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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Hancock

Hancock

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm a confirmed 'spray n prayer' when it comes to individual stocks in something like the PM miners. So not an expert on this sector by any stretch but I'd steer clear from what I've read about this individual stock(It has some serious issues that look like they won't get resolved in it's favour).It looks like a falling knife.DYOR obviously,I could be wrong.

@kibuc has probably the best working knowledge on here ref junior miners, maybe @Majorpain or @DurhamBorn have an opinion.

GJGB has held up remarkably well, gold and silver were at a lower price, at the start of October, but GJGB is higher than the low of $24.04

Maybe if it goes back to $24 i'll be tempted, but something inside tells me we're getting very near to a BK event.

image.png.418e90d30f4611d7acd0bafa9d038b42.png

 

Same applies with SILJ ... 

image.png.ee3be1cc5442be22991d3301257beb2d.png

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Barnsey

Barnsey

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That said I can recall about 4,000 hangovers when I'd have paid big money for a sausage and egg mcmuffin to the door. I guess I'm a hypocrite...

Guilty as charged :ph34r:

£2 delivery free to avoid the horrendous permanent queue at our local McD's a bargain IMO, especially with fuel at £1.50L.

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Boon said:

Why the hell do people get junk food delivered in the first place? 

 

I was wondering that myself.

I go for a Chinese take away now and again.  I drive about mile to get it, under current circumstances it's nice to get out.  I have a nice chat to the lovely Chinese lady behind the counter and I drive home and have my food while it's hot.

It's a real pain in the backside to park, always has been.

I've noticed in the last 6 months though it's now practically impossible to park, there are cars double parked everywhere and you see people coming out of the various takeaways into their cars with those bags to keep the food warm, so they are clearly delivery drivers.

Same if you go to somewhere like MacDonalds, there are queues of these delivery drivers, car park is full of their 10 year old Vauxhalls.

Makes you want to not go.

You'd think it would be less bust if loads of people are getting deliveries so maybe the take aways are doing more business.

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sleepwello'nights

sleepwello'nights

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Anyone here from Oxford?

 

Is this a fucking joke?

Why?

£200k for shell, £50k to refurb, less if you do most of the work yourself. Should sell for what £300 - £350. What would you earn as an employee for  6 months work.

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ThoughtCriminal

ThoughtCriminal

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why?

£200k for shell, £50k to refurb, less if you do most of the work yourself. Should sell for what £300 - £350. What would you earn as an employee for  6 months work.

50k to refurb that? No chance.

 

And you're making my point for me. 300-350 to live in a shithole.

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Erewhon888

Erewhon888

Posted
Posted
On 30/11/2021 at 15:10, DurhamBorn said:

I think inflation might stay high rather than speed up.I do think we might get a fall back though first to fake everyone.I think roughly 6.7% then 3.8% then back up over 5% sustaining.65%ish for cycle compounded.Interest rate increases with QE are key.

Gammon finds a resolution to the differing Alden/Snider views on inflation.

Inflation: Understand history so you can predict the future

I did wonder what the balance would be between Dosbodders self-identifying as "Average Joes" or "Seasoned Pros". I'm surprised that "Average Joes" are seen as worrying about their allocation to bonds, cash and Gold/Bitcoin.

Lyn.png

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sleepwello'nights

sleepwello'nights

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

50k to refurb that? No chance.

 

And you're making my point for me. 300-350 to live in a shithole.

Pay cash and tour the builders merchants for ex-display and end of line stuff. 

I reckon its do-able. Depends on whether the roof needs much work.

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AWW

AWW

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

it's worse than that

https://www.brightworkresearch.com/how-indian-it-workers-discriminate-against-non-indian-workers/

Can confirm. Standard Chartered Bank had a big problem in their FX IT department a few years back when an Indian guy became head of department and then made the lives of white staff (and Non-Muslim Indians) hell. They left and were replaced with more Indian Muslims. Obviously the bank let it happen, because diversity.

This is the same bank who put out a press release saying they opened their Saudi operation "with pride" during Pride week.

Hypocrites, the lot of them.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Thank you for your reply Sancho.

I've lowered my next ladder in, on the basis of the responses on here.

Some of my thoughts.

1- no fundamental change in the operation and financials of the company

2- mine license renewal was declined by national government

3- company can continue operations in the mine and protected by a court order

4- government asking for retro active royalties 30M

5- Company agreed to pay 9.6M in retroactive royalties

6- government wants 3% royalties

7- CEO does not know when license will be renewed

8- Company employees 1200 people in the mine

9- Mine located in a poor neighborhood and no industrial presence

10- company supports surrounding communities

11- Mine has another 4 years of life if left without exploration and drilling

12- Mine accounts for 25-28% of total company sales

The renewal of the license is not a new issue. Many miners has similar issues with license renewal

This isn't from me but a subscription service I use for spraying and praying PM miners.It's only one opinion though.

 

SEMARNAT running consultancy period with locals that has been pending since 2011,result will be legally binding.

FSM has to accept this consultancy and puts mine at risk of being closed down.

For ten years FSM has claimed it has support of locals but there have been long term protests at mine gates but depsite this FSM has never submitted to a consultancy with locals.

San Jose mine to stay open while it runs its course,black cloud over FSM until resolution

'You may think “this is cheap”, “the locals are crazy” “the company has always been a good citizen” or anything else you want, but do not confuse your own biases with what may “unjustly” happen to this company in 2022 in Oaxaca Mexico, a State with a traditonally negative view of mining activity (we are not in Zacatecas here, folks). Traders and technical analysts may see a trade and a bounce in the cards, but your fundies-based author sees risk, risk and more risk and will avoid FSM like the veritable plague.'

 

edit to add,jsut reading this weeks update and apparently anti mining campaigners are going door to door collecting signatures 'or else'.apparently,the story is moving to get national coverage

'As for the capitalist end of this, this desk doesn’t hide the fact that if FSM manages to revert SEMARNAT’s opinion and get the license it needs, there’s money to be made. Put a gun to my head (figuratively speaking, of course) and I’d say that they won’t get all the move back that they lost from the SEMARNAT move (box) and ensuing sentiment fallout (arrow), but even a chart move back to U$4.60 or so would imply a 30% upside from this weekend and with the volume FSM trades, that’s serious money. '

 

I'll stay out of it from hereonin-the deabte on FSM I mean.

 

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting...if you ignore the pre covid production ramp up and post covid rampdiwn, both artificial, OPEC is back on its 2018-2020 trajectory. Not sure how much further they can push this. I have no idea where they are getting a 2/3/4mbpd surplus in Q1 next year from.

Screenshot_20211202-125156-935.png

Intriguing.

I was sat here ready for some call option punts on BP sub 320.My window of opportunity is the tiny bubble at the bottom which amounted to 1 hour on friday teh 26th when I was out doing school runs and stuff.

The marekts are merciless.

My point is that you either bought these brief dips are getting bought quickly.Is it a sign of insto moeny coming in in greater strength?

@planit I've had to copy and paste as it won't let reply to two things at the mo

'It also seems best to err on the side of caution, if there are more travel curbs due to Omicron and an oil surplus then the price could fall back to $40 and undo all the hard graft getting it back up to where it is. Oil price is really low when you add in inflation (and oil producers have had real inflation in their expenses for the last 10 years). '

Interesting point about the higher costs faced by producers.Aslo I think we're about to find out who's been swimming naked in Q1.

As per CP's chart,OPEC production was declingin itno 2020 before covid...

image.png.8ee8319d399838c40abd735a93a80237.png

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No One

No One

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a Silver Brit,or Maple in your hand,consider how much it costs today to buy one.Now imagine a system so leveraged it needs trillions and trillions printing just to fund welfare,never mind other demands.Name me something,anything you can buy today at that price that is rare, beautiful,money etc that has the potential of silver to x10,x20?

Thats the answer.Given the system and the liquidity needed to stop it rolling over to the stone age the potential is incredible.I dont even think about my silver even though its a big chunk of my worth.I get $200+ or i die holding it.Both are coming,its just what comes first.The best lesson anyone can learn in the markets is to let things go to where they are going in their own time.

As for the NASDAQ etc why care?,DRAX,RM,Mosaic and many others have 3x ,4x etc in the same months.Going to where they were going in their own time.

£50k in Tesla or £50k in silver,but you have to hold for 5 years and cant sell,what would you choose?

The miners already ran before and have simply given up some gains,never linear.

The case you are making doesnt make sense. 
It's not that silver and gold will 10x, is that fiat will 0.1x. A gram of silver is a gram of silver, that is mate makes it money vs dollars which is a fiat currency.

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