Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Some of the techs are warning to be cautious.  I'd explain but.....!

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Gold going mental again.

Surely ya mean silver!

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

I'm interested to know whether you think Britannias or gold mining shares are the better buy at this moment in time?

I was surprised to see a drop on the oil & gold shares today with the weekends events in the middle east.

Gold mining shares to grow capital with the risk you lose capital,gold to keep spending power over the long term.The market will always shake out weak hands before its off to the races again.Gold miners i find should only be owned around 3 years every 10.

[Harley]

So £22,070 income per annum tax free in 2024/25, plus all the tax free stuff like some NS&I, gilts gains, Britannias, ISA withdrawals, some benefits, rent a room (to £7,500), and VCTs and the like?......

£12,570 Personal allowance (e.g. pension)

£500 Dividend allowance

£5,000 Starting rate for savings (reduced pro rata if you "earn" more than your personal allowance)

£3,000 CGT allowance (could just be a (e.g. money market) accumulation fund?)

The Starting rate for savings includes:

. Bank and building society accounts

. Savings and credit union accounts

. Unit trusts (>60% rule)

. Investment trusts (>60% rule)

. Open-ended investment companies (>60% rule)

. Peer-to-peer lending

. Trust funds

. Payment protection insurance (PPI)

. Government or company bonds

. Life annuity payments (the declared capital element is free of tax)

. Some life insurance contracts

60% rule is fund must have over 60% market value in cash or bonds

Correct?  Anything else?

Edited April 15 by Harley

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

60% gold  / 40% silver

in miners we trust

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Imagine going to the bank for 3 grand and they refuse to give you it unless you show them an invoice for your purchase to prove what you're doing with the cash.

He did well to keep calm. I'd have pulled her over the fucking desk.

This is what worries me about sitting with cash in the bank, it's only yours until they decide it isn't.

 

 

that's also wrong - she's got it 100% wrong.  He could have said 'I'm going to spend it on a huge butt plug this weekend' and she'd have to accept it.

Told you on here before I've trained the wife to say 'because we think the bank is going to collapse' when asked when she'd taking out large amounts of cash.  Always gets they to hurry up, the louder she is.

[Lightscribe]

In October of last year (when the stand out gold miners like Harmony and Eldorado were at their lowest then started to run) Tavi was one of the few economists calling for it.

Even the Dosbodderati had little faith that gold would defy UST correlation and that it would only go up on interest rate cuts. Stagflation, which is what I’ve always been banging on about was the true game changer.

Some get it.

Edited April 16 by Lightscribe

[Alex]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

that's also wrong - she's got it 100% wrong.  He could have said 'I'm going to spend it on a huge butt plug this weekend' and she'd have to accept it.

Told you on here before I've trained the wife to say 'because we think the bank is going to collapse' when asked when she'd taking out large amounts of cash.  Always gets they to hurry up, the louder she is.

More people should read their banks T&Cs before handing over money to them. Banks don't hold "your" money for you. You become a creditor of the bank when you deposit funds. Much weaker position.

[Onsamui]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

that's also wrong - she's got it 100% wrong.  He could have said 'I'm going to spend it on a huge butt plug this weekend' and she'd have to accept it.

Told you on here before I've trained the wife to say 'because we think the bank is going to collapse' when asked when she'd taking out large amounts of cash.  Always gets they to hurry up, the louder she is.

OH has just done another investment and the form filling is getting ridiculous and the questions byond personal.  He was really screaming at the computer! 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

In October of last year (when the stand out gold miners like Harmony and Eldorado were at their lowest then started to run) Tavi was one of the few economists calling for it.

Even the Dosbodderati had little faith that gold would defy UST correlation and that it would only go up on interest rate cuts. Stagflation, which is what I’ve always been banging on about was the true game changer.

Some get it.

Before this cycle started i expected PE multiples to likely come down to the 6 to 9 levels and then your returns would mostly be from the dividend plus maybe half the inflation feeding through to shareholders.You would get the odd bubble here and there,but that would be the likely prices of most companies.Funny enough most of the EM stocks i own and most of the UK stocks are on those low PEs.Buying high PE companies or an index of high PE companies will likely prove a disaster.The bond capital hit inflation adjusted was stage one,high rated equity likely next.I think many stocks will outperform gold,but likely not by much and the miners,though terrible investments most of the time should leverage enough to protect people.In the UK i housing should really be the area taking the most pain,but for now government funded rents for bennies and immigrants are holding them up.

[crashmonitor]

UK Wage growth unexpectedly comes in at 6.0% for February, 5.8% was expected. Totally incompatible with 2% Core.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-regular-wages-grow-60-3-months-february-2024-04-16/

[CannonFodder]

This is worse imho

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

59 minutes ago, Alex said:

More people should read their banks T&Cs before handing over money to them. Banks don't hold "your" money for you. You become a creditor of the bank when you deposit funds. Much weaker position.

Even when presented with the evidence they still wouldn't believe you.

[Royston]

22 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

If the actual BK comes along soon ( and many people suspect it will ) then I'll fill my boots again.

 

I thought the fabled "BK" is supposed to be a stock market collapse and subsequent economic depression on a par with 1929?

Didn't it take stocks over 20 years to recover back to their post 1929 levels? 

How long are you planning on living?

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

So £22,070 income per annum tax free in 2024/25, plus all the tax free stuff like some NS&I, gilts gains, Britannias, ISA withdrawals, some benefits, rent a room (to £7,500), and VCTs and the like?......

£12,570 Personal allowance (e.g. pension)

£500 Dividend allowance

£5,000 Starting rate for savings (reduced pro rata if you "earn" more than your personal allowance)

£3,000 CGT allowance (could just be a (e.g. money market) accumulation fund?)

The Starting rate for savings includes:

. Bank and building society accounts

. Savings and credit union accounts

. Unit trusts (>60% rule)

. Investment trusts (>60% rule)

. Open-ended investment companies (>60% rule)

. Peer-to-peer lending

. Trust funds

. Payment protection insurance (PPI)

. Government or company bonds

. Life annuity payments (the declared capital element is free of tax)

. Some life insurance contracts

60% rule is fund must have over 60% market value in cash or bonds

Correct?  Anything else?

The fucking shit we have to do just to stop the government stealing our money to give to spastics on benefits and third world stabby rapist savages.

[Lightscribe]

Hat tip to @kibuc

Disclosure- I went in at 5p 

If gold is in a bull run and at ATHs you can be sure there’s an incentive by all parties to get back to mining 

Edited April 16 by Lightscribe

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The fucking shit we have to do just to stop the government stealing our money to give to spastics on benefits and third world stabby rapist savages.

I spend much of my freetime looking for cheap Silver cutlery to protect myself from the Government, it's utter madness.

[ThoughtCriminal]

So Israel have said they are definitely going to strike Iran, and Iran have said if they do they'll definitely retaliate on a massive scale, and this time with no warning.

Gold and oil to the moon? Anything else in this scenario?

[Pip321]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

In October of last year (when the stand out gold miners like Harmony and Eldorado were at their lowest then started to run) Tavi was one of the few economists calling for it.

Even the Dosbodderati had little faith that gold would defy UST correlation and that it would only go up on interest rate cuts. Stagflation, which is what I’ve always been banging on about was the true game changer.

Some get it.

I’m confused with all this gold talk….

As I understand it the US has printed something like 80% of all dollars in existence in the last 4 years or so, so that means there are more dollars.

Now I imagine in order to do this they must have mined an extra 80% of gold over the same period into existence in order to support this money being printed. I mean money is backed by gold…surely?

I know Nixon temporarily removed the gold standard in 1971 but that was just temporary right?

It’s a mad world….money backed with nothing. Not long now and everyone will be millionaires  

It would be really interesting to look at the true quantity of fiat floating around verses the quantity of real things (be it gold, cars, clothes, wheat, labour, cocoa beans etc etc). That may start to show the true level of potential ‘inflation’ or rather ‘devaluation of currency’.

Interesting times….and every royal headline, political farce or wokey annoying topic I see in the news I see as just something trying to distract me from what is really going on.

[Lightscribe]

5 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Interesting times….and every royal headline, political farce or wokey annoying topic I see in the news I see as just something trying to distract me from what is really going on.

More accurately these last 4 years have been absolutely excruciating for critical thinkers.

[HousePriceMania]

57 minutes ago, Royston said:

I thought the fabled "BK" is supposed to be a stock market collapse and subsequent economic depression on a par with 1929?

Didn't it take stocks over 20 years to recover back to their post 1929 levels? 

How long are you planning on living?

Not including dividends, recovered much quicker.

If you think buying shares at the bottom of the 1929 stock market crash was bad, imagine buying them the month before the crash.

[Sasquatch]

29 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I spend much of my freetime looking for cheap Silver cutlery to protect myself from the Government, it's utter madness.

I now have a vision of @M S E Refugee storming parliament armed with a Georgian marrow scoop and a pair of sugar nips.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.mining.com/mexicos-supreme-court-could-strike-down-presidents-mining-reforms-next-week/

Possible blow for the Mexican government? Bullish for FRES? We shall see.

[Pip321]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not including dividends, recovered much quicker.

If you think buying shares at the bottom of the 1929 stock market crash was bad, imagine buying them the month before the crash.

That’s the point.

Ignoring what will happen and the ‘time in and timing markets’ etc (all relevant) but once/if the BK happens then the game changes.

So (assuming BK arrives) at the lower values the stock market offers something else…it may not rise for 20 years and indeed it may fall further but it offers (depending on sectors, companies etc) a ability buy into assets to hold/store wealth at a cheaper value.

So BP @£2 or BT @40p or BAT @£10, Rio @ £30 etc etc. The dial has turned and as long as you pick well and spread a little you are buying assets….whether ‘assets’ then crumble further is another matter but you are relatively wealthier than your old self  who nearly bought 2 months earlier because now you bought 2 for 1.

Its really then about buying shares as an asset rather than an investment 

Of course in a true crash incomes alter, cash flows matter, dividends change etc etc but it’s more then about having improved you position as best you can….because if you don’t buy at the bottom (near bottom) you possibly never will.

But like the Guinness advert….waiting for the BK requires patience and missing out in lots of decent waves in the meantime. So playing in the water first is good too😉

Edited April 16 by Pip321

[Lightscribe]

11 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

I now have a vision of @M S E Refugee storming parliament armed with a Georgian marrow scoop and a pair of sugar nips.

I’ll be sitting there watching, drinking the MPs subsidised wine at the commons bar in my silver goblet in candlelight whilst eating cucumber sandwiches from my platter.

[HousePriceMania]

13 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

That’s the point.

Ignoring what will happen and the ‘time in and timing markets’ etc (all relevant) but once/if the BK happens then the game changes.

So (assuming BK arrives) at the lower values the stock market offers something else…it may not rise for 20 years and indeed it may fall further but it offers (depending on sectors, companies etc) a ability buy into assets to hold/store wealth at a cheaper value.

So BP @£2 or BT @40p or BAT @£10, Rio @ £30 etc etc. The dial has turned and as long as you pick well and spread a little you are buying assets….whether ‘assets’ then crumble further is another matter but you are relatively wealthier than your old self  who nearly bought 2 months earlier because now you bought 2 for 1.

Its really then about buying shares as an asset rather than an investment 

Of course in a true crash incomes alter, cash flows matter, dividends change etc etc but it’s more then about having improved you position as best you can….because if you don’t buy at the bottom (near bottom) you possibly never will.

But like the Guinness advert….waiting for the BK requires patience and missing out in lots of decent waves in the meantime. So playing in the water first is good too😉

If you bought at the peak and got dividends, then the recovery took much much longer.

That's the point.

You buy at the wrong time, you lose.  If your circumstances change and you need to liquidate at the wrong time, you **** yourself.