How does Buy to Let END!

[No One]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

yeah cos the Central Bankers are co-ordinated.....can't raise when the yankees and SNB hold...

what's the numbers? percentage of houses for sale in a particular area? where do you get that data from? cheers

Number of listings in my local area. Tracked crudely on rightmove for one year . My thesis was, as IR rise, volume will rise, plateau and then shoot up as sellers rush for the exits.

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, No One said:

Number of listings in my local area. Tracked crudely on rightmove for one year . My thesis was, as IR rise, volume will rise, plateau and then shoot up as sellers rush for the exits.

ah cool gotcha, I see the % is IRs.....when I first looked I thought it was 'percentage of houses' durr me, lol

good work...interesting

the markets are cratering now though.....it's all a game to em......SOOOO this might be a message to the CBs that they need to stop all those naughty IR rises or else they'll crash the economy and everyone's investments/pensions/bla bla......good game innit? or not as the case may be lol.......good luck out there!

[No One]

45 minutes ago, nirvana said:

ah cool gotcha, I see the % is IRs.....when I first looked I thought it was 'percentage of houses' durr me, lol

good work...interesting

the markets are cratering now though.....it's all a game to em......SOOOO this might be a message to the CBs that they need to stop all those naughty IR rises or else they'll crash the economy and everyone's investments/pensions/bla bla......good game innit? or not as the case may be lol.......good luck out there!

There are two axees, one on the left for volume, and one on the right for BOE IR Base rate. 

Thank you for the praise. I dont know fully what I hope to get with the data. But what I know is we cant base our predictions on info from subjective opinion like on TOS, but on actual data. I guess I hope to catalogue data for this HPC if there is one.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

that one looks like a 'runaway train'! ie the up trend is strong

Looks bullish to me.

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, No One said:

you wrote a book?

 

11 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Like the quote from 2013 from the glubberment.

The fact is that the economy that we inherited was completely unbalanced. It was based on
housing, it was based-on finance, it was based on Government spending and it was based on
immigration. Those were four incredibly unstable pillars for sustained economic growth, and
what we have had to do is a major recovery operation.

David Cameron, House of Commons, 30th January 2013

Done fuck-all then...

 

11 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Faisal Islam quote from Spy's book.

What none of us took into account was the extreme abnormality of the mortgage market, the availability of finance. We should have followed the money more closely. I do have regrets. There was a media failure as well as a political and regulatory failure.

Well never mind houses that described the Covid and Vax lies as well, probably much more.

Bland undersights  book.

There's a lot of words in it.

I read it in 15. And I skimmed thru it again when I posted the link here.

The thing that jumped out was the understanding how both 87-91 n 2000-today? Booms were caused by severely fucked bank lending and magic repayment vehicles.

80s one was endowments, where various lifecos competed to lie about returns.

This drove up HP, doubled in fact as a endowment on, say, 100k house was half the price of a repayment.

The IRs shot up 90- 95 and people could not afford interest payments.

There was a further kick in the balls 10 years later (2000+) as the endowments entered the last decade and people found they were only on track for 30% of the debt.

Lessons learned .... which basically was forget about repayment.

So the niche naked IO market, something normally suitable for a handful of people with unusual finances,suddenly became the most popular mortgage I.e fuckwits could not afford repayments.

There's a comment where bland points out the insanity of banks drawing down 99% cash from BoE which is lent, IO, to home owner, which pumps up prices, which causes more lending, etc.2002 to 2007, when something happened..

Only someone insane n inumerate would allow that ... Brown!

Anyhow,, the kick in the balls with IO is now, as they mature.

As bland pointed out, you dont get solvency feedback with io, like you do with repayment - 25x12 repayment events, capital owed slowly falling.

Now, most people can pay an IO mortgage especially with zirp.

However theres that single omfg huge credit event right at the end if 25y, where Joe Fuckwit has to come up with the price of the house.

MMR kills the 80s n 00s boom dead. You get a mortgage, you repay it, no magic or pretend repayment vehicle.

 

 

[eek]

Have we covered Tax Policy Advisor's review of Property118's tax avoidance scheme.

https://www.taxpolicy.org.uk/2023/09/13/property118/

and an extra one

https://www.taxpolicy.org.uk/2023/09/22/amazing/

It actually places figures on how bad the scheme is and while I knew it was bad I didn't realize how much extra tax it creates for those who use such schemes...

 

 

[MrXxxx]

'Our' government has 'chocked' on a policy to improve rentals and/or remediate/addres the [supposed] climate change issue:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/government-u-turn-on-proposed-epc-rules-for-rental-homes-what-does-it-mean-for-landlords-and-tenants/ar-AA1h8fCD

..this tells you all you need to know about a) the way they operate, and b) how important they actually view climate change.

[spygirl]

More LL crap from the i's Marxists.

‘The mortgage on our buy-to-let property jumped from £200 to £1,200 a month and we can’t sell it’

John Palmiero and his wife invested in property to cover their retirement but are now ‘trapped’ by interest rate rises and the cladding crisis

‘It seems to be a punishment if you’ve done this, and you’ve worked hard,’ said John Palmiero (Photo: Supplied)

By Alannah Francis

Reporter

September 21, 2023 1:21 pm(Updated September 22, 2023 5:55 pm)

A couple who invested in property to fund their retirement have seen their monthly mortgage payments rise by £1,000 in a year as a result of consecutive interest rate rises.

IT worker John Palmiero, from Buckinghamshire, and his wife have an interest-only tracker mortgage on their north London flat. A year ago they paid just over £200 a month – now it costs them more than £1,200 a month.

The Bank of England has today decided to maintain the base rate at 5.25 per cent following a lower than expected UK inflation rate. It is the first time since 2021 that the rate has not increased.

Another interest rate rise would have been a particular cause for concern for households with tracker mortgages, which follow the Bank’s base rate, and standard variable rate mortgages, which tend to do the same.

Mr Palmiero, 61, said: “A year ago our monthly repayment was just over £200 [per month]. Today it is over £1,200 [per month] and we worried it was about to increase again.

“For the flat in question, we chose an interest-only mortgage and having experienced very high interest rates in the past, we planned for the worst case scenario – which we are now in – so we have a break even to a small loss each month on the flat.”

Mr Palmiero and his wife own three flats, having sold one before the pandemic, as well as their family home.

Instead of paying into pension plans, the couple invested in property and rely on the profits to cover the costs of their retirement.

Mr Palmiero said: “Over the past 20 years we have diligently saved and accumulated four jointly owned (husband and wife) buy-to-let flats that we planned to use for independence in our retirement.”

But these plans have been hit by the cladding crisis which has meant they are currently unable to sell the flat for a profit, and they are incurring additional costs from consecutive interest rate rises and soaring insurance premiums.

Mr Palmiero said he felt “trapped” and “let down” by the Government, whose response to the building safety crisis following Grenfell he believes has been “ill-thought through”.

He said: “I feel completely let down because, effectively, it seems to be a punishment if you’ve done this, and you’ve worked hard, and you’re in a position where you’re saying, I’m not going to rely on the state pension, I’m going to be independent in my old age, if I’m ill, I don’t want to be having to burden the state, I’ll find some other way.”

UK homeowners on tracker mortgages were facing an average rise of £324 more per month on their mortgage compared to one year ago if the Bank raised the interest rate to 5.5 per cent today.

The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee split five to four in favour of leaving rates unchanged – a move that could signal the peak of borrowing costs.

Mr Palmiero said: “The damage is done now. Another quarter of a per cent increase is going to take £1,300 or something we’re just going to have to suck it up, right, as we have up until now.

“What I’m focused on is the fact that it looks like this is the end of interest rate increases and because we are on a tracker mortgage, when they start to come back down, which they must, then we will see the benefits of that very quickly. So we’re not quite as upset about it. We were at one point, my wife was really upset about it.”

Mr Palmiero added that as a result of the cladding issues their insurance premiums “went through the roof – 600 per cent in our block, which equates to an annual service charge increase from approx £3,000 to approximately £5,000 per annum – all due to insurance increases as a result of the EWS1 failings”.

The Palmieros have not passed on the additional costs from the interest rate rises to their tenants, leaving them dipping into their savings to make up the shortfall between rental income and their mortgage repayments.

“I think it’d be too depressing to see what the shortfall, but those are all costs that accumulate.”

“We’re trying to figure out how do we how do we live our retirement now knowing that our plan was to sell a flat in order to fund our retirement but as it is we’re going to have to figure out how to fund it. So if any month we have some money left over, we’ll pay off against the the mortgage against capital on the basis that if we can afford it, then we will reduce that exposure.”

Mr Palmiero said he and his wife had adopted a pragmatic approach to their situation and he was optimistic that with the rate of inflation falling, interest rate increases would soon end.

“We know when rates start to go back down, our mortgage will go down very quickly.

He added: “We know that once they start to come back down we will very quickly be in a position of surplus again.”

[spygirl]

Brum council: ‘We’re bankrupt but still enforcing new selective licencing scheme’

https://www.landlordzone.co.uk/news/brum-council-were-bankrupt-but-still-enforcing-new-selective-licencing-scheme/

It generates money ffs. Why would they not?

They also need to stop fund migrants housing and public services.

[onlyme]

8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

More LL crap from the i's Marxists.

 

They expected a comfortable retirement on the basis of renters having to pay high rents and buyers overpaying for their leveraged bets.

Sometimes not having expectations is better than having vastly overinflated ones in the first place. 

As bad as it is good that it is in the press, more grist for the mill.

[Boon]

I don't know what amazes me more, the thickness of some people or the papers that just stand by and let prize tools like this go through without comment.

Leveraged BTL is in no way a suitable pension vehicle, investing all your chips in one asset class for your pension is also stupid. It is literally the equivalent of someone borrowing as much as they could and made their pension bars of gold and then crying to the press if the interest rate goes up or the price of gold goes down.

Yet 'property is my pension' atttiude is just accepted by the mainstream and even perpetuated by the property porn programs, which only report the successes and never the failures.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, onlyme said:

They expected a comfortable retirement on the basis of renters having to pay high rents and buyers overpaying for their leveraged bets.

Sometimes not having expectations is better than having vastly overinflated ones in the first place. 

As bad as it is good that it is in the press, more grist for the mill.

The article /LL bordering on parody.

Diligently saved .... Er they are all fucking IO.

For a pension ... so the state won't have to pay if I'm ill .. Err you'll get SP n access to NHS.

In the worst case scenario .... Err average for last 40y scenario.

The comedy ishe works for Santander.

 

 

[Wight Flight]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

The article /LL bordering on parody.

Diligently saved .... Er they are all fucking IO.

For a pension ... so the state won't have to pay if I'm ill .. Err you'll get SP n access to NHS.

In the worst case scenario .... Err average for last 40y scenario.

The comedy ishe works for Santander.

 

 

Yep.

They haven't saved for their pension. They have borrowed it.

Tough.

[No One]

Hello all, back again with another graph. New record at 453, which beats yesterdays the new record of 450.

 

 

 

I'm in the middle of my house move, lots of things to do, so feeling nackered. Have I missed anything important?

[No One]

 

oof.

Not the most desirable type of house nor location within my town but still, oof

[King Penda]

On 21/09/2023 at 21:23, No One said:

There are two axees, one on the left for volume, and one on the right for BOE IR Base rate. 

Thank you for the praise. I dont know fully what I hope to get with the data. But what I know is we cant base our predictions on info from subjective opinion like on TOS, but on actual data. I guess I hope to catalogue data for this HPC if there is one.

Even the data can be doctored.

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, No One said:

 

oof.

Not the most desirable type of house nor location within my town but still, oof

Do they even proof read their text anymore?

Cretins.

[AWW]

On 23/09/2023 at 20:48, Wight Flight said:

Do they even proof read their text anymore?

Cretins.

Did they ever? I always see houses described as "sort after", rooms with "duel aspect", houses described as "deceptively spacious" (what, smaller than it looks?).  I can't think of a single agent that isn't a cretinous parasite. Estate. Recruitment. Letting. Maybe Secret Agents are alright, as I don't know any, so must be doing a decent job.

[onlyme]

Renters hit the buffer, the trend continues. Demand can dissipate.

[GTM]

Is the rental market starting to crash? 2 additions but 4 reductions in my search area today. Plenty of reductions at higher (£2000+ pcm) rents, but reductions now seem to be happening below this level also. Southampton, Winchester and the bit in between.

[Boon]

I think crash is the wrong word at least in my neck of the woods.

But supply is up bigly, for instance last October London +1 mile had c.16k properties to rent, and now, it's c.28k. That's more than a 50% increase.

That to me explains the Spareroom stats above, with supply being more plentiful.

Anedotally as well, at the beginning of the year people could achieve some really kite-flying high rents, but now they are not moving at this price and needs cutting, BTR also puts a lid on the prices a flat can go for.

And the bigger picture, is that rents overall are still way above pre-pandemic levels, and especially at the very lowest end of the private market (like the studios/1 beds for London). Maybe you have the regular demand plus people squeezed out from upper levels competing.

But the higher levels, which is not flats but like family houses, it appears much, much weaker. In fact I've seen some houses in the £2-3k bracket) which are the same cost now as pre-pandemic.

I think it is explained by, everyone has £1k a month to spend on rent, not everyone has £2k.

[onlyme]

17 hours ago, Boon said:

I think crash is the wrong word at least in my neck of the woods.

But supply is up bigly, for instance last October London +1 mile had c.16k properties to rent, and now, it's c.28k. That's more than a 50% increase.

That to me explains the Spareroom stats above, with supply being more plentiful.

Anedotally as well, at the beginning of the year people could achieve some really kite-flying high rents, but now they are not moving at this price and needs cutting, BTR also puts a lid on the prices a flat can go for.

And the bigger picture, is that rents overall are still way above pre-pandemic levels, and especially at the very lowest end of the private market (like the studios/1 beds for London). Maybe you have the regular demand plus people squeezed out from upper levels competing.

But the higher levels, which is not flats but like family houses, it appears much, much weaker. In fact I've seen some houses in the £2-3k bracket) which are the same cost now as pre-pandemic.

I think it is explained by, everyone has £1k a month to spend on rent, not everyone has £2k.

Not sure everyone has £1k to pay rent when the chips are down, not calling a crash in rents just observing that the pass though from higher mortgage rates to rents is not a done deal, it has partly worked so far but looks to be hitting the limits and  renters attitudes will change and the market with it. Think were are in the turning phase of that and expectations (space, sharing density, other alternatives) are rapidly coming into play faced with the rent increases.  Renters in a tricky position when faced with hikes and on the spot choices, so many in the short term have swallowed the rises, Probably on just begun to see how renters will react, how many will sublet and realise that the rent deals the are signed up to are not viable and that is before any significant job losses to come as the recession drags on.

[spygirl]

Furious landlord hits out at family from HELL after forking out THOUSANDS to fix property: 'I gave them charity and they treated my home like a doss house'

• EXCLUSIVE:  Paul Rostron's tenants treated his house like a cesspit
• The unfortunate landlord had had to shell out thousands in repairs
• Have you had nightmare tenants? Email: [email protected] 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-12566799/I-gave-charity-treated-home-like-doss-house-Furious-landlord-hits-family-HELL-forking-THOUSANDS-fix-property.html

A landlord who rented out his 3-bedroom County Durham terraced house to a family on housing benefits has been saddled with thousands of pounds in repair damage after the tenants moved out leaving the property looking 'like a s*******'.

University lecturer Paul Rostron, 57, from Swindon, rents out three small properties in County Durham to contribute to his children’s university fees and had previously been blessed with good, responsible tenants. 

Unfortunately Paul has now been saddled with thousands of pounds worth of repairs and cleaning after his old tenants treated his house like a 'doss house' and left  behind mountains of rotting furniture and rubbish. 

[spygirl]

Fuck him. Leech.

Plently ofsocial housing in CoDurham.

What fuckign charity?

 

Prior to joining Cranfield University, Paul was Assistant Professor of Chemistry at the Petroleum Institute, Abu Dhabi, responsible for the delivery of academic courses in Chemistry related to petroleum production and exploration, as well as undergraduate chemistry degree courses. Additionally he was the Departmental Health and Safety lead, developed research into corrosion in the oil and Gas industry, and has over 30 peer reviewed papers published, 4 PhD and 20 MSc students supervised.

 

He explained: 'The tenants were not able to pay the rent themselves so we got them the Universal Credit and got housing benefit to pay the rent

‘They were paying £380-a-month for a three bedroom terraced house. I was making a loss.

‘I was basically giving them charity and in return they treated my house like a s*******’

[spygirl]

Hed have am de a bigger fucking loss if he hadnt put the scummers in.

But faced with an empty property, waiting for a propert, PAYE jobs, the greedy fucker put in scratters the LHA had kicked out.