Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[MrXxxx]

12 minutes ago, headrow said:

I couldn't find anything I wanted to buy at the current levels. So just stuck £20k in a cash ISA with Barclays. The £1k it earns in interest will pay my council tax for 6 months. Incredible that you need £40k invested to pay your council tax in 2024. Robbing cunts.

'Give with one hand'...and then take back [often twice as much] with the other! :-)

[ashestoashes]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

We did all of that years ago. Along with fewer. 

I've noticed that if we persist the pedants eventually give up with their auto corrects.  

They're not auto corrects though

[DurhamBorn]

ABRDN AUM inflows turned positive,just,but positive.Advisor net flows negative slightly,retirees drawing down pensions,but AUM higher than net flows.I expect that might turn once boomers die off as housing wealth inheritance flows to IFAs.II doing very well,HL mentioning the same,obvious those working are wanting out so trying to save more.II grew SIPP accounts by 25% in the last year (still low at 66k)

Loved this bit as well,the "industry" ie pension schemes/insurance etc moving away from EMs just as they enter a structural bull ,looking the wrong way at key inflection points,likely moving into fixed income  .Next for these EM leaning managers i want to see them winning EM mandates from EM investors,that will cement things.Im very heavy this hated sector now .

"It was a challenging quarter for equities with continued net outflows primarily reflecting industry asset allocation away from Asia and emerging markets."

 

Edited April 24 by DurhamBorn

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

ABRDN AUM inflows turned positive,just,but positive...............

i put my limit buy order in on monday at 135, for my last ladder, what an idiot i am as the low price since is 136,  sometimes it does NOT pay to be a tightWAD!

BTW, YESTERDAY added a DESPERATE 56p final ladder in national express...well what did ya expect today ...YEP MCG bloody well DOWN again!

[Long time lurking]

The CBDC pysop 

They`er scared very scared now,this comes a day after China and Russia officially stated they are looking to use a "stablecoin" for international payments 

 

Edited April 24 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

Who would've thunk it 

 

[HousePriceMania]

49 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

i put my limit buy order in on monday at 135, for my last ladder, what an idiot i am as the low price since is 136,  sometimes it does NOT pay to be a tightWAD!

BTW, YESTERDAY added a DESPERATE 56p final ladder in national express...well what did ya expect today ...YEP MCG bloody well DOWN again!

Don't panic, there's still time...

 

[sancho panza]

SO bascially private equity JAB Holdings paid £1.5bn for Pret in 2018.

Latest report I can easily find from july 23 states revenue in 2023 looks to be around £830mn.Profit for 2022 =£50mn

Debts at £700mn by year end 22.

wtf.

@Ash4781b if you around,you got any knowledge of this end of retial?are the rest in a similar boat?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pret-manger-brings-back-co-082036941.html

The London-based sandwich chain has brought back Larry Billett, Pret’s former Chairman from 2003 to 2011, alongside Sinclair Beecham who co-founded the business in 1983 with Julian Metcalfe. Billett will join the board as a non-executive director while Beecham will act as an adviser.

Meanwhile, Olivier Goudet, who has served as Pret’s chairman since 2018, will step down and be replaced by current board member Konrad Meyer.

Pret had racked up loans and borrowings of £698 million by the end of 2022, its latest accounts show, as pandemic closures led to steep losses at the firm.

Much of the debt has been agreed using 3-month SONIA rates set by the Bank of England, which has seen the interest rates on the debt rise to nearly 9%.

https://www.pret.co.uk/en-GB/pr-pret-financial-2023

H1 2023 sales reach £429.9m, up 20.2% vs H1 2022 (£357.8m)

2022 Full Accounts show return to profitability for the first time since 2018, reporting annual operating profit of £50.6 million for Full Year 2022

Edited April 24 by sancho panza

[Onsamui]

11 hours ago, Pip321 said:

On the face of it your offer seems low to asking price but that doesn’t mean your offer wasn’t fair. I have often viewed houses and thought the asking price is so high that effectively the seller isn’t really selling. So you did the right thing….at least you asked and you got your reply. 

Few mentions/examples already from other posters and when I was buying/selling I had many examples of daft asking prices and getting low offers accepted  

I had to keep the right side of the agents because (for me) no point upsetting the middle men when you might need them for the next deal but if you are buying your main home and doing it once then no harm upsetting anyone.

So my offers were ‘gently positioned’ maybe some discussions with the agent first….but they were low. And exactly like mentioned of the other examples they were often rebuffed but after 3/4 months they would return. And I was never ‘too principled’ to then say no…hey, if it was cheap I was in.

My best example was a flat on at £220k (around 2008) and by the time I viewed it, it was then a decent buy to comparables asking only £170k. But the market was shit…..no one was buying so I offered £150k and was rejected and I then later bought it for £122k at an auction…yummy. Thing is property isn’t liquid….and when sentiment truly goes then buying is a beauty to behold.

I tell this tale not to show off but give you hope….with property it’s about sentiment. You can buy right at the very bottom a year before the bottom arrives and indeed you can buy at below the bottom price because before it comes the despair for sellers and the anticipation that prices just won’t stop falling can create panic in motivated sellers. 

We see people over pay irrationally because they believe prices will continue up and they will miss out….the reverse happens too.

Good luck. 😉

 

Agree similar to us when buying a holiday home business in Porth, Newquay.  It was up for £145K, recession was on mid 90's, eventually got it for £75K.  However, we owned a  terrace in three flats in Newquay, we sold to buy in-laws hotel as they were struggling with it for many reason, sold it for £85k, in-laws got offered more for their hotel so they regnaged on the deal. Their hotel sale fell through but I refused to buy the place after that out of principle.  Shame as after they sold it the developers moved in, bought it cheap, knocked it down and it is now a block of flats, Horizons in Newquay. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 hours ago, headrow said:

I couldn't find anything I wanted to buy at the current levels. So just stuck £20k in a cash ISA with Barclays. The £1k it earns in interest will pay my council tax for 6 months. Incredible that you need £40k invested to pay your council tax in 2024. Robbing cunts.

As I have said before, that £40k is more than the average private sector defined contribution pot.

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/how-important-are-defined-contribution-pensions-financing-retirement

People hold – on average – considerably less wealth in DC pensions than in traditional DB pensions. The median (middle) value of DC pension pots among those aged 50–59 with a DC pension was £33,500 in 2018–20

[StrugglingMillennial]

4 hours ago, Cosmic said:

Buy t'other one? 

It's had an offer accepted but it hasn't gone through yet so I'm hoping the deal collapses 

[Pip321]

8 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

Agree similar to us when buying a holiday home business in Porth, Newquay.  It was up for £145K, recession was on mid 90's, eventually got it for £75K.  However, we owned a  terrace in three flats in Newquay, we sold to buy in-laws hotel as they were struggling with it for many reason, sold it for £85k, in-laws got offered more for their hotel so they regnaged on the deal. Their hotel sale fell through but I refused to buy the place after that out of principle.  Shame as after they sold it the developers moved in, bought it cheap, knocked it down and it is now a block of flats, Horizons in Newquay. 

I never let emotion take over. If someone renegades on a deal and came back to me...and there was money in it...I would continue.

However....your in laws...yep, fuck them I would have made an exception for that. I might have gone ahead but offered them literally fuck all instead of £85k 😂

[Onsamui]

1 minute ago, Pip321 said:

I never let emotion take over. If someone renegades on a deal and came back to me...and there was money in it...I would continue.

However....your in laws...yep, fuck them I would have made an exception for that. I might have gone ahead but offered them literally fuck all instead of £85k 😂

Family, they really f...k you up.  

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/cut-public-sector-pensions-pay-better-salary-lord-odonnell/

[Loki]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/cut-public-sector-pensions-pay-better-salary-lord-odonnell/

https://archive.is/DMAVo

[HousePriceMania]

 

[kibuc]

It's official - The Onion guys had a time machine.
 

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

As I have said before, that £40k is more than the average private sector defined contribution pot.

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/how-important-are-defined-contribution-pensions-financing-retirement

 

that's an absolutely incredible stat JC.Breathtaking.

ave age FTBer=38 or so.

lot of people going to enter retirement with private rent to pay and a tiny income.

how did the uk go bankrupt?slowly at first....

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/cut-public-sector-pensions-pay-better-salary-lord-odonnell/

this also links in with JCs point above,but who's paying for these pensions but the very people with none he cites above.

I know we've talked about this for years but some of these stats are jsut incredible.from you link DB.Lot of pulbic sector will get more in one years pay out than the median ave DC pensioner has in their pot.

alos add on £2.6trillion UK national debt serviced by the UK govt inocme of £1.1trillion and we're in Mugabe terroritoy.How the UK used to laugh at him....

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Wtf is this madness? 90% of people not getting a survey before buying a house.

 

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

that's an absolutely incredible stat JC.Breathtaking.

ave age FTBer=38 or so.

lot of people going to enter retirement with private rent to pay and a tiny income.

how did the uk go bankrupt?slowly at first....

this also links in with JCs point above,but who's paying for these pensions but the very people with none he cites above.

I know we've talked about this for years but some of these stats are jsut incredible.from you link DB.Lot of pulbic sector will get more in one years pay out than the median ave DC pensioner has in their pot.

alos add on £2.6trillion UK national debt serviced by the UK govt inocme of £1.1trillion and we're in Mugabe terroritoy.How the UK used to laugh at him....

 

Copper in my street got a pension INCREASE of £5k a year over the last two years.Someone working in the best paid factory within 15 miles of here will have around £135k  needed to equal that after 26 years working.So the retired copper gets INCREASES in 3 years to equal the entire 40 year savings of the £35k pa factory worker.BUT,it does not stop there.If the factory worker is in a 60/40 or lifestyle set up over 30% has been taken already through monetising to pay those retired public sector pensions (and bennies) so it would take a private sector workers 54 years pension savings to equal JUST THE 3 YEAR INCREASE in the coppers pension.Not the pension,the 3 year INCREASE.

There is huge inequality in the UK,huge,but its between the private sector and those on the state tit.

My roadmap signals are vertical.The sea water is bursting over the bulkheads and she is going down fast.

Edited April 24 by DurhamBorn

[Sasquatch]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Wtf is this madness? 90% of people not getting a survey before buying a house.

 

 

We bought a knackered 300 year old house in 2021 with no survey. The mortgage company wasn't bothered as the LTV was  low.

We know what we are doing though....unlike most home buyers I suppose.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

What's this now: half a dozen visits by senior US figures to China in last 2 months, all been treated like dirt.

"Stop trading with Russia"

'No. Fuck off.'

"Ok"

It's getting embarrassing watching America beg.

 

[Pip321]

43 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Wtf is this madness? 90% of people not getting a survey before buying a house.

 

Has anyone had a survey recently.

A basic valuation is just that…drive by…zoopla estimate plus some decent local knowledge and it’s £300. Maybe worth it but only problem is the valuer is influenced by the fact you offered a daft amount 😆

A homebuyers report involves someone looking around for 2 hours then cut and pasting the relevant paragraphs ie

The homebuyer should obtain an electrical report to establish whether the wiring is up to current regulations. Any shortcomings should be rectified before purchasing. 
The homebuyer should obtain a gas report to establish whether the boiler and fires are up to current regulations. Any shortcomings should be rectified before purchasing.

The homebuyer should obtain a damp report to establish whether the penetrating damp requires further action. Any shortcomings should be rectified before purchasing.

Insultation, gutters, drains etc etc  etc etc.

£900….shite.

However, a novice buyer is better with something in case they miss an obvious issue. A decent builder is possibly better….but they can’t value. 

[Spiney Norman]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The sea water is bursting over the bulkheads and she is going down fast.

Its going to be epic watching what the incomming government do/don't do, to try and save this rapidly sinking ship.

I tried to explain to the Mother 'n law that  due to fiscal drag, very soon she'll be paying income tax on her state pension, the look on her face was fucking pricless.

The masses don't have a clue whats going on even though its happening in front of there eyes.

[Plan-b]

Highly Inflationary. Copper a base raw material for many industries, Electrical, Tech, Automation, Construction etc.

Lower inflation incoming? - No chance.