The Sunday evening 'week ahead' thread

[Loki]

NUMBER WENT DOWN

ABORT 

ABORT

 

 

[Calcutta]

16 hours ago, Loki said:

Is he long DASH?  You'd be a bit tetchy too 

The kid or the retard boyfriend?

Nipper is long silver miners and IAG. Because he's 8 and I've got all the money.

The other guy is dependent on stealing her benefits and begging free drugs from his brother. I don't think he's bothering the Isa limit anytime soon.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

The other guy is dependent on stealing her benefits and begging free drugs from his brother

I see a grand career in politics in his future 

[sancho panza]

20 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I think there’s a big shy Bolsanaro vote and the polling companies are underestimating his support. I think very close (probably 1-2% in it) but Lula just. 

great call

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Next US fed rate setting meeting is tomorow/day after.

I am thinking +75bps, vague talk of slowing. Then...

 

Wed.Fed whisperers are pointing toward dovish tone.we'll see..

If the Fed isn't careful and keeps raising they'll force a lot of foreign holders to dump UST's eg Japan.

BoE is Thrusdya.0.75% looks baked in

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by sancho panza

[Axeman123]

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Fed whisperers

What I am seeing online is +75bps, forecast +50bps next time (aka "pivot"), ... but then adding extra 25bps to the back end of their forecasts to produce a higher terminal rate (on paper). I personally doubt all the later rises get implemented. Just as the fed was slow to start hiking and had to catch up, so once they are slowing the rises they will have to stop completely and then cut faster than they currently think. To me that all implies they are trying to muffle the pivot, but are essentially signalling hikes slowing  = hikes stopping soon = cuts one step closer = Game on for the melt-up.

[Loki]

26 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Fed whisperers

This phrase gets me every time.   End stage central bankerism, gotta love it. 

 

Chinese whispers can move markets

 

 

[Loki]

It's time for a mid-week review, I'll keep it brief

 

[Talking Monkey]

On 31/10/2022 at 17:53, Loki said:

This phrase gets me every time.   End stage central bankerism, gotta love it. 

 

Chinese whispers can move markets

 

 

End stage central bankerism, I'm fucking crying with laughter, plus the mid week review is comedy gold. 

[nirvana]

@Loki Gold and Silver bouncing off previous lows....that's a good trade to look for, low risk with tight stops 

Look at Gold on 5min, you can see it was making HLs too......that's Higher Lows...

Edited November 3, 2022 by nirvana

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, nirvana said:

@Loki Gold and Silver bouncing off previous lows....that's a good trade to look for, low risk with tight stops 

Look at Gold on 5min, you can see it was making HLs too......that's Higher Lows...

I'm leaving 'trading' well enough alone for now  (bullish?)

 

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm leaving 'trading' well enough alone for now  (bullish?)

 

yeah bullish.....don't blame ya, tis a very tuff gig to be fair.....

[Noallegiance]

What chances of note-worthy civil unrest with a major win for either US political party next week?!

Reps hammer Dems - Lefty meltdown

Dems hammer Reps - Rigged election uproar

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What chances of note-worthy civil unrest with a major win for either US political party next week?!

Reps hammer Dems - Lefty meltdown

Dems hammer Reps - Rigged election uproar

Either one sounds like a number go up situation to me

 

Also, the stock market could bounce as well 

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Reps hammer Dems - Lefty meltdown

My guess is a narrower Rep win than has been anticipated, maybe narrow enough for essentially gridlock. That would be melt-up fuel IMO.

The media narrative seems to have pivoted to anticipating a Rep win, so a narrow one (perhaps blamed solely on fuel costs) might even be spun as a positive for Dems. Republican party insiders likely will secretly be glad not to have the numbers for constitutional ammendments to remove Biden etc.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

My guess is a narrower Rep win than has been anticipated, maybe narrow enough for essentially gridlock. That would be melt-up fuel IMO.

 

Why's that?  Not doubting it would be, just wondered the reason

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

Why's that?  Not doubting it would be, just wondered the reason

Which part:

Narrow win?

Just a hunch. I have heard the Dems are largely giving up in some states to focus on more winnable ones. That implies to me they are trying to narrow the loss rather than win. If they are doing that in an effective way I would think a massive sweep for the Reps becomes almost impossible.

Gridlock = melt-up?

I just assume it would be the stability and de-escalation pathway. Rhetoric gets dialed back as consensus and horse-trading becomes the norm, civil-war or impeaching Biden out of office are off the agenda. Markets should like all of that IMO.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Which part:

Narrow win?

Just a hunch. I have heard the Dems are largely giving up in some states to focus on more winnable ones. That implies to me they are trying to narrow the loss rather than win. If they are doing that in an effective way I would think a massive sweep for the Reps becomes almost impossible.

Gridlock = melt-up?

I just assume it would be the stability and de-escalation pathway. Rhetoric gets dialed back as consensus and horse-trading becomes the norm, civil-war or impeaching Biden out of office are off the agenda. Markets should like all of that IMO.

It would be nice to end this boring stalemate either way

 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

It would be nice to end this boring stalemate either way

The irony being that a split between houses and the presidency is the norm in the US, and is normally how the uniparty advances its' agenda against the wishes of both parties' voters. A single renegade senator like Sinema or Manchin would also have much less power in that scenario, as wierd as that sounds. 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The irony being that a split between houses and the presidency is the norm in the US, and is normally how the uniparty advances its' agenda against the wishes of both parties' voters. A single renegade senator like Sinema or Manchin would also have much less power in that scenario, as wierd as that sounds. 

That's a good point - probably why they're drawing so much attention to it, as a distraction 

[nirvana]

openings gapped down.........gaps normally get filled.....

Notable events this week? US CPI thursday

Edited November 7, 2022 by nirvana

[sancho panza]

20 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

My guess is a narrower Rep win than has been anticipated, maybe narrow enough for essentially gridlock. That would be melt-up fuel IMO.

The media narrative seems to have pivoted to anticipating a Rep win, so a narrow one (perhaps blamed solely on fuel costs) might even be spun as a positive for Dems. Republican party insiders likely will secretly be glad not to have the numbers for constitutional ammendments to remove Biden etc.

Disagree on the anrrow win,Dems look in trouble in places like New Hmapshire.

Could be Hassan keeps it by a whisker but it means Dems in deep trouble elsewhere.

Fetterman looks doomed in Penn

Biden getting nailed by this will increase chance of peace in Ukraine,

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Disagree on the anrrow win,Dems look in trouble in places like New Hmapshire.

Could be Hassan keeps it by a whisker but it means Dems in deep trouble elsewhere.

Fetterman looks doomed in Penn

Biden getting nailed by this will increase chance of peace in Ukraine,

My broad rule of thumb in life, which I can't really back up, is that a crushing defeat only really happens when someone is dellusional about their unwinnable position. That is all I am really basing my "narrow" prediction on, plus signs the Dems are focussing on winnable seats and managing expectations down.

Pensylvania allegedly is going to have massive cheating, and is pretty leftwing to begin with AIUI. Fetterman seems to be one of the Dems' abandoned no-hopers IMO, so who knows. He really is an awful joke of a candidate, and an insult to the voters.

It really does seem the weapons supply to Ukraine will end in January. Biden et al seem to want a big final push for a token victory before abandoning the country. It makes a kind of sense, a setback for Putin would strengthen Ukraine's weak hand at the negotiating table. 

[sancho panza]

20 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

My broad rule of thumb in life, which I can't really back up, is that a crushing defeat only really happens when someone is dellusional about their unwinnable position. That is all I am really basing my "narrow" prediction on, plus signs the Dems are focussing on winnable seats and managing expectations down.

Pensylvania allegedly is going to have massive cheating, and is pretty leftwing to begin with AIUI. Fetterman seems to be one of the Dems' abandoned no-hopers IMO, so who knows. He really is an awful joke of a candidate, and an insult to the voters.

It really does seem the weapons supply to Ukraine will end in January. Biden et al seem to want a big final push for a token victory before abandoning the country. It makes a kind of sense, a setback for Putin would strengthen Ukraine's weak hand at the negotiating table. 

Think we're maybe differing on the basis of what we define as narrow.In terms of US Senate there's normally barely a seat or two in it the last few years

It's not unusal for Presidents to have the 'trifecta' in their first year or two, but then go lame duck.

I don't seea  way Dems keep either hosue or senate.

Edited November 7, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Red Eagle Politics is going for 244 Rep hosue seats.He was under last time and is a pragmatic Rep supporter.