Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Didn't you hear?  According to a since departed frog poster, we all live like kings now

 

Several reasons really.

1.  You'd always be a foreigner.

2.  Same shit.  Different place.

come to australia.  you'll be called a fucking pom for at least 15 years, but can sit in the sunshine 9 months of the year for free.

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, Bien Pensant said:

Money is evidence of debt, simple as that.

If you think about how it comes into being - someone gives it to someone else when they have nothing the other party actually wants at the time - then that's all it is.

 

Of course on an individuals perspective. What do the multi trillions in bank reserves or governments debt mean. I know how it got there, deferred consumption by individuals over their lifetimes. It then becomes something else, a means of power and control. Its too trite to say it is simply evidence of debt. 

For the love of money is the root of all evil

https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/1-Timothy-6-10/

[Sasquatch]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

come to australia.  you'll be called a fucking pom for at least 15 years, but can sit in the sunshine 9 months of the year for free.

Couldn't cope with the heat. I was feeling hot yesterday when the thermometer breached 20 degrees!

[wherebee]

10 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Couldn't cope with the heat. I was feeling hot yesterday when the thermometer breached 20 degrees!

tasmania has weather the same as the UK, with the added advantage everything is stuck in the 1970s.

[Sasquatch]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

tasmania has weather the same as the UK, with the added advantage everything is stuck in the 1970s.

The 1970's bit appeals. Bit like the village we live in currently. We still see a coal lorry making regular deliveries around here.

[ThoughtCriminal]

The phrase that springs to mind on emigrating is "whether you think you can or you can't then you're right".

If you're the kind of person who needs big networks of friends and family to feel happy then you're highly unlikely to be happy abroad as they take years to develop and much more difficult to do when you're older. I have plenty of good friends and family but I can take it or leave it, just as happy alone but never lonely.

The difference now is that people aren't going to be emigrating because of the weather, they're going to be emigrating because Mohammad just took control of their local council for the "Green Party" and mandated that each household must pay a levy for Gaza and new Shari'a patrols and rubbish collections are abolished and replaced with a big fire in your street.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

If you're the kind of person who needs big networks of friends and family to feel happy then you're highly unlikely to be happy abroad as they take years to develop and much more difficult to do when you're older. I have plenty of good friends and family but I can take it or leave it, just as happy alone but never lonely.

True.  Especially any non-working partner.  That's quite often the killer, especially for the corporate bod sent on an overseas tour to complete his/her entry criteria to the C suite.

I was brought up expat so am OK making do.  Just as well as there's a fair few wierdos on the expat circuit to whittle the acceptable group down even more.  Not a surprise really.  Locals take time, although the wierdos amongst them are more forthcoming!

That said, my partner was total home counties but thrived in a variety of quite demanding situations.  Made it a real team effort and gave me a new level of respect for her. 

I actually stopped the expat life as I tired of doing it alone and not being able to share it.  Got back to the UK, met her, and off we went!

Me parents had some hard times though including coups, house arrests, illness, violence, expulsions, etc that must have left scars.  Probably a net positive but certainly not for free.

Edited May 7 by Harley

[Lightscribe]

13 hours ago, WarrenGennyBox said:

Moving to another country is mostly for dreamers. It never happens. But it's nice to chat about it, and it produces a warm, fuzzy feeling over a beer.

When I travelled the world, I stayed and worked in both Oz and NZ for over a year each. I have family in Oz and friends who have emigrated to NZ after seeing the writing on the wall some years back (beauty of growing up in a shit area, ears closer to the ground and all that).

I could have quite easily have lived and got residency in both. The only reason I came back was because of family here.

But since 2020 Aus became a Petri dish for the WEF. Militant lockdowns, mandatory vaccines for work, and now hurtling towards cashless digital currency and IDs. This was so much so, one of my friends returned to the UK after 20 years. 

Basically you can’t escape it (At least in western countries)

I spent some months traveling around Thailand and Asia, my brother has spent the last couple of years there quite happily. If I didn’t have family here I would have no quarms about upping sticks tomorrow.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Couldn't cope with the heat. I was feeling hot yesterday when the thermometer breached 20 degrees!

40c plus in Ballarat.  They can keep their gold!

[AWW]

15 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I wouldn't vote for reform. However, they are the only party I saw do any campaigning for the London mayoral election. They must have some sort of structure and volunteers to achieve that. The policies were all a list of expenses and not a coherent plan. I took a photo of the leaflet they handed me so that I could point out on another thread how each policy carried a cost without a plan to pay for it.

We had a couple of people from Reform knock at the door, which is more than any other party did. Unfortunately, they were absolute cunts who banged on about "the cycling lobby", "lycra louts" and school streets.  I pointed out that, despite having a nice car on the drive, I cycle to work and drop the kids off at school on a cargo bike.  They apparently couldn't understand why you'd have a nice car but use a bike. They're basically just a pro-private car pressure group, at least in London.  Given that I was ready and willing to listen to them, hoping to like what they said enough to vote for them, and came away deciding not to vote at all, I can only imagine what the average person things of them.

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Of course on an individuals perspective. What do the multi trillions in bank reserves or governments debt mean. I know how it got there, deferred consumption by individuals over their lifetimes. It then becomes something else, a means of power and control. Its too trite to say it is simply evidence of debt. 

For the love of money is the root of all evil

https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/1-Timothy-6-10/

From that perspective ,it always have been the case ,slavery never ended they just removed the chains and replaced it with debt ,the problem we have now is to many governments got high on their own supply ,those willing to take on the counter party risk are demanding more for doing so 

Default of Zimbabwe beckons 

[Axeman123]

17 minutes ago, AWW said:

They're basically just a pro-private car pressure group, at least in London.

The biggest swing voter group in London, considering how anti-private car Khan and the ULEZ is.

[Chewing Grass]

Anecdotal: Grosvenor Park in Chester had a Cafe, it at least it did in March, it has now shut due to the Council demanding rent of £800 per week. This requires huge footfall to service when added to the other overheads so the business closed. There is now no Cafe.

[sleepwello'nights]

8 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Anecdotal: Grosvenor Park in Chester had a Cafe, it at least it did in March, it has now shut due to the Council demanding rent of £800 per week. This requires huge footfall to service when added to the other overheads so the business closed. There is now no Cafe.

No cafe and the local council has lost a bit of revenue. Absolute genius local authority executives. Worth every penny of their future pension, not!

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Anecdotal: Grosvenor Park in Chester had a Cafe, it at least it did in March, it has now shut due to the Council demanding rent of £800 per week. This requires huge footfall to service when added to the other overheads so the business closed. There is now no Cafe.

The pension costs are so big now at councils they are cutting services to pay for them and trying to fleece anyone they can.We would have a booming economy if the state and councils where half the size minimum.Even if the business could pay that £800 its just inflation on workers to pay for the pensions.

[AWW]

26 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The biggest swing voter group in London, considering how anti-private car Khan and the ULEZ is.

The results say otherwise. The Tory candidate's campaign leaned heavily on scrapping ULEZ and she managed to lose vote share.

[M S E Refugee]

Got rid of SEDY and HFEL this morning so zero exposure to China,Hong Kong and Taiwan.

I've had a punt on some Country specific ETF's such as Mexico Brasil,Vietnam, Turkey,South Africa,Thailand,Indonesia and Malaysia.

Edited May 7 by M S E Refugee

[goldbug9999]

21 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

I sometimes think about moving to a better area but I wonder if I'd be overpaying.  Last thing I want is to hand over my hard earned capital and then be able to get the same place cheaper 2 years later.  I'd rather sit tight for 2 years.

Is this the consensus now?  I.e.  There isn't going to be a HPC and it's just going to stagnate indefinitely?

The rational side of me says just buy somewhere.  The emotional side of me (second most expensive thing I will ever buy*) says wait.

It also depends if you are getting a mortgage - above about age 45 every year you wait is one less year you have on the repayment term. I think that large drops in prices can only occur if we have a severe cyclical recession but TPTB seem to be doing everything they can to keep the plates spinning.  

Edited May 7 by goldbug9999

[Axeman123]

42 minutes ago, AWW said:

The results say otherwise. The Tory candidate's campaign leaned heavily on scrapping ULEZ and she managed to lose vote share.

I will grant you that it wasn't the silver bullet many had expected.

National party stuff plays a part too though, so it is hard to draw solid conclussions.

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The pension costs are so big now at councils they are cutting services to pay for them and trying to fleece anyone they can.We would have a booming economy if the state and councils where half the size minimum.Even if the business could pay that £800 its just inflation on workers to pay for the pensions.

It gets worse ... this is the spending breakdown from my local council:

We will spend this funding on the following services:

• 47% on supporting vulnerable adults
• 39% on supporting vulnerable children and families
• 10% on waste and recycling and some grounds maintenance
• 2% on highways and transport
• 2% on other services and support services

So that literally 85 fucking percent of the money spent on about 0.1% of the population. I think it works out at about 200k per "vulnerable" person. OK I accept that some people need a little help for various reason but nearly quarter of a million per head !!. Apparently this is because all this vulnerable care stuff is outsourced to outrageously expensive third parties to insulate the council against any liability. Its all completely fucked.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Got rid of SEDY and HFEL this morning so zero exposure to China,Hong Kong and Taiwan.

I've had a punt on some Country specific ETF's such as Mexico Brasil,Vietnam, Turkey,South Africa,Thailand,Indonesia and Malaysia.

Can you share some details of the ETFs you've gone for, what kind of tasty yields they have and if you can hold in HL.

I hold SEDY AND HFEL still but am increasingly nervous about exposure to China and Taiwan.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

We had a couple of people from Reform knock at the door, which is more than any other party did. Unfortunately, they were absolute cunts who banged on about "the cycling lobby", "lycra louts" and school streets.  I pointed out that, despite having a nice car on the drive, I cycle to work and drop the kids off at school on a cargo bike.  They apparently couldn't understand why you'd have a nice car but use a bike. They're basically just a pro-private car pressure group, at least in London.  Given that I was ready and willing to listen to them, hoping to like what they said enough to vote for them, and came away deciding not to vote at all, I can only imagine what the average person things of them.

I might have mentioned before but quite a few years ago now I was asked if I would be interested in joining/standing for the Greens. After Id had a rant about the co chair bollocks (wasnt in here) and some of the policies that would bring us back to the dark ages I said no. I couldnt support some of the policies which had the people asking scratching their heads as I was a card carrying recycling person, worked with that industry and had solar, carbon offsetting, all that jazz.
The problem with the small parties is that they are fringe, they attract fucking nutters, whilst they might be ok in a public arena, they go off on one on 1-1s hence the parties going round asking for businesspeople who speak regularly without fucking up to join. The problem is, anyone who fits the second description doesnt want to be associated with the first.

Ive a uni mate who is proper Scots Nat. From Inverness direction, has always been scots nat. I do ask what the fuck is going on over there in the last few years but he wont say anything. I only really twigged recently as Id forgotten that the SNP had been in coalition with the Greens. So there you have it, probably a lot of the bonkers thinking is coming direct from the Greens.

People in the UK dont really need to fear a hung parliament or coalition government or the likes of reform or anyone else but be prepared to get really scared if the likes of the greens/reform get enough of a protest vote to hold the balance of power. Who knows what shit they will ask for in return and it probably wont be stuff you think it will.
Bit like when the DUP had Teresa May over the barrel, it put progress here back years.

[M S E Refugee]

24 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Can you share some details of the ETFs you've gone for, what kind of tasty yields they have and if you can hold in HL.

I hold SEDY AND HFEL still but am increasingly nervous about exposure to China and Taiwan.

ITKY,SRSA,IBZL,XMID,XCX3,XMEX,XCX4 and an Investment Trust (VOF).

Not sure about what they yield as you're only getting your own money back anyway.

It's becoming very tricky to navigate our way around Western governments batshit sanctions or potential sanctions.

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

ITKY,SRSA,IBZL,XMID,XCX3,XMEX,XCX4 and an Investment Trust (VOF).

Not sure about what they yield as you're only getting your own money back anyway.

It's becoming very tricky to navigate our way around Western governments batshit sanctions or potential sanctions.

Thanks, I'll have a look at those.

I'm sure that when I first started investing, PEPs I think it was back then, I vaguely recall you were severely limited in where you could invest, might have been just the UK / Europe or something like that. Feels like we're slowly heading back that way.

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

ITKY,SRSA,IBZL,XMID,XCX3,XMEX,XCX4 and an Investment Trust (VOF).

 

ITKY is one of my real winners and I'm up a lot. Considering some more now it's the new ISA year.

How do people feel about Turkey? Or Türkiye as it has now been rebranded.

I always thought it was a shithole until I went there and it's actually very nice. The currency seems to have stabilised after a long period of continuously losing value.

Very interesting op-ed about where the country is going in the near future (basically stay in NATO and West - or not.)

https://www.rt.com/news/597055-turkish-patriots-influence-nato-us/

or
https://swentr.site/news/597055-turkish-patriots-influence-nato-us/