Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[spygirl]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

Maybe Labour are looking toward the US for inspiration - where the US government, via Freddy and Fanny, shockingly already underwrite 85% of all bank mortgages. And their next proposal is apparently to encourage masses of house equity release.

Actually in terms of house market props I recall Labour not long ago saying they wanted to 'help'(!?) renters and bennies buy their own home. Plus I guess if the US (empire) are already doing these types of mortgage manipulation, then we in the 'provinces' will be permitted to also.   ...Ie there would be little risk of an embarrassing Truss-takedown for daring to step out of line!

 

 

 

The worldwide outside of USA underwrites Us mortgages.

US prints the bonds, foreigners buy it, money used to give 30y fixes to us homeowners.

But it's very much a market price - US mortgages didn't go under 4%

They are currently 7%

[Long time lurking]

 

[Pip321]

8 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

The key is if this end of empire stuff, wheelbarrows full of money, inflation, real poverty then the best way to beat it is to take 10’s of millions from the system before it blows.

Those close to the top know this and whilst we scurry around trying to make 6/7% or save tax in a ISA…..those at the top are taking the big prizes.

Said it before…they will do anything, even start wars killing millions just to improve their position. Either very good men or very bad men are required to run a country, exceptional people….unfortunately ‘where have all the good men gone’ 

Its our fault though….we (royal we) either vote for them or focus our attention on how it will be worse if another side gets in.

The system needs changing…..and at the point of collapse we will be offered change but only by our overlords who will benefit the most from it.

Happy Saturday….i am going to kick football round for an hour with 11 other guys. That’s all I can do today to resolve the matter. 🤦🏻‍♂️…..but it will be fun. 

[Lightly Toasted]

13 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Its our fault though….we (royal we) either vote for them or focus our attention on how it will be worse if another side gets in.

The system needs changing…..and at the point of collapse we will be offered change but only by our overlords who will benefit the most from it.

 

"The sooner we are rid of this rotten, incompetent Conservative Government, the sooner we will be rid of the rotten, incompetent Labour government that will replace it." -- David Miller in a letter to The Telegraph

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

The worldwide outside of USA underwrites Us mortgages.

US prints the bonds, foreigners buy it, money used to give 30y fixes to us homeowners.

But it's very much a market price - US mortgages didn't go under 4%

They are currently 7%

They got to 3% for a 30 year fix

35 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The key is if this end of empire stuff, wheelbarrows full of money, inflation, real poverty then the best way to beat it is to take 10’s of millions from the system before it blows.

Those close to the top know this and whilst we scurry around trying to make 6/7% or save tax in a ISA…..those at the top are taking the big prizes.

Said it before…they will do anything, even start wars killing millions just to improve their position. Either very good men or very bad men are required to run a country, exceptional people….unfortunately ‘where have all the good men gone’ 

Its our fault though….we (royal we) either vote for them or focus our attention on how it will be worse if another side gets in.

The system needs changing…..and at the point of collapse we will be offered change but only by our overlords who will benefit the most from it.

Happy Saturday….i am going to kick football round for an hour with 11 other guys. That’s all I can do today to resolve the matter. 🤦🏻‍♂️…..but it will be fun. 

So follow the money

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

 

What a load of utter wank (the video!)!

Edited May 11 by Harley

[ILikeCake]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Lord Houchen reelected last week.

[afly]

On 10/05/2024 at 17:01, DurhamBorn said:

Time to even out my Eurovision book now for all green big profits.Croatia odds on and Israel 4.5s now,i love taking money off the woke  

 

Facking ‘ell DB. You may well pull this off! Italy accidentally revealed a whopping 39% vote for Isreal in the semis. Runner up was like 7%. Not a massively pro Isreal country either. 

The woke backlash against Isreal and general moaning by their fellow contestants seems to be mobilising voters. My timelines are flooded with people saying they’ll back Isreal just to upset the palimorons and I’ll be joining them.  

Would the EBU allow it though? They could force the jury vote to avoid an upset 🤔 

 

hopefully make for an exciting night either way 

 

Edit:

looks like EBU will be taking no shit 

 

 

 

Edited May 11 by afly

[Axeman123]

Silly question etc, but WTF is Israel even in Eurovision? They would belong in the Asianvision song contest if there was one.

[afly]

7 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Silly question etc, but WTF is Israel even in Eurovision? They would belong in the Asianvision song contest if there was one.

Cause they wanted to be in a music competition but their surrounding neighbours  only interests are fucking goats and stoning people to death for listening to music 

[honkydonkey]

20 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Silly question etc, but WTF is Israel even in Eurovision? They would belong in the Asianvision song contest if there was one.

Turns out eurovision has fuck all to do with Europe and is more to do with members of EBN which contains many none European countries.

[Castlevania]

43 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Silly question etc, but WTF is Israel even in Eurovision? They would belong in the Asianvision song contest if there was one.

They’re a member of UEFA too.

Basically all the countries around them hate them, so they are a part of Europe.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

They got to 3% for a 30 year fix

So follow the money

Only for a very brief period, when people were buying shotguns n beans rather than houses.

[Long time lurking]

 

 

[Errol]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://archive.ph/4CYcB
 

Free market capitalism

China will respond with identical tarrifs on Apple and Tesla products.

[afly]

Trashed by the judges. Uk public voted for Isreal 12 pts. Be fascinated to see other country results 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 hours ago, wherebee said:

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

Maybe but that would be racist. The bar for sanctioning South Africa is almost uniquely high.

I wouldn't have a double figure percentage invested in SA but I don't rule it out entirely.

[wherebee]

18 hours ago, Castlevania said:

How much is that in terms of annual savings? 4.5% is around about what I can save in a year. Don’t really want a position that’s more than that.

 

Edit: which stocks are those? You must have a very high conviction.

BAT, GDXJ, SEDY

GDXJ has grown by 100% by trading in and out since 20.  BAT I've dip fed.  SEDY I filled up on at the low of 1140; It's the riskiest one, I think, due to geopolitical risks.

GDXJ is a one way bet now.  It has to be due to the global fiat pressures; I'm up 36% as of today on the average price paid.  Written elsewhere that one is for selling at tranches as it goes up

BAT - I plan on living to 83 and getting 30 years dividends.

SEDY - Another one to sell out of in tranches.  Up 11% on bought price, plus the divvies are nice of course.

I am expecting more global cabal/government fuckery to try to impoverish me and mine; I am lower middle classish, which is the target 100% for western governments including here in Australia.  So I have to gamble a bit to keep ahead of the bastards, is my view.  

And if I lose it all?  Then I devote my energies to working out how to access the moolah from government schemes.  As an example:

https://www.wa.gov.au/government/media-statements/Cook-Labor-Government/Cost-of-living-relief-payments-for-more-than-5,000-WA-families-20231214

the more you fuck up your life, the more they will give you.  where you don't want to be is have a little money, enough to dequalify for help, but not enough to live well.  So it's gamble time.  DYOR, not financial advice, natch.

[Onsamui]

Interview: You Need Two Years Worth Of Food | Armstrong Economics  Armstrong explained, “I think the US could default on its debt as early as 2025, but probably in 2027.  We have kicked the can down the road as far as we can go.  It’s not just in the United States.  Europe is in the same boat.  So is Japan.  This is why they need war.  They think by going into war, that’s the excuse to default on the debt.  They simply will not pay China.  If they try to sell their debt–good luck.  We are not redeeming it. 

[Funn3r]

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Also how commercial banks work.

97% of currency comes from commercial banking under instruction from the central bank to lend it into specified areas. 

[Axeman123]

I think the US actually refusing to pay China would be an act of war, and might debatably even count as a first use of a WMD provoking a response in kind. More likely both sides will skirt the issue by China winding down its holdings over a decade or more in a process almost like QT, buying fewer each year and at a lower value than that of the existing bonds maturing), while the US pretends not to notice and ocassionally implores them to buy a few more. Eventually the rump holdings would be so devalued by inflation anyway that any final sanction against them would have no more impact than the ones against Russian FX reserves did, and hence provoke only strong diplomatic complaints.

The real fun would come if the US were ever forced to issue bonds in a currency it could not print, the classice EM dilema, which I predict we will live to see. The obvious potential flashpoint of a nuclear armed state potentially being forced to hard default would likely limit appetite for such inherrently destabilising bonds to a tiny % of GDP, such that any default could fall on USD denominated ones instead via inflation.

[Mandalorian]

On 10/05/2024 at 13:28, feed said:

There are more than few people here that have quite a lot of money that run old cars, with non oem parts and 3rd party servicing.  In fact the average age of a car on the UK road today is 8.4  years.  

This generates no revenue for the original manufacturer.  If people get priced out, who cares, they weren't generating profit anyway and there be some people that have to move over, even if it's lower end or infrequent.  

There is definitely a drive towards non-ownership of the vehicle, longer term lease or short term rideshare.  All part of the same cars as a service model. Contractual.  Sell software/licensing.  Servicing, renewal and replacement and even insurance can all sit inside the control of the manufacturer.  Same reason for removing the dealerships.   Passenger vehicles drive a lot of revenue, very little of it currently goes to the original manufacturer.   

You don't buy a car. You buy a transportation package.  Terrible words, but you the get the picture.  EV's facilitate the move this model.  You can do it with ICE, but people are used to the ownership model and you need to kill the secondary/tertiary markets, much easier to do with a tech change.   So tell them it's for the good of mankind or something..   

 

 

You will own nothing and be happy.

[Mandalorian]

On 10/05/2024 at 17:55, Cattle Prod said:

Or in other words, houses are an excellent inflation hedge. They shouldn't do any more than that, as well, they don't do anything. No productivity, growth, innovation, just a long store of building materials and a piece of land which if well maintaned keep their value against fiat currency devaluation. That chart in one exposes the property as some kind of cant lose business as bollocks. 

The biggest risk with property is that it is an illiquid asset that you can't move out of the country, and therefore is subject to rapacious taxation. Council tax never reduces or gets paid off. 

I was talking to a South African in Zimbabwe last year.  He said they [the Saffers who have money] don't worry about inalftion and protect against it by buying houses.  Same in SA.

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

I was talking to a South African in Zimbabwe last year.  He said they [the Saffers who have money] don't worry about inalftion and protect against it by buying houses.  Same in SA.

And land.