Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What about ladies as wide as a skip? There's a few of them around these days.

Hate to think what I might find 'digging' around in one of those...and I may find that I cannot get back out again if go too deep! :-0

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I've not seen anything, as a long term investor, that makes me think he's wrong.

Agree. Seems about right - possibly even on the low side. I've been thinking the same since 2000.

28 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Update: Due to unprecedented silver demand, SD Bullion is unable to accept any additional orders until the market opens Sunday evening.

Apmex is having similar issues. 

[geordie_lurch]

Silver definitely seems to be about to make a move

Quote

For some background on just how unprecedented this weekend's action in silver markets is, Tyler Wall, the CEO of SD Bullion writes the following (emphasis ours): 

In the 24 hours proceeding Friday market close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10x the number of silver ounces that we normally would sell in an entire weekend leading to Sunday market open.

In a normal market, we normally can find at least one supplier/source willing to sell some ounces over the weekend if we exceed our long position (the number of ounces we predict we will sell over the weekend).

However, everyone we talk to is afraid of a gap up at Sunday night market open.

This is about ready to get really interesting as there was very little inventory left from suppliers/mints going into Friday close.

Our direct AP supplier informed us after close on Friday that the "US Mint will be on allocation for the remainder of Type 1" (Current Silver Eagle Design).

Our sales for the month of January exceeded any one month last year during the heart of the pandemic. It was an all-time record month in our company history.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddit-preparing-unleash-worlds-biggest-short-squeeze-silver

[Boon]

If you read the WSB thing it seems that they are deleting stuff on silver, probably to keep all stuff on GME

Wonder how long it'll be until they take some decision which incurs the wrath of the crowd.

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

That's interesting Majorpain. Maybe a bit off topic, and I am certainly no expert here - but I wonder can 'restricted shares' be shorted? All the tradeable shares which can be bought and sold are I believe called the 'float'. But restricted shares are owned/potentially owned by co. directors, or not yet released by the company, and which can often amount to a staggering 20% of total shares. Just wondering if the 'invented shorted shares' mentioned above - and which is I accept an illegal activity to do - but might they just have something to do with restricted shares and the Hedge funds have invented a new outrageous derivative to include them?

Don't know, but Michael Burry is in GME and he has a good record of punishing Wall Street when they get greedy and do something stupid.

[Errol]

- SPROTT MONEY NO LONGER ACCEPTING ORDERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

- KITCO IS DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE

[Castlevania]

What time does the silver futures market open?

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

- SPROTT MONEY NO LONGER ACCEPTING ORDERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

- KITCO IS DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE

Quelle surprise, only the big boys allowed to trade tomorrow perchance.

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What time does the silver futures market open?

2230 gmt

[Bricks & Mortar]

19 minutes ago, Errol said:

- SPROTT MONEY NO LONGER ACCEPTING ORDERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

- KITCO IS DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE

This is just guesswork on my part:  There may not be an actual shortage of silver supply. 
There's good reason to believe the price will gap-up considerably when the futures open this evening.  No-one can say how much.  The dealers, and Sprott Money, may be just choosing not to trade and give the stuff away for $27 (+spread), when they can get.. well who knows, $29, $30 or even more, in just a few short hours, and if it does gap up there's the restock cost to consider as well.

This chart is being touted on Twitter by some of the silver poster/rampers.  I'm unfamiliar with it, but appears to be SLV futures, and trading right now, and ooochafffuuuuu...  would you look at that.

https://ftx.com/en/trade/SLV-0326

[Bricormortis]

Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco did an interview fielding questions on the short squeeze. He said iirc there is no shortage of 1000 oz bars, also that to move the market circa $15 up would need demand in the region of 200 to 300 tons, maybe he has an agenda of course dont shoot the messenger.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pIDNcHhhO0&t=793s

[Errol]

- BullionbyPost in the Uk also suspended all Silver dealing.

- Atkinsons Bullion also paused all trading.

[leonardratso]

i think they are on a hiding to nothing at this MCAP, might make a nice spike though, im just gonna carry on buying my monthlies as normal, not chasing this, probably tank as fast (ie faster) than it rises.

Apes strong together. lol

[geordie_lurch]

Sprott says it's all nonsense

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Welcome-Back-to-the-Real-World-David-Brady-Jan-28-2021

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Sprott says it's all nonsense

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Welcome-Back-to-the-Real-World-David-Brady-Jan-28-2021

That was on Thursday

[DurhamBorn]

Silver is the inflation hedge daddy.Like this thread has always said it is likely to be the cycles best performing asset.The main takeaway from whats going on is that young people are being woken up to the fact silver protects them from printing theft.That is huge,and im very pleased about that.Maybe they put pressure on the shorts by actually buying the physical silver slowly and surely.I must admit,if they did squeeze a big run early it would be quite a moment seeing my son pay his mortgage off before 23 years old,his grandchildren would have a photo of me in their wallets 

[Harley]

Good podcast on the context of whats been going on by some older but somewhat sympathetic hands (given their junior miner naked shorting experience several years ago):

"January 29, 2021 – After this week's market wrap, Jim Bianco of the widely-read Bianco Research (click here for a free trial) discusses what happened in recent weeks as retail investors take on large hedge funds shorting stocks like GameStop and others. Jim says that with lots of people unemployed empowered by modern technology, this trend is unlikely to end soon and what he expects to unfold in the coming weeks and months. Next, we speak with Bruce Fraser of Wyckoff Trading (click here for today's slides) to get his technical outlook for the market before ending".

[Green Devil]

58 minutes ago, Errol said:

- BullionbyPost in the Uk also suspended all Silver dealing.

- Atkinsons Bullion also paused all trading.

All these guys have suspended trading simply because they are expecting a ramp higher, and they can PROBABLY sell it for more in a few weeks 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

14 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

All these guys have suspended trading simply because they are expecting a ramp higher, and they can PROBABLY sell it for more in a few weeks 

Self fulfilling prophecy. 

[Ellandback]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

2230 gmt

Thought they resume trading at 11pm? Like a nerd I check the open most nights on bullion vault and that usually kicks in at 11 so be handy to know if there is another site showing PA earlier..

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Ellandback said:

Thought they resume trading at 11pm? Like a nerd I check the open most nights on bullion vault and that usually kicks in at 11 so be handy to know if there is another site showing PA earlier..

might be 11, im sure the clocks go green 1030pm on investing.com, might be out a bit.

[sleepwello'nights]

On 23/01/2021 at 22:36, sancho panza said:

Have you seen the balance sheet?

I feel really stupid asking this, why doesn't it add up?

Arithmetically I can't get any total or subtotal from the numbers shown in any year. 

[Harley]

I'm at my physical PM allocation so time to move into equities which I have been watching but waiting for the technicals to turn and strengthen. Will things turn here instead or just blip up?  Anyway, prudent I open a few positions to get them on the radar.  Most concerned about an overall equity market turn here though given valuations and the great excuse/cover provided.  Next worry would be regulation on the other side of that to strengthen TPTB at my expense.  Hopefully great longer term entries to the right sectors afterwards if not.  In trader mode atm.    

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I feel really stupid asking this, why doesn't it add up?

Arithmetically I can't get any total or subtotal from the numbers shown in any year. 

That's a very good mindset to first validate any set of given numbers.  Alas most often you'll go mad trying.  Worse, trying to reconcile one web site's data to another.  Or trying to recreate their reported ratios like price to book.  Mad I say, look what it did to me!

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

- BullionbyPost in the Uk also suspended all Silver dealing.

- Atkinsons Bullion also paused all trading.

I just placed an order with Coininvest, confirmation has been received for delivery to the UK.  The price is slightly higher than it was last night.

When I looked yesterday Baird & Co were a tad more expensive, but their price was unchanged making them a bit cheaper. I tried to place an order with them but their site wouldn't let the order proceed to checkout. A technical fault that shelters them no doubt.