:

I don't have a PAYE job or a mortgage either.  I do less than ever before, but giving it all up in my early 40s doesn't feel right for some reason.

Heard that one a million times.

So much you can do if you have the time.

Wealth should be measured in time units, not currency ones.

[One percent]

14 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

This is my problem.  With average returns, the pot grows faster than I could realistically spend it and I'm only 42.  Unless I have the midlife crisis of Harley/Porsche etc.  I resent buying a nicer house so I'll just stay in this one.

I just let it grow and add a bit every month.  But I am wondering.  What am I actually saving it for?  Why am I working?

Have you ever considered buying the island?    

[AWW]

16 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I took it as whilst maybe technically untrue it echoed the reality finance in London isn’t part of my UK

Same way I feel about Bradford, Birmingham and Leicester. Oh and Liverpool 🙂

Edited May 3 by AWW

[AWW]

17 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

This is my problem.  With average returns, the pot grows faster than I could realistically spend it and I'm only 42.

</humblebrag>

Same age as you. Similar position. 55% marginal tax rate is why I still contribute to SIPP. And anyway, it's a pot, it doesn't die with you, you don't have to spend it all. Pass it onto the kids if you don't. 

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

This is my problem.  With average returns, the pot grows faster than I could realistically spend it and I'm only 42.  Unless I have the midlife crisis of Harley/Porsche etc.  I resent buying a nicer house so I'll just stay in this one.

I just let it grow and add a bit every month.  But I am wondering.  What am I actually saving it for?  Why am I working?

For me it was always about freedom.I go insane when im trapped.I always hated working.I liked some of the people i worked with,but work itself is horrific.I had cancer at 29 though told i would likely die so after beating that i changed,i had to be free.Now i am,as free as i can be.Money is just freedom.I love the fact im on the outside looking in.Going about my business free.The other side is making sure the kids have enough to pay a house off each.

 

[Mandalorian]

10 minutes ago, One percent said:

Have you ever considered buying the island?    

All of it?  Buy the UK?  I'd be a fantastic dictator.  Sort the place out in an afternoon.

[Red Debt Redemption]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

For me it was always about freedom.I go insane when im trapped.I always hated working.I liked some of the people i worked with,but work itself is horrific.I had cancer at 29 though told i would likely die so after beating that i changed,i had to be free.Now i am,as free as i can be.Money is just freedom.I love the fact im on the outside looking in.Going about my business free.The other side is making sure the kids have enough to pay a house off each.