Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Best we can hope for is a hung parliament.

Also 650 of them, hung 

You have forgotten about the Lords.

[goldbug9999]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The most useful thing for me has been understanding the incentives of those people, so for example a macro commentator on YT like George Gammon needs to constantly put out attention getting videos with both an implied urgency and "shocking new information". He can't wait six months otherwise his video will seem old hat after all the competitors have done the topic to death. Even a bank analyst like Zoltan Pozsar has a similar incentive, to literally publish or perish. That doesn't mean there aren't gems in both mens' output, but filtering is required.

The thing that puzzles me with the various pundits is - if their insights are the alpha they want us to believe it is, why are they not just spending a few minutes here and there tinkering with their investments and sipping mojitos on a beach in the bahamas ? - why are the grinding for attention on social media ?.

[Calcutta]

55 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Macro seems to be directionally accurate but terrible for timing. Its also worth noting that historically it has been the uninversion that actually rings a bell, which still hasn't happened. Considering how utterly unprecendented the money-printing has been since 2008 I wouldn't expect anything less than the longest ever lag from inversion to recession anyway.

This. If I had solid gold bollocks I'd sit in equities until the uninversion, reinversion, revisersion....number go up bit, then liquidate.

When that happens tho is the fucker. Last time I looked at the chart it looked like May/June but that's just me looking at it I didn't draw any lines or anything technical.

[HousePriceMania]

Stock markets at all time high regardless of massive rate rises....now the MSM push the narrative that the investors want rate cuts

With persistent inflation then rate cuts would indicate a massive economic collapse so share prices would plummet.

This stock "boom" makes zero sense to me, everything seems to be on it's head.

As someone up thread said, maybe the $1tn print ever 100 days has something to do with it.

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Calcutta said:

This. If I had solid gold bollocks I'd sit in equities until the uninversion, reinversion, revisersion....number go up bit, then liquidate.

When that happens tho is the fucker. Last time I looked at the chart it looked like May/June but that's just me looking at it I didn't draw any lines or anything technical.

My SIPP fund get's 4% interest, maybe liquidating is not such a bad idea.

[Axeman123]

29 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

The thing that puzzles me with the various pundits is - if their insights are the alpha they want us to believe it is, why are they not just spending a few minutes here and there tinkering with their investments and sipping mojitos on a beach in the bahamas ? - why are the grinding for attention on social media ?.

Gammon does live in Medellin, where his day-to-day grind (last I heard) was developing and flipping up-scale apartments. I can totally see the logic in having the exact opposite in an uncorrelated capital unintensive source of cash flow like YT etc to compliment that.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Harley said:

@sancho panza have you been watching the agchem companies (MOS, YARA, etc) the last few days?

I've been watching for a few months tbh and have been buying back..We sold up most of our potash circa feb/march 22 by pure luck and got some good prices.we missed the top in a few but usch is life

iirc we traded mainly from the coof bottom -Nutrien $50 to$95,Yara $15 to $27,Mosaic circa $10(a few ladders) to $36,SQM $25 to $50,Intrepid $7 to $30,Israeli chem $4 to $9,K&S E6 to E24,

As ive said before I reckon our covid buys took us to 3% potash-too small-as we were busy with oilies & goldies.

thats the context we've bought back

1.5% Yara at $15.50, 0.7% K&S at E13, Nutrien 0.7% at $52,Compass Minerals 1% at $14(next ladder $10),Incitec pivot(Aussie potash 1.5% at  circa AUD$ 2.8/USD $1.8

Sorry if this seems windy harley but I feel duty bound to declare our interests as I have been buying.

I like the set up here,the number look good and some are really beat up eg compass(big salt business too but 40% fertilizer).Thereas a few near coof lows eg yara

I'd like to get us to 10% by portiflio value.

@ThoughtCriminal has been buying as well I belive.

Edited May 8 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

This.

My great grandfather didn't lose his wealth in the stock market.  He lost it in the banks collapses that followed on from the stock market collapses.  

So being all in cash - what does that mean?  Numbers in a bank system which might not exist after a crash?

Absolutely,what gets me with going 100% or 90% cash is that you're actually moving your moeny from a bet on a stock to a bett on the solvency of a bank.

I read bank balance sheets while the wife watches Netflix at night.

That's not a bet I'd make.Nationwide being a prime example of a crash waiting for a car.It's IO mortgage book is fubar.91% of a £40bn book in a wider £160bn loan book.

safest place for cash is short dated govt bonds if you're that way inclined.

2 hours ago, montecristo said:

But Ms Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said there was no “justification” to increase the threshold despite warnings it may have to rise to 70 by 2040 to balance the public finances.

I don't know whetehr to laugh or cry.

we're £2.6tn in the hole in 2024 comapred to £400bn in in 2000.the tax take and other income brings in £1.1tn.a lot of if funded by the growing national debt.

balance the public finances my @ rse

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

Yes pretty much all the macro commentators have been wrong because that have some aversion to taking account of the $trillion every 100 days printing and insist on comparing yield charts with the 1930's or whatever.

Gammon does some very educational stuff about long term strutural weaknesses.

alden is 90% long equities as \i have a sub.well woth it imho.alden sub is $200 p.a.

.gammons is $70 per month so $840 but you get closer access I beleive

[Mandalorian]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely,what gets me with going 100% or 90% cash is that you're actually moving your moeny from a bet on a stock to a bett on the solvency of a bank.

 

Don't forget, unless you have a pesonal CREST account or certificates, your entire shareholding (minus £85k) is a bet on the honesty of your broker and their record keeping.  The joys of nominee accounts.

[goldbug9999]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

alden is 90% long equities as \i have a sub.well woth it imho.alden sub is $200 p.a.

.gammons is $70 per month so $840 but you get closer access I beleive

I sub to needam walyat mainly because I find him really irritating and disagree with him a lot so its good to have an opposing opinion but he has made some good calls $5 a month, hes treated recent events as a "buy the dip" for tech stocks. 

[snaga]

2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Seen a couple of mentions of HFEL  - any theories as to why it was on a long term downwards trend which suddenly reversed about november 2023 ? - looks cheap by historical standards IF the current uptrend is sustained ...

pays a nice divi too, about 10% which is just as well, capital gains has just turned green after ~18 months for me, but the divi has been nice.

Edited May 8 by snaga

[janch]

7 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Frizzers expecting the £ to crash soon although he's often wrong.

 

 

He looks to have gone somewhere nice and warm although he does get a lot of aircraft noise.  Does anyone know where he is?

[janch]

Lots of Indians working abroad are sending money home:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-leads-global-inbound-remittances

Also:

According to the IOM, 2022 marks the first year that remittances have overtaken foreign direct investment in low- and middle-earning countries..........

So remittances are now greater than the foreign aid governents such as UK government are forking out.

[sancho panza]

via Merryn Somerset Webb X feed

a few more basement theses go mainstream-see underlined-incredible that noone in gubbermint thought to use GDP per capita rather than the nominal number.......we've only been discussing it tsince the thread started

may be hard to belive but Ive cut a fari chunk out.worth a full read imho

 

https://archive.ph/rmNaD#selection-1387.0-1393.99

Global Housing Shortages Are Crushing Immigration-Fueled Growth

Households go backwards in 13 developed economies as record immigration runs into a housing crisis.

 

Across much of the developed world, one of the most dependable drivers of economic growth is faltering.

For decades, the rapid inflow of migrants helped countries including Canada, Australia and the UK stave off the demographic drag from aging populations and falling birth rates. That’s now breaking down as a surge of arrivals since borders reopened after the pandemic runs headlong into a chronic shortage of homes to accommodate them.

Canada and Australia have escaped recession since their Covid contractions, but their people haven’t with deep per-capita downturns eroding standards of living. The UK’s recession last year looked mild on raw numbers but was deeper and longer when measured on a per-person basis.

All up, thirteen economies across the developed world were in per-capita recessions at the end of last year, according to exclusive analysis by Bloomberg Economics. While there are other factors — such as the shift to less-productive service jobs and the fact that new arrivals typically earn less — housing shortages and associated cost-of-living strains are a common thread.

In Australia, for instance, the inflow of roughly one million people, or 3.7% of the population, since June 2022 helped plug a chronic shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality, aged care and agriculture. And in the UK — an economy near full employment — arrivals from Ukraine, Hong Kong and elsewhere have made up for a lack of workers after Brexit.

While the US has seen a widely-covered surge in authorized and irregular migration, the scale of the increase actually pales in comparison to Canada’s growth rate. For every 1,000 residents, the northern nation brought in 32 people last year, compared with fewer than 10 in the US.

Put another way: Over the past two years, 2.4 million people arrived in Canada, more than New Mexico’s population, yet Canada barely added enough housing for the residents of Albuquerque.

Canada’s experience shows there’s a limit to immigration-fueled growth: Once new arrivals exceed a country’s capacity to absorb them, standards of living decline even if top-line numbers are inflated. The Bank of Nova Scotia estimates a productivity-neutral rate of population growth is less than a third of what Canada saw last year, which would be more in line with the US pace.

Canada’s working-age population grew by a million over the past year but the labor market only created 324,000 jobs. The upshot: The unemployment rate rose by more than a full percentage point, with young people and newcomers again the worst hit.

The chronic underbuilding of homes and decades of continuous rises in prices has drained funds from other parts of the economy toward housing. That lack of investment in capital — combined with firms’ focusing instead on expanding workforces due to cheaper labor costs — has driven down productivity, which the Bank of Canada says is at “emergency” levels.

 

But life won’t be easy Down Under either as many of the same strains are playing out, with Australia facing its worst housing crisis in living memory.

 

Australia’s Housing Crisis: Lessons for the World

Building permits for apartments and town houses are near a 12-year low and there remains a sizable backlog of construction work, largely due to a lack of skilled workers. The government has tried to plug the labor supply gap by boosting the number of migrants, only to find that’s making the problem even worse.

Just like Canada’s experience, the ballooning population is not only exacerbating housing demand, it’s also masking the underlying weakness in the economy.

GDP has expanded every quarter since a short Covid-induced recession in 2020, yet on a per-capita basis, GDP contracted for a third consecutive quarter in the final three months of 2023 — the deepest decline since the early 1990s economic slump.

In absolute terms, Australia’s per-capita GDP is now at a two-year low — a “material under-performance” versus the US and an outcome that could spur higher unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Over in Europe, its largest economy, Germany, also saw a per-capita recession that comes against a backdrop of rising political tensions over a large number of asylum seekers, housing shortages and a misfiring economy. Bloomberg Economics analysis shows that France, Austria and Sweden are also among those who have suffered per-capita recessions.

 

In Britain, too, record levels of migration have begun to weigh on the economy. A technical recession in the second half of last year saw headline GDP slip 0.4%, yet the slump was longer and deeper when adjusted for population. Per-capita GDP has contracted 1.7% since the start of 2022, falling in six out of the seven quarters and stagnating in the other.

With Britain close to full employment and over 850,000 dropping out of its workforce since the pandemic, immigration has helped employers fill widespread worker shortages, not least in the health and social care sectors.

UK GDP has expanded 23% since the start of 2010. On a per-person basis, growth in output has been far less impressive at 12%.

Over the same period, the population has surged, growing an estimated 11%, or almost 7 million, to 69 million. The Office for National Statistics expects it to hit close to 74 million in 2036 in updated population projections that now predict faster growth. Over 90% of the increase in the population expected between 2021 and 2036 will come from migrants, it said in January.

 

 

 

Edited May 8 by sancho panza

[Funn3r]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

And in the UK — an economy near full employment — arrivals from Ukraine, Hong Kong and elsewhere have made up for a lack of workers after Brexit.

 

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

With Britain close to full employment and over 850,000 dropping out of its workforce since the pandemic, immigration has helped employers fill widespread worker shortages, not least in the health and social care sectors.

How can Britain be "close to full employment" when we know there are millions of bennies people and Fake Sickers?

[MrXxxx]

WG. had an offer:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/08/oil-services-company-john-wood-group-rejects-14bn-takeover-offer

...but the other party were 'muppets', offering 35p less than an offer WG. rebuffed last year; things have improved since then i.e. oil prices, and last years offer was from a Private Equity firm...so if they think the assets [to be stripped?] were worth an offer of 240p why would WG. accept todays offer of 205p?!...this QUOTE made me smile:

“The board carefully considered the proposal, together with its financial advisers, and concluded that it fundamentally undervalued Wood and its future prospects,” it said.

Basically then told them to £uck off, and not to try and 'take the pi$$'! :-)))

[Lightscribe]

57 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

 

How can Britain be "close to full employment" when we know there are millions of bennies people and Fake Sickers?

Because of magical 16hr bennie jobs. Our economy revolves around made up part time and grifter gig workers to meet the tax credit threshold so it makes it look like we have a lot more employment on paper than we do. Clever eh?

Shhh just keep it under your hat though 🤫 it’s a good thing for our other main part of the economy, house prices. By carving up respectable houses, renting them out as HMO shitboxes and fleecing the younger generation it’s great for the figures. Meh who needs outdated things like productivity?

Just don’t draw attention to the giant elephant in the room ok, as it’s a good gig we’ve got going on as you’ll spoil it for all of the boomers and MPs. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

via Merryn Somerset Webb X feed

a few more basement theses go mainstream-see underlined-incredible that noone in gubbermint thought to use GDP per capita rather than the nominal number.......we've only been discussing it tsince the thread started

may be hard to belive but Ive cut a fari chunk out.worth a full read imho

 

https://archive.ph/rmNaD#selection-1387.0-1393.99

Global Housing Shortages Are Crushing Immigration-Fueled Growth

Households go backwards in 13 developed economies as record immigration runs into a housing crisis.

 

Across much of the developed world, one of the most dependable drivers of economic growth is faltering.

For decades, the rapid inflow of migrants helped countries including Canada, Australia and the UK stave off the demographic drag from aging populations and falling birth rates. That’s now breaking down as a surge of arrivals since borders reopened after the pandemic runs headlong into a chronic shortage of homes to accommodate them.

Canada and Australia have escaped recession since their Covid contractions, but their people haven’t with deep per-capita downturns eroding standards of living. The UK’s recession last year looked mild on raw numbers but was deeper and longer when measured on a per-person basis.

All up, thirteen economies across the developed world were in per-capita recessions at the end of last year, according to exclusive analysis by Bloomberg Economics. While there are other factors — such as the shift to less-productive service jobs and the fact that new arrivals typically earn less — housing shortages and associated cost-of-living strains are a common thread.

In Australia, for instance, the inflow of roughly one million people, or 3.7% of the population, since June 2022 helped plug a chronic shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality, aged care and agriculture. And in the UK — an economy near full employment — arrivals from Ukraine, Hong Kong and elsewhere have made up for a lack of workers after Brexit.

While the US has seen a widely-covered surge in authorized and irregular migration, the scale of the increase actually pales in comparison to Canada’s growth rate. For every 1,000 residents, the northern nation brought in 32 people last year, compared with fewer than 10 in the US.

Put another way: Over the past two years, 2.4 million people arrived in Canada, more than New Mexico’s population, yet Canada barely added enough housing for the residents of Albuquerque.

Canada’s experience shows there’s a limit to immigration-fueled growth: Once new arrivals exceed a country’s capacity to absorb them, standards of living decline even if top-line numbers are inflated. The Bank of Nova Scotia estimates a productivity-neutral rate of population growth is less than a third of what Canada saw last year, which would be more in line with the US pace.

Canada’s working-age population grew by a million over the past year but the labor market only created 324,000 jobs. The upshot: The unemployment rate rose by more than a full percentage point, with young people and newcomers again the worst hit.

The chronic underbuilding of homes and decades of continuous rises in prices has drained funds from other parts of the economy toward housing. That lack of investment in capital — combined with firms’ focusing instead on expanding workforces due to cheaper labor costs — has driven down productivity, which the Bank of Canada says is at “emergency” levels.

 

But life won’t be easy Down Under either as many of the same strains are playing out, with Australia facing its worst housing crisis in living memory.

 

Australia’s Housing Crisis: Lessons for the World

Building permits for apartments and town houses are near a 12-year low and there remains a sizable backlog of construction work, largely due to a lack of skilled workers. The government has tried to plug the labor supply gap by boosting the number of migrants, only to find that’s making the problem even worse.

Just like Canada’s experience, the ballooning population is not only exacerbating housing demand, it’s also masking the underlying weakness in the economy.

GDP has expanded every quarter since a short Covid-induced recession in 2020, yet on a per-capita basis, GDP contracted for a third consecutive quarter in the final three months of 2023 — the deepest decline since the early 1990s economic slump.

In absolute terms, Australia’s per-capita GDP is now at a two-year low — a “material under-performance” versus the US and an outcome that could spur higher unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Over in Europe, its largest economy, Germany, also saw a per-capita recession that comes against a backdrop of rising political tensions over a large number of asylum seekers, housing shortages and a misfiring economy. Bloomberg Economics analysis shows that France, Austria and Sweden are also among those who have suffered per-capita recessions.

 

In Britain, too, record levels of migration have begun to weigh on the economy. A technical recession in the second half of last year saw headline GDP slip 0.4%, yet the slump was longer and deeper when adjusted for population. Per-capita GDP has contracted 1.7% since the start of 2022, falling in six out of the seven quarters and stagnating in the other.

With Britain close to full employment and over 850,000 dropping out of its workforce since the pandemic, immigration has helped employers fill widespread worker shortages, not least in the health and social care sectors.

UK GDP has expanded 23% since the start of 2010. On a per-person basis, growth in output has been far less impressive at 12%.

Over the same period, the population has surged, growing an estimated 11%, or almost 7 million, to 69 million. The Office for National Statistics expects it to hit close to 74 million in 2036 in updated population projections that now predict faster growth. Over 90% of the increase in the population expected between 2021 and 2036 will come from migrants, it said in January.

 

 

 

It is worse than that. Imputed rent has risen because of an increased population.  The existing housing stock is generating more GDP because we're trying to cram more people into it. This demonstrates how stupid GDP is as a measure of economic wellbeing.  A better measure would be disposable income per capita. No doubt that is falling more rapidly than GDP per capita. Although the latter is likely worse than reported if you doubt the inflation statistics, as I do.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

 

How can Britain be "close to full employment" when we know there are millions of bennies people and Fake Sickers?

Full employment is a malleable statistic. It must never be achieved or else workers would have pricing power.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It is worse than that. Imputed rent has risen because of an increased population.  The existing housing stock is generating more GDP because we're trying to cram more people into it. This demonstrates how stupid GDP is as a measure of economic wellbeing.  A better measure would be disposable income per capita. No doubt that is falling more rapidly than GDP per capita. Although the latter is likely worse than reported if you doubt the inflation statistics, as I do.

It is easy to have an economy when you are constructing stuff(both private and public) with printed and borrowed money.

This was the US Economy from WW1  once the Gold Rush was done and dusted.

Once you have a 'built world' around you its over and the importation of millions of useless feckers just accelerates the demise.

[Long time lurking]

 

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

via Merryn Somerset Webb X feed

a few more basement theses go mainstream-see underlined-incredible that noone in gubbermint thought to use GDP per capita rather than the nominal number.......we've only been discussing it tsince the thread started

may be hard to belive but Ive cut a fari chunk out.worth a full read imho

 

https://archive.ph/rmNaD#selection-1387.0-1393.99

Global Housing Shortages Are Crushing Immigration-Fueled Growth

Households go backwards in 13 developed economies as record immigration runs into a housing crisis.

 

Across much of the developed world, one of the most dependable drivers of economic growth is faltering.

For decades, the rapid inflow of migrants helped countries including Canada, Australia and the UK stave off the demographic drag from aging populations and falling birth rates. That’s now breaking down as a surge of arrivals since borders reopened after the pandemic runs headlong into a chronic shortage of homes to accommodate them.

Canada and Australia have escaped recession since their Covid contractions, but their people haven’t with deep per-capita downturns eroding standards of living. The UK’s recession last year looked mild on raw numbers but was deeper and longer when measured on a per-person basis.

All up, thirteen economies across the developed world were in per-capita recessions at the end of last year, according to exclusive analysis by Bloomberg Economics. While there are other factors — such as the shift to less-productive service jobs and the fact that new arrivals typically earn less — housing shortages and associated cost-of-living strains are a common thread.

In Australia, for instance, the inflow of roughly one million people, or 3.7% of the population, since June 2022 helped plug a chronic shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality, aged care and agriculture. And in the UK — an economy near full employment — arrivals from Ukraine, Hong Kong and elsewhere have made up for a lack of workers after Brexit.

While the US has seen a widely-covered surge in authorized and irregular migration, the scale of the increase actually pales in comparison to Canada’s growth rate. For every 1,000 residents, the northern nation brought in 32 people last year, compared with fewer than 10 in the US.

Put another way: Over the past two years, 2.4 million people arrived in Canada, more than New Mexico’s population, yet Canada barely added enough housing for the residents of Albuquerque.

Canada’s experience shows there’s a limit to immigration-fueled growth: Once new arrivals exceed a country’s capacity to absorb them, standards of living decline even if top-line numbers are inflated. The Bank of Nova Scotia estimates a productivity-neutral rate of population growth is less than a third of what Canada saw last year, which would be more in line with the US pace.

Canada’s working-age population grew by a million over the past year but the labor market only created 324,000 jobs. The upshot: The unemployment rate rose by more than a full percentage point, with young people and newcomers again the worst hit.

The chronic underbuilding of homes and decades of continuous rises in prices has drained funds from other parts of the economy toward housing. That lack of investment in capital — combined with firms’ focusing instead on expanding workforces due to cheaper labor costs — has driven down productivity, which the Bank of Canada says is at “emergency” levels.

 

But life won’t be easy Down Under either as many of the same strains are playing out, with Australia facing its worst housing crisis in living memory.

 

Australia’s Housing Crisis: Lessons for the World

Building permits for apartments and town houses are near a 12-year low and there remains a sizable backlog of construction work, largely due to a lack of skilled workers. The government has tried to plug the labor supply gap by boosting the number of migrants, only to find that’s making the problem even worse.

Just like Canada’s experience, the ballooning population is not only exacerbating housing demand, it’s also masking the underlying weakness in the economy.

GDP has expanded every quarter since a short Covid-induced recession in 2020, yet on a per-capita basis, GDP contracted for a third consecutive quarter in the final three months of 2023 — the deepest decline since the early 1990s economic slump.

In absolute terms, Australia’s per-capita GDP is now at a two-year low — a “material under-performance” versus the US and an outcome that could spur higher unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Over in Europe, its largest economy, Germany, also saw a per-capita recession that comes against a backdrop of rising political tensions over a large number of asylum seekers, housing shortages and a misfiring economy. Bloomberg Economics analysis shows that France, Austria and Sweden are also among those who have suffered per-capita recessions.

 

In Britain, too, record levels of migration have begun to weigh on the economy. A technical recession in the second half of last year saw headline GDP slip 0.4%, yet the slump was longer and deeper when adjusted for population. Per-capita GDP has contracted 1.7% since the start of 2022, falling in six out of the seven quarters and stagnating in the other.

With Britain close to full employment and over 850,000 dropping out of its workforce since the pandemic, immigration has helped employers fill widespread worker shortages, not least in the health and social care sectors.

UK GDP has expanded 23% since the start of 2010. On a per-person basis, growth in output has been far less impressive at 12%.

Over the same period, the population has surged, growing an estimated 11%, or almost 7 million, to 69 million. The Office for National Statistics expects it to hit close to 74 million in 2036 in updated population projections that now predict faster growth. Over 90% of the increase in the population expected between 2021 and 2036 will come from migrants, it said in January.

Interesting thanks SP. 'GDP' is used a lot in that article the problem is it's a false concept, the situation is far worse than the article sees it.

GDP as a measure is totally pointless, Dr Tim has it sussed. He's been talking sense for more than ten years I've been reading his blog, I introduced his site here several years ago IMO he needs more coverage.

'Over that same period, global real GDP expanded by $45tn, or 74%. This means that each dollar of reported growth between 2002 and 2023 was accompanied by $3.20 of net new debt, or by about $8 of net new broad financial assets.

If it takes somewhere between $3 and $8 of new debt or quasi-debt to generate a dollar of GDP growth, paying off debt incurred in the present from growth generated in the future is a mathematical impossibility.

An example here is the United States which, during 2023, generated reported real growth of $675bn on the back of a $2.4tn fiscal deficit.'

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/07/277-at-the-limits-of-monetary-possibility/#comments

[Long time lurking]

 

[leonardratso]

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flexible isa as well apparently, making the s&s isa flexible as well, doesnt say when though.

 

ah it does actually;
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Edited May 8 by leonardratso

[Plan-b]

8 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

The most terrifying words in the world...

"I'm from the Government and I am here to help"