Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Long time lurking]

[Long time lurking]

15 hours ago, ONC said:

yes i agree. Cannot help but think that America has been seriously outplayed. Will history look back and see,

1.  China de-industrialising USA by artificial cheap exchange rates. Allow western companies to make vast profits by moving manufacturing to China. Now China is the factory of the world.

2. China’s rapid acquisition of skills and knowledge. Legally eg lots and lots of students going to USA/UK, and illegally via espionage.

3. Fentanyl.  Deliberately driving drug addiction ( eg British opium trade)

4.  Driving illegal migration.  Would not be surprised if lots of pro-immigration NGO, political parties etc funded by China/russia. 

5.  Woke nonsense. Weaken America by years of woke nonsense. (They must be pissing themselves laughing).

6 Debt. Lend USA/Uk  vast amount of money. 

7. Displace USA/EU as the major trading partner of most of the world (Africa, South America etc).

8.  Deliberately drive expensive wars (Ukraine, Israel, etc) to drain USA finances.

9. Final move, drive de-dollarisation and ramp up purchases of GOLD? Show the world the Emperor has no cloths? 

Just saw post by Luke Gromen, saying is USA heading the way of Britain in 1950s, a huge empire collapsing with debt , and then facing a Suez moment?? Followed by decades of inflation??
 

I remember back in ~2000 when people said that only the low-end jobs would go to China, the high-end jobs would stay in USA/UK/EU.  It is really amazing what China has achieved in 25years. They have played a clever game. 
 

The west have done all of that to themselves ,China simply met them half way ,as for fentanyl that`s bollocks ,the precursors might come from there but it`s the countries that import them are the ones that should be regulating the imports not the exporter 

But yes the US empire is in it`s dying days

Edited April 22 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

15 hours ago, ONC said:

I remember back in ~2000 when people said that only the low-end jobs would go to China, the high-end jobs would stay in USA/UK/EU.  It is really amazing what China has achieved in 25years. They have played a clever game. 

That was nothing more than a psyop based purely on projection ,the pysop was directed towards us 

Eleven years and counting to build 200 miles of train lines from London to Birmingham 

We are still in the stone age whilst China are in the Iron age 

 

[Chewing Grass]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/21/ukrainian-soldiers-trained-uk-free-cigarettes-mod-deal/

 

Sums up the complete hypocrisy of everything.

[ThoughtCriminal]

It's so over lol

 

[janch]

Commercial real estate in US:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commercial-real-estate-foreclosures-soar-levels-not-seen-nearly-decade

....CRE foreclosures topped 625 in March, up 6% from February and 117% from the same period last year.

More at the link

[No One]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It's so over lol

 

Its sad but I agree

[janch]

Lyn Alden's latest newsletter:

https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/

 

[BurntBread]

27 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Sums up the complete hypocrisy of everything.

I see it more positively, as reality breaking through the hypocrisy, at least in small ways.

There is an old "standard operating procedure" for preparing 100g of hydrogen cyanide in a fume cupboard. It includes a safety precaution which is still acknowledged to be a good idea, if ever you were to do that preparation today. What you should do, is during the procedure, make sure you chain-smoke. If there is even a tiny leak of HCN, it will change the taste of the tobacco before it reaches a dangerous level, and you can show a clean pair of heels in good time.

Soldiers need a few moments of anxiolytic recuperation more than any concern they might have about getting heart disease 30 years later (which is likely 29-and-a-half years after they are dead anyway). If UKgov had denied them cigarettes because of ESG-isms, I would be far more concerned about the sanity of our leaders (and I wouldn't trust them even now to stand at the correct end of a loaded gun).

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It's so over lol

 

I read something about that but it was specifically those coming here registering for work, rather than those coming for any reason, so only a subset of the whole number. 

[JMD]

On 19/04/2024 at 16:20, DurhamBorn said:

ABRDN own 10% of Phoenix ,the reason i wont buy them direct is gilts,they own huge numbers in their back book and im not sure how that will play out.They are probably a decent buy,but i prefer others.I have never looked at Henderson really.I think ABRDN are very very cheap.Biggest IFA platform in the UK (50% market share),2nd biggest retail platform in II,£500mill stake in Phoenix,£700mill surplus in the pension scheme,hundreds of millions in seed capital.If/when EMs start a bull cycle they should be able to reverse AUM falls.The other for EMs i like is NinetyOne plc.The bull case for them is more and more EM wealth funds give them mandates.The whole sector has suffered huge headwinds,but if things can start to improve there could be big upside.I like those  risk/reward set ups,many wont like the risk.

Thanks DB.  In regard to the asset manager EM/pivot-leverage thesis, I have also been looking at the European asset managers. I already own some of the German Allianz because it has strategic plans to partner with South African Sanlam (previously discussed favourably on here but direct access to SA stocks is difficult) on various future African joint ventures. This is their latest one...

https://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/financials/stakes_investments/230905_Allianz-SanlamAllianz-to-provide-insurance-and-financial-services.html

 

DB, I know this is not a stock picking thread, and tbf am not asking in regard to buying advise. However I  am interested in the French Axa and Amundi - and I was wondering if you had looked into these companies previously and maybe had a view on their EM exposure, or even their bond risk (I assume European bonds carry similar risk to gilts)?

Although i'm able to gauge the fundamentals of a company - i do admit I wouldn't have a clue as to how to quantify EM exposure or bond risk. (Amundi is Europe's largest asset manager with $2trn AUM and has been on a buying spree; both companies have high debt but also have large cash balances).       ...Obviously no pressure but any info. would be very appreciated.

 

 

Edited April 22 by JMD

[JMD]

9 hours ago, BurntBread said:

One upvote is not enough: they have played their hand very very well.

I think the "opioid wars" is particularly poignant for the Chinese, and also something they will not want to draw attention to until long after.

For the Groman tweet, it's an even closer analogy, I think. "By passing the bill, Johnson became an unlikely Churchill". Well, Churchill didn't lose the empire in 1955, he lost it by choosing to enter an unnecessary and cripplingly expensive war in 1939. Johnson may well be Chruchill, but without the literary capability to write the history books and paint himself as the hero.

Is there much evidence that China is behind the US opioid crises?

Regarding Churchill, Peter Hitchens refers to the 'Churchill myth' - though of course Hitchens is a very unsentimental person! - however I do agree with him that Churchill entered into the WWII too early and without first extracting anywhere near good terms from the US. Ie agreeing crippling Lend Lease, not getting assurances over our Asian colonial interests, etc. 

Edited April 22 by JMD

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s simply hard assets rather than buying foreign debt or holding anything in FX reserves 

It`s greatest weakness was always a naval blockade which is now almost impossible to achieve but it is/was  what the BRI is all about as well as investing it`s surpluses into hard assets ,a large part of the Russian conflict is about the BRI ,China and Russia have already agreed on visa free travel in the border region in the east of Russia ,this will be the northern branch  of the BRI to supply northeastern Europe ,the line to  southern Europe and west Asia will follow the old silk road, Kazakhstan Afghanistan play major parts in that 

 

What's all this talk of so-last-century Turkey-Iraq 'highways' or China-Europa 'roadways'?   ...Surely the future is Elon's - US style Vainglorious!! - Hyperloop(y ...and very silly) tech?!

Edited April 22 by JMD

[JMD]

20 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Imagine if the only thing between us and armagedon is Winnie the Pooh and his 50yr economic plans that were drawn up on the basis of no war.

I'll take any way out of course, but...it makes you think. Hopefully Xi's next step is to prevent "fortification" of the US election, without getting polititcal we could all use some mean tweets and no new wars about now

I agree.

Given the recent diabolical US geopolitics, i actually find that picture image very moving and quiet inspirational...   In fact I think I might get some T-shirts printed!!   

(btw, am not being sarcastic)

Question - in order to p***-off the woke libtard types, what should the slogan/caption be on the Trump/Kim Jong Un t-shirt? 

Edited April 22 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

What's all this talk of so-last-century Turkey-Iraq 'highways' or China-Europa 'roadways'?   ...Surely the future is Elon's - US style Vainglorious!! - Hyperloop(y ...and very silly) tech?!

Well Chinas tested it`s first 10km test section of it`s proposed hyper loop the train achieved just shy of 1000kph 

I doubt you will see that going through the middle east or Russia any time in the near future though 

[leonardratso]

bros before hoes, bro.

or maybe trump is showing kim how to grab em by the pussy.

Edited April 22 by leonardratso

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree.

Given the recent diabolical US geopolitics, i actually find that picture image very moving and quiet inspirational...   In fact I think I might get some T-shirts printed!!   

(btw, am not being sarcastic)

So question - in order to p***-off the woke libtards, what should the slogan/caption be on the Trump/Kim Jong Un t-shirt? 

"Do you have a time machine ,i need to go back to give Joe`s dad a condom "

[ashestoashes]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree.

Given the recent diabolical US geopolitics, i actually find that picture image very moving and quiet inspirational...   In fact I think I might get some T-shirts printed!!   

(btw, am not being sarcastic)

Question - in order to p***-off the woke libtard types, what should the slogan/caption be on the Trump/Kim Jong Un t-shirt? 

nuclear bombs make strong borders

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

That was nothing more than a psyop based purely on projection ,the pysop was directed towards us 

Eleven years and counting to build 200 miles of train lines from London to Birmingham 

We are still in the stone age whilst China are in the Iron age 

 

AMAZING eh...AND only cost those canning chinks a measly $3B!

meanwhile back at UK WOKE central ya forgot to mention those USELESS C**** have squandered £66.3 Billion in those jackshit 11 years !

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I read something about that but it was specifically those coming here registering for work, rather than those coming for any reason, so only a subset of the whole number. 

even 1 more paki arriving here is 1 too MANY!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Thanks DB.  In regard to the asset manager EM/pivot-leverage thesis, I have also been looking at the European asset managers. I already own some of the German Allianz because it has strategic plans to partner with South African Sanlam (previously discussed favourably on here but direct access to SA stocks is difficult) on various future African joint ventures. This is their latest one...

https://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/financials/stakes_investments/230905_Allianz-SanlamAllianz-to-provide-insurance-and-financial-services.html

 

DB, I know this is not a stock picking thread, and tbf am not asking in regard to buying advise. However I  am interested in the French Axa and Amundi - and I was wondering if you had looked into these companies previously and maybe had a view on their EM exposure, or even their bond risk (I assume European bonds carry similar risk to gilts)?

Although i'm able to gauge the fundamentals of a company - i do admit I wouldn't have a clue as to how to quantify EM exposure or bond risk. (Amundi is Europe's largest asset manager with $2trn AUM and has been on a buying spree; both companies have high debt but also have large cash balances).       ...Obviously no pressure but any info. would be very appreciated.

 

 

Very few Europe based stocks i even look at outside of oil ,telcos and chemicals.I wouldnt touch anything thats holds bonds directly for themselves,we are in financial repression and bonds are ground zero.

[leonardratso]

21 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

even 1 more paki arriving here is 1 too MANY!

[Errol]

 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Is there much evidence that China is behind the US opioid crises?

AIUI undisputed fact that fentanyl and since the chinks cracked down slightly chemicals to readily synthesise it are freely sold online from China.

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Question - in order to p***-off the woke libtard types, what should the slogan/caption be on the Trump/Kim Jong Un t-shirt? 

"ALL I AM SAYING IS  GIVE PEACE A CHANCE"

[M S E Refugee]

^FTSE - FTSE 100

FTSE Index -

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At close: 04:35PM BST

 

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

^FTSE - FTSE 100

FTSE Index -

8,023.87

+128.02 (+1.62%)

At close: 04:35PM BST

 

Why, is it replacing last weeks huge losses, who had shorts on in Wall St...