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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, spygirl said:



IMF tells the Bank of England not to delay raising interest rates

Fund warns in annual review that demand in the UK economy is too strong and inflation will rise to about 5.5%

https://www.ft.com/content/ca15ce59-ca72-497c-bf7a-c1482d972f01

 

And all that being nice to singe parents on 2k/m bennies, and 15m-20m low paid, barely working migrants, using ~30k of public services a years.

Poof - out of the window.

The only silver lining with higher rates is that UKGV is pissing so much money way on propping lazy native bennie class and migrants thats theres a lot of fat to be cut first.

 

 

 
Additionlly the IMF warns the UK may have to bring back the furlough scheme amid the Omicron threat! :o
 

giphy.gif

 

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stoobs

stoobs

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, macca said:

If your double jabbed and someone in your house gets Covid you don't need to isolate?

Even though jabs don't stop you spreading Covid. Are the British population this thick! 

Most deaths are vaccinated people.. 

I agree with you on the isolation rules, they don’t stand up to scrutiny.

But for the deaths figures, it is just that the vaccinated population is much larger than the unvaccinated population.

If you roll 95 red dice and 5 blue dice, you would expect far more red sixes than blue sixes. If you’re getting less than 19 times more red sixes than blue sixes then you’d assume something was different between the red and blue dice, such as the red dice have been modified to reduce their chance of landing on a six.

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XswampyX

XswampyX

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, stoobs said:

I agree with you on the isolation rules, they don’t stand up to scrutiny.

But for the deaths figures, it is just that the vaccinated population is much larger than the unvaccinated population.

If you roll 95 red dice and 5 blue dice, you would expect far more red sixes than blue sixes. If you’re getting less than 19 times more red sixes than blue sixes then you’d assume something was different between the red and blue dice, such as the red dice have been modified to reduce their chance of landing on a six.

I like your analogy. Red dice & blue dice...

After fiddling with your red dice for two years you are back exactly where you started.

The last TWO years have been a complete waste of time and effort as we now enter winter with a new strain that nobody has any immunity to.

Fiddle, fiddle.... Clickety click click.

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stoobs

stoobs

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

After fiddling with your red dice for two years you are back exactly where you started.

The last TWO years have been a complete waste of time and effort as we now enter winter with a new strain that nobody has any immunity to.

Quite possibly, yes.

It looks like Omicron is becoming the dominant strain in the UK around about now, then add 3 weeks for those infections to result in deaths, then another few weeks for clear indication in the weekly summaries.

So maybe in late January we’ll learn whether the current vaccines improve your chance of being alive to ever see another BoE interest rate rise.

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XswampyX

XswampyX

Posted
Posted
Just now, stoobs said:

So maybe in late January we’ll learn whether the current vaccines improve your chance of being alive to ever see another BoE interest rate rise.

xD

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Actually this one:

(I will have a look at your notes though)

Good video, but its title/thesis is to prescriptive imho. The presenter criticises government for undermining the workings of free markets, and which are fundamental for capitalism to function. Although I'd agree with that statement, I think the more general but crucial point is that the larger the state becomes, the more centralised/inefficient decision making becomes, and the more it diminishes the free markets and capitalism. At what stress point capitalism is caused to 'break' I couldn't say.                                                                                              Plus the US, of all places, has been manipulating markets for a long time... And not only its financial markets, for example back in early 80's it bailed out Chrysler with a massive 20 year interest free loan... It seems the car company was too big to fail!!

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Lightscribe

Lightscribe

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I quoted a number of these scientists to my MP in the first half of 2020, signed the GBD, etc etc. He (Jeremy Hunt) engaged for a while, then dropped off and is now non responsive. The vast majority of them have no spine, and are just like Jim Cramer. Trend followers who blow like straws in the wind. Easy to capture. When the vaccine wind blew stronger, he went with that. Didn't even respond when I confronted him with the tortured kids in lockdown stories last week. Spineless. But it's all recorded, and I will publically shame and skewer him when the wind blows the other way, as it eventually will, and may have started with tonight's rebellion in Parliament. If every conscientious voter with a wayward MP did this, they might behave themselves and not let themselves be captured by whatever forces are behind all this craziness. If I had @DurhamBorn MP they'd be getting my full support instead.

 

What the most ironic thing to stand out for me was that the Labour MP majority was whipped into the party line by Mr.Trilateral Commission member globalist Kier Starmer.

Literally a party with a history that’s supposed to be representing the common man (yes I know benefit brigade now) fully behind governmental totalitarian facist restrictions in the name of corporate pharma, if that’s not a definition of clown world, I don’t know what is!

The moral compass polarity of what made up the left wing/right wing in 80’s have flipped and I can’t understand why no one else can see it.

A den of vipers and sheep, that’s what makes up our House of Commons.

I would have never thought I’d long for the day that independent Jeremy Corbyn, flatly against all discrimination and measures to have won the general election. I suspect he is one of a genuine few that knows fully well whats going on, which would explain why he had to be ousted under the circumstances that he was.

Sometimes I feel I must of accidentally eaten a funny mushroom (like the ones  @nirvana likes) and I’ve been transported to this clown dimension. I’m ready to go home now….

17CB0058-9C91-49D4-95ED-E2F63528BC3B.thumb.jpeg.053d8a9ef27d0fe470368d99a04798d8.jpeg

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

haven't done shrooms for a long long time, keep looking for em though lol

my recs, take the chill pills, watch some movies....both The Last Duel & Shang-Chi and the legend of the 10 rings go on for bl00dy ages........buy some crypto on the dip if you're feeling brave :P

And don't forget to talk to the animals :D

bon courage!

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Chewing Grass

Chewing Grass

Posted
Posted

HMRC got their letters out early this year for end of January with bumper payments on account forecast, as far as they are concerned everyone will be earnings pots of cash next year.

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

RPI 7.1% ,my roadmap had it at 6.8% from the day this thread started this far along,very pleased with that work.8% price increases for BT etc.

Nice one mate

29 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

HMRC got their letters out early this year for end of January with bumper payments on account forecast, as far as they are concerned everyone will be earnings pots of cash next year.

SEISS bumped my return up too

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jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I quoted a number of these scientists to my MP in the first half of 2020, signed the GBD, etc etc. He (Jeremy Hunt) engaged for a while, then dropped off and is now non responsive. The vast majority of them have no spine, and are just like Jim Cramer. Trend followers who blow like straws in the wind. Easy to capture. When the vaccine wind blew stronger, he went with that. Didn't even respond when I confronted him with the tortured kids in lockdown stories last week. Spineless. But it's all recorded, and I will publically shame and skewer him when the wind blows the other way, as it eventually will, and may have started with tonight's rebellion in Parliament. If every conscientious voter with a wayward MP did this, they might behave themselves and not let themselves be captured by whatever forces are behind all this craziness. If I had @DurhamBorn MP they'd be getting my full support instead.

 

They'll just ignore you unless you can find a way to make common cause on issues of freedom with those whose politics you otherwise disagree with. Until then, it's same old Culture War, and the elites get to continue their factional fight over whose authoriansim "wins" for as long as the great unwashed are fighting tooth and nail over different aspects of "freedom".

Vaccine passports, compulsory vaccination, voter ID, right to protest, judicial review - they should all be the same fight. The fact that it isn't is how they win.

 

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted

Sold out a bit more today...20% up overall heading down to 10% up overall ( + dividends to come ), should have sold out when my SIPP starting looking amazing.

Cant see any big moves up in the next 3 months so low risk selling and holding.

Dont see how the US/UK can look through inflation now, but they'll try.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I know a few on here were following WICAO's blog, he's done an update and still in Oz

https://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2021/12/transitioning-musings-on-2021.html#more

'My COVID-19 coping mechanism is to minimise my contact with those selling fear, notably the ‘news’, which has resulted in a significant improvement in my wellbeing".

Amen bro! :Beer:

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

RPI 7.1% ,my roadmap had it at 6.8% from the day this thread started this far along,very pleased with that work.8% price increases for BT etc.

Hi DB,

When your roadmap said 6.8% inflation, what did it have down for IRs at that time ?

 

What's your guess for tomorrow's MPC meeting ?

Even if they raise IRs to 0.25% it wont make any difference to anything, so they might well do that now, things seem to be moving fast and maybe they think a warning shot has to be fired.

IIRC today is the last day of the QE bond buying crime, which is probably significant.

The US fed is the interesting one for me now, I dont see how they cannot now act.

Of course, they could all be just criminals who want 50% inflation.

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