Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

10 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Right enough tangents, let's get back on topic.

Who's your pick for Eurovision winner, @DurhamBorn @Castlevania?

Bucks Fizz!

 

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Right enough tangents, let's get back on topic.

Who's your pick for Eurovision winner, @DurhamBorn @Castlevania?

Looks like Croatia or Switzerland ,Ukraine a slight chance,the one that will go viral is Ireland prepare for twitter to explode with #crownthewitch ,its the most open year for decades,but all the lefties having a go at Israel for their lovely Palestine terrorists.Il vote for Israel because she is gorgeous and the hate towards her is shocking from the woke mob.

[CVG]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks like Croatia or Switzerland ,Ukraine a slight chance,the one that will go viral is Ireland prepare for twitter to explode with #crownthewitch ,its the most open year for decades,but all the lefties having a go at Israel for their lovely Palestine terrorists.Il vote for Israel because she is gorgeous and the hate towards her is shocking from the woke mob.

I was going to dump a load of money on Croatia assuming I could get 6 to 1 each way. Then I saw it was even money favourites. I'm not sure this is open at all this year.

[afly]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks like Croatia or Switzerland ,Ukraine a slight chance,the one that will go viral is Ireland prepare for twitter to explode with #crownthewitch ,its the most open year for decades,but all the lefties having a go at Israel for their lovely Palestine terrorists.Il vote for Israel because she is gorgeous and the hate towards her is shocking from the woke mob.

Loved seeing Australia get knocked out. When even eurovision ain't buying your woke bollox you may have taken things a bit far 

[wherebee]

21 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The property bulls are coming out now….even on here people thinking no point fighting it. It’s once we are all absolutely certain property can’t fail….that’s when it does. Seen it plenty of times 😉

So where are we now? 

A

My view now is that inflation is going to ride hard, maybe even a little bit of hyperinflation in some western countries.  That 500GBP house will be worth 650k, so will have gone 'up'.

But the pound will have lost value, so it's really crashed but the normo's wont see it.

In 1922 one loaf of bread was 3 marks.  In 1923, 700-2000 marks.  

If you'd borrowed on fixed rate terms in 1920, you could have paid off the loan on a house with a suitcase full of bread in 1923.  Many businessmen did this with industrial properties and basically made their fortunes; a few people also bought farms and did the same.

I can see the average Uk salary being 100-150k and houses back to 3-5 times.  But the sheep will still think 'ooh my house is worth more'.

hence me thinking buying a place on a long term fix would be rational.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Blimey she praised the current government!

All the politicians will be scared off radical changes in this area because of what happened at least the perception of Truss/Kwateng event and blame assigned.  Essentially one scenario I have been thing about is gilt yields spiking more on Labour majority.  However, it’s baked in to the current expectations. The Truss thing just imo exposed the reality of the UK economic position - not great. Also ‘anger’ in media - why don’t the cut the rates! We’ll see today what they jump on when I expect Bailey will talk of rate cuts?

I interpreted the video as no change to policy and they don’t understand the issue. So unlikely to be a big housebuilding programme ( they will build less ) and more multi living hmo’s as net migration in range of 0.5mn - 1mn per year fuels household formation. They may even be pursing a model where food imports can rise and rise so just close the farms and build over them? 

 

Sharing will be the story of the cycle,the scale of theft from the productive is so big the only way to have some disposable income will be to lower costs.Frozen allowances will ensure assets go to government and dont stay in families over a couple of generations.Labour will go after capital to fund the none producing.

[goldbug9999]

16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

For decades, the rapid inflow of migrants helped countries including Canada, Australia and the UK stave off the demographic drag from aging populations and falling birth rates. That’s now breaking down as a surge of arrivals since borders reopened after the pandemic runs headlong into a chronic shortage of homes to accommodate them.

No it has not "helped" at all. The way to tackle demographic changes is to increase productivity, have a better trained workforce, less unemployment etc, not to artificially increase the working population since the latter leads to even worse demographics down the line - effectively a form of demographic debt.

[feed]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sharing will be the story of the cycle

Three in 10 households made up of people living alone, latest estimates suggest | Evening Standard

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/ons-office-for-national-statistics-b1156329.html#:~:text=There were 8.4 million people living alone in,the case of a group of unrelated people.

There were 8.4 million people living alone in the UK in 2023, the ONS said, equating to 30% of all households and 13% of all people living in households.

Housing, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingenglandandwales/census2021#Accommodation Type

In 2021, 3.3 million people aged 65 years and over were living alone in England and Wales, 30.1 % of the older population. The proportion of older women living alone was lower in 2021 (36.3%) than in 2011 (39.2%). For men, the proportion increased slightly in 2021 (22.7%) compared with 2011 (21.8%).
 

 

[No One]

In other news :

 

Brazil Chicken Supplier BRF Sees Profit Triple as Costs Fall

1 / 2

Brazil Chicken Supplier BRF Sees Profit Triple as Costs Fall

 

Clarice Couto

Wed, May 8, 2024, 2:45 PM GMT+12 min read

In This Article:

• BRFS+10.71%

(Bloomberg) -- BRF SA, one of the world’s largest chicken suppliers, surged to the highest since 2022 as lower costs and higher prices led to better-than-expected quarterly profits.

Most Read from Bloomberg

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The profit beat underscores BRF’s recovery after two straight years of losses amid surging costs and a supply glut. Chicken producers globally are benefiting from a decline in prices for the grains used to feed their birds at the same time as consumer demand is rebounding.

BRF, which produces everything from hams and sausages to frozen pizza, has also embarked on a plan to slash costs and boost efficiency across its operations.

The stock jumped as much as 11% in São Paulo, to the highest level since April 2022. It was the biggest gainer in Brazil’s benchmark stock index.

Profits before items such as interest and taxes in the three-month period ended in March more than tripled from a year earlier to 2.1 billion Brazilian reais ($414 million), the company said in a filing Tuesday. That exceeded the 1.7 billion-real average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The result was a seasonal record, and reflect a change in the company fundamentals, Chief Executive Officer Miguel Gularte said in an interview. The company said it has seen a price recovery in almost all its regions.

BRF is controlled by meat giant Marfrig Global Foods SA, and counts Saudi Arabia’s state-owned fund Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co. among its shareholders. Marfrig shares jumped as much as 7.9%.

BRF’s net debt fell to less than 1.5 times Ebitda to the lowest level in eight years. With the reduced debt burden, the company now has the capacity to evaluate growth opportunities, CFO Fabio Mariano said in the same interview.

Fitch Ratings earlier this month upgraded its credit ratings on BRF, citing the outlook for improved chicken demand.


Thank you once again DB

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, CVG said:

I was going to dump a load of money on Croatia assuming I could get 6 to 1 each way. Then I saw it was even money favourites. I'm not sure this is open at all this year.

It was open until rehearsals with around 6 in with a chance,iv got fully green book,i got Swiss at 9s,Croatia t 6s,Ireland at 60s,.Lots of Balkan countries have left Eurovision and the EBU would love them back so i suspect they would love a Croatian win.The Swiss have a good chance still though.Ireland will go big as well.The UKs entry is horrific,its just sodomites in a shower.

[No One]

brfsa 10 phoiants

[SpectrumFX]

56 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The property bulls are coming out now….even on here people thinking no point fighting it. I

It's a new paradigm. There's no way we'll see a crash now...

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

An old friend has been following ‘another sites’ advice and has been moving property from their individual name in company name for VAT, Sec 24 and IHT reasons. HMRC have contacted him….looking into it under the Tax Avoidance remit.

P118? Your friend is fucked if so AIUI.

Analysis of why for anyone interested:

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/02/14/property118_caught/

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

If you'd borrowed on fixed rate terms in 1920, you could have paid off the loan on a house with a suitcase full of bread in 1923.  

Good luck with that one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

You should have realised by now, the masses never win.

 

Edited May 9 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

59 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

It's a new paradigm. There's no way we'll see a crash now...

Definitely return to normal

Seen a couple of houses that have been for sale for 12 months go SSTC recently.  1 of them now back on the market.

Everyone's been promised 0% IRs again so want to get their ducks in a row ready to cash in.  They must think prices will shoot up when IRs fall ( my boomer father in law actually said this ), not realising the prices haven't fallen back yet so best case will just fall less.

The UK's obsession with property will bring the country down at some point.

Edited May 9 by HousePriceMania

[Pip321]

41 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

P118? Your friend is fucked if so AIUI.

Analysis of why for anyone interested:

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/02/14/property118_caught/

I think for discretion and legal reasons it would be wrong for me to either deny nor confirm which website it was…..but yeah, that’s the one 😂😂

[Long time lurking]

 

[wherebee]

41 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Definitely return to normal

Seen a couple of houses that have been for sale for 12 months go SSTC recently.  1 of them now back on the market.

Everyone's been promised 0% IRs again so want to get their ducks in a row ready to cash in.  They must think prices will shoot up when IRs fall ( my boomer father in law actually said this ), not realising the prices haven't fallen back yet so best case will just fall less.

The UK's obsession with property will bring the country down at some point.

How do you class my prediction of a crash in real terms but an increase in fiat values?

1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

It's a new paradigm. There's no way we'll see a crash now...

How do you class my prediction of a crash in real terms but an increase in fiat values?

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

P118? Your friend is fucked if so AIUI.

Analysis of why for anyone interested:

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/02/14/property118_caught/

28 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I think for discretion and legal reasons it would be wrong for me to either deny nor confirm which website it was…..but yeah, that’s the one 😂😂

I have a constant contact with a chartered accountant, during our chats they have mentioned the subject of landlords and their tax arrangements. They maintain that over the last year or so the revenue has been aggressively pursuing landlords for possible tax discrepancies, to the shock and awe of landlords these enquiries can and do go back as far as 30 years and beyond.

As mentioned here the Government will take all it can now and going forward, this is just the start.

[crashmonitor]

48 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Definitely return to normal

Seen a couple of houses that have been for sale for 12 months go SSTC recently.  1 of them now back on the market.

Everyone's been promised 0% IRs again so want to get their ducks in a row ready to cash in.  They must think prices will shoot up when IRs fall ( my boomer father in law actually said this ), not realising the prices haven't fallen back yet so best case will just fall less.

The UK's obsession with property will bring the country down at some point.

Good post. Everything is up just now the Stock Market, the Money Markets paying out 5% plus on 1 year fixed and houses are falling. For the first time in ages I actually feel I am getting wealthier. At the end of the day the only people who gain from high house prices are last time buy geriatrics who want to cash in, for everybody else the gap to the next house gets more expensive and it is an absolute disaster for priced out young people. 

 

But heck Swati will be doing her best today to promote the Weimar.Repubic  house price boom route.

[SpectrumFX]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

How do you class my prediction of a crash in real terms but an increase in fiat values?

I'm sure that's possible. A crash in real terms is a crash, and nominal values could go up while a real terms crash was happening.

Whether that will happen I don't have an opinion. I'm not personally monitoring what's happening with the housing market these days. I'll get back on it in about 10-15 years when my kids need to start thinking about such things.

[goldbug9999]

1 minute ago, SpectrumFX said:

I'm sure that's possible. A crash in real terms is a crash, and nominal values could go up while a real terms crash was happening.

Whether that will happen I don't have an opinion. I'm not personally monitoring what's happening with the housing market these days. I'll get back on it in about 10-15 years when my kids need to start thinking about such things.

Its a not crash in real terms unless wages rise with inflation (which they very well might not).

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, No One said:

In other news :

 

Brazil Chicken Supplier BRF Sees Profit Triple as Costs Fall

1 / 2

Brazil Chicken Supplier BRF Sees Profit Triple as Costs Fall

 

Clarice Couto

Wed, May 8, 2024, 2:45 PM GMT+12 min read

 

In This Article:

• BRFS+10.71%

(Bloomberg) -- BRF SA, one of the world’s largest chicken suppliers, surged to the highest since 2022 as lower costs and higher prices led to better-than-expected quarterly profits.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track

• Stormy Daniels Will Return to Court in Test of Trump’s Demeanor

• Trump Judge Indefinitely Postpones Documents Case Trial

• Microsoft’s Xbox Is Planning More Cuts After Studio Closings

The profit beat underscores BRF’s recovery after two straight years of losses amid surging costs and a supply glut. Chicken producers globally are benefiting from a decline in prices for the grains used to feed their birds at the same time as consumer demand is rebounding.

BRF, which produces everything from hams and sausages to frozen pizza, has also embarked on a plan to slash costs and boost efficiency across its operations.

The stock jumped as much as 11% in São Paulo, to the highest level since April 2022. It was the biggest gainer in Brazil’s benchmark stock index.

Profits before items such as interest and taxes in the three-month period ended in March more than tripled from a year earlier to 2.1 billion Brazilian reais ($414 million), the company said in a filing Tuesday. That exceeded the 1.7 billion-real average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The result was a seasonal record, and reflect a change in the company fundamentals, Chief Executive Officer Miguel Gularte said in an interview. The company said it has seen a price recovery in almost all its regions.

BRF is controlled by meat giant Marfrig Global Foods SA, and counts Saudi Arabia’s state-owned fund Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co. among its shareholders. Marfrig shares jumped as much as 7.9%.

BRF’s net debt fell to less than 1.5 times Ebitda to the lowest level in eight years. With the reduced debt burden, the company now has the capacity to evaluate growth opportunities, CFO Fabio Mariano said in the same interview.

Fitch Ratings earlier this month upgraded its credit ratings on BRF, citing the outlook for improved chicken demand.


Thank you once again DB

See the lag in work,Inputs go up,they pass on,then inputs fall a bit prices still up.Been a great performer for us.Im thinking of selling and putting into a Hong Kong tracker.Im also tracking a company called Albemarle to start buying,but id like it a little lower yet.

[Long time lurking]

18 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Good post. Everything is up just now the Stock Market, the Money Markets paying out 5% plus on 1 year fixed and houses are falling. For the first time in ages I actually feel I am getting wealthier. At the end of the day the only people who gain from high house prices are last time buy geriatrics who want to cash in, for everybody else the gap to the next house gets more expensive and it is an absolute disaster for priced out young people. 

 

But heck Swati will be doing her best today to promote the Weimar.Repubic  house price boom route.

They will sacrifice the £ ,it`s all that`s left 

[Long time lurking]

It`s been obvious for a long time there was something else behind all this other than climate the question is what ,as none of it made any sense economically 

 

Edited May 9 by Long time lurking