Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, One percent said:

Ta. Cheeky. What’s that saying? “If you are not embarrassed by your offer, it’s not low enough “.  

guy at work did that quite a few years ago, he was telling me he lowballed a house that was for sale by quite a margin, it was ages ago and i cant remember the numbers, anyway current owner told him to do one, i think it was 1 year later he managed to get the house for even less than he offered cos no one else was willing to stump up the kite flying price the owner was asking for. PS. yes was still same owner and ill the guy told me he was mightily pissed off to be selling it to him at an even lower price. So dont give up hope, just depends how desperate they get.

[StrugglingMillennial]

It's a local hotel that owns most of the close and it's standing empty whilst their industry is getting hammered.

I already feel like my offer was too high 😄

[Mandalorian]

7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Stopped reading at that point tbh.

See also: "would of", "could of" and "should of".

It's "would have", "could have" and "should have".

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

guy at work did that quite a few years ago, he was telling me he lowballed a house that was for sale by quite a margin, it was ages ago and i cant remember the numbers, anyway current owner told him to do one, i think it was 1 year later he managed to get the house for even less than he offered cos no one else was willing to stump up the kite flying price the owner was asking for. PS. yes was still same owner and ill the guy told me he was mightily pissed off to be selling it to him at an even lower price. So dont give up hope, just depends how desperate they get.

Years ago, put in an offer on a house. Greedy probate. The mortgage valuer down valued it. We said we would meet them halfway. “A deal is a deal” said vendor. We walked. It sold about a year later for a lot less than we offered.  

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Guide price of 220k and I offered 172k.

A slightly bigger 3 bed in the same close that's a semi, has a parking space outside the front, is away from the main road, has central heating instead of storage heaters and a better interior was only up for 5k more.

As I see it there's 30k in renovations and it's not in as good as the other one or in as nice a spot.

On the face of it your offer seems low to asking price but that doesn’t mean your offer wasn’t fair. I have often viewed houses and thought the asking price is so high that effectively the seller isn’t really selling. So you did the right thing….at least you asked and you got your reply. 

Few mentions/examples already from other posters and when I was buying/selling I had many examples of daft asking prices and getting low offers accepted  

I had to keep the right side of the agents because (for me) no point upsetting the middle men when you might need them for the next deal but if you are buying your main home and doing it once then no harm upsetting anyone.

So my offers were ‘gently positioned’ maybe some discussions with the agent first….but they were low. And exactly like mentioned of the other examples they were often rebuffed but after 3/4 months they would return. And I was never ‘too principled’ to then say no…hey, if it was cheap I was in.

My best example was a flat on at £220k (around 2008) and by the time I viewed it, it was then a decent buy to comparables asking only £170k. But the market was shit…..no one was buying so I offered £150k and was rejected and I then later bought it for £122k at an auction…yummy. Thing is property isn’t liquid….and when sentiment truly goes then buying is a beauty to behold.

I tell this tale not to show off but give you hope….with property it’s about sentiment. You can buy right at the very bottom a year before the bottom arrives and indeed you can buy at below the bottom price because before it comes the despair for sellers and the anticipation that prices just won’t stop falling can create panic in motivated sellers. 

We see people over pay irrationally because they believe prices will continue up and they will miss out….the reverse happens too.

Good luck. 😉

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I do know it was pied a terre btw, the frogs call potatos "apples of the ground" for some reason if directly translated.

I was expecting laugh reactions, so now I wonder:

• Did no one else spot it?
• Did they spot it and feel bad for me pointing it out because they thought I didn't know?
• Was everyone just too cool to ruin the incredibly subtle joke?

Perhaps the reticence of the thread to speak up was because Dan Quayle had already amply demonstrated the risks of attempting to correct others...

 

 

Edited April 23 by JMD

[AWW]

Fuck me our government is shit

[Bien Pensant]

14 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Rumors are Bliken is going to China with a ultimatum stop helping Russia or we will sanction any bank that processes payments from them 

TBH, that makes the Israeli nuke-carrying F35 story sound credible by comparison.

As daft as trying to weaponise the Dollar against Russia was even USG isn't so fucking mad that it's going to risk putting the final nail in the coffin of it's Monopoly money by trying to do the same to its main supplier of quite literally everything.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Bien Pensant said:

TBH, that makes the Israeli nuke-carrying F35 story sound credible by comparison.

As daft as trying to weaponise the Dollar against Russia was even USG isn't so fucking mad that it's going to risk putting the final nail in the coffin of it's Monopoly money by trying to do the same to its main supplier of quite literally everything.

really?

have you been asleep the past 5 years?  The US military injected almost all of it's fighting troops with an untested MRNA concoction, for a disease which had a <0.01% risk for fighting age men.

 

they ARE fucking mad.

[Bien Pensant]

33 minutes ago, wherebee said:

they ARE fucking mad.

Only if one assumes that their primary objective is the well-being of the state.

On the contrary, I assume that their primary objective is to protect their own positions.

Destroying the military might eventually cause the state to collapse but hyper-inflation, which is what will happen if the Chinese stop sending stuff, will kill it immediately, USSR style.

[Pip321]

4 hours ago, Bien Pensant said:

Only if one assumes that their primary objective is the well-being of the state.

On the contrary, I assume that their primary objective is to protect their own positions.

Destroying the military might eventually cause the state to collapse but hyper-inflation, which is what will happen if the Chinese stop sending stuff, will kill it immediately, USSR style.

I think you make the correct assumption.

Sometimes we try to fathom their rational, why they do things when it has a negative impact on the voters and country, why they do things that economically impact the country etc etc.

We should just assume they are feathering their own nest and their plan is only short term. For example Sunak will be in California in 2030…so just assume every decision he makes is to increase his personal wealth before then.

They will send millions of men to die to increase their wealth 2% and they would kill billions (nukes or injections) to increase it 5%.

We will be asked to eat bugs because we are their bugs. 

The vast majority of voters aren’t aware anyway, they are more bothered about who to vote for on X Factor. And those of us who are aware don’t really have a choice who to really vote for. Blue or Red….it makes no difference because it’s the men behind the men that matter.

Knowing this….things become harder to predict that’s why I like the macro thread because eventually ‘things will happen’ regardless of what TPTB do. The timing and triggers are the tricky bit. 

[Cosmic]

9 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Guide price of 220k and I offered 172k.

A slightly bigger 3 bed in the same close that's a semi, has a parking space outside the front, is away from the main road, has central heating instead of storage heaters and a better interior was only up for 5k more.

As I see it there's 30k in renovations and it's not in as good as the other one or in as nice a spot.

Buy t'other one? 

[Cosmic]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

guy at work did that quite a few years ago, he was telling me he lowballed a house that was for sale by quite a margin, it was ages ago and i cant remember the numbers, anyway current owner told him to do one, i think it was 1 year later he managed to get the house for even less than he offered cos no one else was willing to stump up the kite flying price the owner was asking for. PS. yes was still same owner and ill the guy told me he was mightily pissed off to be selling it to him at an even lower price. So dont give up hope, just depends how desperate they get.

I'm really hoping this will happen for me 😀 I put an offer of 460 on an asking of 525, been on over a year with 2 agents. .. Only been a few weeks but it's still on. 

Not desperate to move but that could change if we get kicked out of the rental... 

[sleepwello'nights]

9 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

See also: "would of", "could of" and "should of".

It's "would have", "could have" and "should have".

We did all of that years ago. Along with fewer. 

I've noticed that if we persist the pedants eventually give up with their auto corrects.  

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, sleepwello&#x27;nights said:

We did all of that years ago. Along with fewer. 

I've noticed that if we persist the pedants eventually give up with their auto corrects.  

So, so true.

[MrXxxx]

Looking forward is this where the future lies for the UK?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/milei-announces-argentina-s-first-budget-surplus-in-16-years/ar-AA1nwCzB

[Joncrete Cungle]

9 hours ago, One percent said:

Years ago, put in an offer on a house. Greedy probate. The mortgage valuer down valued it. We said we would meet them halfway. “A deal is a deal” said vendor. We walked. It sold about a year later for a lot less than we offered.  

Ours started off at 250k, viewed it and offered 200k and was laughed out of town. Paid 187k for it 9 months later. He who laughs last.....

Edited April 24 by Joncrete Cungle

[sleepwello'nights]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Looking forward is this where the future lies for the UK?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/milei-announces-argentina-s-first-budget-surplus-in-16-years/ar-AA1nwCzB

I've just read the article. They even inflated the results. It says view 9 comments but there are only 3 when I look 

[headrow]

Early-bird ISA investors have increased by almost a third this tax year, with the most popular investments being banks, insurers and international funds. 

There has been an almost 31% increase in customers maxing out their ISA on the Hargreaves Lansdown platform in the first 10 days of the tax year.

Moreover, customers' payments into a stocks and shares ISA wrapper in this 'early bird' period of the tax year has increased 10%, the UK's largest investment platform said.

Male investors have made up the bulk of these early birds, with the gender split of those maxing out their ISAs so far being 67% male and 33% female.

"This is a higher proportion of male investors than usual; the HL stock and shares ISA split overall is 61.5% male and 38.5% female, implying our ISA maxer early birds are more male than the general ISA population," said Emma Wall, HL's head of investment analysis and research.

Top 10 investments HL clients bought in first 10 days

Legal & General US Index (ETF)

Legal & General Group PLC (LSE:LGEN)

Jupiter India (fund and investment trust) 

Fundsmith Equity (fund)

Fidelity Index World (ETF)

Legal & General International Index (ETF)

Rathbone Global Opportunities (fund)

Legal & General Global Technology Index (ETF)

Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.)

Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY)

The most popular purchases have been a continuation of trading trends seen over recent months: the US, India, banks and technology stocks.

"A mix of momentum and income," Wall described this. "This is a more diversified list than through 2023, in which just tech dominated the top 10 buys lists, and for an ISA wrapper, which we typically consider an investment timeframe of 5-10 years, these are suitable selections.

"However, investors should consider the correlation between some of these selections and ensure that by buying into areas of the market that have done well they may be increasing portfolio biases."

[MrXxxx]

27 minutes ago, headrow said:

The most popular purchases have been a continuation of trading trends seen over recent months: the US, India, banks and technology stocks.

The three most expensive areas of the World stock market...so working on the simple principles of Forward PE and future discounting what does this tell you?....people have bought into the [potentially] lowest performing part of the market.

[Pip321]

36 minutes ago, Cosmic said:

Buy t'other one? 

Hmmm… I did wonder that. @StrugglingMillennial

Trying to get the knackered on for £172k….. is effectively like paying £202k after renovating it. 

If the better one is on at £225k and has £30k spent on it…effectively its better value and asking £25k less (ie £195k) than the knackered £220k one. Plus it’s bigger and has parking…that’s got to be worth £15k? 

Therefore if you were prepared to offer £172k for the knackered one add in costs and parking and slightly better spot that’s like offering £215k for the better one.

Not suggesting you offer £215k for the better one….but you might want a stab at it at a lower amount but reflecting the fact it’s better than the other. Bear in mind it will save a years work….

Appreciate this does presuppose an awful lot (eg you might only be able to afford £173k, and you could live with the old kitchen etc for 10 years) also the work done in the better one might not be to your liking etc etc  

 

[supernaut]

Don't know if any of you guys do transfers ( for a bonus).

Just did a partial transfer of my GIA to CMC invest , bonus amount is dependant on value transferred.

I should be good for a 600 bonus minus 54 in transfer fees from the other provider.

Was a very easy process.

 

 

[Cosmic]

8 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Hmmm… I did wonder that. @StrugglingMillennial

Quote

A slightly bigger 3 bed in the same close that's a semi, has a parking space outside the front, is away from the main road, has central heating instead of storage heaters and a better interior was only up for 5k more.

Could be its sold and I've jumped the gun with the comment?

[headrow]

22 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

The three most expensive areas of the World stock market...so working on the simple principles of Forward PE and future discounting what does this tell you?....people have bought into the [potentially] lowest performing part of the market.

I couldn't find anything I wanted to buy at the current levels. So just stuck £20k in a cash ISA with Barclays. The £1k it earns in interest will pay my council tax for 6 months. Incredible that you need £40k invested to pay your council tax in 2024. Robbing cunts.

[DoINeedOne]

14 hours ago, Errol said:

 

The funny part about that movie was they used Crocs as the shoes because who would wear them, Now mostly among the young Crocs are huge there are 2 pairs sat by my front door daughters not mine but her friends all wear them 

12 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Takeovers leave UK stock market facing 'death by a thousand cuts'

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13337857/Takeovers-leave-UK-stock-market-facing-death-thousand-cuts.html

 

The idea of owning catalogues and collecting royalties seemed like a great idea, but Hipgnosis if I remember correctly got into trouble with their debt I don't think it was at a fixed rate, then interest rates started going up