Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

CGT isnt it? 

Would you pay CGT on financial spread betting profits?

[MvR]

1 hour ago, MvR said:

I also like and have learned a lot from Ron Bertino's  https://university.tradingdominion.com  

to add, there's a review of Ron's course here : -

Funny thing is, there's something about that photo of him that screams "Psychopathic YouTube scammer" at least to me.  But once you see him presenting his actual course he comes across as the exact opposite.. a deeply likeable, maybe on-the-spectrum guy who loves nothing more than explaining his passion in comprehensive detail. 

 

 

[planit]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ive tried finding the options thread on here but no luck. 

 

Can any of the options boys share which service they use for trading?

 

Ive looked at interactive brokers and they look decent. 

 

Any others? 

I have been catching up on reading, there are so many posts at the moment I am having trouble keeping up.

Funnily enough I came to a decision on Interactive Brokers a week a go after my research and completed my application this morning.

Thanks also to @sancho panza and @MvR for their comments, good to know they are recommended on here too. 

 

23 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Someone with balls of steel will make a fortune shorting it, just not me

Another coincidence, I decided to short Tesla yesterday afternoon for the smallest amount IG would allow.

My goal was just to have shorted Tesla without losing money.

Managed to come away with £2.88 . Just need to keep away from Tesla now, they just seem so ridiculously high 

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, planit said:

Another coincidence, I decided to short Tesla yesterday afternoon for the smallest amount IG would allow.

My goal was just to have shorted Tesla without losing money.

Managed to come away with £2.88 . Just need to keep away from Tesla now, they just seem so ridiculously high 

I remember reading that it was recently possible to borrow money to get into all this shorting malarkey, and people lost an absolute fortune of other peoples money.

Would be an idea for someone who is looking to leave the country shortly and has no fixed assets ... could result in a heads i win, tails i lost your money scenario .. if anyone can point me in the direction of this it'd be interesting!

[ThoughtCriminal]

44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Would you pay CGT on financial spread betting profits?

As far as im aware, spread betting carries no tax liability with it as its considered gambling. 

 

The irony. 

[Loki]

53 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I remember reading that it was recently possible to borrow money to get into all this shorting malarkey, and people lost an absolute fortune of other peoples money.

Would be an idea for someone who is looking to leave the country shortly and has no fixed assets ... could result in a heads i win, tails i lost your money scenario .. if anyone can point me in the direction of this it'd be interesting!

Trading 212 and a credit card is all you'd need, sell CFDs

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

Trading 212 and a credit card is all you'd need, sell CFDs

Do they lend me money though, as opposed to a credit card company.

Id be looking to use 5/6 figures.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Do they lend me money though, as opposed to a credit card company.

Id be looking to use 5/6 figures.

You'd be buying margin with credit.  So yes if you have even a moderate credit card limit.   

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Options. I'm intrigued. If you hold shares in an HL account. Is it not possible to put you're shares up for the option to sell?

If not, what is the best platform to buy/hold shares in which allows the options scenario.

Thanks for any help, apologies, not really the thread theme.

IB. You have to opt in. They lend out to whoever wants to short them. Split the fee 50:50.

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

You'd be buying margin with credit.  So yes if you have even a moderate credit card limit.   

Cheers i'll PM you for an education nearer the time!

[Castlevania]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Do they lend me money though, as opposed to a credit card company.

Id be looking to use 5/6 figures.

Be very careful. All the bucket shops have a load of made up fees that will slowly bleed you dry.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Be very careful. All the bucket shops have a load of made up fees that will slowly bleed you dry.

I don't think he's too worried about that 

[Hancock]

Can't be long until airlines/airports start going bust, if this chart showing Heathrow flight levels is accurate.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Can't be long until airlines/airports start going bust, if this chart showing Heathrow flight levels is accurate.

IAG opened another £1billion credit line today.

[Loki]

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

[Hancock]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

IAG opened another £1billion credit line today.

I saw they reported a £3 billion loss earlier today ... at some point an Asian is going to open an airline which will have no pension liabilities or debt that IAG has, thus having the ability to undercut them by some distance ... same applies for the other European national carriers.

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

Does he get credit for this one also!

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Does he get credit for this one also!

 

I had to pull up an oil chart...yeah.  I suppose it depends if he called Aug 21 as a buy. I had a quick squizz and didn't see anything

depe

 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

IB. You have to opt in. They lend out to whoever wants to short them. Split the fee 50:50.

Or buy an ETF with a low change, they'll be doing this to subsidize their fees/keep them low...nothing like a bit of counterparty risk in your `safe` passive ETF :-)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

What was his airline call?...any sources anyone?

[Hardhat]

34 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

What was his airline call?...any sources anyone?

 

[Boon]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

I saw they reported a £3 billion loss earlier today ... at some point an Asian is going to open an airline which will have no pension liabilities or debt that IAG has, thus having the ability to undercut them by some distance ... same applies for the other European national carriers.

Notably, the stock market reaction was good though, a 3bn loss sounds bad but with cash of over double that, it isn't going to go bust any time soon.

However, barriers to entry are a bit different in this business. Some of the middle eastern airlines undercut and offer a better product, but if you cannot get any of the prime slots, how will they get into the market? That means flying indirect, which only works for some destinations. 

Not joining an alliance brings on other costs such as lounges and reduces value to customers by selling connections.... but if they do join it then cut-throat competition isn't going to be allowed.

If you were to open an airline from scratch to try and out-compete IAG/KLM/Air France then they would quickly accrue pretty much the same debt or worse - that was Norwegian. 

[Option5]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

What was his airline call?...any sources anyone?

Laker Airways? 

[Castlevania]

Air France KLM got a huge bailout (Covid support) from the Dutch and French government. I think Lufthansa did too from Germany. As an upstart it’s not a level playing field.

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

David is a superb macro strategist,and i know most of the tools he uses,he was given them at Fidelity,but he didnt stay in the macro team and was only a junior,he moved on to manage pension funds for them.His real strength is Fed policy and leads and lags.He will always be pushing his roadmap out to try to see what he thinks will happen then the cross market work of who might gain.He thinks oil has topped so he thinks airlines will gain.At Fidelity he would pass the macro work to the equity team and they would decide.They might then pick their favourite airline stocks,but that doesnt say they would sell oil stocks,they might sell smaller ones and up bigger ones,expecting a lower prices to slow drilling etc.For Twitter Dave is doing his job ,but also stretched to others.He has every right to,and is really showing the process.I can tell you now his roadmap wont have a date on,only where the macro points to it going,not when.His old bosses mantra was it will go where its going in its own time.Where its going not when is the key.

The team at Fidelity were the best equity team of all time,and probably the only ones to use macro strategy as the foundation to their investing.Nobody does it now,they are all too short term hence the rise of Vanguard etc,something i think is about to reverse.