Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, Bien Pensant said:

 

Holy shit, they could at least pretend:

Like I said. Cunt.

[Pip321]

23 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Like I said. Cunt.

Cunt…Politician….same thing. nothing surprises me. 
No exceptions with the main political parties.

Whether it’s starting wars, printing money, increasing their own pensions, giving their mates mates public sector contracts, saying one thing doing another, being woke, sending back 50 immigrants whilst bringing on 700,000 others, fiddling expenses, swapping allegiances, jabbing babies, following current populous trend, telling us to not use a boiler from their 6 litre Audi etc etc.

Feeding house prices like this gets more votes than it loses…that’s it. Simple. Beyond that they just don’t care. 

I couldn’t single out one in particular politician as being a cunt….it suggests others aren’t. 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Bien Pensant said:

 

Holy shit, they could at least pretend:

Rachel with the rack,how many times have i told you monetising welfare is why rates are high and public sector pensions.Housing bennies for the imported 3rd world means workers cannot compete.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

Last time the PMs ran i had very big holdings in Sibanye and Harmony,very big.I decided for the points you made to lower the exposure to SA and decided to sell Sibanye for i think 50% profit and hold Harmony.That cost me over £50k in lost profits.Harmony trebled,but so did Sib.Iv decided on these situations to accept you just have to accept the risk,but keep the holding sizes where it would hurt,but not jump off a bridge hurt.The US needs SA for platinum,everyone does.

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

Money talks. 

Africa is a keystone of resources and most of the global cabal has skin in the game within the country to avoid upsetting the apple cart. China’s made huge investments. Look at France’s stockpile of gold in exchange for a made up CFA currency that they installed. Fuckwhittery in SA would destabilise the rest of Africa, no one wants that.

And in regards to any internal trouble, Sibanye take their security very seriously.

Edited May 11 by Lightscribe

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Errol said:

I've been trying to find a global ex-US etf that is available in the UK.

Some etfs have a reduced share of the US (e.g. 21%), else diy a set of regional etfs ex-US.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

If worried about such geo-poly, you could also add ICJ/Gaza.

PS:  BTW, was on some other threads and was musing how nice it is to get an Aus perspective on things.

Edited May 11 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

That cost me over £50k in lost profits.

At least only lost profits!

26 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Money talks. 

Africa is a keystone of resources and most of the global cabal has skin in the game within the country to avoid upsetting the apple cart. China’s made huge investments. Look at France’s stockpile of gold in exchange for a made up CFA currency that they installed. Fuckwhittery in SA would destabilise the rest of Africa, no one wants that.

And in regards to any internal trouble, Sibanye take their security very seriously.

It's a fascinating read if you're in the global security business, etc.  Else ya probably never know.

Edited May 11 by Harley

[Harley]

Triggered by a couple of upthread posts about holding too much cash, we tried to go on a buying spree yesterday. 

Everything, especially equities, is very expensive on a technical basis.  For example, W and M stochastics heading to or in the 80's with MACDs maturing. 

Dailies not much better but hard to use those if it means buying into such headwinds (i.e. betting intermediate overbought becomes more overbought). 

Best we could do was mainly buy some low vol income stuff or take small initial positions in some targets.

Fine if ya in else wait at the stop for a less full bus and risk getting mugged! 

Edited May 11 by Harley

[Castlevania]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Triggered by a couple of upthread posts about holding too much cash, we tried to go on a buying spree yesterday.  Everything, especially equities, is very expensive on a technical basis.  For example, W and M stochastics in the 80's and MACDs maturing.  Dailies not much better but hard to use those if it means buying into such headwinds (i.e. betting overbought becomes more overbought).

Agreed. Not seeing much value. Even my go to boring stuff that I like to buy when I can’t think of anything better to put to work have rallied over the past few weeks (Philip Morris I’m looking at you).

[Plan-b]

Mining In South Africa. Waiting - Still patiently waiting..

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Agreed. Not seeing much value. Even my go to boring stuff that I like to buy when I can’t think of anything better to put to work have rallied over the past few weeks (Philip Morris I’m looking at you).

And then there's concentration risk.  I'd be unhappy with anything more than 5% in a holding, a stock or a fund.

[Jay]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

Sa has been a basket case for years..sibanye looks like a value play..the Rand is weak and weakening..risky sure but I will add more to  my existing holdings as a risk reward for me looks worthwhile..it s also a uranium and Rand weakness play..the gold will be a bonus..us is more interested in South America than South Africa..if gold gets to 5k I will have long sold..be lucky..

[Harley]

42 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Agreed. Not seeing much value. Even my go to boring stuff that I like to buy when I can’t think of anything better to put to work have rallied over the past few weeks (Philip Morris I’m looking at you).

It also, for us, does potentially support the notion of keeping an individual stock/bond portfolio in addition to fund portfolios just to better mitigate certain risks, even at the "cost" of higher other risks and more work.

Edited May 11 by Harley

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Mining In South Africa. Waiting - Still patiently waiting..

The beauty of techs over narratives, etc is I can "agree" to such posts!  Not that I've done any more of a technical analysis that look at that chart!

Edited May 11 by Harley

[Lightscribe]

22 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Mining In South Africa. Waiting - Still patiently waiting..

Big fuck off divi that landed in your account the other day should help aliviate the waiting 

[Castlevania]

25 minutes ago, Harley said:

And then there's concentration risk.  I'd be unhappy with anything more than 5% in a holding, a stock or a fund.

Same. My biggest holding is currently Hochschild and that’s roughly 4.5% of my overall pot.

[Harley]

I get a bit fed up with energy talk (so left swipe most MacroVoices podcasts ) but glad I persevered with this one for the truth bombs like "Germany hasn't moved to wind and solar, it's just de-industrised"!

https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/20900/mark-mills-policy-vs-reality-and-coming-energy-storm

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Same. My biggest holding is currently Hochschild and that’s roughly 4.5% of my overall pot.

 

 

[wherebee]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Same. My biggest holding is currently Hochschild and that’s roughly 4.5% of my overall pot.

goodness me.  I must be an outlier - I have 3 stocks at 20% each.  Very diversified in terms if industry, country, etc.

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

goodness me.  I must be an outlier - I have 3 stocks at 20% each.  Very diversified in terms if industry, country, etc.

How much is that in terms of annual savings? 4.5% is around about what I can save in a year. Don’t really want a position that’s more than that.

 

Edit: which stocks are those? You must have a very high conviction.

Edited May 11 by Castlevania

[Hunty]

One thing I've noticed about Polymetal since the waterfall is the stages management and the board go through over the past 26 months. I'd be interested to hear others opinions. First denial this really cost shareholders as they acted far too slow, they should have split the company as soon as April 2022 but they did not they plodded on.

Now the situation is vastly different but it has an earily feeling that the board and management are not acting in the best interests of retail shareholders. This is a consequence of bad decisions early on in the stage of the share price demise. The huge swathes of retail shareholders who bought in the dip are now seen as a weight around the board's neck and possibly slowing the push for a listing on a fluid exchange. In other words make retail sweat so test weak hands, I could be wrong?

At this stage of the cycle where it does feel like a standoff between retail and the CEO it just shows the damage that has been done through poor decisions being made and denial.

I can't talk about SA as I know nothing about it. But from experience with RU company's listed on Western Exchanges, sometimes the enemy at first is you're own government but later when the dust settles and the institutional investors want their shares back at a discounted price. The Board and management become hostile to retail and so it becomes how long is too long to wait.

Watching from afar now as i only hold a reasonable size position,  but now politicians have lost interest; but in my opinion there is a lot of value in the current company but the captain at the helm is not ready or has not been given the hat tip to allow this value to be captured by investors. 

It's interesting and something I never took into consideration when I stated buying shares. Government and companies boards are quite different but the same beast when problem's arise and money is to be lost or made.

I do think Polymetal will again rise as the experience the company behold is baked in and their AISC is only beaten by Russias largest PM miner.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Money talks. 

Africa is a keystone of resources and most of the global cabal has skin in the game within the country to avoid upsetting the apple cart. China’s made huge investments. Look at France’s stockpile of gold in exchange for a made up CFA currency that they installed. Fuckwhittery in SA would destabilise the rest of Africa, no one wants that.

And in regards to any internal trouble, Sibanye take their security very seriously.

Froneman the CEO has been telling western governments that miners are being outbid on mines by China,and if the west wants a secure supply of the metals of the future they need to help the miners.The west is asleep at the wheel on this.Its why they kept the US PGM mine running even with steep losses,because they see it as political.They want to be the supplier of PGMs and other "green" metals in the US.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, Bien Pensant said:

 

Holy shit, they could at least pretend:

Maybe Labour are looking toward the US for inspiration - where the US government, via Freddy and Fanny, shockingly already underwrite 85% of all bank mortgages. And their next proposal is apparently to encourage masses of house equity release.

Actually in terms of house market props I recall Labour not long ago saying they wanted to 'help'(!?) renters and bennies buy their own home. Plus I guess if the US (empire) are already doing these types of mortgage manipulation, then we in the 'provinces' will be permitted to also.   ...Ie there would be little risk of an embarrassing Truss-takedown for daring to step out of line!

 

 

 

Edited May 11 by JMD

[Lightscribe]

https://archive.ph/4CYcB
 

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