Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Plan-b]

12 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They’ll still be shareholders in the merged entity, no?

I don't know what the eventual company structure will be, but I guess they would. For at least one company I know of this is being viewed as a negative 'merger'. In the past and if they had a choice they would rather avoid Vod and work with Three, in fact to this day Three is their major customer for good reason they are good to do business with, will have to wait and see how the presence of Vod effects business for them.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I don't know what the eventual company structure will be, but I guess they would. For at least one company I know of this is being viewed as a negative 'merger'. In the past and if they had a choice they would rather avoid Vod and work with Three, in fact to this day Three is their major customer for good reason they are good to do business with, will have to wait and see how the presence of Vod effects business for them.

VOD get the chance to buy the rest of the equity after 3 to 5 years i think.I think the UK is good for investors living here to buy inflation type stocks,but not outsiders,because for what they gain they lose on the currency loss.Its the funny thing with inflation,sometimes your better off inside the shit country with the inflation than outside.Key of course is can the telcos put up prices faster than sterling loses its value.If they can great to own for anyone inside the inflation economy.Its a bit like Turkcell protected Turks during the inflation.Of course if you cannot increase prices with inflation then your stuffed.Very tricky to navigate the next several years.

[Onsamui]

3 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Interesting article ,another political party about to be born ? 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/dominic-cummings-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-corruption/

Absolutely agree with that. I read a well researched book called The crossing by Wensley Clarkson.  Since first investigating organised crime more than 30 years ago, Clarkson has witnessed enormous changes in the UK underworld. For The Crossing, he has entered the brand-new Brexit influenced criminal badlands and witnessed up close the audacious, sophisticated and far-reaching foreign gangs who threaten to paralyse post-Brexit Britain by introducing the world to a new breed of organised crime.

Edited May 10 by Onsamui

[Plan-b]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

VOD get the chance to buy the rest of the equity after 3 to 5 years i think.I think the UK is good for investors living here to buy inflation type stocks,but not outsiders,because for what they gain they lose on the currency loss.Its the funny thing with inflation,sometimes your better off inside the shit country with the inflation than outside.Key of course is can the telcos put up prices faster than sterling loses its value.If they can great to own for anyone inside the inflation economy.Its a bit like Turkcell protected Turks during the inflation.Of course if you cannot increase prices with inflation then your stuffed.Very tricky to navigate the next several years.

Cheers DB thats a very interesting take. I wasn't taking the view you describe into consideration. The reason for that is I can't think the way you do and I don't actually know anyone who can.

I will add the comment regarding Hutchison eventually wanting to leave the UK is insider info from people talking together from within these companies.

It will probably take many years for Hutchison to divest itself of their UK interests this is likely just the start, will have to wait and see on that one.

It's a shame if they do, they are known as a good company with one of the best networks over many years in the UK. 

Edited May 10 by Plan-b

[Shamone]

Does anyone here use Ex-US global index funds? 

[DurhamBorn]

Time to even out my Eurovision book now for all green big profits.Croatia odds on and Israel 4.5s now,i love taking money off the woke  

 

[onlyme]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

£6k where did you get that number from ,it`s a genuine question as that sounds incredibly cheap 

Then i`m more than a tad sceptical regarding that video ,i`m not saying China are using huge amounts of automation as they clearly are ,they installed more industrial robots last year than the rest of the world combined there are more than a few reasons for that though 

  But that video looks off as it has high end robots feeding what looks like 1960`s manual/mechanically automated machine tools, there's some very clever integration going on there if it is legitimate 

Certainly more than just the purchase cost of the machines, the way the integration of AI/robotics is looking a lot of that integration cost will be gone - lead by example programming plus the articulation - if that can be successfully done with minimal additional hardware then that is a gamechanger - means small pool of robots could be switched between tasks / machines / processes / different products.

[Cattle Prod]

On 06/05/2024 at 12:38, feed said:

UK house prices have done nothing but slowly ground down since covid.  I lost my longer term data, but quick look at recent figures and 10 years of nowhere, RPI adjusted. 

Without a credit event, they're not going to do much else.  2007 will be our real term peak, for a very long time.  

Or in other words, houses are an excellent inflation hedge. They shouldn't do any more than that, as well, they don't do anything. No productivity, growth, innovation, just a long store of building materials and a piece of land which if well maintaned keep their value against fiat currency devaluation. That chart in one exposes the property as some kind of cant lose business as bollocks. 

The biggest risk with property is that it is an illiquid asset that you can't move out of the country, and therefore is subject to rapacious taxation. Council tax never reduces or gets paid off. 

[sancho panza]

anotehr 'no sh1t sherlock' basmenet thesis goes mainstrweam

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/people-flee-country-rather-pay-080000108.html

People will flee the country rather than pay any more tax

This week the economists at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the UK’s dire fiscal situation means that, with high levels of debt and no scope to cut public spending, after the election taxes will have to rise regardless of who wins – or alternatively, that Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal rules will have to be abandoned.

Total government revenues from taxes and other sources are currently scheduled to reach 41pc of GDP this year. That compares with 37pc as recently as in 2019-2020 and 32pc if we go back to the mid-1990s.

The last time government revenues were above 41pc was 1969-70, for just one year. The last time they were above 41pc for several years in a row was in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

Could taxes be raised materially higher even than is currently scheduled?

I suspect not. In fact, I suspect even Hunt’s plans won’t be deliverable.

A key reason taxes have not been maintained at these sorts of levels for several years in a row since the late 1940s/early 1950s, let alone being raised even above that, is that the UK economy is not capable of generating that much revenue.

And it won’t be capable of generating it any time soon, either.

But in the UK, because such a high share of our economy involves highly-globally-mobile capital and labour, the issue is more acute than elsewhere.

In our current situation, rather than further tax rises increasing the tax share of GDP closer to the levels normal in our continental rivals, it is more likely that the attempt to raise taxes fails because first, it induces recession, making the tax take fall; second, it causes capital flight, reducing the tax base; and third, it leads to the emigration of high-income and high-wealth individuals, again reducing the tax base.

[Lightscribe]

What a pair of silly old cunts.

Typical euphemism of the country.

Two ridiculous decrepit boomers who have benefited from the results of cheap oil/energy throughout their lives, using tools that’s created by said energy/oil and which has provided them with their lifestyle, pension and NHS prescriptions that’s enabled the silly old fuckers to stay alive sitting there today. 

Now they want to pull up the drawbridge on the younger generation. Selfish twats.

[Plan-b]

51 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

anotehr 'no sh1t sherlock' basmenet thesis goes mainstrweam

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/people-flee-country-rather-pay-080000108.html

People will flee the country rather than pay any more tax

This week the economists at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the UK’s dire fiscal situation means that, with high levels of debt and no scope to cut public spending, after the election taxes will have to rise regardless of who wins – or alternatively, that Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal rules will have to be abandoned.

Total government revenues from taxes and other sources are currently scheduled to reach 41pc of GDP this year. That compares with 37pc as recently as in 2019-2020 and 32pc if we go back to the mid-1990s.

The last time government revenues were above 41pc was 1969-70, for just one year. The last time they were above 41pc for several years in a row was in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

Could taxes be raised materially higher even than is currently scheduled?

I suspect not. In fact, I suspect even Hunt’s plans won’t be deliverable.

A key reason taxes have not been maintained at these sorts of levels for several years in a row since the late 1940s/early 1950s, let alone being raised even above that, is that the UK economy is not capable of generating that much revenue.

And it won’t be capable of generating it any time soon, either.

But in the UK, because such a high share of our economy involves highly-globally-mobile capital and labour, the issue is more acute than elsewhere.

In our current situation, rather than further tax rises increasing the tax share of GDP closer to the levels normal in our continental rivals, it is more likely that the attempt to raise taxes fails because first, it induces recession, making the tax take fall; second, it causes capital flight, reducing the tax base; and third, it leads to the emigration of high-income and high-wealth individuals, again reducing the tax base.

It's already happening, higher tax will just be another nail in the UK coffin. Highly skilled well paid professionals are already leaving, can't get doctors and dentist appointments, get your kids into a local preferred school? no chance try your fifth choice if your lucky, gimiegrants get first choice. Add housing pressure's and feeling like a foreigner in your own country where you pay 50%+ tax/ni as a high earner. Job losses are beginning to mount up and redundancies are happening.  Bradford, Birmingham? nope West London/M4 corridor.

[Don Coglione]

6 hours ago, feed said:

There are more than few people here that have quite a lot of money that run old cars, with non oem parts and 3rd party servicing.  In fact the average age of a car on the UK road today is 8.4  years.  

This generates no revenue for the original manufacturer.  If people get priced out, who cares, they weren't generating profit anyway and there be some people that have to move over, even if it's lower end or infrequent.  

There is definitely a drive towards non-ownership of the vehicle, longer term lease or short term rideshare.  All part of the same cars as a service model. Contractual.  Sell software/licensing.  Servicing, renewal and replacement and even insurance can all sit inside the control of the manufacturer.  Same reason for removing the dealerships.   Passenger vehicles drive a lot of revenue, very little of it currently goes to the original manufacturer.   

You don't buy a car. You buy a transportation package.  Terrible words, but you the get the picture.  EV's facilitate the move this model.  You can do it with ICE, but people are used to the ownership model and you need to kill the secondary/tertiary markets, much easier to do with a tech change.   So tell them it's for the good of mankind or something..   

 

 

Are you Jac Nasser?

[feed]

4 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Are you Jac Nasser?

no, could have done with his pay off though.  

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

It's already happening, higher tax will just be another nail in the UK coffin. Highly skilled well paid professionals are already leaving, can't get doctors and dentist appointments, get your kids into a local preferred school? no chance try your fifth choice if your lucky, gimiegrants get first choice. Add housing pressure's and feeling like a foreigner in your own country where you pay 50%+ tax/ni as a high earner. Job losses are beginning to mount up and redundancies are happening.  Bradford, Birmingham? nope West London/M4 corridor.

See a very high chance of a Brexit backlash if we do rejoin ny the backdoor under a labour govt as this will be a signal that any hope of righting the UK ship will be gone and the first hitting the exit may well be ironically those who voted for Brexit, on the basis there is no country left worth fighting for.

Edited May 10 by onlyme

[Joncrete Cungle]

Institutional money starting to move into the miners?

[Alex]

19 minutes ago, onlyme said:

See a very high chance of a Brexit backlash if we do rejoin ny the backdoor under a labour govt as this will be a signal that any hope of righting the UK ship will be gone and the first hitting the exit may well be ironically those who voted for Brexit, on the basis there is no country left worth fighting for.

Many of us left long ago for reasons including that one. The writing has been on the wall for decades.

[Bear Hug]

30 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Institutional money starting to move into the miners?

Impressively muted market reaction to the news. 

[Long time lurking]

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, onlyme said:

See a very high chance of a Brexit backlash if we do rejoin ny the backdoor under a labour govt as this will be a signal that any hope of righting the UK ship will be gone and the first hitting the exit may well be ironically those who voted for Brexit, on the basis there is no country left worth fighting for.

You could argue have we even left 

[Errol]

5 hours ago, Shamone said:

Does anyone here use Ex-US global index funds? 

I've been trying to find a global ex-US etf that is available in the UK.

[Bien Pensant]

.

Edited May 11 by Bien Pensant

[Bien Pensant]

On 08/05/2024 at 20:10, Long time lurking said:

 

Holy shit, they could at least pretend:

Edited May 11 by Bien Pensant

[Bien Pensant]

On 08/05/2024 at 20:39, Errol said:

Such drivel. Is this the best they can manage? It's just pathetic. They make me sick.

They don't have to offer decent alternatives, just make sure that theirs are the only ones available.

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Impressively muted market reaction to the news. 

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I looked at sibyane this week, but the south african location worries me.  A lot.  SA is close to russia, and if the US wants to make an example of a BRICS, SA is incredibly easy to destabilise AND US relies on it for nothing, really.  Wagner groups have been in SA training people for some time, annoying the US on top.

I could also see nationalisation of mines in SA being a thing in a world in which gold is worth 5k and ounce.  Why wouldn't the thieving SA politicians give in to that temptation?

There's a strong whiff of "deglobalisation for thee, but not for me" goes on here, on this thread.

We'd been talking about deglobalisation for at least a year - maybe two - when POLY happened, and yet it still seemed like a big shock to some.

If deglobalisation is indeed a thing, it's definitely coming for us minnows of retail investing.