Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

Any thoughts on how all this potentially wider hedge fund trouble could play out for us?  Derivative central (remember DBs comment a while back)?  Threats and opportunities?  Maybe a default sector rotation?  Maybe pullbacks in commodities with a chance to top up?  Maybe a move to USD and USTs or will this mark a turning from that?  Or just kids and their loud music?  I need to review the data tonight for some trades, but also need to step back and look at allocations and risks.  Will be in the Asian markets later to kick things off.

I think behind the scenes you'll be seeing a lot of hedgies have derisked already where they can.The longer term impact is harder to measure.

This is the sort of thing markets need is companies going financial bust because it inherently limits leverage much better than the SEC.William WHite once said that the best way to regulate the banks was to let one go bust once in a while.

I have zero symptahy with these people screaming for a bailout of Wall St hedgies.Even more amusing that they got a bailout and the reddit gang have busted it in a week.

12 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Can one of you crystal ball guys tell me when Reddit are gonna find out about FRES?

Also, who cares when this market top is. Unless big oil gets taken out, in which case we're back to the stone age anyway, we're positioning for 5-7 years out.

Would love to see a decent pump on silver here though. Fingers crossed.

Absolutely HH,depends how your portfolio is set up.Techs peaking has zero conseqeunces for many on here.

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Chamath closed his position but discusses quite angrily at times how all this has been such an incredibly important event including how the hell can you have a 136% short position despite the CNBC (w)anchor trying to shoot him down...

 

Great interview.Very revealing as much from lsitening the the Anchor responses as Chamths words.

3 hours ago, Green Devil said:

I thought they were playing the options? (i might be wrong). Usually the options expire on the monday and they either get called or put the stock. That means they have to go out into the market on monday which is why the market usually crashes on a monday. Short stock they will be able to hold as long as they have enough cash to cover the margin call. If they dont then the stock moons.

I thought they were playing the options? (i might be wrong). Usually the options expire on the monday and they either get called or put the stock. That means they have to go out into the market on monday which is why the market usually crashes on a monday. Short stock they will be able to hold as long as they have enough cash to cover the margin call. If they dont then the stock moons.

Thrid friday generally.UK/US,some more liquid stocks have expiries every Friday.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expiration-time.asp

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman suggested Wednesday that her exchange could halt trading activity for stocks, in the event they were targeted by internet users, to enable the exchange to investigate possible manipulation and allow investors to “recalibrate.”

what a fucking bitch! I guess 'free markets' are fine as long as the 'banking elite' control the strings eh?

She'll be competing against Christine Lagrade next for 'complete control freak bitch of the century'!!! 

[DoINeedOne]

21 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Robinhood owners get paid by Citadel to frontrun customer orders........probably same with others, it's a big con 

https://www.ft.com/content/4a439398-88ab-442a-9927-e743a3ff609b

If its FREE your the product, no different to Facebook etc... its just all data for sale

[JMD]

4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

If silver spikes in line with the WSB plan and you later need to use silver as money for "reasons", a Britannia is going to be about as useful as a £500 note. Fine for bribing a guard, not so useful for buying fuel for the improvised flamethrower.

Can't recommend these highly enough:

No, I'm not on commission.

But wouldn't it be much cheaper to buy 'junk silver'? That's what the Americans do, but for us here in uk i guess more difficult with importing... Genuine thought/question. 

[Democorruptcy]

Amerman's latest

Three Paths For Massive Monetary Creation In A Pandemic World

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Or just go Victorian and use pre-1920 currency all the way to down to a threepence weighing 1.4g 

oops just saw your comment Lightscribe, yep very true - we have our own junk silver market, but tbh i am very jealous of the huge US 'junk silver' one.

[jamtomorrow]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

But wouldn't it be much cheaper to buy 'junk silver'? ...Genuine thought/question. 

If you're interested only in $/g, sure - the premium on those combibars is eye-watering.

What you're paying a premium for is a little bit of convenient trust - a counterparty can potentially satisfy themselves they're getting Real Silver without having to assay, or whatever. Same idea as pre-debasement silver coins, as others have pointed out.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

If anyone on here is struggling to keep up...

 

She lost me at 'some people have hedges round their houses'. You see I have a hedge at my house, and i now feel somehow complicit with all those greedy manipulative horrible 'hedgie horde'... am i destined to be forever smeared by association? (declaration: although i might own a hedge, it doesn't go all the way round my property, i.e. i'm not that wealthy or part of the 0.1%!)

[goldbug9999]

45 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Robinhood owners get paid by Citadel to frontrun customer orders........probably same with others, it's a big con 

https://www.ft.com/content/4a439398-88ab-442a-9927-e743a3ff609b

Yep totally predictable, if its free you are the product. Its well known that these so called "free" broking accounts sell your order details to high frequency trading shops to front run them.

[sancho panza]

Chart tracking changes to big oil from when Brent went over $50.

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Boon said:

In this day and age it seems impossible to me. The bigger it gets, it gets more dependent on others for hosting, banking.  Both of which can be removed.

Pressure can be put on the top person; who wants to become another Assange? 

Just a general observation but I find it very interesting and informative, that in moments like this, people of 'the left' - like say Robert Peston (or others already in political life, i.e. don't mean to specifically pick on Peston) - don't step forward to become a 'focal point' and to reveal to people how things really are. Instead it is people from the 'so-called' right who often fulfill this role of attempting to rally the masses. I'm thinking Farage, Trump, le Penn, and also many other politicians in Europe. Yes, these leaders are smeared as being mere 'populists', but I think this is how things will play out - that it will be a right-of-center leader who will capture the hearts/minds/twitter accounts(or its accomodative replacement!) of the people... or will it be different next time? 

 

[leonardratso]

hmm

[Hunty]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

@HuntyBP just hit 2.72!

The Gap has been filled @2.72.

She might linger a little to reassure that the bottom of the trading channel has been met for a few days?

All my orders have been confirmed at around ~2.72~2.735

We are now in buy territory so let's watch where she goes today.

Could get interesting when it opens over the pond.

Gap at 2.92. Hopefully next stop!

 

GLA

 

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Hunty said:

The Gap has been filled @2.72

which gap was that? got a chart? cheers

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

hmm

Interesting. AG = First Majestic.

[Ma2]

Maybe not the best place to post but having a bit of a dilemma. People have mentioned a few times that there are some really interesting 10/15 year fixed mortgage deals around at the moment so I had a review of some and this 10yr from Coventry looks the best in terms of rate and early repayment charges

• 2.29% Fixed rate to 31.03.31
• 5.00% of the balance repaid until 31.03.23, then 3.00% until 31.03.26

• You can repay up to 10% of the capital p.a. without an early repayment charge

• Application fee: None
• Product fee: £999 (can be added to mortgage)
• Mortgage exit fee: £125
• Funds transfer fee: £8
• One valuation included for properties up to the value of £1,000,000
• Remortgage Transfer Service included

I'm really struggling with whether to re-mortgage now or not though. My current 5 year fix finishes in October and I really don't want to be agonising for the next 9 months over whether attractive 10/15 year fixes will still be available then.

But... it's going to cost aroud £3,700 to switch with the new product fee and current early repayment fees (2% even in final year - Leeds ). That's money that could be invested (or used to support WSB and the end of days ).

I reckon the opportunity cost of waiting and there being no decent deals later in the year means it makes better sense to invest the money in peace of mind for the next 10 years and go for the fix now.

Even if I get say 5% p.a. on £3,700 that would only total £2,400 interest compounded over 10 years

If my mortgage rate on £125k went up to say 6% (average) for 10 years that would be around £75,000 interest vs £28,500 interest when fixed at 2.28 interest over 10 years which saves £46,500 interest?

Anyone else looking into this and done any sums? I don't trust my maths...!

Also they keep asking me if I want to borrow more than I owe, per other discussions that is really tempting at 2.28% but think I'll play it safe for now

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm

in other thread...

First Majestic: Pre Market (half-spread):  28 Jan, 12:19  19.1050  +5.2150 (+37.72%)

copyright @BearyBear

edit, it's not moving yet 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

https://wsb.gold/public/dashboard/e65fcfcb-70a4-4d86-b7fb-888057c67881

This is the WSB stats page. Shows the most commonly referenced tickers. AG isn't high on the list.

Daily Mail is touting American Airlines as being next on the WSB hitlist. Nonsense. 

[Democorruptcy]

American Airlines are currently up 80% in pre-market trading. They have 25% short interest, 152m shares.

Are we going to see firms have huge gains from people rushing to close shorts in case they are the next reddit target. Then if this reddit thing is closed down, a lot of firms that went up on fear, would then be worth shorting on fundamentals, IF.... you had the balls?

This is NOT advice

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Im ready for the Victorian post apocalypse 

 

A 'Victorian post apocalypse' you say... looks like a monetization of 'Steam Punk' to me - great, i'm all in!!!

[goldbug9999]

2 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

If my mortgage rate on £125k went up to say 6% (average)

6% mortgage rate ? on what planet is that going happen. 

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

in other thread...

First Majestic: Pre Market (half-spread):  28 Jan, 12:19  19.1050  +5.2150 (+37.72%)

copyright @BearyBear

aha

but i did quote it yesterday here when it was +37% or something, i was just following up on that.

so your copyright is void since i took the patent on it last night.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

More evidence they might be on the ropes...

Nasdaq CEO Suggests Halt to Trading to Allow Investors to ‘Recalibrate Their Positions’ After GameStop Surge

Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman suggested Wednesday that her exchange could halt trading activity for stocks, in the event they were targeted by internet users, to enable the exchange to investigate possible manipulation and allow investors to “recalibrate.”

She made the comment in a morning interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernen, speaking in reference to price surges inspired by Reddit users. Members of the website’s “WallStreetBets” forum caused stock prices to surge to obscene heights this week for companies including GameStop and AMC Theatres.

“I think that, in general, when we evaluate how we would manage through a situation where you see a significant run-up in a stock not based on news, not based on fundamentals — what we do is we do have technology that evaluates social media chatter. If we see a significant rise in the chatter on social media channels … we also match that up against unusual trading activity, [and] potentially halt that stock to allow ourselves to investigate the situation, to be able to engage with the company, and to give investors a chance to recalibrate their positions.”

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nasdaq-ceo-suggests-halt-to-trading-to-allow-big-investors-to-recalibrate-their-positions-to-combat-reddit-users/

Clearly not all investors.  Maybe "mates" would be a better word?

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think this could suck a lot of liquidity out of things

I don't think this was the kind of velocity of money TPTB were thinking of when they printed!

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

I don't think this was the kind of velocity of money TPTB were thinking of when they printed!

I know but we were all talking about this new QE / stimulus going to the people not the bankers this time