Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[planit]

 

Quote

Whoppers were £1 Weds on the app,sod Mcdonalds,get the Burger King app.

 

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wow, 85% off, talk about loss making offers 

 

Missed it, I should have bought the dip and loaded up with a year's supply. 

 

I think I read a few years ago that McDonalds burgers can last 10 years in a jacket pocket.

Here we go:

McDonald's burger bought in Utah in 1999 looks exactly the same as the day it was first flipped

 

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, harp said:

I know people respect him. But he’s a cunt 

Fair play. What he does isn't a good fit for twitter, and his over use of the platform just compounds it.

His calls have been bang on in several areas though, in oil for example both at the Mar 2020 bottom and the recent top when everyone one else was calling for the opposite. Those calls can't be dismissed as a stopped clock etc.

 

[Castlevania]

18 minutes ago, planit said:

 

 

 

Missed it, I should have bought the dip and loaded up with a year's supply. 

 

I think I read a few years ago that McDonalds burgers can last 10 years in a jacket pocket.

Here we go:

McDonald's burger bought in Utah in 1999 looks exactly the same as the day it was first flipped

 

79 cents in 1999

[Axeman123]

23 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

At start of mar 20 crash, he was saying ignore the tape, weak hands get shaken out. Gold to 2500 etc

...

He doesnt seem to acknowledge his misreads

Heres a monthly chart of gold, with an arrow pointing at March 2020. I went through hell with GJGB at that time, but looking back he was right to say hold. Still waiting on 2500 obviously...

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, harp said:

David Hunter is saying this is it for PM’s. 
Then says a couple of tweets down that he’s a strategist and doesn’t make timing calls. 
This guy is still a fucking utter COCK!!

 

FFS, is that a reversal from an up or from a down?  Which depends on which chart and how you read it.  Sure, Twitter requires brevity but come on, not to the point of jibberish.

[CannonFodder]

Thing is, he wasnt just saying hold gold, he was saying buy stocks, and his gold calls keep getting pushed out, eventually he will be right

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just been to Morrisons for my yearly stock up on beef joints at £6 a kilo,much better than Tesco where 20% is "basting fat",i get the biggest,cut in half,freeze and hot roast beef sarrnies etc for the year.Most people are dumb as shit.I was the only one in there not wearing a mask and it seems the only one who knew most of the prices were much cheaper elsewhere.Eye watering prices on most things.

Nobody said a word about no mask,but some women did have that look in their eyes that you were some kind of sexy rebel while their wimps of husbands sat scared behind their masks.I used the till where the woman had no mask on and i commented on how i was glad she hadnt covered up her lovely face ,got one of those smiles,you know the ones,,still got it 

Eh?  You bought meat in Morrison's but knew you could get it cheaper elsewhere? 

And what you do with the joints exactly - cut in half and frozen but surely you don't defrost a whole one?  I'd need a chainsaw to cut small bits off for sarnies,  etc instead.

Confused!

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wow, 85% off, talk about loss making offers 

There was a time I used to go to Burger King.  I always asked for the voucher book (they usually had one behind the counter).  No need to hope to get one in the shops, etc.  I rarely paid full price!

[Axeman123]

29 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Thing is, he wasnt just saying hold gold, he was saying buy stocks, and his gold calls keep getting pushed out, eventually he will be right

Fair play, I was only following his metals and miners call at the time.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Eh?  You bought meat in Morrison's but knew you could get it cheaper elsewhere? 

And what you do with the joints exactly - cut in half and frozen but surely you don't defrost a whole one?  I'd need a chainsaw to cut small bits off for sarnies,  etc instead.

Confused!

Cheap meat is shit, go to a proper butcher. The bit with a lot of fat on it was a lazy happy animal and will taste all the better for it.

You might even get the butcher to slice it thinly for you.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Eh?  You bought meat in Morrison's but knew you could get it cheaper elsewhere? 

And what you do with the joints exactly - cut in half and frozen but surely you don't defrost a whole one?  I'd need a chainsaw to cut small bits off for sarnies,  etc instead.

Confused!

Nooo the meat is cheapest in Morrisons on those joints (actually same in Asda and Tesco,but Tescos is 20% basting fat) they put the offer on every xmas,everything else much more expensive in Morrisons,apart from cling film,thats 60p,very cheap.I cut them in half and freeze yes,but i defrost and cook the half not slice off frozen  ,,Roughly works out a fiver and il cook one for hot beef,sarnies,beef dinner etc.Usually find i can get 3 nights meals off one for two of us.

I didn notice in Morrisons though most of the customers were pensioners,very few younger family types,looks like their customers will die off over time and not be replaced,im glad those yanks bought them off me for once.

[Hancock]

57 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Cheap meat is shit, go to a proper butcher. The bit with a lot of fat on it was a lazy happy animal and will taste all the better for it.

You might even get the butcher to slice it thinly for you.

Got some Aldi braising steak today to make my own burgers, now i shop around usually avoid Aldi for meat, but these were arguably the best burgers i've ever made.

Twice through the leccy mincing machine, generous helping of salt and pepper, put into 125g pates then 4 minutes either side on almost full heat ....made them up there with 5 Guys! but for a fraction of the price. 

Used Tesco bread buns 4 for 70p, slice of burger cheese and a rasher of bacon ... + ketchup.

Relatively healthy junk food, cant beat it.

[Eventually Right]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

My word I love that film.

 

Along with the Big Short they really sum up where we're at in my opinion.

 

Hammer's about to drop and 99% of people haven't got a clue what's coming.

I love this speech by Paul Bettany’s character 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nooo the meat is cheapest in Morrisons on those joints (actually same in Asda and Tesco,but Tescos is 20% basting fat) they put the offer on every xmas,everything else much more expensive in Morrisons,apart from cling film,thats 60p,very cheap.I cut them in half and freeze yes,but i defrost and cook the half not slice off frozen  ,,Roughly works out a fiver and il cook one for hot beef,sarnies,beef dinner etc.Usually find i can get 3 nights meals off one for two of us.

I didn notice in Morrisons though most of the customers were pensioners,very few younger family types,looks like their customers will die off over time and not be replaced,im glad those yanks bought them off me for once.

Ah, ta.  We have a small roast Sunday and can get at least two meals for two out of the rest if combined with other things.  Makes a nice change.  Your special fried rice is great with some pork.  These dishes don't need much meat.  Same with steak, keep half cooked back, slice later and have with mushrooms, onions, english mustard and a drop of sherry.  Add some rice and veg.  A quick meal for two.  As you say, home cooking can be cheap and excellent.  We do loads of stuff like this.  People seem to eat too much meat (don't split a pack) and we like the veg just as much.

Morrisons are crap IMO.  Not just their BS at the start of covid but also the prices.  We went to do a shop once and smelt a rat so got out the prior week's Aldi receipt to compare prices.  We just put everything back and left.

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, Harley said:

There was a time I used to go to Burger King.  I always asked for the voucher book (they usually had one behind the counter).  No need to hope to get one in the shops, etc.  I rarely paid full price!

McDonald’s used to put vouchers in the free newspapers. They never used to check whether you had said voucher, simply ask for the offer and they gave it to you. Same if you bought a meal state that you’re a student and they’ll give you a free cheeseburger, they never checked.

[jamtomorrow]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

An interesting (and very long) essay on current high market valuations, capitol and labour, and possible solutions, by Julius Krein, a previous trader, but now market cynic, and deep thinker on these topics.                    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/08/the-value-of-nothing-capital-versus-growth/

Long yes, but completely riveting. Good find @JMD, thank you for sharing.

A lot of overlap with this article, also posted recently: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

Does make me wonder to what extent bubble stocks are explained by the macro picture, versus the natural tendency of late-stage liberal capitalism to degenerate into rent-seeking and oligarchy.

Bitterly ironic that the endpoint works out the same as with socialism: an overweening self-appointed elite calling the shots and, sooner or later, killing the goose.

The key quote for me:

"To seriously confront China, the U.S. state would first have to gain supremacy over the oligarchs. But if the state were strong enough to do that, the current situation would not have arisen in the first place, and a reasonable settlement with China could probably be negotiated."

The health of a political economy is measured in part by the vitality of the struggle between the public and private spheres. When there's no longer a visible struggle and they appear to have merged and become the same thing, and there's broad agreement on how things should be arranged - well that's when you know you're in *real* trouble.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Ah, ta.  We have a small roast Sunday and can get at least two meals for two out of the rest if combined with other things.  Makes a nice change.  Your special fried rice is great with some pork.  These dishes don't need much meat.  Same with steak, keep half cooked back, slice later and have with mushrooms, onions, english mustard and a drop of sherry.  Add some rice and veg.  A quick meal for two.  As you say, home cooking can be cheap and excellent.  We do loads of stuff like this.  People seem to eat too much meat (don't split a pack) and we like the veg just as much.

Morrisons are crap IMO.  Not just their BS at the start of covid but also the prices.  We went to do a shop once and smelt a rat so got out the prior week's Aldi receipt to compare prices.  We just put everything back and left.

After finance its the thing im most pleased i can do,cooking.Like you say a wok can make fantastic meals and use only small amounts of meat.Veg is still dirt cheap in Lidl ,Aldi and Tesco.Im doing a lot of roast veg now in olive oil.Morrisons prices are way out now and it was obvious their customers were 70+ and not bothered about prices due to pensions etc.

[Innkeeper]

Yup, Morrison’s most expensive after Ocado and Waitrose according to Which....

 

Aldi is officially the UK's cheapest supermarket in September 2021, according to Which? - just beating rival Lidl by 37p. 

A basket of 22 branded and unbranded goods cost £24.03 at Aldi and £24.40 at Lidl, which won in August. 

The Which? research also found Aldi was a massive 38% cheaper than the most expensive supermarket for an equivalent basket of items. 

The most-expensive supermarket was Waitrose, where the products cost 38% more than Aldi, at £33.06.

At Asda the price was £26.19, and at Sainsbury's £27.95.

Morrisons charged £28.31 for the goods, tied with Tesco.

Ocado asked £29.84 for the items, and Waitrose was the most expensive (£33.06).

 

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

McDonald’s used to put vouchers in the free newspapers. They never used to check whether you had said voucher, simply ask for the offer and they gave it to you. Same if you bought a meal state that you’re a student and they’ll give you a free cheeseburger, they never checked.

I remember when KFC used to do buy on get one free on the back of parking tickets.An older guy i worked with worked out the way the wind blew down a certain car park and the bush all the discarded tickets used to fly into ,he used to send his wife into the bush to collect them,she was 20 years younger than him and gorgeous,yet he had her crawling around bushes for those tickets.

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Got some Aldi braising steak today to make my own burgers, now i shop around usually avoid Aldi for meat, but these were arguably the best burgers i've ever made.

Twice through the leccy mincing machine, generous helping of salt and pepper, put into 125g pates then 4 minutes either side on almost full heat ....made them up there with 5 Guys! but for a fraction of the price. 

Used Tesco bread buns 4 for 70p, slice of burger cheese and a rasher of bacon ... + ketchup.

Relatively healthy junk food, cant beat it.

"Junk" food made at home is quite healthy,its all the crap they add during the process.I make burger,i always add an egg,minced onion,mixed italian herbs to the mix blitzed up.I usually use the cheap 20% mince when i get it reduced in Lidl for 70p though.Iv got a mincer on my food processor and iv never used it,il have to give it a go.

[RWJ]

This is all great stuff.... maybe we need a home cooking thread.

Just picked up a smoked ham reduced to £3 in Sainsbury's, now in the slow cooker and it'll do me the whole weekend.  Pot of soup will be made from the stock.

Pizza dough is defrosting for my daughter's weekend pizza.  I'm finding dough that's been frozen then defrosted makes for a much nicer pizza base.  I make a large batch, divide and freeze.  Cuts down the amount of yeast needed and the ballache of making dough every weekend.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

cooking.Like you say a wok can make fantastic meals and use only small amounts of meat

A wok is incredibly energy efficient, you can cook most things on the smallest burner on a gas hob, that's using 1KW per hour.

Carbon steel and copper pans also make a big difference energy use wise, good investments IMO.

[belfastchild]

28 minutes ago, RWJ said:

This is all great stuff.... maybe we need a home cooking thread.

 

Ive mentioned it in passing but will mention it again here.
The local food cash and carries used to be trade only (self employed would do, any self employed really), but during lockdowns opened up to the public (after 10 or 11am after trade people got in and got the reductions - I go in 8-9am on a Friday as they have less weekend staff and sometimes mark down things that would really need to be marked down Sunday or Monday but there wont be the staff). Worth looking to see if there are any local places to you rather than paying costco membership. Big chinese supplies places over here are open to the public as well.

Maybe not as cheap as the supermarkets marked down but a lot of the stuff I see in local butchers is there. I buy things like whole veg roll/black puddings/sirloins/boxes of fresh chicken/pork loins and cut up and portion up and freeze at home.
If you get a reduction on any of these then its great!

Bought loads and loads of dried spices/herbs pre brexit but have since started growing a lot of them (including the hard to find jalapenos) in a mini greenhouse/conservatory during the summer. Fresh herbs with everything during summer and the excess I hang up to dry out and then stick in a container or with the jalapenos/tomatoes use the free summer electric and dehydrator or just freeze in bags for including in stews/curries later.

I used my NI free money card to stock up on stuff and changing electric supplier should give me a 100 quid tesco voucher (first time I will have stepped foot in there in almost 2 years). Running down one of the freezers at the minute with all the soups/stews I made with free electric during the summer so will defrost it and transfer one of the others and turn that off (unless I see good reductions post christmas).

[RWJ]

13 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

The local food cash and carries

Cheers.  I must seek out one of these.  Not eating carbs I go through a hell of a lot of meats so I'm always on the look out for reductions.

23rd/24th Dec tends to be a good time to scan the supermarkets for vastly reduced meats and cheeses as they're clearing out ahead of the holidays.

[Animal Spirits]

Saxo Bank Outrageous Predictions
2022: Revolution

https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/outrageous-predictions

1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check
2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus
3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis
4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions
6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy
7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member
8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform
9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war
10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years