Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Maybe.

It feels like what Gandalf described as "the deep breath before the plunge" in LOTR. Russia and China are making preparations and the US is flailing around.

That's my hope, that they are taking away as many strategic resources as they can, so the retards in the West can't prosecute a War.

Edited April 21 by M S E Refugee

[ashestoashes]

30 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

War? 

 

if fusion power is closer than we think then there's going to be a lot of copper required

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

That's my hope, that they are taking away as many strategic resources as they can, so the retards in the West can't prosecute a War.

I don't think that would stop them at all - A: it wouldn't be them dying B: it would reduce the population

[M S E Refugee]

14 minutes ago, Loki said:

I don't think that would stop them at all - A: it wouldn't be them dying B: it would reduce the population

Probably not, but the Elites will outlast their usefulness to the Chinese at some point.

It does seem like all Western politicians are completely powerless to stop whatever is about to happen.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

That's my hope, that they are taking away as many strategic resources as they can, so the retards in the West can't prosecute a War.

Imagine if the only thing between us and armagedon is Winnie the Pooh and his 50yr economic plans that were drawn up on the basis of no war.

I'll take any way out of course, but...it makes you think. Hopefully Xi's next step is to prevent "fortification" of the US election, without getting polititcal we could all use some mean tweets and no new wars about now

[Loki]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Probably not, but the Elites will outlast their usefulness to the Chinese at some point.

It does seem like all Western politicians are completely powerless to stop whatever is about to happen.

Agreed.  I think they'd love nothing more than to tell us to walk slowly towards the machine guns. Again.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

War? 

 

Expecting the price of commods in $$$$$s to rocket.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Expecting the price of commods in $$$$$s to rocket.

Excellent, I acquired another load of used lead to add to my collection of heavy metals.

Mercury is a twat to get hold of these days but so much fun in the liquid metal stakes.

[CannonFodder]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

That's my hope, that they are taking away as many strategic resources as they can, so the retards in the West can't prosecute a War.

It may be, they are just storing their wealth in commods.

Why save dollars in USTs, just buy copper nickel etc and store it

Edited April 21 by CannonFodder

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

It may be, they are just storing their wealth in commods.

Why save dollars in USTs, just buy copper nickel etc and store it

Its certainly what I would do if I were them.

[leonardratso]

LME will store it for you.

Or Nymex.

Well, they'll store some stones of the equivalent weight, which they will gladly send if you so require.

They arent stones though, its the ore version of the metal you want, or so im told.

[ONC]

14 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

The funds confiscated will have already been spent or pledged against arms and aid. The great irony is that during the 1980s Ronald Reagan's Star Wars program forced the Russians to spend resources they did not have countering a supposed threat that never existed. The Star Wars capability was never what the architects had envisioned. Russia was bankrupted and the system fell.

Today the US tried to play the same trick. Initiate a war with Russia via proxies by provocation per Victoria Nuland and Maidan Square. The game plan was promise the Ukrainians the world and military support, sanction Russia, exile them from international financial plumbing, freeze their assets, compel all allies to follow suit ergo the Rouble collapses, Putin is discredited and American hegemony is reestablished following the embarrassments of Syria and Afghanistan. Hey presto Pax Americana is restored and a neat little ancillary benefit is US LNG replaces Russian gas in Europe and Germany, a major exporter of goods to the US, is forced to deindustrialise, win-win.

The reality however is that Russia is incredibly resilient because of the sanctions post 2014 and has established new supply lines and agreements internationally via BRICS. Furthermore, Russia has a competitive cost advantage when it comes to military hardware and a greater reserve of brave young men to be sacrificed on the international political chess board. Thus America is now being dragged further towards the cliff edge with every additional $Billion sent to Ukraine. They have been hoisted by their own petard. Russia learned from the 1980s whereas the Americans did not. They might as well fire the missiles at themselves!

yes i agree. Cannot help but think that America has been seriously outplayed. Will history look back and see,

1.  China de-industrialising USA by artificial cheap exchange rates. Allow western companies to make vast profits by moving manufacturing to China. Now China is the factory of the world.

2. China’s rapid acquisition of skills and knowledge. Legally eg lots and lots of students going to USA/UK, and illegally via espionage.

3. Fentanyl.  Deliberately driving drug addiction ( eg British opium trade)

4.  Driving illegal migration.  Would not be surprised if lots of pro-immigration NGO, political parties etc funded by China/russia. 

5.  Woke nonsense. Weaken America by years of woke nonsense. (They must be pissing themselves laughing).

6 Debt. Lend USA/Uk  vast amount of money. 

7. Displace USA/EU as the major trading partner of most of the world (Africa, South America etc).

8.  Deliberately drive expensive wars (Ukraine, Israel, etc) to drain USA finances.

9. Final move, drive de-dollarisation and ramp up purchases of GOLD? Show the world the Emperor has no cloths? 

Just saw post by Luke Gromen, saying is USA heading the way of Britain in 1950s, a huge empire collapsing with debt , and then facing a Suez moment?? Followed by decades of inflation??
 

I remember back in ~2000 when people said that only the low-end jobs would go to China, the high-end jobs would stay in USA/UK/EU.  It is really amazing what China has achieved in 25years. They have played a clever game. 
 

[CannonFodder]

46 minutes ago, ONC said:

yes i agree. Cannot help but think that America has been seriously outplayed. Will history look back and see,

1.  China de-industrialising USA by artificial cheap exchange rates. Allow western companies to make vast profits by moving manufacturing to China. Now China is the factory of the world.

2. China’s rapid acquisition of skills and knowledge. Legally eg lots and lots of students going to USA/UK, and illegally via espionage.

3. Fentanyl.  Deliberately driving drug addiction ( eg British opium trade)

4.  Driving illegal migration.  Would not be surprised if lots of pro-immigration NGO, political parties etc funded by China/russia. 

5.  Woke nonsense. Weaken America by years of woke nonsense. (They must be pissing themselves laughing).

6 Debt. Lend USA/Uk  vast amount of money. 

7. Displace USA/EU as the major trading partner of most of the world (Africa, South America etc).

8.  Deliberately drive expensive wars (Ukraine, Israel, etc) to drain USA finances.

9. Final move, drive de-dollarisation and ramp up purchases of GOLD? Show the world the Emperor has no cloths? 

Just saw post by Luke Gromen, saying is USA heading the way of Britain in 1950s, a huge empire collapsing with debt , and then facing a Suez moment?? Followed by decades of inflation??
 

I remember back in ~2000 when people said that only the low-end jobs would go to China, the high-end jobs would stay in USA/UK/EU.  It is really amazing what China has achieved in 25years. They have played a clever game. 
 

Whoever is doing it, is using the playbook

It started a long time ago. Apologies if this has been posted before but explains the approach.

 

 

[WICAO]

On 20/04/2024 at 16:23, BurntBread said:

I don't think that is true really. For example @Frank Hovis, @WICAO, @Harley and @nirvana all have approaches to investing that differ radically from the main thread ideas (and two of them have views quite similar to yours, I believ). They are all regular(ish) and welcome contributors, and nobody else kicks up a fuss about being presented with contrary views.

I'm not saying you aren't welcome, but I think what I don't so much appreciate, is someone trying to take over the thread with lots and lots of posts, most of which are loudly telling other people what to do, rather than just talking about what the poster, himself, does.

Stuey was a bit like that when he joined the thread, telling everybody that it was much better to bet on football results, rather than this stock market malarkey. However, he did settle down once he had basked for a while in the attention he wanted.

I went with my plan after realising I was both a rubbish investor and trader.  I tried both. 

My wider financial plan that went much further than just investing/trading, but which switched to using the "market return" as one of the variables, has so far worked for me.  Of course I could still be wrong or very wrong.

I think my wider financial plan also suffered from the quote - "life is what happens when you're busy making plans" - but in a good way so far.  When I started out in 2007 never in my wildest dreams did I think I'd be in the position I'm in today nor heading in the direction I currently am.  Life is very good...

[BurntBread]

8 hours ago, ONC said:

yes i agree. Cannot help but think that America has been seriously outplayed. Will history look back and see,

1.  China de-industrialising USA by artificial cheap exchange rates. Allow western companies to make vast profits by moving manufacturing to China. Now China is the factory of the world.

2. China’s rapid acquisition of skills and knowledge. Legally eg lots and lots of students going to USA/UK, and illegally via espionage.

3. Fentanyl.  Deliberately driving drug addiction ( eg British opium trade)

4.  Driving illegal migration.  Would not be surprised if lots of pro-immigration NGO, political parties etc funded by China/russia. 

5.  Woke nonsense. Weaken America by years of woke nonsense. (They must be pissing themselves laughing).

6 Debt. Lend USA/Uk  vast amount of money. 

7. Displace USA/EU as the major trading partner of most of the world (Africa, South America etc).

8.  Deliberately drive expensive wars (Ukraine, Israel, etc) to drain USA finances.

9. Final move, drive de-dollarisation and ramp up purchases of GOLD? Show the world the Emperor has no cloths? 

Just saw post by Luke Gromen, saying is USA heading the way of Britain in 1950s, a huge empire collapsing with debt , and then facing a Suez moment?? Followed by decades of inflation??
 

I remember back in ~2000 when people said that only the low-end jobs would go to China, the high-end jobs would stay in USA/UK/EU.  It is really amazing what China has achieved in 25years. They have played a clever game. 
 

One upvote is not enough: they have played their hand very very well.

I think the "opioid wars" is particularly poignant for the Chinese, and also something they will not want to draw attention to until long after.

For the Groman tweet, it's an even closer analogy, I think. "By passing the bill, Johnson became an unlikely Churchill". Well, Churchill didn't lose the empire in 1955, he lost it by choosing to enter an unnecessary and cripplingly expensive war in 1939. Johnson may well be Chruchill, but without the literary capability to write the history books and paint himself as the hero.

[M S E Refugee]

There's currently a $4 arbitrage between Shanghai and the Western markets in Silver.

The Shanghai fix has been updated and the arbitrage is down to $3.

Edited April 22 by M S E Refugee

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's currently a $4 arbitrage between Shanghai and the Western markets in Silver.

The Shanghai fix has been updated and the arbitrage is down to $3.

Then they will demand delivery right? ,and we will see the true price.Could be a long way off,but its coming.

[Harley]

I do like listening to Tim Price, although some times I think he should buy dinner (or at least lunch)!

The usual stuff (the fundamental macro weakness and what to do) but a good top up for Monday!

https://yewtu.be/watch?v=nZERxyykUns

Edited April 22 by Harley

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Then they will demand delivery right? ,and we will see the true price.Could be a long way off,but its coming.

They certainly do seem to want to corner the market in commodities.

Europe and the UK are in dire straits with regard to commodities, there's plenty in the ground in North America,South America,Africa and Russia and what the Chinese don't have they just buy.

[Plan-b]

A few paragraphs from the latest article at Surplus Energy Economics.

The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan

Beyond a general scepticism about the promises made by political leaders, we need to recognise that some national economies are in very, very big trouble.

The devil, though, is in the detail. Whilst the world’s average person may be “only” 7% poorer by 2030, his or her cost of essentials is projected to rise by 14% in real terms over that period. This means that per capita PXE – Prosperity eXcluding Essentials – will fall by 17% in the coming seven years, and will have more than halved (-54%) by 2040.

Having started my career as an oil and gas analyst, it was never much of a stretch to work out that the economy itself is an energy system – there was probably no point at which I wasn’t fully aware of this.

Contrary to widespread assumption, renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, cannot take us back to low ECoEs enjoyed in the heyday of carbon fuels. The material characteristics of renewables make this impossible, and technology – again contrary to widespread supposition – can’t repeal the laws of thermodynamics in order to make it possible.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/04/22/276-the-worthington-factor/

Edit: One of the contributors added a link to old gas works which I found very interesting. http://www.disused-stations.org.uk/s/shipston_on-stour/index100.shtml

Edited April 22 by Plan-b

[Plan-b]

.

Edited April 22 by Plan-b

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Only just got off a pretty busy national express bus from LHR to cotswolds, only to tune into the markets this morning to find national express ...COLLASPING!

DOWN today near on 10% at one point!

ffs whats going on?

They have some new blood at the BOD, in my eyes these useles C***s should take a short bus ride off a long cliff! 

Shares were up 30 per cent over January after the Cosmen family, the powerful Spanish transport dynasty and Mobico's largest shareholder. The Cosmen family now holds its largest stake in the group in almost two decades, and this is the first time its holding has exceeded 20 per cent.

Surely a sitting duck/take over, a scavengers BARGIN...OR is it going BUST?

Do chime in other MCG holders here, @DurhamBorn does ya daughter have the MCG share holders depressed... FREE-Phone-HELPLINE, if so do post it... CHEERS!

 

Edited April 22 by Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
.

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Only just got off a pretty busy national express bus from LHR to cotswolds, only to tune into the markets this morning to find national express ...COLLASPING!

DOWN today near on 10% at one point!

ffs whats going on?

They have some new blood at the BOD, in my eyes these useles C***s should take a short bus ride off a long cliff! 

Shares were up 30 per cent over January after the Cosmen family, the powerful Spanish transport dynasty and Mobico's largest shareholder. The Cosmen family now holds its largest stake in the group in almost two decades, and this is the first time its holding has exceeded 20 per cent.

Surely a sitting duck/take over, a scavengers BARGIN...OR is it going BUST?

Do chime in other MCG holders here, @DurhamBorn does ya daughter have the MCG share holders depressed... FREE-Phone-HELPLINE, if so do post it... CHEERS!

 

They need shot of the US school bus business and keep away from rail.I suspect the Cosmen family will be telling them just that.I was miffed to see Go Ahead and Stagecoach bought out from under me,even with a profit.The debt put me off National Express though.

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/21/ukrainian-soldiers-trained-uk-free-cigarettes-mod-deal/

 

[Long time lurking]

19 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

War? 

 

It`s simply hard assets rather than buying foreign debt or holding anything in FX reserves 

It`s greatest weakness was always a naval blockade which is now almost impossible to achieve but it is/was  what the BRI is all about as well as investing it`s surpluses into hard assets ,a large part of the Russian conflict is about the BRI ,China and Russia have already agreed on visa free travel in the border region in the east of Russia ,this will be the northern branch  of the BRI to supply northeastern Europe ,the line to  southern Europe and west Asia will follow the old silk road, Kazakhstan Afghanistan play major parts in that 

 

Edited April 22 by Long time lurking