Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I am shocked. Shocked, I tell thee.

Bank of England rate hike supporter gets Omicron jitters as firms face 'strongest inflation pressures for 23 years' | Business News | Sky News

It's as though a reason for not hiking rates (other than world-crippling debt costs) was needed.

Confusing isn't it?

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Shell pulls out of Cambo oil field development - BBC News

Is it only me that gets depressed by these responses to the 2 top comments:

 

It sums up the level of debate over the last 5 years.  When will we ever move on?

[ThoughtCriminal]

19 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Confusing isn't it?

 

Covid is just a pretext for doing whatever they want. They know they won't be blamed.

 

Inflation? Covid. Unemployment? Covid. Increased taxes? Covid.

[AWW]

I see the long term case for silver and have quite a few Brits on hand bought pre-Covid price jump. I did a spray and pray with a number of miners but sold after a very quick doubling of prices. They haven't done much since then, just drifted downwards slightly. I'd like to get back in, but all I see on the silver chart is a lot of air beneath current levels. It looks to me like we could easily see $18 in the near future. Any TA gurus care to comment?

[sancho panza]

Game on.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/29/microsoft-ceo-nadella-dumped-50-of-his-msft-stock-in-one-day-following-in-elon-musks-footsteps/

Microsoft CEO Nadella Dumped 50% of his MSFT Stock, Following in Elon Musk’s Footsteps

by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2021 • 133 Comments

Insiders dumping big portions of their stakes after historic share-price spikes is a sight to behold.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Microsoft disclosed in an SEC filing on Wednesday before Thanksgiving, when no one was paying attention and when this would likely get shuffled under the rug, that CEO Satya Nadella had sold on November 22 not 1% of his holdings or 5% of his holdings of Microsoft stock [MSFT] and not 10% of his holdings, but 50.2% of his holdings in numerous trades on one heck of a busy day.

Of the 1.67 million shares he held in the morning of November 22 going into this wholesale dumping exercise, he sold 838,584 shares, and at the end of the day, his stake had shriveled to 816,101 shares. The proceeds from the share dump totaled $285.3 million.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"A bleak winter awaits poorer Britons as costs rise and benefits shrink"

https://www.ft.com/content/c2551dbf-320a-4ce1-a59d-f7ac5492480b

What have we been saying on here for the last 2 years?!

Iv just been to Morrisons for my yearly stock up on beef joints at £6 a kilo,much better than Tesco where 20% is "basting fat",i get the biggest,cut in half,freeze and hot roast beef sarrnies etc for the year.Most people are dumb as shit.I was the only one in there not wearing a mask and it seems the only one who knew most of the prices were much cheaper elsewhere.Eye watering prices on most things.

Nobody said a word about no mask,but some women did have that look in their eyes that you were some kind of sexy rebel while their wimps of husbands sat scared behind their masks.I used the till where the woman had no mask on and i commented on how i was glad she hadnt covered up her lovely face ,got one of those smiles,you know the ones,,still got it 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, No One said:

The case you are making doesnt make sense. 
It's not that silver and gold will 10x, is that fiat will 0.1x. A gram of silver is a gram of silver, that is mate makes it money vs dollars which is a fiat currency.

Silver will outpace Fiats falls by a long way,its got 40 years catch up then the massive overshoot.Not just about printing,also about liquidity moves from bonds etc.Let it do its thing,its going to $200+ before the cycle is over.

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Is it only me that gets depressed by these responses to the 2 top comments:

 

It sums up the level of debate over the last 5 years.  When will we ever move on?

Proper debate and critical thinking has been AWOL for many many years. In the medium term i don't think we will be moving on. So yes i agree it is depressing, and very alarming, because tribalism (inc. our so called 'identity politics', equality agenda, etc) is a death spiral, but these ideas have been encouraged to pervade the West despite the whole poisonous philosophy being so obviously dangerous and destructive. 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Covid is just a pretext for doing whatever they want. They know they won't be blamed.

Inflation? Covid. Unemployment? Covid. Increased taxes? Covid.

Agreed. I think the whole Covid Cover-Story worked much better than TPTB could have dared hope... What with the media, the courts, and of course the medical profession all on board with the plan/panick-demic. I believe the often chaotic messaging and inconsistent policies coming from Western governments was due to them not knowing how 'far they could push things', but I'm sure they are delighted with the outcome.                                                                                     As you say, whatever happens next, they - the government - won't be blamed. Plus the level of public compliance is truly frightening, with most people seemingly almost impatiently awaiting their 'New Normal'!!! Yet there is no debate happening because because MSM and social media have effectively stifled/banned any opposition opinion... Everything is so '1984', yet it feels almost clichéd to reference the book?

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Game on.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/29/microsoft-ceo-nadella-dumped-50-of-his-msft-stock-in-one-day-following-in-elon-musks-footsteps/

Microsoft CEO Nadella Dumped 50% of his MSFT Stock, Following in Elon Musk’s Footsteps

by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2021 • 133 Comments

Insiders dumping big portions of their stakes after historic share-price spikes is a sight to behold.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Microsoft disclosed in an SEC filing on Wednesday before Thanksgiving, when no one was paying attention and when this would likely get shuffled under the rug, that CEO Satya Nadella had sold on November 22 not 1% of his holdings or 5% of his holdings of Microsoft stock [MSFT] and not 10% of his holdings, but 50.2% of his holdings in numerous trades on one heck of a busy day.

Of the 1.67 million shares he held in the morning of November 22 going into this wholesale dumping exercise, he sold 838,584 shares, and at the end of the day, his stake had shriveled to 816,101 shares. The proceeds from the share dump totaled $285.3 million.

Big tech CEO's are well connected, they have now blatantly been told that something is coming and its time to exit.  Reminds me of the this scene in this now very old film:

So has the music stopped or is it still just slowing?

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Big tech CEO's are well connected, they have now blatantly been told that something is coming and its time to exit.  Reminds me of the this scene in this now very old film:

So has the music stopped or is it still just slowing?

My word I love that film.

 

Along with the Big Short they really sum up where we're at in my opinion.

 

Hammer's about to drop and 99% of people haven't got a clue what's coming.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Ominous.

[Axeman123]

Bold statement: This much negativity and panic just off all time highs isn't what a top looks like when it ends. Sharp drops (and rises) rarely stick, it is the product of slow grinds in either direction that endure. This is just the wall of worry.

Not that I particularly know what I am talking about of course.

[Axeman123]

9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ominous.

See also:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/imf-urges-fed-to-speed-up-policy-tightening-amid-rising-inflation-risk.html

[AWW]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ominous.

I wonder if that is that due to lack of jobs, or lack of those willing to do them?

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

I wonder if that is that due to lack of jobs, or lack of those willing to do them?

Another perspective (from an admittedly dodgy source):

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/reason-behind-todays-massive-payrolls-miss-huge-seasonal-adjustment-flaw

"The implications: i) hiring, as hinted by the Household model, is quite strong but is hidden by model mechanics; and ii) more importantly, the faulty application of seasonal adjustment methodology lowered the November payrolls print by at least 200K; or as SouthBay summarizes it, "Far from being a weak November" this was a pretty strong report."

[JMD]

An interesting (and very long) essay on current high market valuations, capitol and labour, and possible solutions, by Julius Krein, a previous trader, but now market cynic, and deep thinker on these topics.                    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/08/the-value-of-nothing-capital-versus-growth/

[Hancock]

 

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I am shocked. Shocked, I tell thee.

Bank of England rate hike supporter gets Omicron jitters as firms face 'strongest inflation pressures for 23 years' | Business News | Sky News

It's as though a reason for not hiking rates (other than world-crippling debt costs) was needed.

After the Brexit vote, didnt they call an emergency meeting to put interest rates down within a couple of days.

Great that they're independent, independent from their fucken brains.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just been to Morrisons for my yearly stock up on beef joints at £6 a kilo,much better than Tesco where 20% is "basting fat",i get the biggest,cut in half,freeze and hot roast beef sarrnies etc for the year.Most people are dumb as shit.I was the only one in there not wearing a mask and it seems the only one who knew most of the prices were much cheaper elsewhere.Eye watering prices on most things.

Nobody said a word about no mask,but some women did have that look in their eyes that you were some kind of sexy rebel while their wimps of husbands sat scared behind their masks.I used the till where the woman had no mask on and i commented on how i was glad she hadnt covered up her lovely face ,got one of those smiles,you know the ones,,still got it 

I'm increasingly of the view that Durham must be some sort of Shangri-la.  When I go to Morrisons everyone is either 25 stone or smells of wee.  If any of them smiled at me I'd make a break for the door, throwing my yellow ticket items behind me like chaff.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Panic over boys. We're saved.

 

[harp]

David Hunter is saying this is it for PM’s. 
Then says a couple of tweets down that he’s a strategist and doesn’t make timing calls. 
This guy is still a fucking utter COCK!!

 

[Axeman123]

19 minutes ago, harp said:

David Hunter is saying this is it for PM’s. Then says a couple of tweets down that he’s a strategist and doesn’t make timing calls. 

I think his increased followership has gone to his head. I can remember when he had a couple of thousand or something, back then this was all fields...

[harp]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I think his increased followership has gone to his head. I can remember when he had a couple of thousand or something, back then this was all fields...

Yep, the more followers the more people he can flog his “contrarian” newletter to. 
I know people respect him. But he’s a cunt and ALWAYS says this when there’s a little pump. 

[CannonFodder]

At start of mar 20 crash, he was saying ignore the tape, weak hands get shaken out. Gold to 2500 etc

I held, i lost a lot, so be it. I didnt base my call just on his spiel and really take with a pinch of salt anything one reads.

He doesnt seem to acknowledge his misreads

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Panic over boys. We're saved.