Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

Their share price is going down.

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

It was reported they were unable to find a buyer for £5m of Rosneft but that's a not that big?

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm lloyds data says;

https://www.investments.lloydsbank.com/investment-trust-centre/details/GB0003165817/JE95

Top 10 Holdings

Top 10 Holdings

Security	Weight
Mec co	3.40%
Raito kogyo co	3.20%
Benefit one inc	3.00%
Taiyo yuden co	2.80%
Litalico inc	2.60%
Monogatari corp	2.50%
Iriso electronics co	2.30%
Visional inc	2.20%
Raksul inc	2.10%
Cosmos pharmaceutical corp	1.90%

No date? All the providers should date their lists, so people know which is closest to up to date.

[HousePriceMania]

Look on the bright side, PURPLE BRICKS is down 97% from peak and FOXTONS 92%

POLY seems a better bet than them.

[geordie_lurch]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

I bought them a few weeks ago so it's probably my fault

[Harley]

12 hours ago, wherebee said:

Back to the macro discussions:

GDXJ and PSLV both risen steadily all week.  PSLV looking the strongest for some time (I have it in my metals section as a long term hold; been in the red for a while).

Hard to say whether it's the war or the rotation into PMs, I suspect both.  I wish I had picked up more GDXJ (I sold a bunch at 46, picked up some again at 38).

I've sadly divested of almost all things Canadian and moved to alternatives.  Sprott is great but I don't trust those holding their metals (or rather those making up their rules).

[Harley]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I know most on this thread now prefer to put everything on red or black,but for those who are trying to build a diverse portfolio im going to start buying this Investment Trust.

JP Morgan Japan Small Cap Growth and Income Trust (JSGI) .

I really like Japan this cycle,and i havent really got around to investing in it.Iv decided this is a good place to start as it offers the quarterly divis.They pay 4% of assets pa and its trading at a 9% discount so roughly a 4.4% yield here.

Japan has had to become very very efficient due to a long deflation and China,but some inflation should help them.The downside is they have few natural resources so will be hit with commod/energy inflation,but should manage it better than most.

These investment trusts are becoming a bigger part of my portfolio,but still small.I intend to grow them.Im prepared to give up some returns to have more diverse regions in holdings.Il be looking for exposure to bigger Jap companies as well.

Specifically small company?

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Thanks for the recommendation, my work AVC scheme is being butchered in the name of social responsibility so I've finally plucked up the courage to transfer it out into a SIPP with my S&S ISA provider ii. Starting off with this one along with Henderson Far East, Murray Intl and Blackrock Latin America, along with a few chunks of hefty dividend shares. 

Are you watching the trusts' premiums and discounts?  Nothing better than buying into all those historic holdings at a discount!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

This is a long bow in ordinary times but given gofundme donors are domestic terrorists is it not possible that people buying Soviet linked shares could be singled out in the same way?

And China when that kicks off....and most other places as they lock us down.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

Apologies I’m a little old fashioned 

You're not alone.....

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, Metalheadz said:

Anyone buying/own something in Aluminium? I'm looking for something that hasn't already turned in to a meme stock 

(apologies in advance for mentioning something that isn't dropping 50% each day)

Yes, they have been popping up and are on my "unintended(?) consequences of sanctions" list.

[Calcutta]

My great plan to offset any gambling losses was to buy a load of Flutter. That's not going so well today. 

[Harley]

So people can buy Russian ADRs and GDRs on the LSE but non-residents can't buy or sell on the Moscow exchange?

[Democorruptcy]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

Report today

Abrdn's annual profit rose as the asset manager posted higher full-year revenue for the first time since it was formed from a merger in 2017.

Adjusted operating profit for the year to the end of December rose 47% to £323m as revenue increased to £1.52bn from £1.43bn. Pretax profit under IFRS accounting rules rose to £1.12bn from £838m.

Net outflows, excluding those from Lloyds Banking Group, were £3.2bn compared with £12.3bn a year earlier. Abrdn kept its annual dividend unchanged at 14.6p a share.

Abrdn was formed almost five years ago when Aberdeen Asset Management combined with Standard Life in a deal that combined two bastions of the Scottish financial sector. But Standard Life Aberdeen struggled as funds flowed out, including from a long-standing mandate with Lloyds's Scottish Widows arm.

Chief Executive Stephen Bird was hired in 2020 and in 2021 bought Interactive Investor for £1.5bn to tap the platform's 400,000 retail customers. He also renamed the group Abrdn in a move that attracted ridicule but which he says marks a break with the past and unifies the company's brand.

Bird said: "This was our reset year. In 2021 we set out a clear strategy for how we will create long-term sustainable growth and arrest the decline in revenue. For the first time since the merger, we have reported an increase in revenue for the full year."
 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

So people can buy Russian ADRs and GDRs on the LSE but non-residents can't buy or sell on the Moscow exchange?

Is there a major disconnect in prices between the two or can Russians buy here and repatriate the shares to pick up any arbitrage that develops? If banking is blocked then that might be blocked too.

[Joncrete Cungle]

The money I was tempted to gamble on Gazprom & Poly had gone into Aberdn and I managed to get some more BP at 351. Fair play to all those buying the Russian companies at these prices, but it's not for me. Decided to stick to my plan as war and more defence spending looks inflationary to a simpleton like me. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

Just seems like a binary bet. Double/treble/quadruple your money or lose it all to confiscation. Not really an investment. If the war finished and investment bridges with Russia aren't broken then there will likely be a risk weighting in the share prices of these companies for some time. I'm not increasing my meagre positions in these firms but I'm not realising losses either.

Could really do with knowing the outcome of the war before everyone else. Rothschild style. In fact was that the Crimean war where his messenger got back before official news?

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

Oops, I doubled down on the quote by mistake.

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

In other news EVRAZ is fine since its a uk co.

Fine if you like 80% loss that is.

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, NogintheNog said:

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

yeah i just fucked it off and sold it, wasnt much anyway cant be arsed with this shit so just decided to bite the bullet and simplify the portfolio, just that and gazprom are rusky linked luckily im spread far and wide like mr xyy's hair (and anus).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I'm not buying anything. Markets grinding down generally. I don't think they'll stop until there is news about the war moving to a close.

You can argue for South America and Japan. Also resource stocks based outside the West and Russia.

I'm keeping what I've got. The BK is possible now. US markets defied reason yesterday, IMO. If it collapses I'll buy. The money I have on the sidelines is for buying low. Prices marked down for risk. I don't know which risks will play out.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is there a major disconnect in prices between the two or can Russians buy here and repatriate the shares to pick up an arbitrage that develops? If banking is blocked then that might be blocked too.

There does seem to be a difference (in USD assuming I'm correctly using the TradingView currency feature):

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

I'm not sure if anyone on here has asked this question so here goes. If the big boys are holding massive loses, with other peoples money, I should imagine that they will be wanting a payday ( rise in the SP ) later on. Someone mentioned its a bit like BP, kept down but came back strong. so, if there is a peace settlement ( Russia , Ukraine) will that be the payday they are waiting for, and if so, I would assume the timescale would be years. Am I right in thinking this is what will happen ?

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

Gazprom/Poly/co are either the best or worst investments going ATM.  Pure gambling.  If it works out your looking at a solid dividend paying stock at an insanely cheap price.  Or £0.  

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

So what are you thinking, that BP whilst being seen to do the right thing are 'playing the long game' regarding Russia, and thinking that 'favours' will be repaid in the future?...i

Probably not, although its a big club and i'm not in it.  Plenty of 3rd rate MP's (looking at you Miliband) were agitating for something to be done, then something happened and it actually helped Putin.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

There does seem to be a difference (assuming I'm correctly using the TradingView currency feature):

OGZD is two shares isn't it? If I'm reading your graph correctly then it is a massive difference. In a rush, will check later.

[jamtomorrow]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

There does seem to be a difference (assuming I'm correctly using the TradingView currency feature):

Pardon my ignorance, but who typically acts as the intermediary on an ADR? If I buy a Gazprom ADR on the LSE, who is my counterparty for matching that purchase on the MCX and are *they* now at risk? Seems whoever that is now has a whole pile of liabilities on the LSE in the form of ADRs, while the "real" instruments on the MSE are now inaccessible to the intermediary (since CBR barred foreign entities). 

Or is an ADR now effectively a bet that the situation will unwind somehow?