Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Harley]

3 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

What is the last asset you sell when you are skint?

The Harley, just after the Les Paul!  

[Jesus Wept]

52 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Nope never go short.

Unlike going long - your losses are unlimited until you close the position. 

It has cost me in the past. 

This is interesting - sums up my views - produced a few weeks after I positioned myself.

- gold / silver

- miners

- energy

- cash 

As a hedge - not too much initially - as a crash will take “everything” all down on margin calls and recession  - then go in heavy as the market prints again after the crash. 

US can’t default and can’t payback what they owe.

They will eventually print. 

 

 

48 minutes ago, nirvana said:

pussy.......

Rickards has been calling collapse for at least 10 years........I think he's one of those 'gold bug-gers'

Not for me.

Mind Burry should have waited until I made my call…. he called it far too early. 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Those schemes popping up are interesting,its starting.One of the best things ever for me was drinking late teens early 20s with the old fellas in the workmans club.Great laugh and taught me more than i would ever learn in school,could be great for both parties.Like you say inheritors who do very little for older family members but expect the inheritance might start to worry.

I was going to do charity work to help lonely older folk but there were cases where the family really came for you (eg. claimed you stole money) when their parent thought more highly of you and worse, told them!

Willing all your stuff to a live in carer was apparently a thing back in the day.  We've created an annex for a live in carer and would put them on a buy in based on the more they get the longer we lived!  

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

just after the Les Paul

Have you seen the prices on the new USA custom shop guitars? , enough to make your guitar gently weep.

Custom Shop - Guitar Village

 

Edited April 17 by Bobthebuilder

[janch]

Interesting hydropower stats:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-far-worlds-largest-hydro-power

also:

When looking at hydropower’s share of total electricity production for each of these countries, then Norway comes first with a high 87.5 percent of its electricity energy mix having been accounted for by hydropower in 2022. Only Paraguay comes higher in terms of share of total electricity production, at 99.7 percent.

and:

As this chart shows, India was the sixth biggest hydropower worldwide in 2022 with approximately 175 TWh of hydropower generated that year, which accounted for 9.4 percent of the country’s electricity production.

but:

fossil fuels accounted for more than three quarters (77 percent) of India’s electricity production in 2022.

This was mostly from coal (74 percent), followed by gas (2.7 percent).

 

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Have you seen the prices on the new USA custom shop guitars? , enough to make your guitar gently weep.

Custom Shop - Guitar Village

 

Bugger, could have bought the bigger quad bike! 

.....slap, but this is DOSBODS! 

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, janch said:

Interesting hydropower stats:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-far-worlds-largest-hydro-power

also:

When looking at hydropower’s share of total electricity production for each of these countries, then Norway comes first with a high 87.5 percent of its electricity energy mix having been accounted for by hydropower in 2022. Only Paraguay comes higher in terms of share of total electricity production, at 99.7 percent.

and:

As this chart shows, India was the sixth biggest hydropower worldwide in 2022 with approximately 175 TWh of hydropower generated that year, which accounted for 9.4 percent of the country’s electricity production.

but:

fossil fuels accounted for more than three quarters (77 percent) of India’s electricity production in 2022.

This was mostly from coal (74 percent), followed by gas (2.7 percent).

 

I'm liking my Norsk Hydro and my Norsk Hydro is liking me!  

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Harley]

Never understood expending all that energy trying to predict the big picture stuff.  I simply buy when the price is likely to go up and sell when it's likely to go down, trimming the runts before they hurt. 

It looks easy but like such things, it took a lot of time and effort.  Nevertheless, some folk say you can't time things.  I'll have a shiny new quad bike in the yard next week that begs to differ!

Now what shall I call it?  Maybe Francis (as in the traitor Francis Walsingham), who Queen Elizabeth I said in the film she would keep alive and close by to remind her of the danger she faces! 

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Festival said:

 Couldn’t agree more with this. I run two portfolios one is overweight UK stocks (baccy, commodities, telcos gold etc) and the other for Mrs F is broadly invested in global equities low cost trackers. She is beating me comfortably over last 5-7 years. Both have protected capital to a greater or lesser extent compared to 60/40  over the same period, but low cost accumulating funds in US, Jap, even EU has won hands down total return wise to this point. Maybe the cycle will turn now decisively towards commodities in a second wave of inflation and I’ll keep some weighting for this but I won’t be the house on any outcome and I expect many won’t either unless they are either quite new to the investment game or have little to lose and much to gain. 

I find it quite fascinating looking at such portfolio constructions using JustETF.

For example, I was assessing various versions of the Permanent Portfolio (PP) the other day and noted a higher reward:risk ratio for every time period with gold (per the PP) rather than using a broad commodity ETF.

That suggests a danger in (apparent) over diversification and that commodities may be a better trade than very long hold.

I'm currently assessing how to get the best ratio on the equity tranche by looking at:

. One global ETF; or

. A global developed and a global emerging market ETF in various proportions; or

. A series of regional ETFs

Back to the commodity ETFs, significant variations in the performance of the various ETFs as they are all based on not only variations in the mix of their constituents but also in their contract durations (roll, long, front, etc).

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Jesus Wept]

The Stockmarket loves low inflation, high profit and steady growth (not too high or low).

We now have persistent ‘spiky’ inflation, profit margins are being squeezed and growth looks very shaky. We have zombie companies with massive debts and limited earnings. 

The Mag 7 are the last to go down and are going to be the final signal - “the pin that pops the whole market”. 

S&P has had a 70%  better return than the global stock market for the last 10-12 years. That’s unprecedented.

Mag7 are monopolies - and that’s coming to an end globally.

The mania has come out in the last 3 years - meme stocks, bitcoin, shorting the hedge funds, everyone ‘investing’ and making millions, housing markets. The “everything bubble”.

Only thing that hasn’t properly risen in the last few year is the emerging markets? Strange? 

Global bust on the cards - long recession / depression coming. Heralded by the stock market collapse.

 

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[GoneDark]

40 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

The Stockmarket loves low inflation, high profit and steady growth (not too high or low).

We now have persistent ‘spiky’ inflation, profit margins are being squeezed and growth looks very shaky. We have zombie companies with massive debts and limited earnings. 

The Mag 7 are the last to go down and are going to be the final signal - “the pin that pops the whole market”. 

S&P has had a 70%  better return than the global stock market for the last 10-12 years. That’s unprecedented.

Mag7 are monopolies - and that’s coming to an end globally.

The mania has come out in the last 3 years - meme stocks, bitcoin, shorting the hedge funds, everyone ‘investing’ and making millions, housing markets. The “everything bubble”.

Only thing that hasn’t properly risen in the last few year is the emerging markets? Strange? 

Global bust on the cards - long recession / depression coming. Heralded by the stock market collapse.

 

 

And what's all of that going to do to all of that cash you will be holding?

Edited April 17 by GoneDark
Added of

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

BAT is a growth company.

 

It's got a funny way of showing it....

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

Not for me.

Mind Burry should have waited until I made my call…. he called it far too early. 

Come on..  Own up.  Which one of you gloomy, Chicken Little, cellar dwellers is Michael Burry?

[Jay]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

The Stockmarket loves low inflation, high profit and steady growth (not too high or low).

We now have persistent ‘spiky’ inflation, profit margins are being squeezed and growth looks very shaky. We have zombie companies with massive debts and limited earnings. 

The Mag 7 are the last to go down and are going to be the final signal - “the pin that pops the whole market”. 

S&P has had a 70%  better return than the global stock market for the last 10-12 years. That’s unprecedented.

Mag7 are monopolies - and that’s coming to an end globally.

The mania has come out in the last 3 years - meme stocks, bitcoin, shorting the hedge funds, everyone ‘investing’ and making millions, housing markets. The “everything bubble”.

Only thing that hasn’t properly risen in the last few year is the emerging markets? Strange? 

Global bust on the cards - long recession / depression coming. Heralded by the stock market collapse.

 

 

Growth and relative low inflation in U.S..strong dollar is reason why em are flying..mag7 monopoly ain’t ending that soon..

fiscal policy is the problem in the us..still believe that the U.S. markets rises another 10%-20%.. then a slow decline of around 30% with a chance of that in a bk..

so even if that scenario plays out, then we end up at oct 23..

the fly in the ointment is a slow multi decade fall in markets as America is no longer great..imo that is unlikely at least for another decade..

so as that mad orange says just regular drip save into an index fund..

sitting in cash waiting for blood on the streets is how Buffett made billions..so your potential strategy does work…slowly..

[Bobthebuilder]

19 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Chicken Little

That's not a great one to use, as chicken little turned out to be correct in the end, and save the town from aliens.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

The Stockmarket loves low inflation, high profit and steady growth (not too high or low).

We now have persistent ‘spiky’ inflation, profit margins are being squeezed and growth looks very shaky. We have zombie companies with massive debts and limited earnings. 

The Mag 7 are the last to go down and are going to be the final signal - “the pin that pops the whole market”. 

S&P has had a 70%  better return than the global stock market for the last 10-12 years. That’s unprecedented.

Mag7 are monopolies - and that’s coming to an end globally.

The mania has come out in the last 3 years - meme stocks, bitcoin, shorting the hedge funds, everyone ‘investing’ and making millions, housing markets. The “everything bubble”.

Only thing that hasn’t properly risen in the last few year is the emerging markets? Strange? 

Global bust on the cards - long recession / depression coming. Heralded by the stock market collapse.

 

 

Maybe the EMs are waiting for the "Year of the Tortoise"?

[CannonFodder]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Maybe the EMs are waiting for the "Year of the Tortoise"?

2024 has a different more militaristic tortoise.

[Plan-b]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Bugger, could have bought the bigger quad bike! 

.....slap, but this is DOSBODS! 

 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Come on..  Own up.  Which one of you gloomy, Chicken Little, cellar dwellers is Michael Burry?

You’re right it’s up from here, blue skies abound. 

I can only see the US going alone in a ESG utopia and stonks to the moon whilst the rest of the G7 implodes through monetary collapses.

 

Edited April 17 by Lightscribe

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

It's got a funny way of showing it....

 

[leonardratso]

That young guy shouldnt smoke at his age.

Unless its a bats fag.

Edited April 17 by leonardratso

[Bien Pensant]

22 hours ago, wherebee said:

Been that way for a long time; it's designed to let the authorities get criminals on tax evasion charges, which have long jail times PLUS big financial fines, without all the trouble of a criminal trial about who sold what to whom.

Tax trial: you had 2 million dollars in the Banks and a house worth 5 million, and didn't work.  What was it from?  "er....."

Nice, you owe us 20 million and 12 years in jail.  NEXT!

Certainly has always been the case in the UK - 'trade is trade, no moral test', https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim22008

Is the story that the IRS has put a separate box for it on the form now, or something?

Edited April 17 by Bien Pensant

[Jesus Wept]

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

That’s a bloke. 

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

That’s a bloke. 

he shure got a purdy mouth tho.