Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

Well i`m more skeptical than that ,nothing happens in politics by accident

I see more and more now regarding the end of ICE by 2035 which was 230 now being kicked down the road  

With a small tinfoil hat on i`m thinking it was/is all a successful psyop against Chain who seems to have skiped ICE development in the car market and gone all in on EV`s ,,call it protectionism via psyops  

Yes I think I agree. After all i call the activists environ"mental"ists because I view them as being useful idiots and are in reality funded and manipulated by the big money/elites. 

But to be clear, when you refer to a small tinfoil hat, are you suggesting that China has been successfully manipulated/psyoped, by perhaps the same above US big money/elites(?), with a covert strategy to eventually bankrupt China's economy, similar to perhaps what the US outcome was for the USSR when it forced it to compete and spend big on defence?

Edited May 9 by JMD

[Plan-b]

Did Pm's particularly silver sniff something today? Or not - we'll see, Or was it this?

I don't normally post this sort of thing but today I thought I would. I didn't watch the accompanying video either as it's TLDW. I have no idea if the people shown here are credible or not.

https://twitter.com/JimFergusonUK/status/1788503981469094071

[Axeman123]

39 minutes ago, Errol said:

Endeavour Silver, in particular, has gone mental today.

Silver has regained $28, and probably will make an attempt at $30 next.

Anything could happen of course, but silver breaking above $30 would be the final breakout required for an undisputed PM bull-run.

[Funn3r]

Not so interesting to the thread's more knowledgeable perhaps but I found it a very good explanation of why the US economy is paralysed by debt and (over)spending. To me looks to apply exactly to UK as well.

https://www.rt.com/business/596899-us-fiscal-crisis-debt/
Usual anti-censorship access measures required if you are in UK.

[Pip321]

8 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

P118? Your friend is fucked if so AIUI.

Analysis of why for anyone interested:

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/02/14/property118_caught/

Just been reading the link and got some real Deja vu. It took me back years to when this Sec 24 all kicked off…..and the comments from leverage landlords just haven’t moved on. Makes me sad and angry really. 

“We are providing a service, being a LL is really hard, we house the needy, rents will soar without us, homelessness will be rife due to sec 24, it’s all unfair….” 

For me, Sec 24 was a nuisance but its rationale was fairly simple in my mind. If I can claim full tax relief, I can buy a house and rent it for £1000 at an interest only cost to me of say £500…..and there were 2 million landlords and growing.  So if each of those landlords decided to own 10/12 houses that is the entire housing stock bought up with no owner occupiers left.

Now that may not have been the reason but I thought…well, I’ve had a good run but luckily saved a wad of money during the low interest phase. Also I had been selling to buy new stuff rather than borrowing more so realising CGT allowances along the way with modest but fair amounts of tax. So no more buying…start selling/consolidating. 

The issue was “the entitled” just felt they were Joseph Rowntree providing for the poor…..when they should have just been honest. I am an benevolent landlord (many are paying 60% of current rents achievable)….but I knew what I was, I was using someone else’s earnings in a form of rent to buy me houses for free. I can be reasonably fair and help my customers but hardly charitable.

Anyhoo….thanks for posting. Interesting read. The lesson for me, whether it’s property, shares, business or even just life….if you believe you are right despite the law/government saying otherwise and then dig your heals in then you will lose. 

For example, Poly metal for me is a bummer….unfair, bastards, write the fucker off, move on. Or I can cry and moan for 6 years like some of these 118’ers have and never buy shares again. I can believe I am right but it’s best to move on….😎😉

[Lightscribe]

Took some profits on Endeavor and ABRA today and bought some MUX.

Bit of a harsh drop because of Q1 results.

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Poly metal

Evraz is the same for me. Thankfully only £2k of original capital, offset by other gains.

[Ash4781b]

5 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

No cut today but the FTSE liked Baileys comments "we might have to cut rates further than expected in the future " or words to that effect 

How long can the promise of Jam tomorrow last before everyone realises they have no jam  

He will have to deliver. He’s in a decent place I think though because I don’t think Labour or I guess a new Tory will get a new governor. They will fear it will worry market etc. We already know bank forecasts are bad as a report came out on it. Maybe they have fixed them? But forecasting this interest rate cut looking a bit off already 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Evraz is the same for me. Thankfully only £2k of original capital, offset by other gains.

I bought Evraz as a protest but really small amount. 

Protest? I saw Ukraine being signalled by NATO and the US weeks before it started (some I know saw it a decade before). But I just couldn’t believe the tone, and then the financial sanctions (rather than actual physical help eg tanks on the borders etc) illustrated this was all a game about money.

Literally that was my awakening re everything and I was just joining this thread. I was shocked how macro investors on YouTube etc were so matter of fact about this is how things are….war, like water running down hill. I thought it was all chaos when infact it’s all planned. 

Putin no saint….but I couldn’t believe how wars are antagonised and profited from at the cost of real lives. Naive I know. 

Basically I bought what would have been about £8500 worth of Evraz but I bought them right at the bottom for less than £500. Literally a gamble and protest. They climbed to £800….then poof, they were gone.😂

i am hoping I see that money again one day….but I don’t expect to. Moved on….now I just disregard MSM and contribute as little as possible to this pile of piss system. 😉

Edited May 9 by Pip321

[Long time lurking]

33 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

He will have to deliver. He’s in a decent place I think though because I don’t think Labour or I guess a new Tory will get a new governor. They will fear it will worry market etc. We already know bank forecasts are bad as a report came out on it. Maybe they have fixed them? But forecasting this interest rate cut looking a bit off already 

They have been doing the same for well over a year ,ask Stuey he`s still waiting for his jam

[Mandalorian]

8 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

They have been doing the same for well over a year ,ask Stuey he`s still waiting for his jam

I must log into ToS and watch him throwing his toys out of the pram.

[Long time lurking]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes I think I agree. After all i call the activists environ"mental"ists because I view them as being useful idiots and are in reality funded and manipulated by the big money/elites. 

But to be clear, when you refer to a small tinfoil hat, are you suggesting that China has been successfully manipulated/psyoped, by perhaps the same above US big money/elites(?), with a covert strategy to eventually bankrupt China's economy, similar to perhaps what the US outcome was for the USSR when it forced it to compete and spend big on defence?

I would not go that far but maintaining it`s dominance in the ICE vehicle manufacturing industry ,as China have gone balls deep in electric vehicles rather than ICE ,i might be making five from two plus two though 

But the whole no more ICE game looks to be falling over  all of a sudden along with the carbon tax credits etc seems a tad suspicious

[feed]

38 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

But the whole no more ICE game looks to be falling over all of a sudden along with the carbon tax credits etc seems a tad suspicious

You were always going to be able to buy ICE.  So long as they're profitable.   

Ford threatens to restrict petrol car sales to meet the UK’s EV targets | Auto Express

Martin Sander, told the Financial Times’ Future of the Car Summit: “We can’t push EVs into the market against demand. We’re not going to pay penalties. We are not going to sell EVs at huge losses just to buy compliance. The only alternative is to take our shipments of [engine-powered] vehicles to the UK down, and sell these vehicles somewhere else”.

Sander warned that the impact of such a move could mean inflated prices for traditional petrol and diesel cars if consumer demand for ICE engined vehicles can’t be met by potentially limited supply.

 

 

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

You were always going to be able to buy ICE.  So long as they're profitable.   

Well that's my point ,it was all bollocks from an economic point of view ,i don`t buy that the governments of the whole of the west could not see it ,hence why i think it was/is all a psyop what that was about i don`t really know all we can do is guess 

I`m pretty sure most of the green energy industry is nothing more than a tax fiddle so perhaps that is the psyop   

[feed]

3 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Well that's my point ,it was all bollocks from an economic point of view ,i don`t buy that the governments of the whole of the west could not see it ,hence why i think it was/is all a psyop what that was about i don`t really know all we can do is guess 

I`m pretty sure most of the green energy industry is nothing more than a tax fiddle so perhaps that is the psyop   

High volume, low price ICE are an untenable business model.  The state is running cover for the western/legacy autos to prevent them being overtaken by Chinese or Indian manufacturers.  There is no psyop.  It's old fashioned profit and protectionism.  

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, feed said:

High volume, low price ICE are an untenable business model.  The state is running cover for the western/legacy autos to prevent them being overtaken by Chinese or Indian manufacturers.  There is no psyop.  It's old fashioned profit and protectionism.  

So are EV`s to a far greater extent ,so why push them when they know they could never compete with China on that front which has been proven 

 

[wherebee]

11 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s been obvious for a long time there was something else behind all this other than climate the question is what ,as none of it made any sense economically 

 

I worked this out almost a decade ago when looking into carbon offsets for flying (my then employer wanted to make it policy to add it in to every work flight).  I found that the 'offset' money just went into a bunch of shit including flying people round the world as consultants to talk about climate change, which was somehow classified as 'offset worthy'.

Then of course there was the huge offset fraud company, I forget the name, that was exposure as planting no trees despite selling huge volumes of 'licenses' etc etc.

It's all a scam.

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I worked this out almost a decade ago when looking into carbon offsets for flying (my then employer wanted to make it policy to add it in to every work flight).  I found that the 'offset' money just went into a bunch of shit including flying people round the world as consultants to talk about climate change, which was somehow classified as 'offset worthy'.

Then of course there was the huge offset fraud company, I forget the name, that was exposure as planting no trees despite selling huge volumes of 'licenses' etc etc.

It's all a scam.

Tesco have been trying to strong arm us (and all their other suppliers) into planting some trees. That they want to be able to claim the 'credit' for.

[feed]

3 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

So are EV`s to a far greater extent ,so why push them when they know they could never compete with China on that front which has been proven 

 

No they're not. The business model for EV is fundamentally different from the shift the metal via a franchised dealership and profit on after sales and service that is ICE.  

China, that's what that state is there for.  Environmental regulations or tariffs to keep imports out.

 

[Long time lurking]

28 minutes ago, feed said:

No they're not. The business model for EV is fundamentally different from the shift the metal via a franchised dealership and profit on after sales and service that is ICE.  

China, that's what that state is there for.  Environmental regulations or tariffs to keep imports out.

 

So you reckon EVs are a high volume low price and a tenable business model  ?,yet you quoted what ford said as why ICE will always be available 

You have lost me on that one 

[feed]

2 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

So you reckon EVs are a high volume low price and a tenable business model?

The

business

model

is 

fundamentally

different

 

or did you miss that bit.  

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, feed said:

Who woke silver up

Silver was woke up late last year as soon as low AISC non hedged gold miners started to turn (aka Harmony, Eldorado) then in turn Gatos in silver.

Everything else since has been paper manipulating against the tide of physical from the East over US treasuries. Loss of faith via sanctions.

We’ve just been in a western desperate damage limitation since. That damn is breaking.

Edited May 9 by Lightscribe

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, feed said:

The

business

model

is 

fundamentally

different

 

or did you miss that bit.  

Nope one makes money for the manufacture the other costs them money but the former is not viable ,,got it 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Sidd]

On 06/05/2024 at 23:19, Bien Pensant said:

Money is evidence of debt, simple as that.

If you think about how it comes into being - someone gives it to someone else when they have nothing the other party actually wants at the time - then that's all it is.

Some people say that it's an unusual form of debt because, unlike banknotes where the risk is, theoretically, reduced by swapping personal IOUs for those of large and well-known organisations, which can average out the risk among many debtors (which is why I refer to banks as 'credit insurers'), the risk is spread among all the users of the tokens.

However, in any case, there's no way that 'money' of any kind, even gold, can 'extinguish debt'.

Ultimately, only desirable goods and services can do that and most of the economic sophistry you hear that attempts to make money sound like something other than debt is really about obfuscating that fact, in order to justify debasement by issuing credit to cover for a lack of capital in the economy.

In its simplistic form, Money enables a rich old man in Dubai to become a sugar daddy of a girl like this (which would otherwise not happen):

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6gCsWIyAIU/?igsh=aWVqMnN0YmcwNWtz