Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dont worry about antibiotics,iv got a huge stash of the best ones in the world (Fortum) enough for you all, i used to make it.Funny enough the active in it is worth more than gold weight for weight 

Iv also got a stash of Durex Joy Jelly Lube,i used to make that as well,the stash went down regular years ago,but not so much now 

Can you get any Erythromicin? I've finally found one I can take.

[WICAO]

12 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Theres a sutle difference though.

If you already have a million, a 10% haircut still leaves you nice big cash pot of 900K.

If you have 5k, then it doesnt really make much difference if you lose 500.

Its all relative to when you are on the graph... For most a 500 punt is worth the gamble.

You're right that 500 probably won't make much difference but the wrong mindset will certainly affect a financial future.

[23rdian]

34 minutes ago, Hancock said:

M stupidity may have cost 9 days work (if i sell now), far more than a fancy steak dinner but not enough to bankrupt me. 

Its enough to realise sleeping soundly, is far more important than making a few grand.

Jumping in when everything was imploding in 2020 worked out very well for me, as i couldn't have cared less when i was deep underwater as i knew it'd just be a short term measure ... Putin shares are a whole different ballgame as those 9 days work could still be added to. 

Live and learn.

 

Swings and roundabouts. You got risk some just to stay still these days. It's gonna get eaten by inflation anyway in cash. Shockingly easy to throw money at things when you not seeing the actual notes though. 

[WICAO]

11 minutes ago, Kilham said:

The difference between gambling and investing is simply information, the current situation makes it difficult to extract from all the noise.

I'm not so sure.  Do you maybe mean gambling and trading?

I have educated myself but have no information and feel like I'm doing ok.  I call myself an investor.

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Housing, that's the only one way bet.....

My thoughts now are its better to have a house to pass on, than some shares.

In hindsight it'd have been the best place to stick money from 2020, when rent is considered.

[DoINeedOne]

Maybe others are gambling but we all invest in different ways, POLY is not even 3% of my net worth

And my rules are i allow 10% for speculation or lets say a gamble but even that 10% can't just be one thing

 

 

 

 

[23rdian]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The person buying shares in Russia at a time of war for a quick win is gambling; but if he chose to put the same sum in a FTSE tracker for a decade, its less akin to gambling. 

Do both. They are not mutually exclusive

[WICAO]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I'm risk averse and dont like to gamble but I feel my hand has been forced by Sunak and the central bankers, it's maybe what they want, but right now it looks like the only play in town to me to get into commodities, real stuff that people need.

I shorted the shares below though, for a bit of fun/leaning experience and I'd say that was a gamble, but I like to think it's an educated guess that housing bubble has peaked after IRs starting rising, Term Funding was cut, Stamp Duty holiday gone and the UKPropertyLion showing listing volumes having collapsed, that alone should take down RM and Savills.

The property shorts have covered my POLY losses that I held and will continue to hold, fully expecting them to go to 0.

The APPLE short was just because the NASDAW shares look bat shit crazy and a lot of them started falling, that and people I know actively saying how mental the price of an i-phone is.

You cant win them all so you need to be as diverse as you can but there's no point diversifying into sectors that look like an insane bubble, that in itself is a gamble.  
 

How many people get caught out investing in some large fund only to find out the fund's a bit of a scam and they lock out the investors.

Then look at P2P, that was a gamble too.

Housing, that's the only one way bet.....

What are you gambling for?  If it's for fun then fair enough.  If it's for your financial future do you really think you're going to be able to gamble your way to a financial future.  How many bets do you have to win to achieve the goal and then importantly once you achieve it how are you going to hang on to it?  What do you know that millions of others, including many who are closer to the important information than you are, don't?

Blaming Sunak et al is playing the victim.  There's always a reason something isn't going to work out.  The global markets have seen it all before - wars, depressions, inflation, deflation...

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The number of posts here are correlated to big news in the markets. The West weaponising the financial markets due to the first war in Europe for years is quite big to be fair. One way to cut the number of posts is to put on 'ignore' those people classed as "gamblers".

I see this place as (in part) a "thinkubator".  I don't expect it to be boring (I can do that fine) but I like it to stimulate my thinking.  Other reasons to be here too, not pizza though (too many carbs).

[Red Debt Redemption]

30 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The person buying shares in Russia at a time of war for a quick win is gambling; but if he chose to put the same sum in a FTSE tracker for a decade, its less akin to gambling. 

Careful now you'll be asking Evraz for a steel shovel next. 

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Swings and roundabouts. You got risk some just to stay still these days. It's gonna get eaten by inflation anyway in cash. Shockingly easy to throw money at things when you not seeing the actual notes though. 

I get paid a large amount of money for my day rate, as i invested money in some equipment that i rent out alongside myself.  

Hence the only risk i really need to take is either driving to a work site or getting on a helicopter.

Shares spoken about on here that are in my SIPP will be there for the long haul, but i just see it being easier to go to work for 30-50 days a year. Or to invest in more equipment to rent out, as opposed to being a trader!

[belfastchild]

Just now, Red Debt Redemption said:

Careful now you'll be asking Evraz for a steel shovel next. 

Can you recycle steel thats had depleted uranium put through it?

[Red Debt Redemption]

Just now, belfastchild said:

Can you recycle steel thats had depleted uranium put through it?

Digs holes twice as fast without wearing out Comrade.

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

I get paid a large amount of money for my day rate, as i invested money in some equipment that i rent out alongside myself.  

 

I have a very strict definition of what I class as investing. Anything that improves me, my ability to earn money, my environment and stuff I can hold in my hand is investing and only when I own it 100%.

Everything else is gambling. Everything else can be taken away by someone else without my knowledge, everything in the line above would usually be taken away at gunpoint/health.

[Harley]

21 minutes ago, Kilham said:

The difference between gambling and investing is simply information, the current situation makes it difficult to extract from all the noise.

That's not the case for me given my approach and the timelines.  For equities, I aim to buy relatively cheap but solid income generators that are about to turn, plus a few macro growth plays.  So a traders mindset for a value/trend portfolio.  I look wide so there is always something, more recently, but always something.  Ukraine, etc are usually just noise in that (as here now) the trends were already in place.  Mainly price trends but I could expand that to the other financial affecting trends like stealing all our money!

[HousePriceMania]

Can I be in the gang ?

 

Full disclosure, I have some Poly that I bought at 1050 ish.

I have an order in for £200 at 350.

it does feel like a gamble, lets see if Putin is mad and if laddering works when a share is put under considerable stress from external forces.

 

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Can you recycle steel thats had depleted uranium put through it?

Best one is Cobalt60 as steel likes Cobalt.

Apparently it is possibly good for you.

Circa 1983, construction was finished of 1700 apartments in Taiwan which were built with steel contaminated with cobalt-60. Approximately 10,000 people occupied these buildings during a 9–20 year period. On average, these people unknowingly received a radiation dose of 0.4 Sv. This large group did not suffer a higher incidence of cancer mortality, as the linear no-threshold model would predict, but suffered a lower cancer mortality than the general Taiwan public. These observations appear to be compatible with the radiation hormesis model.

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I get paid a large amount of money for my day rate, as i invested money in some equipment that i rent out alongside myself.  

Hence the only risk i really need to take is either driving to a work site or getting on a helicopter.

Shares spoken about on here that are in my SIPP will be there for the long haul, but i just see it being easier to go to work for 30-50 days a year. Or to invest in more equipment to rent out, as opposed to being a trader!

If it's in your SIPP, you're only losing the tax you'd have lost anyway.

I can lose 50% of the SIPP I started last year ( or was it the year before ) thanks to this thread and still be better off that paying Hector and that's before the dividends start rolling in.

So, am I gambling or playing the system ?

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

If it's in your SIPP, you're only losing the tax you'd have lost anyway.

 

If its in your isa, crystalise the losses, transfer to sipp and get the tax back.

[CVG]

47 minutes ago, WICAO said:

That's slowly starting to become something I'm thinking about as well.  Mrs WICAO is learning a bit but her heart really isn't in it so it's going to take a long time if we ever get there.

I'm hoping I can get her far enough that I can eventually write a small instruction manual that goes something like:

1. These are the accounts where all the money is.

2. Sell them all and put the funds into a at x, b at y and c at z.

3. Every month take whatever free cash is in these accounts.

4. Enjoy the rest of your life.

Right on cue, I got an answer from Vanguard about their allocations. I can't really complain as it was never likely that they would come up with something based on DOSBODs allocation. My wife wouldn't even log on, let alone balance out any portfolio once a year (doesn't even do online banking - I have to buy her knickers from M&S myself online!). I might just have to bite the bullet and hope that I'll mitigate possible losses by averaging in over a period of years. My only other hope is that interest rates rise and I can just buy a single long dated gilt to generate the necessary income.

 

"Thank you for getting in touch!

The LifeStrategy funds we offer on the UK platform are mutual funds structured as fund of funds. With this in mind, the LifeStrategy funds are sophisticated and combine multiple individual index funds into one fund portfolio, giving you access to thousands of shares and bonds in a single investment. This is therefore why the LifeStrategy fund has exposure to a wide range of countries and asset classes and further information on each LifeStrategy fund can be found in the 'Key Investor Information Document (KIID)' on the right-hand side of the fund's information page. 

It is worth noting that the LifeStrategy fund have a home bias to the UK for both the equity and bond portfolios, the remaining assets are then weighted according to the global market cap. LifeStrategy concept can be thought of as being based on market global cap with triple overweight of home country (UK) portion. The LifeStrategy funds are reviewed by an investment committee on an annual basis.

Further information can be found via the links below, including a KIID for one LifeStrategy fund.

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investing-explained/what-are-lifestrategy-funds

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/rs/gre/gls/1.3.0/documents/1277/gb

I hope this clarifies and is a useful guide."

[23rdian]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

If its in your isa, crystalise the losses, transfer to sipp and get the tax back.

That's quite good.

[Red Debt Redemption]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

If it's in your SIPP, you're only losing the tax you'd have lost anyway.

I can lose 50% of the SIPP I started last year ( or was it the year before ) thanks to this thread and still be better off that paying Hector and that's before the dividends start rolling in.

So, am I gambling or playing the system ?

 

[JMD]

56 minutes ago, Harley said:

A fair shout.  I like a bit of liveliness for what can get a bit dull (if done right!) but I always keep a sharp eye on the allocations by asset class, per holding, instrument, counterparty, etc.  So down 1.5% this last week but a lot less (pretty much zero) year to date and that's despite a few major changes (for the coming macro) and a fair Russian allocation (HK before that).

Have you sold your Hong Kong shares Harley? Not trying to pry, but as you've spoken in the past about them, I would be interested in why... China risk, divi witholding tax, etc?

[Green Devil]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Can I be in the gang ?

 

Full disclosure, I have some Poly that I bought at 1050 ish.

I have an order in for £200 at 350.

it does feel like a gamble, lets see if Putin is mad and if laddering works when a share is put under considerable stress from external forces.

 

Can I play too?

Bid 295p on 100 shares

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, WICAO said:

What are you gambling for?  If it's for fun then fair enough.  If it's for your financial future do you really think you're going to be able to gamble your way to a financial future.  How many bets do you have to win to achieve the goal and then importantly once you achieve it how are you going to hang on to it?  What do you know that millions of others, including many who are closer to the important information than you are, don't?

Blaming Sunak et al is playing the victim.  There's always a reason something isn't going to work out.  The global markets have seen it all before - wars, depressions, inflation, deflation...

The point I was trying to make is, it's a gamble not investing right now.  The rampant inflation and 0% IRs has impacted my retirement and financial security/planning much more than any lose on any shares I own could ever have.  Sunak and the central bankers are to blame for those, that is not playing the victim care, that's fact. I personally dont see them acting to bring down inflation any time soon so I am acting to protect myself.  Sunak is positioning himself to be PM, yet another ex-GS banker in a position of power.  Slightly worrying I'd say.

It would be unwise of me not to be moving money into shares give then evidence of my own eyes.

I have a clear plan in mind:

10% holding in shares

10% in PMs/Tangible assets.

15% in index linked bonds

5% in pensions

10% in foreign property

50% in UK property + 40% Mortgage debt.

When bond rates hit 10%+ start selling out shares and moving into bonds, that should give me a comfortable pension.

The main risk to my wealth is not the Russian Government, it's the British government.