Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Roger]

6 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Stock pickers get it wrong. It is extremely difficult to beat the market.

Great post. I just wanted to pick up on this point, if I may. My gut would tell me that for every winner in the market, there's a loser. So for those 50% that fail to beat the market, there'll be 50% who succeed (ignoring spreads for the house).

So when you say it's "extremely difficult" to beat the market, are you saying that it's difficult for us lay people because the dice are loaded against us? I.e. the winners are largely insiders/ knowledgeable trading with large sums and we tend to be on the other side?

[Cattle Prod]

On 17/04/2024 at 09:18, DoINeedOne said:

Random question for @Bobthebuilder or @Cattle Prod or anyone who knows as I can't find the post was the Guinness Global Energy Fund you where buying in 2020+ this one

Just building a list of funds to add to watchlist

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/w/ws-guinness-global-energy-class-i-accumulation

I don't know, Ive kept the same one since 4 years ago but it's prices at 1355p..

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know, Ive kept the same one since 4 years ago but it's prices at 1355p..

That's the class Y one.

Guinness Global Energy Fund (Class Y GBP) Accumulation Fund Price & Information (hl.co.uk)

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Not having a go at anyone but dosbods is like that sometimes. Someone who specifically disagrees with a main premise of a thread just can't keep away from that thread.

Imagine going into a football thread and posting all the time about how stupid grown men kicking a ball around, or a petrolheads thread and incessantly calling for cars to be banned because climate.

I wouldn't mind if the post/message was short and sweet...   Hmm, how about something like -

'The age of the DIVI* is over!!!!!!!!!'

*can be substituted for 'current thing', ie. CAR, 60/40, etc.

 

Edit: added more exclamations, as I believe the idea is to repeatedly megaphone the message until everyone feels nauseas?!

Edited April 19 by JMD

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, JMD said:

DB, I like the thesis that asset managers with EM focus, eg. Ashmore/91/Abrdn are a good cycle leverage play and i do own these.

Please could you comment on the below two companies, which Im sure have been discussed before, however I don't know if they provide relevant/good EM exposure? 

Phoenix Group.  I believe you did used to rate it - but mostly for its pension book if i recall correctly(?) - but that was also some time ago and was wondering what your current thoughts were?

Janus Henderson.  I note that since it's merger AUM have been falling (and it's management flailing!). However unsure whether it has a good EM focus?

 

ABRDN own 10% of Phoenix ,the reason i wont buy them direct is gilts,they own huge numbers in their back book and im not sure how that will play out.They are probably a decent buy,but i prefer others.I have never looked at Henderson really.I think ABRDN are very very cheap.Biggest IFA platform in the UK (50% market share),2nd biggest retail platform in II,£500mill stake in Phoenix,£700mill surplus in the pension scheme,hundreds of millions in seed capital.If/when EMs start a bull cycle they should be able to reverse AUM falls.The other for EMs i like is NinetyOne plc.The bull case for them is more and more EM wealth funds give them mandates.The whole sector has suffered huge headwinds,but if things can start to improve there could be big upside.I like those  risk/reward set ups,many wont like the risk.

[Cattle Prod]

On 17/04/2024 at 09:51, Democorruptcy said:

I was just wondering how True Contrarian was getting on with all his shorts, so looked for an update. Did we have his April 2nd? Unusually for him he was also negative PMs.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

I like him and have subscribed in the past, but like all anlaysts you have to cherry pick and make up your own mind. I realised that he relies too much on insider buying/selling, and COT reports. COT is leveraged paper vs commercial, and is to me massively reliant on recency bias and will miss all tail risks and black swans, so doesn't capture e.g. Chinese physical buying. I've emailed him twice to check my own biases. One was on the oil run post 2020, as he bailed out of that early, I didn't buy his reasoning. I, and most of us here stayed in. I also emailed him a few weeks ago to ask why he called gold a false breakout. I din't buy his answer and $350 later I'm still in. You have to be accountable to yourself, and only to yourself. 

He is also short c. 45% of his liquid net worth on QQQ and XLK, and long another 23% on long bonds. That is a lot in the wrong direction, but he a True Contrarian as he says and quite happy. He doesn't leverage, so he'll no doubt get his money back, but he no longer publishes his break even price. He's been bearish so long,  he might do well to get it back adding in opportunity cost,

Still great on market history, specific insider buying/selling opportunities, buying conviction during market crashes, laddering strategy. But he lacks macro IMO.

[Cattle Prod]

32 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

That's the class Y one.

Guinness Global Energy Fund (Class Y GBP) Accumulation Fund Price & Information (hl.co.uk)

 

Hmm I dont remember paying a 5% intial charge, wtf. I really should pay more attention

Edit: I didn't. HL seem to net it off. I get so bored with details

Edited April 19 by Cattle Prod

[Jesus Wept]

On 17/04/2024 at 09:51, Democorruptcy said:

I was just wondering how True Contrarian was getting on with all his shorts, so looked for an update. Did we have his April 2nd? Unusually for him he was also negative PMs.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

I like this fella.

Proper into holding cash waiting for the bubble to burst. 
 

[Democorruptcy]

56 minutes ago, Roger said:

Great post. I just wanted to pick up on this point, if I may. My gut would tell me that for every winner in the market, there's a loser. So for those 50% that fail to beat the market, there'll be 50% who succeed (ignoring spreads for the house).

So when you say it's "extremely difficult" to beat the market, are you saying that it's difficult for us lay people because the dice are loaded against us? I.e. the winners are largely insiders/ knowledgeable trading with large sums and we tend to be on the other side?

Stock pickers can't ignore their losing bets but the market can cast them aside, swapping them for winners. Like the FTSE 100 quarterly review, that relegates firms that have had a price fall that results in a lower market cap and replaces them with FTSE 250 firms that are doing well.

 

Quote

 

Promotion

For the FTSE 100, if a company not currently in the FTSE 100 is now in 90^th position or higher (in terms of total market value) they are promoted to the FTSE 100.

For the FTSE 250, if a company is now in the 325^th position or higher (in terms of total market value) they are promoted to the FTSE 250.

Relegation

For the FTSE 100, if a company is now in 111^th position or below (in terms of total market value) then it will wave goodbye and be demoted (usually down to the FTSE 250).

For the FTSE 250, if a company is now in 376^th position or below (in terms of total market value) then it will be dropped from the index.

Using the cut-off points as slightly above/below 100 for the FTSE 100 and slightly above/below 350 for the FTSE 250 reduces the number of continuous changes to the indexes as a company only gets promoted or relegated when it is clearly ready to be moved

https://everydayinvestor.co.uk/ftse-quarterly-review-stock-market-promotion-relegation/

 

 

 

 

[Funn3r]

I got an email from HL today moaning about my SIPP having too much cash, and nagging me to do something with it.

[goldbug9999]

14 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

I like this fella.

Proper into holding cash waiting for the bubble to burst. 
 

Meanwhile since the first of those articles another 1.5 trillion odd $ have been printed and are looking for a home.

Edited April 19 by goldbug9999

[Jesus Wept]

4 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I got an email from HL today moaning about my SIPP having too much cash, and nagging me to do something with it.

CSH2 or transfer to Trading 212 for 5.2% 

or one of the other money market funds? 
 

(random selection below) 

RLCTBY alleged to give 5.87% yield (nearly as good as BATs, ABDN or VOD 😜). 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by Jesus Wept

[Jesus Wept]

3 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Meanwhile since the first of those articles another 1.5 trillion odd $ have been printed and are looking for a home.

So are we saying it can’t end - and we are at the start of a crack up boom? 

Edited April 19 by Jesus Wept

[Jesus Wept]

5 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Meanwhile since the first of those articles another 1.5 trillion odd $ have been printed and are looking for a home.

That’s why I have 20% in Gold, Silver, Miners, Juniors, Sibanye and Oil and EMs.

Edited April 19 by Jesus Wept

[TNS]

5 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

CSH2 or transfer to Trading 212 for 5.2% 

or one of the other money market funds? 
 

(random selection below) 

RLCTBY alleged to give 5.87% yield (nearly as good as BATs, ABDN or VOD 😜). 

 

Where's the finger up emoji ? 

Edited April 19 by TNS

[Jesus Wept]

6 minutes ago, TNS said:

Where's the finger up emoji ? 

I’m not done fully resigned done on those stocks yet - I may comeback to them - I just feel my cash can be “safer “. and working more elsewhere - For a SHORT period of time.

@DurhamBorn got me into OPTIMiSM on the first day I looked at this thread 4 years ago. A large number of “his” picks did 100% - 600%. 
 

I combatted inflation way way before it took off with those shares. 

To be fair to @Mandalorian he’s also given me a lot of food for thought. Always listen to people. Everyone provides enlightenment. 

Edited April 19 by Jesus Wept

[leonardratso]

couldnt resist a quick £1 bet on ds smith @ -13%, even with mondi out of the way it should be good for > £4 with IP, unless IP pull out as well, the filthy catholics.

check out these well timed charts, perfect to the minute;

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

59 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Hmm I dont remember paying a 5% intial charge, wtf. I really should pay more attention

Edit: I didn't. HL seem to net it off. I get so bored with details

Cheers for getting fed up with my questions 4 years ago, you shouted at me one day "Just shut the fuck up man and buy Guinness", some of the best financial advise I have ever received.

[23rdian]

2 hours ago, Roger said:

Great post. I just wanted to pick up on this point, if I may. My gut would tell me that for every winner in the market, there's a loser. So for those 50% that fail to beat the market, there'll be 50% who succeed (ignoring spreads for the house).

So when you say it's "extremely difficult" to beat the market, are you saying that it's difficult for us lay people because the dice are loaded against us? I.e. the winners are largely insiders/ knowledgeable trading with large sums and we tend to be on the other side?

I'm starting to trade less now I think. I still like dividend stuff and indexes but omg I've bought some dogshit over the last few years. 

CLLN, JUP, HZM, POG, EVR etc

Not huge losses but it all starts to add up.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by 23rdian

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, montecristo said:

I would disagree.  Good to have a different point of view.  I would call my self financially illiterate.  I read a lot from Buffett and and his below statement always sticks in my mind.  I followed it and I buy EFT funds.  I look at my portfolio today and it is up 30% - 40%.  

“By periodically investing in an index fund, for example, the know-nothing investor can actually out-perform most investment professionals. Paradoxically, when ‘dumb’ money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb.”

Thought outside the groupthink and circlejerk isn't welcome here.  Not going to stop me giving my thoughts though,

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, Errol said:

People were saying this about gold decades ago.

The difference is that gold is never rubbish (or seemingly these days, cheap). 

As JP Morgan supposedly said:  "Gold is money.  Everything else is credit."

[Mandalorian]

3 hours ago, Roger said:

Great post. I just wanted to pick up on this point, if I may. My gut would tell me that for every winner in the market, there's a loser. So for those 50% that fail to beat the market, there'll be 50% who succeed (ignoring spreads for the house).

So when you say it's "extremely difficult" to beat the market, are you saying that it's difficult for us lay people because the dice are loaded against us? I.e. the winners are largely insiders/ knowledgeable trading with large sums and we tend to be on the other side?

Investing isn't a "zero sum" game though.  There isn't one loser for every winner.

It's difficult to beat the market consistently.  Everyone gets lucky.  Some get lucky for a few years in a row and then get some genius complex.  Until the market smacks them in the face.

 

The only consistent beat the market winner I am aware of is the Renaissance Technologies Medallion fund which is full of quants and uses MASSIVE computing power, ultra, ultra fast fibre optic cables and split second automated high frequency trading that's beyond the reach of the likes of the average punter.  or even most investment trusts.

They say it has an average annual return of around 66% before fees and 37% after since 1988.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies

No.  You can't join in.  Employees only.

[Plan-b]

Recent huge selling volume on the Mag 7 ETF, not a large fund in itself, more a show of poor sentiment for the popular tech stocks.

[Mandalorian]

23 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Recent huge selling volume on the Mag 7 ETF, not a large fund in itself, more a show of poor sentiment for the popular tech stocks.

🤷🏻‍♂️ shrug

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Recent huge selling volume on the Mag 7 ETF, not a large fund in itself, more a show of poor sentiment for the popular tech stocks.

All incredible companies,BUT at some point they will be valued at 10 free cash flow,all of them.So the question is only what will their max free cash turn out to be? Tesla has been cut in half already,but at todays price it needs to get to $50bill a year free cash flow,Nvidia needs to get to $200 billion free cash flow  ,Microsoft $300 billion etc etc.