Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[arrow]

54 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Topped up some BP this morning. Even though I don't fully trust the CEO yet, I couldn't resist a small buy on this pullback. Results are last years news, they are making money today. Also topped up BT, RIO, BHP, RR and SSE. Some nice pullbacks on the LSE I think.

Did the same. Also topped up some Chevron/Xom a few days ago. My once "balanced" portfolio is now 80% oil.

[Talking Monkey]

4 minutes ago, arrow said:

Did the same. Also topped up some Chevron/Xom a few days ago. My once "balanced" portfolio is now 80% oil.

Sheesh that's ballsy

[Harley]

52 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Topped up some BP this morning. Even though I don't fully trust the CEO yet, I couldn't resist a small buy on this pullback. Results are last years news, they are making money today. Also topped up BT, RIO, BHP, RR and SSE. Some nice pullbacks on the LSE I think.

I'm fully allocated on BATS but at an 8% loss.  Not worried given the current situation and happy to use funds to trade out the loss.  Rightly never trusted the Dec and Jan price action (fake buy signals) so will see if Feb fares better.  Same with BT.A to a lesser extent but looks better.  RIO and BHP made their moves a long time ago and skirting the overbought zone where they can go higher or get choppy.  Interesting BHP at a double top whereas RIO broke through.  I need better fundamentals for RR although some odd price action in some of its competitors.  Might have to top slice SSE soon!

All a good example why I'm looking further afield.  Big picture though the FTSE has done poorly due partly to its sector composition.  This may be more on the money later so maybe I'll just settle for an ETF and some trades and stay international for equity and also work/prep other asset classes.

 

[Harley]

15 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

shame we cant buy XLE outright,

No way, you not at "professional investor" status yet given all that oil savvy and money, all turbo'd with options!

[JMD]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Heidelberg was already on my BK shopping list based on proximity to the fiscal tit (since governments seem to love projects that involve pouring vast quantities of concrete). Haven't bitten yet purely because divi yield looked a bit stingey compared to other opportunities, but a second thesis like this would change things for sure.

Edit to add: other players in the sector ought to be worth a look on the same basis. Anything to stop, say, Lafarge, Saint Gobain or CRH going down same road?

I agree with your '2nd thesis' comment. Government intervention/carbon regulation will be a powerful driver (esg, green-washing, etc, is not to be dismissed; after all carbon credits and all kinds of 'mangled moral government thinking' will dominate future policy). And snap!! i also had Heidelberg and the others you list... part of my next cycle infrastructure play, and was also waiting/hoping for BK/drop.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Heidelberg was already on my BK shopping list based on proximity to the fiscal tit (since governments seem to love projects that involve pouring vast quantities of concrete). Haven't bitten yet purely because divi yield looked a bit stingey compared to other opportunities, but a second thesis like this would change things for sure.

Edit to add: other players in the sector ought to be worth a look on the same basis. Anything to stop, say, Lafarge, Saint Gobain or CRH going down same road?

I worked the industry a few months ago given the macro but saw little in the way of fundamentals and/or value. Would have done fine trading/exploiting the March dips though. Grabbed a few asians instead, so far with limited success.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

 

"Correct one"?

Good point. Correct one from the point of view of being easy to buy (and sell) and relates to the Gazprom as a whole.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have OGZD, which appears to be the correct one, traded in London.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGZD:LI

Yes the ticker code for PJSC is OGZD

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Agreed - monthly indicators look terrible to me.

Interesting to see these views on the PM miners and how they diverge with Dave Hunter who's really pushing his silver and PM miners bull run through this quarter. I just can't see it myself and wonder what indicators Hunter is looking at to be so bullish.

[Mapper]

3 hours ago, CVG said:

Welcome. I'm not sure if it was answered.

For me, it just means cashing in 10/20/30% of an investment in order to realise some of the gains that have been made, i.e. taking a bit off the top.

Thanks. I wondered whether it was a personal thing or whether there was some kind of quantative approach.

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Think of it like horticulture.

If you're the kind of grower that gets down the allotment most days, pulling up small weeds here, thinning seedlings there, then top-slicing is probably a good way to approach investing.

If, like me, you're more about studied negligence then I wouldn't worry about it. You'll likely see a gradual loss of diversity as the winners run ("massive greens" syndrome) and you'll want to rebalance at some point. Probably with a brush cutter and some agent orange to hand.

Definitely more like you!

I'd rather enjoy the view of the garden with a large G&T.

 

[reformed nice guy]

Reigned in the wanking for an evening to review my portfolio since things are looking a bit weird with the world. Gamestop, silver manipulation being in the mainstream media, coups in Burma, covid etc.

I have used ladders to buy primarily. Sector allocation has been a secondary thought but bargains were grabbed even if I was buying disproportionally.

Currently I am 25% cash, 59% stocks/funds, 11% crypto, 5% PMs.

This was mostly just luck from being a long term holder of crypto and buying a bunch of sovereigns in 2016.

Funds are 21% of the stocks/funds part. They are mainly cheap trackers with a focus on Asia. I have sold all my American trackers. Also have some inflation linked bond funds like "Ishares TIPS", "Vanguard UK inflation linked Gilt"

Of the individual shares the split is:

9% chemicals, 5% consumer, 10% mining, 36% oil&gas, 5% PMs, 5% potash, 5% telecoms, 10% utility, 15% tech

The tech is high because I have been lucky with some of them which have flown, especially Chintech. Im paring this down but keeping things which I see as strategic (ASML, TSMC for example). Potash needs to be built up but that is mainly some Mosaic that I bought at $7! wish I bought more. I was a bit higher on the PMs but I sold a bunch yesterday.

 

[reformed nice guy]

Quick question, maybe one for you @Harley

Thoughts on Petrochina? The ADR on the American market

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Depends which one you want.  Per reading their profiles, they are different businesses.  Depends if you want all or part of the business.

A quick look on Investing.com......

Gazprom Neft' PAO  (SIBN:MOEX) is a vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and internationally. The Company's principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and marketing operations through its retail outlets. The Company manages its operations in two segments: Upstream and Downstream. The Company's Upstream segment (exploration and production) includes exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), and oil field services. The Downstream segment (refining and marketing) processes crude into refined products and purchases, sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products. The Company offers products and services for motorists and a range of businesses. It offers Gazprom Neft Engine Oils and G-Energy premium oils brands for use in the passenger vehicles.

Gazprom PAO (GAZP:MOEX) operates gas pipeline systems. The Company's principal activities include exploration and production of gas; transportation of gas; sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad; gas storage; production of crude oil and gas condensate; processing of oil, gas condensate and other hydrocarbons, and sales of refined products, and electric and heat energy generation and sales. The Company's segments include Production of gas, Transportation, Distribution of gas, Gas storage, Production of crude oil and gas condensate, Refining, Electric and heat energy generation and sales, and Other. The Production of gas segment is engaged in the exploration and production of gas. The Transportation segment is engaged in the transportation of gas. The Distribution of gas segment is engaged in the sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad. The Gas storage segment is engaged in the storage of extracted and purchased gas in underground gas storages.

To add: Gazprom PAO owns 92.66% of Gazprom Neft.  BP owns a smallish slice of Gazprom PAO via Roseneft.

IMO the likes of HL do not offer sufficient company data. 

Harley is correct about the information presented on the buying platforms - HL etc - they are indeed frequently very innacurate/awful - particularly given their financial purpose.

However the divi info. appears correct; the difference between the two Gazprom dividend stocks (listed in opening post) seems to have widened since mid 2019 - not sue why? - as back then they were both paying similar (divi approx. 8%).    

Anyway, hope the one i own: LSE:OGZD is the parent as that is what i wanted to buy (its market cap is certainly the largest!!). However, it currently pays the lower of the two divi stocks mentioned, though i expect the higher paying stock will be adjusted down maybe.

Actually, the different Gazprom stocks/exchanges were discussed here a while back and i seem to recall that CattleProd said he bought 'Gazprom Neft OJSC' (LSE:GAZ) - could be wrong, so CP might need to confirm if that is correct i guess?  

[arrow]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

Sheesh that's ballsy

Well, I never thought they'd ever drop this low

Our society is built on affordable energy. That's fossil fuels.

People hate fossil fuels. But, it's like hating the house that you live in so much that you burn it down and now have to sleep outside in the cold.

It's great to have a vision of how our modern society should be powered by green energy.

But, it's not achievable unless there are huge scientific/technical breakthroughs.

People want to make it happen. But, a lot is wish fulfilment and delusional. The more obstacles or punishment for fossil fuels, the more the price will increase.

The US/Russia/China are not fighting over solar or windpower. They're fighting over fossil fuels.
 

[arrow]

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Hmmm it seems my stop loss for BP at 258p didn't trigger with HL so I had to do it manually. That doesn't exactly give me confidence if / when the BK hits

As has been discussed on this thread, unfortunately HL don't give you direct market access, only an internal market. So, they'll try and match you internally or through the broker that gives them direct access. If a BK hits, it'll be unlikely that a stop loss will be triggered in time

[Talking Monkey]

9 minutes ago, arrow said:

Well, I never thought they'd ever drop this low

Our society is built on affordable energy. That's fossil fuels.

People hate fossil fuels. But, it's like hating the house that you live in so much that you burn it down and now have to sleep outside in the cold.

It's great to have a vision of how our modern society should be powered by green energy.

But, it's not achievable unless there are huge scientific/technical breakthroughs.

People want to make it happen. But, a lot is wish fulfilment and delusional. The more obstacles or punishment for fossil fuels, the more the price will increase.

The US/Russia/China are not fighting over solar or windpower. They're fighting over fossil fuels.
 

Totally get it and have been cranking my oilies allocation further the past two weeks

[geordie_lurch]

36 minutes ago, arrow said:

As has been discussed on this thread, unfortunately HL don't give you direct market access, only an internal market. So, they'll try and match you internally or through the broker that gives them direct access. If a BK hits, it'll be unlikely that a stop loss will be triggered in time

Thanks for taking the time to let me know that @arrow as I'd missed that. I will have to rethink things my end then as that info kind of defeats the point of a stop loss

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

"Correct one"?

Yes, a Mr Vlad Putin told me and Yadda Yadda Yadda to buy it. That's how it works isn't it? 

(decl: I do own it btw; Not advice of course, unless that is Mr 'P' tells you so!!)

[Transistor Man]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

The tech is high because I have been lucky with some of them which have flown, especially Chintech. Im paring this down but keeping things which I see as strategic (ASML, TSMC for example).

I agree with those two. Unique capabilities. Very difficult to replicate. 

[nirvana]

despite the shit show at BP, US oil is rocking it's arse off today.....looks like it wants to hit 55

HODL 

Aaaannnnndddd it hit 55 

[geordie_lurch]

9 minutes ago, nirvana said:

despite the shit show at BP, US oil is rocking it's arse off today.....looks like it wants to hit 55

HODL 

Yeah I sold the last of my BP this morning and put the cash straight into Gazprom before that rose today and happy with that switch

EDIT XOM is 45.96 +1.04 (2.32%) before hours over there

[nirvana]

Gold dip buyers be like

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Quick question, maybe one for you @Harley

Thoughts on Petrochina? The ADR on the American market

Oh yes!  Bought an initial position in what seems like ages ago and am waiting for a monthly buy signal which must be soon.  Same with the Russian ones.  Recently bought a couple of tier two US ones following buy signals.  Again, just initial ladders.

Edit:. Wrong!  I bought a couple of others not PetroChina.  Not sure why not them.  Would have to gave another look.

[nirvana]

just an observation, DXY has popped up above 91 but oil is also up.....they used to move inversely....

perhaps another indication of a world gone mad? 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Currently I am 25% cash, 59% stocks/funds, 11% crypto, 5% PMs.

I think I have a PM problem.  About 30% worth.  God help me if they go up in price!