Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[ThoughtCriminal]

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Look on the bright side, things could be a lot worse:

It's less than a million new long term sick

It's not a double figure £tn unfunded black hole

There are still some births

It could be more than 1m imported and under* 200k working

4.2% unemployment is low historically

GDP is positive

* Phew.... I nearly put 'less than' there and might have got pedanted.

I'm making you DOSBODS morale officer 

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'm making you DOSBODS morale officer 

Cheers, looking forward to how much budget you allocate to me.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Bear Creek down 12% and I STILL can't buy any 😤😂

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Cheers, looking forward to how much budget you allocate to me.

After consulting with the lads we've got 27 Ferrari pizza ovens for you to sell now everyone's low carb. 

[leonardratso]

DS smith accepted IP's offer, values it at about 415p a share apparently, hmm poor do, maybe someone else will bid, ive put mine in at 86pence for the whole lot, but i dont want them taffs wot work there, they can all go back down the mine.

[JMD]

Russel Napier's 21 lessons from financial history... (It's in summary form but still very good)

@DurhamBorn, Napier makes an interesting short comment at approx. 55mins where he says that international capitol that was going to China is instead now being re-routed into other EMs. Your probably already aware of this, but would be interested in your thoughts as sounds very significant.

 

 

Edited April 16 by JMD

[Jesus Wept]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Russel Napier's 21 lessons from financial history... (It's in summary form but still very good)

@DurhamBorn, Napier makes an interesting short comment at approx. 55mins where he says that international capitol that was going to China is instead now being re-routed into other EMs. Your probably already aware of this, but would be interested in your thoughts as sounds very significant.

 

 

Brazil Perchance ? 🤔 

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

After consulting with the lads we've got 27 Ferrari pizza ovens for you to sell now everyone's low carb. 

I tried to warn people about frivolously spending their brass on a one trick kitchen appliance that will end up gathering dust.

 

[CannonFodder]

Clown world continues.

Yanks seem to be ahead of HMT in preparing for the new normal.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/irs-asks-americans-report-income-illegal-activities-1871446

 

[leonardratso]

wonder whats going on in the american coalers, they seem to have bucked todays trend for some reason, anyone know?

also was mentioned above ages back peabody (BTU) and arch, i always found warrior met coal to be more dynamic and give better returns.

 

Edited April 16 by leonardratso

[Mandalorian]

On 12/04/2024 at 11:21, Mandalorian said:

Something is definitely going on.

Just opened the spreadsheet and it auto-updates prices for me.

I have a cell that calculates the total daily change in value.

I've made more since going to bed last night than I will earn in the first 6 months of this year.  (Mostly tax free too!)

EVERYTHING is up.  Including the metals.

Unsustainable?  Who knows?

I'm just going to keep on keeping on.

For balance.

Since going to bed, I have lost more than I will earn in the first 6 months of the year. 

(Nope.  Genuinely not bothered.  It all stays invested all the time.)

[Mandalorian]

9 hours ago, Royston said:

I thought the fabled "BK" is supposed to be a stock market collapse and subsequent economic depression on a par with 1929?

Didn't it take stocks over 20 years to recover back to their post 1929 levels? 

How long are you planning on living?

I want to know what this 'BK' specifically looks like.  Before the event.

I don't want people crowing about it and claiming they were right should the market drop by 5% in a week.

[Mandalorian]

7 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

It's also worth considering the inflation that takes place when waiting for the BK to arrive.
I was buying BT during the 2020 Covid lows at £1 per share.
Inflation adjusted (CPI) that is now the equivalent of £1.22 per share.
I can buy BT today at £1.05 per share.
Back up the truck?!
 

Nah.  Just shows what a crap investment BT has been.

[TNS]

1 minute ago, Mandalorian said:

Nah.  Just shows what a crap investment BT has been.

Not as shit as Vodafone though 

[Mandalorian]

2 minutes ago, TNS said:

Not as shit as Vodafone though 

[Jesus Wept]

11 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

I want to know what this 'BK' specifically looks like.  Before the event.

I don't want people crowing about it and claiming they were right should the market drop by 5% in a week.

I am happy with my 80% holding on cash. 

The 20% is just a hedge. Taking a little hit today on the gold and silver commodity hedges.

Will hopefully get the opportunity to ladder down in the coming months / year.

Any recommendations on any global equity funds with minimal China exposure and low charges covering broad sectors?  @Mandalorian

Edited April 16 by Jesus Wept

[Lightscribe]

Loss of faith from there

[Mandalorian]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

I am happy with my 80% holding on cash. 

The 20% is just a hedge. Taking a little hit today on the gold and silver commodity hedges.

Will hopefully get the opportunity to ladder down in the coming months / year.

Any recommendations on any global funds with minimal China exposure and low charges?  @Mandalorian

I don't recommend anything.  I just say what I do.

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

I don't recommend anything.  I just say what I do.

Are you recommending we do the same ?

[Democorruptcy]

For cross reference on 8th April I posted

Quote

The CME Fed Tool has a May hold 525/550 at 94.5%, now a hold in June has gone slight favourite for the first time at 51.2%. That was only 26.6% a month ago.

Today 525/550 Hold is May at 99.5%, June 80.6% and July now gone favourite at 55.6%

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

[Lightscribe]

Looks like JP Morgan doesn’t like not being in control.

[Long time lurking]

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

I don't recommend anything.  I just say what I do.

You don’t recommend dividends can we least get you to recommend that? 

[PETR4]

On 14/04/2024 at 18:54, Chewing Grass said:

The chess set is stunning, came from Nigeria in 1947

@Chewing Grass PM me if you want some assistance with provenance for this. As you may of seen in my sea / ocean post I'm keen on good quality provenance  You only get fined if you file false documents.

I am going to Nigeria again in June and can do some research whilst there. The British Museum might take a look at it. I know the Natural History museum look at stuff free of charge as they helped me assay a meteorite I have.

Ivory chess sets with provenance can be worth a fair bit:

https://www.bonhams.com/auction/19094/lot/2033/a-carved-ivory-chess-set-with-board-20th-century/

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, PETR4 said:

@Chewing Grass PM me if you want some assistance with provenance for this. As you may of seen in my sea / ocean post I'm keen on good quality provenance  You only get fined if you file false documents.

I am going to Nigeria again in June and can do some research whilst there. The British Museum might take a look at it. I know the Natural History museum look at stuff free of charge as they helped me assay a meteorite I have.

Ivory chess sets with provenance can be worth a fair bit:

https://www.bonhams.com/auction/19094/lot/2033/a-carved-ivory-chess-set-with-board-20th-century/

 

I shall dig it out, assemble and photograph it, not done this since I was a kid.