What's going to collapse next...

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

I will take the opossing side of that. The long term path of interest rates is up, and real wages is down. People are going to get poorer and have lower standards of living as a result. Giving up second cars, or even any car at all, is going to be a part of that for a lot of people IMO.

But it's only going to be the bottom few % who have to give up their car altogether. For most, tightening their belt means holding onto their existing car for longer.

54 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Interesting but I think he’s a few month behind the trend. Januarys auction results were the last month of crazy prices- stuff going for prices I’ve never seen - 15yo clios/micras/jazz for £1k. Last month totally different story- prices really back to normality maybe slightly less. Be interesting to see how the rest of year goes.

Be interesting to see how long that takes to filter through to forecourts.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

But it's only going to be the bottom few % who have to give up their car altogether. For most, tightening their belt means holding onto their existing car for longer.

True, but expanding on my previous point people are also going to have to step down to lesser cars to keep driving. So for example wankpanzer SUV drivers will drop to hatchbacks, german hatchback drivers will drop to older ones or kia etc equivalents, Kia hatchback drivers will drop down to superminis etc. Holding onto existing cars for longer will play a part, but so will swapping to one with lower running costs IMO.

[wherebee]

Sushi Bay, a large chain of sushi outlets in Oz, just collapsed.  Tax debts and staff debts mentioned.

I'd predict input costs went through the roof (staff wages, raw materials, energy) whilst consumers have been tightening their spending.

Tick tick tick

[Andersen]

Royal Quays shopping center at North Shields has gone into receivership. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-65265113?at_link_type=web_link&at_campaign_type=owned&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_ptr_name=facebook_page&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_medium=social&at_link_id=3FE614CC-DA16-11ED-81F1-1FD7D89D5CC3&at_format=link&at_link_origin=BBC_North_East_and_Cumbria

I called this as one to watch 2 years ago but can't find the thread now. Their core customer base was Scandi cruise passengers landing at the nearby port. Cross Channel shopping trips have died a death and so has the shopping center. I'm surprised it survived as long as it did. 

[eek]

9 hours ago, Andersen said:

Royal Quays shopping center at North Shields has gone into receivership. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-65265113?at_link_type=web_link&at_campaign_type=owned&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_ptr_name=facebook_page&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_medium=social&at_link_id=3FE614CC-DA16-11ED-81F1-1FD7D89D5CC3&at_format=link&at_link_origin=BBC_North_East_and_Cumbria

I called this as one to watch 2 years ago but can't find the thread now. Their core customer base was Scandi cruise passengers landing at the nearby port. Cross Channel shopping trips have died a death and so has the shopping center. I'm surprised it survived as long as it did. 

Again? I can’t remember any time in the history of that site where it’s had anything that makes it worth visiting. 

[wherebee]

https://7news.com.au/business/beloved-global-shoe-brand-goes-bust-after-more-than-30-years-c-10375781

[leonardratso]

48 minutes ago, wherebee said:

https://7news.com.au/business/beloved-global-shoe-brand-goes-bust-after-more-than-30-years-c-10375781

obviously wasnt that beloved.

mind you i have seen supposedly decent companies go to the wall because of stupid management policy, brands that are big enough (bud light) will probably survive it, but obviously if you arent tight or big enough, its down the shitter with you sir.

[HousePriceMania]

On 14/04/2023 at 01:55, wherebee said:

Sushi Bay, a large chain of sushi outlets in Oz, just collapsed.  Tax debts and staff debts mentioned.

I'd predict input costs went through the roof (staff wages, raw materials, energy) whilst consumers have been tightening their spending.

Tick tick tick

Sounds fishy to me.

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

https://7news.com.au/business/beloved-global-shoe-brand-goes-bust-after-more-than-30-years-c-10375781

Was this company run by a sole trader ?

[wherebee]

jesus.  i thought I did bad jokes.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

jesus.  i thought I did bad jokes.

There's no need to call me jesus.

[leonardratso]

they werent instep with their customers.

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

they werent instep with their customers.

Have they be soled  yet ?

 

 

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have they be soled  yet ?

 

 

R-soled by the look of it.

too many heels in that company.

[wherebee]

SHUT IT YOU SLAGS OR I'LL HAVE TO TAKE STEPS

[sancho panza]

this looks a kiss of death move.theyve been deep in the sh1t for a while

only reason they got all thsoe members was for the free coffee

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/john-lewis-waitrose-hire-tesco-093124990.html

John Lewis and Waitrose are preparing to launch a joint loyalty card that will offer personalised discounts in a bid to lure shoppers into stores.

John Lewis Partnership, which owns the department store and upmarket supermarket, has hired the architects of Tesco's Clubcard to boost its loyalty schemes and revive its flagging performance.

A joint loyalty card planned for next year is part of John Lewis’s plans to provide customers with "even more benefits".

 

It suggests a change in stance among executives within the partnership, who have previously shunned any similarities to rival loyalty cards.

In 2013 Mark Price, then Waitrose’s chief, branded the benefits offered by rivals' schemes such as the Tesco Clubcard and Sainsbury's Nectar cards as "meaningless".

The John Lewis partnership already has a My John Lewis scheme and a My Waitrose scheme, which have five million members and nine million members respectively.

[Formerly]

On 12/04/2023 at 10:37, AWW said:

But it's only going to be the bottom few % who have to give up their car altogether. For most, tightening their belt means holding onto their existing car for longer.

Sorry for the slow response to this. How would this work in the current age of PCP car rental as opposed to outright purchase? To hold on to your current car, do you not have to make a large payment (circa £10k) after the years of monthly payments? Never having taken out PCP, I genuinely don't know.

[spygirl]

On 17/04/2023 at 07:20, eek said:

Again? I can’t remember any time in the history of that site where it’s had anything that makes it worth visiting. 

I think its had several iterations./developments.

Ive never been. A friend was doing some work on the last lot of development ~10y ago.

I said then I didnt think it would work out.

Ive said on varous time that I think West Quay )Soton) and Oracle (reading) would be the last successful UK Malls.

West Quay seems to be OK.

Oracle isnt. Too close to London and in the rapidly even greater jobless shitholification ofThames Valley.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

On 18/04/2023 at 12:10, leonardratso said:

obviously wasnt that beloved.

mind you i have seen supposedly decent companies go to the wall because of stupid management policy, brands that are big enough (bud light) will probably survive it, but obviously if you arent tight or big enough, its down the shitter with you sir.

I hope not.

Not cos of the trans thing. Bud light is awful even for crap Bud.

 

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, Formerly said:

Sorry for the slow response to this. How would this work in the current age of PCP car rental as opposed to outright purchase? To hold on to your current car, do you not have to make a large payment (circa £10k) after the years of monthly payments? Never having taken out PCP, I genuinely don't know.

"Manufacturer approved" used cars are often ex-lease, and offered on PCP a second time. I assume the monthly is lower (since the initial PCP term has taken the cost of depreciation). I could imagine PCP companies offering similar terms to customers at the end of the initial term, lower ongoing monthly payments to keep the car for a second term, the companies will have real trouble when the returned cars start piling up.

The large payment you mention would be to buy the car at the end of the intial term.

EDIT: Example

https://www.theaa.com/used-cars/cardetails/6-2306296

3 year old Dacia Sendero with nearly 50k miles:

"Representative" PCP £131 x48 months, £2500 final payment if you want to keep the car at the end. Interestingly the APR used is 9.9%, fixed for the term

"Representative" HP on the same car would be £183 x 48 months but no final payment and keep the car at the end. APR is fixed at 12.8%, so clearly the finance is the real product rather than the car.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Axeman123

[belfastchild]

36 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

"Manufacturer approved" used cars are often ex-lease, and offered on PCP a second time. I assume the monthly is lower (since the initial PCP term has taken the cost of depreciation). I could imagine PCP companies offering similar terms to customers at the end of the initial term, lower ongoing monthly payments to keep the car for a second term,

Higher.
I know a couple of people who moved pcp recently on a 3 year old car. They could downgrade to a 2 door version of a lesser model for a lower price but it was a 2 door 3 year old car, not new.
Of course it was a higher payment for the same car but they gave you the option to swap to another 3 year old car, so both went for different colours so it looked like they had got a 'new' car. Really just a merry go round with the same pool of cars plus you are on the hook for MOT costs etc and the tyres you never thought about paying for in the first 3 years.

[JoeDavola]

14 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Higher.
I know a couple of people who moved pcp recently on a 3 year old car. They could downgrade to a 2 door version of a lesser model for a lower price but it was a 2 door 3 year old car, not new.
Of course it was a higher payment for the same car but they gave you the option to swap to another 3 year old car, so both went for different colours so it looked like they had got a 'new' car. Really just a merry go round with the same pool of cars plus you are on the hook for MOT costs etc and the tyres you never thought about paying for in the first 3 years.

So how come a 3 year old car costs more to PCP than it did 3 years ago when it was new? Because the cost of lending has gone up?

[Formerly]

24 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

So how come a 3 year old car costs more to PCP than it did 3 years ago when it was new? Because the cost of lending has gone up?

I guess that you're trading in the original car for less than the outstanding balance, so you carry debt forward onto the next car.

[Axeman123]

55 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Higher.

Fair point, since the interest rate charged will be higher now than when the expiring 3 year PCP deal was agreed. Like for like and excluding interest rate changes the 3 year old car should have a lower monthly as it will depreciate slower from that point on, is what I should have said.

42 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

So how come a 3 year old car costs more to PCP than it did 3 years ago when it was new? Because the cost of lending has gone up?

That is what I would assume, thinking about it now.

18 minutes ago, Formerly said:

I guess that you're trading in the original car for less than the outstanding balance, so you carry debt forward onto the next car.

That is another thing. Many people exceed the PCP agreed mileage, or give the car back at the end with condition issues. This results in a valuation shortfall and balance outstanding even just to hand the car back, normally they would be able to roll this forward onto a new PCP deal. A lot of people may be finding that they can't even afford to hand the car back and take the bus in future, especially if they have had a £50k german SUV where that balance could eaily be four figures.

[belfastchild]

25 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Fair point, since the interest rate charged will be higher now than when the expiring 3 year PCP deal was agreed. Like for like and excluding interest rate changes the 3 year old car should have a lower monthly as it will depreciate slower from that point on, is what I should have said.

That is what I would assume, thinking about it now.

That is another thing. Many people exceed the PCP agreed mileage, or give the car back at the end with condition issues. This results in a valuation shortfall and balance outstanding even just to hand the car back, normally they would be able to roll this forward onto a new PCP deal. A lot of people may be finding that they can't even afford to hand the car back and take the bus in future, especially if they have had a £50k german SUV where that balance could eaily be four figures.

Nobody I know (ok very few people I know have pcp) has ever been charged for extra mileage or bumps and scrapes.
OK, let me rephrase that, the ones I know have said 'it wasnt mentioned'. Thats not to say a fee wasnt added to the next deal and they didnt even ask or were told but didnt listen.
Most people just see shiny shiny and sign on the dotted line.

Just spent 20 mins on hold with my car insurance company for my main car, 40% increase on last year with the auto renewal price. Not 39.6 or 40.23 exactly 40%. Got it down to 12% so thats now broke the 200 quid for the year for the first time in I dont know how long. Will be funny money probably by the time I get the new car.
Went to renew the car tax at 180 quid on the renewal form, 200 quid by the time I went to pay.

Was quoted headline figure of 7.9% car loan for the new car. Didnt even bother going through to find out what it actually was.

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

OK, let me rephrase that, the ones I know have said 'it wasnt mentioned'. Thats not to say a fee wasnt added to the next deal and they didnt even ask or were told but didnt listen.

AIUI a big part of the paintless dent removal and valeting/detailing industry is people trying to avoid getting charged for condition issues at the end of a PCP. Apparently the PCP companies' charges are a lot more expensive than some backstreet/mobile guy, so anyone that has been caught that way once will try and avoid it a second time. I imagine it would also be a sore point for anyone that has been caught out.

I don't think it is possible now, but a few years ago "mileage correction" services were popular for people that had gone over the mileage (first MOT at three years old).