Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The first lesson would be he doesn’t need £50k a year to retire on. 

My IFA asked how much I needed to live on….the answer after years of contemplating and carefully calculating a figure was ‘that depends’.

So many people have a set figure which isn’t really calculated but more a perception of what ‘people like them need’.😉

100%.  Those rough estimates they come up with like "the square root of your age when you lost your virginity" are so BS and for the lazy.  I just sat down and worked it out, starting with 5 or so years spending data, duly adjusted.  That was the easy part.  The harder bit was deciding on which option versus the associated investment risk.

[Lightscribe]

44 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Good time for a tomato update.

These are the San Marzano that I grew from seed for my pizza sauce. First hand of flowers are just starting to come out.

Mine are a bit smaller than yours (obviously I don’t say that very often ) due to the planted time difference, but are still coming along nicely. Lidls tomato’s for the win.   

I’ll separate them when they get a bit bigger.

 

[M S E Refugee]

EU eyes gas-price cap – media https://www.rt.com/business/555486-eu-gas-price-cap-russia/

[Pip321]

22 minutes ago, Harley said:

My various work pensions made naff all, ever.  They went up more due to my contributions than anything else.  A SIPP and ISA is so easy and far cheaper and you can do like for like if you must.  I never stopped to think how bad it could still be for me.

But with all these inflation related comments, I've only realised how frugal my partner and I are.  Not frugal in the sense of not doing stuff, although we don't need to spend money on feel good palliatives, but in doing similar things cheaper. 

Couldn’t agree more. Pre covid we went to Florence and it was a beautiful 10 days, near the centre in an old terrace mansion with inner courtyard. Er…massive room but shabby chic shall we say.
Very self catering and about £480 for the stay…and we had cereal in the morning from the super market (keep ya regular), pastries for lunch with coffees and a casual but nice meal out each evening for around £30. We don’t drink a lot I guess that keeps costs down. 

We met the hotel owners and their family, spent 3 nights in the court yard with impromptu cooked meals by the owners where we all chipped in £10…and brought our own beer  

A friend went and stayed in a £1000 a night swanky hotel and said that’s the only way to holiday….kinda missing the point but each to their own. He said his holiday was a different class, and I agree 😉

Hundreds and hundreds of examples, life experiences and holidays where the best bits have been almost free.

I have to admit it is nice to be able to choose to live frugally (or quite basically) and really appreciate and enjoy the little things…but I guess it doesn’t seem as much fun when you don’t have the choice.  

[Shamone]

46 minutes ago, Harley said:

100%.  Those rough estimates they come up with like "the square root of your age when you lost your virginity" are so BS and for the lazy.  I just sat down and worked it out, starting with 5 or so years spending data, duly adjusted.  That was the easy part.  The harder bit was deciding on which option versus the associated investment risk.

I did it for my parents 20 years ago. 

[M S E Refugee]

Just watched an online Watch auction today and prices look to have fallen significantly.

I wonder if this could be a Canary in the Coal Mine.

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

100%.  Those rough estimates they come up with like "the square root of your age when you lost your virginity" are so BS and for the lazy.  I just sat down and worked it out, starting with 5 or so years spending data, duly adjusted.  That was the easy part.  The harder bit was deciding on which option versus the associated investment risk.

I think for a lot of middle class people they need the 50 k for their lifestyle and their kids.

I'm always amazed when people admit they still pay for things for their adult kids. Not birthday gifts, I mean things like their mobile phone subscriptions, holidays, car payments, etc apparently private school fees are rarely paid by British parents, it's mainly grandparents

This is probably the last mass generation that has sufficient pension and housing wealth for the middle classes to do that to this extent

[dnb24]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Just watched an online Watch auction today and prices look to have fallen significantly.

WOK? Did see some passes on things like a heurer bund at 3k- 2 years ago that would have sold easily even if incorrect

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

WOK? Did see some passes on things like a heurer bund at 3k- 2 years ago that would have sold easily even if incorrect

Yes it was WOK, I do fancy a Heuer Bundeswehr, maybe I will buy one eventually for under £2000.

The Rolex Pepsi would have gone for over 5 figures a few months ago.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

"UAE Telecom Firm e& Pays $4.4 Billion for 9.8% Stake in Vodafone"

...Another box ticked for @DurhamBorn

 

HA-ha...typical as i was going to buy my last ladder in VOD on thursday while buying my last ladder in abrdn as it did a 'double bottom' @at 1.79 on the 1 year chart, ...anyways... but being a tight-wad, NO i thought i'd wait for the VOD yellow sticker price of 103 DUH!

 

Expect VOD to ROCKET on mondays opening!!! 

 

[Sasquatch]

Good day today. Did some chainsaw work and log splitting. We've had a couple of large branches taken off one of our ash trees and I wanted to get stuck into the timber before it starts to dry out. Recently bought a corded electric chainsaw and I'm genuinely surprised at how good it is. An Oregon machine, only £125. Not sure if it will last the distance but it seems gets the job done. It was cutting through some decent sized logs with relative ease and compared favourably to my previous petrol powered Husqvarna. 

Also got to use my new DeWalt axe. Another decent bit of kit.

Some very useful firewood set aside for the winter and a nice work out as well. Probably two more sessions before all of the wood is processed. I then need to build a couple of wood sheds........ There are always jobs to do.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"UAE Telecom Firm e& Pays $4.4 Billion for 9.8% Stake in Vodafone"

...Another box ticked for @DurhamBorn

 

HA-ha...typical as i was going to buy my last ladder in VOD on thursday while buying my last ladder in abrdn as it did a 'double bottom' @at 1.79 on the 1 year chart, ...anyways... but being a tight-wad, NO i thought i'd wait for the VOD yellow sticker price of 103 DUH!

 

Expect VOD to ROCKET on mondays opening!!! 

 

Bollocks. I did manage to buy HL. and Abdn and I was waiting for 112p ish on Friday for Vodafone  

Will see what it does Monday….this stock market malarkey isn’t always as rationale as I might expect.

I will set a price around 122p ish but if it flies I will probably wait for people to get bored and forget what the reason was for the uplift in share price and try snag them 3 weeks later if they fall back. Literally it seems that is what sometimes happens 😂😂

 

[Loki]

Just an observation, pubs/town centres looked as busy tonight as any other time i can remember 

[M S E Refugee]

17 minutes ago, Loki said:

Just an observation, pubs/town centres looked as busy tonight as any other time i can remember 

I do think that many people have an inkling somethings not right but are hoping that things turn out okay.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Shamone said:

Love it that you put MSG in it.

Gives the taste,i get it from Chinese supermarkets.Millenials say its poison but they are tossers,i worked in pharma,very safe molecule

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, Pip321 said:

The first lesson would be he doesn’t need £50k a year to retire on. 

My IFA asked how much I needed to live on….the answer after years of contemplating and carefully calculating a figure was ‘that depends’.

So many people have a set figure which isn’t really calculated but more a perception of what ‘people like them need’.😉

£9k i could retire on.Lurcher,gun etc.Thats 3x what i lived on in the late 80s in my home town.I prefer £17k,but if it come to it id still be doing sod all on £9k.I prefer to keep fit instead.I still think i could kill 95% of people if they went for my family.I like that fact.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think for a lot of middle class people they need the 50 k for their lifestyle and their kids.

I'm always amazed when people admit they still pay for things for their adult kids. Not birthday gifts, I mean things like their mobile phone subscriptions, holidays, car payments, etc apparently private school fees are rarely paid by British parents, it's mainly grandparents

This is probably the last mass generation that has sufficient pension and housing wealth for the middle classes to do that to this extent

I think even people us, hard nosed cynical realists that we are, don't even fully appreciate that Gen X is probably going to be the last to have the affluent western lifestyle: nice car, nice house, regular holidays etc etc.

 

I just don't see 99% of millennials and zoomers buying houses, changing cars every few years and 2-3 holidays.

 

As with every phase in history, people thought this was forever.

[jamtomorrow]

Been wondering when pols would realise there's almost unlimited mileage in throwing CBs under the bus ...

[BurntBread]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Gives the taste,i get it from Chinese supermarkets.Millenials say its poison but they are tossers,i worked in pharma,very safe molecule

It's the food ingredient that has had the most safety assessments done on it, just because it has somehow acquired bad publicity. If you put salt on tomatoes (which are rich in glutamic acid), then you end up with MSG (in solution, as it always is). I even think green tea has a fair amount of glutamic acid. It's harmless, and one of the conditionally essential amino acids (you need it, and can't always synthesise enough from other sources). I'm sure some people can get headaches or whatever from the taste, but then people can get headaches from almost anything.

Unrelated, but I used to work with some people who did research on microwaves for food processing (monomodal cavities, susceptor packaging, that sort of thing). During the 70's and 80's, they were part of a research team that spent its whole time investigating the safety of microwave ovens. Not whether you would get burned, cause sparks, or make your coffee boil over, but purely because there was a media panic that this new microwave cooking technology turns food into something strange and dangerous in some (unspecified) way. It's a bit hard to prove a negative, but the team was basically set up to show that food cooked in a microwave is chemically the same (other than non-uniformity of heating) to food cooked in other ways. Huge expense to prove something that is (almost*) obvious, and all because of a media frenzy.

Now we just inject new medical technologies into children with no long-term safety data and without a risk/benefit analysis, because, well, why the hell not?

 

* I have heard there is some evidence that you can make roux slightly more quickly in a microwave oven than you would expect just from the heating rate, but I don't remember the details. Anyway, we didn't all die from microwaving our cold coffee.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Been wondering when pols would realise there's almost unlimited mileage in throwing CBs under the bus ...

Yep the spineless tossers have seen what's going on in Sri Lanka and shit themselves.

They were all good buddies when the money was being dished out before and during the plandemic now thats finished and their staring down a black hole they are turning on their own.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Been wondering when pols would realise there's almost unlimited mileage in throwing CBs under the bus ...

My tweets are having some effect at last 🤣🤣🤣

[Democorruptcy]

On 24/04/2022 at 22:51, Chewing Grass said:

You just prompted me to look at something I've known about for the last 25 years due to my passing interest in Geology and old maps.

Parys Mountain in Anglesey, Wales sits on top of the biggest Copper, Silver and Gold deposit in the UK, this sucker is huge and deep with the Victorian miners only scratching the surface with their tech.

You also get cheaper metals Zinc & Lead as a by-product.

Interestingly they have just listed on AIM.

https://www.angleseymining.co.uk/parys-mountain/

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-fundamentals.asp?shareprice=AYM

I got talking to a chap with a drone recently and suggested some places he could film. One was Parys Mountain and he obviously went! Porth Wen is another of my regular walks, I was there when he shot that bit and was impressed when he took his drone through the rusty drum!

@Transistor Manmight be interested.

 

[Pip321]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

£9k i could retire on.Lurcher,gun etc.Thats 3x what i lived on in the late 80s in my home town.I prefer £17k,but if it come to it id still be doing sod all on £9k.I prefer to keep fit instead.I still think i could kill 95% of people if they went for my family.I like that fact.

Super answer.
I think I know why you don’t use an IFA. 

IFA in response to your statement above “Thanks Mr Born, I think I will tick the £15k to £20k box if that’s okay.  We will get to the ‘what % of people could you kill section’ once I just finish some further details on your existing financial arrangements and family commitments” 😆😆

[BurntBread]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I got talking to a chap with a drone recently and suggested some places he could film. One was Parys Mountain and he obviously went! Porth Wen is another of my regular walks, I was there when he shot that bit and was impressed when he took his drone through the rusty drum!

@Transistor Manmight be interested.

 

That's absolutely awesome: you should put it on the "favourite youtube videos" thread, as well! What's the water like for swimming around there?

[It also helps that I bought a tiny bit of Anglesey Mining PLC, so I can now see what I own ... I think it's that reddish-brown pebble at bottom right].

[Pip321]

This thread seems to be missing the biggest fundament world issue which now makes complete sense to the Russia/Ukraine invasion.

So yesterday it was clear for us all to see. The UK comes 2nd in the Eurovision to be pipped by Ukraine….Putins plan of Supporting Ukraines desire to win the Eurovision is now clear for us all to see 

The US gained huge financial rewards (allegedly) from Afghan and Iraq ‘incursions’…and that’s fair enough. Neither of those countries are involved with the Eurovision, so at least underlying objectives of maybe a million deaths is purely financial.

I will knock up a ‘Just Giving’ page later and get you guys onboard. 

Clear and simple, let’s not interfere with the great Eurovision Song Contest renowned for its impartial standards and quality cutting edge musical artists.