Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Chewing Grass]

Seems to be a lot of firms doing the nicher stuff going bust today.

Tuffnells

Meatless Farm

A Canary Wharf Office Tower

Henry Construction (turnover £400M)

Conservatories Direct

Red Cat Brewery

Plus

177 Lloyds Pharmacies getting out of Sainsbury's

NatWest raising BTL interest rate to 7 percent which is not coverable or viable for new entrants and a lot of existing 'clients'.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Seems to be a lot of firms doing the nicher stuff going bust today.

Tuffnells

Meatless Farm

A Canary Wharf Office Tower

Henry Construction (turnover £400M)

Conservatories Direct

Red Cat Brewery

Plus

177 Lloyds Pharmacies getting out of Sainsbury's

NatWest raising BTL interest rate to 7 percent which is not coverable or viable for new entrants and a lot of existing 'clients'.

Mental.  I was offered three separate runs of work today (In London).  I can't explain it other than what I think is coming is a crack up boom

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, honkydonkey said:

Pivoting.

No, it's not French.

 

 

 

Yes arab land no longer approve of west. The video sums up their view now of the west

They moving fast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Seems to be a lot of firms doing the nicher stuff going bust today.

Tuffnells

Meatless Farm

A Canary Wharf Office Tower

Henry Construction (turnover £400M)

Conservatories Direct

Red Cat Brewery

Plus

177 Lloyds Pharmacies getting out of Sainsbury's

NatWest raising BTL interest rate to 7 percent which is not coverable or viable for new entrants and a lot of existing 'clients'.

Natwest are pretty much saying BTL is over and we dont want the business.I suspect with rates at 7% we are close to where big institutions start to build to rent.I am seeing a lot of denial from leveraged BTL,one they said they would just put up rents and then when rates "got back to normal next spring" keep the higher rents and rake it in.

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

"All our branches are safe spaces...": unless the abuser actually marches in to drag you away, because I doubt anyone working there would get involved.

actually, the high street branches in the UK and Australia are pretty good at spotting and reporting abuse situations - mate of mine in the Uk police has been called a number of times into branches where the staff thought someone was being exploited (seems to be pikeys and old ladies or thugs and sharons).

Of course, banks seem to want to shut branches...

[Jay]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Natwest are pretty much saying BTL is over and we dont want the business.I suspect with rates at 7% we are close to where big institutions start to build to rent.I am seeing a lot of denial from leveraged BTL,one they said they would just put up rents and then when rates "got back to normal next spring" keep the higher rents and rake it in.

Ilo saying uk unemployment rate fell to 3.8..so more rate hikes..German inflation still at 6%..the fangs in the states have had a melt up…am beginning to appreciate mr hunter and his calls…just got his timing wrong..

[desertorchid]

 

UK Economy in rude health? Unemployment rate must be pretty close to full employment at these levels. Earnings up 6.5% surely means we are now approaching an overlap where real wages may be seen as positive in the next few months.

Devils advocate I know but the quantitative measures do not show an economy anywhere near approaching some kind of disintegration.

 

[M S E Refugee]

28 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

 

UK Economy in rude health? Unemployment rate must be pretty close to full employment at these levels. Earnings up 6.5% surely means we are now approaching an overlap where real wages may be seen as positive in the next few months.

Devils advocate I know but the quantitative measures do not show an economy anywhere near approaching some kind of disintegration.

 

The problem is when I go to collect mail from the main Post Office I'm not sure that I earn enough working full time to support all of the immigrants and their families in the queue who are drawing money out.

[Jay]

27 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

 

UK Economy in rude health? Unemployment rate must be pretty close to full employment at these levels. Earnings up 6.5% surely means we are now approaching an overlap where real wages may be seen as positive in the next few months.

Devils advocate I know but the quantitative measures do not show an economy anywhere near approaching some kind of disintegration.

 

It’s on the micro so regional level that the falls in standards and services are more visible..but yes that does not show a decline and if you have a pay rises and savings then everything is custy..

the lags of the rates may show up later in the year on a macro level..

[jamtomorrow]

16 hours ago, JMD said:

TPTB have realised the national grid ('smart' or otherwise) isn't capable of charging millions of EVs. I have now come to think 2nd hand ICE cars will not only be tolerated but will be positively encouraged to operate for decades to come. After all its not just the 'evil' oil energy factor, but also the problem of the limited supply of minerals needed for batteries and the manufacture of entire new fleets of cars. 

It's still really early days with EV technology, and especially battery chemistry - I'd be very wary of looking at the technologies in products being sold today and drawing firm conclusions about how that plays out even a few years from now, let alone decades.

New battery chemistries are popping up all the time. LiFePO4 isn't that new but is starting to muscle out NCM chemistries (the one that needs rare minerals) in some applications. It's quite possible LiFePO4 ends up well-suited for haulage (hydrogen is looking very unlikely now).

https://www.designnews.com/automotive-engineering/pros-and-cons-lithium-iron-phosphate-ev-batteries

As for grid capacity - the (predominantly) overnight demand for EV charging should work out as an assist for the grid, because it will go a long way towards equalising day/night demand.

Think fewer "peaker" plants, more nuclear. That's if we can get past this obsession with wind and solar (which inevitably means more peakers - doh).

[crashmonitor]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I find it incredible watching them fail so badly.It really is group think.Its not some devious plan,they really are just shit.The Blair government set in motion the collapse,but i blame this government the most.Why?,because ordinary working people gave them a big win to come in and sort it.They have done nothing.Listening and watching the BOE i can pretty much model their model.I know what they are doing and i know why its such a disaster.They really do think by monetising welfare for government that the demand will allow companies to invest and grow production.They set up their whole model on this classical economic theory.Go through the courses they all took at uni etc.Nearly all of them classical economics.That is why now they cant understand why it just keeps getting worse.Companies cant hire because bennies are front running wages..The rate increases are their answer,but they wont work.

I think my model nailed the numbers because most of the inputs were based on the last distribution cycle with lots of changes.The oil shock was a supply shock,where this time we are seeing the same thing,but from lack of working due to bennies and pensions.This time the economy cant afford energy and it cant afford workes,all because of polos failings funded by the BOE.

The worry is the set up is they take everything before we collapse.We really are in an horrific situation.

I think here is an example of welfare driving food inflation. This article really annoyed me tbh. 

1. The woman is obese

2. But the poor woman is skipping  one meal every day to make ends meet apparently.

3. Her grocery bill is £500 per month. 

 

Now I could live on Wetherspoons every bloody day for that with a massive breakfast and a main meal packing in 4,000 calories a day. I certainly wouldn't be starving. Indeed me and the wife spend a mere £125 per month on groceries because we cook from scratch. Yes I could teach the  granny how to suck eggs.

 

You've guessed it, it is the bloody Independent. Why the heck should we feel sorry for a granny that spends eight fold on groceries what me and the wife manage on.

 

I really give up this left wing propaganda and this crazy country sometimes.

Somebody on here referred to these folk as feeders, harsh but heck it makes me cynical and angry.

 

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/saving-and-banking/manage-my-money-grandmother-poor-money-ann-summers-parties-2389006

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by crashmonitor

[Majorpain]

9 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Henry Construction (turnover £400M)

Biggest one to date, that's a lot of subbies who are going to be hopping mad when they don't get paid.  Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, which a lot of companies have forgotten in race to bottom.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2023/06/08/henry-construction-sites-grind-to-a-halt/

Quote

 

Amid the recent confusion, at least two Henry site managers are said to have been assaulted in recent days by fuming subbies seeking payment.

Anger is definitely rising.

[M S E Refugee]

30 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I think here is an example of welfare driving food inflation. This article really annoyed me tbh. 

1. The woman is obese

2. But the poor woman is skipping  one meal every day to make ends meet apparently.

3. Her grocery bill is £500 per month. 

 

Now I could live on Wetherspoons every bloody day for that with a massive breakfast and a main meal packing in 4,000 calories a day. I certainly wouldn't be starving. Indeed me and the wife spend a mere £125 per month on groceries because we cook from scratch. Yes I could teach the  granny how to suck eggs.

 

You've guessed it, it is the bloody Independent. Why the heck should we feel sorry for a granny that spends eight fold on groceries what me and the wife manage on.

 

I really give up this left wing propaganda and this crazy country sometimes.

Somebody on here referred to these folk as feeders, harsh but heck it makes me cynical and angry.

 

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/saving-and-banking/manage-my-money-grandmother-poor-money-ann-summers-parties-2389006

 

 

In my experience anyone with Purple hair has a Smooth Brain.

[DoINeedOne]

 

29 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Biggest one to date, that's a lot of subbies who are going to be hopping mad when they don't get paid.  Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, which a lot of companies have forgotten in race to bottom.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2023/06/08/henry-construction-sites-grind-to-a-halt/

Anger is definitely rising.

In the last few days, the firm’s major sites ground to a halt with clients and subcontractors left in the dark about Henry’s problems.

Amid the recent confusion, at least two Henry site managers are said to have been assaulted in recent days by fuming subbies seeking payment.

The Enquirer has been told that plant and machinery has also disappeared from many sites in the last fortnight.

One rival main contractor said: “Henry’s have been buying work for years and it all seems to have come to ahead as soaring costs and labour caught up with the firm.

“I feel sorry for everybody caught up in this mess, but clients must ask themselves what role they played going with such low bids.”

An insider said he had been told the preliminary list of trade creditors already totalled around £50m.

He added: “Talk is the amount owed could go to £100m and as many as 400 firms could be hit.

“Henry’s tended to go with many smaller specialist contractors rather than big package firms so its going to send shock ways through the industry.”

An out-of-pocket subcontractor, said: “It got to the point where the only way to get paid was to threaten to walk off the job or join the queue filing a winding up petitions.

“It’s been bad for months and a lot of us saw what was coming but we were in to deep to get out.”

A manager lured to join Henry just a fortnight ago to help manage second fit at a London tower, said: “They promised me very good pay,  so I left the firm I’ve been with for years and now I’ve got nothing. I’m furious.”

Established by Mark Henry, aged 45,  Henry Construction started out as a RC frame contractor, growing fast and taking on bigger jobs to become a residential tower main contractor, mainly around London, but with big jobs also dotted around the country from Southampton to Manchester.

Last year Henry reported revenue had topped £400m for the first time generating a £14m pre-tax profit, compared to just five years ago when turnover stood at £111m. In latest accounts, the firm said it employed just 49 staff.

Henry had at least 30 jobs on the go where it was main contractor. Many were running months late as payment disputes slowed progress on projects.

The 225 City Road project, known as The Arc, where Henry was six months late on programme facing monthly LADs of over £1m

Henry Construction Projects is the second firm to collapse run by Mark Henry. His previous firm Lancsville went down in 2009 owing £23m.

Set up by his father William Henry in 1976 as a concrete frame contractor, Mark Henry took over running the business in 2002, growing the business into a design and build contractor lifting revenue from £20m to £140m.

It operated alongside then smaller firms Henry Construction and Henry Cranes which also fell into administration.

Lancsville was also under seige from winding up petitions at the time before buckling to call in administrators from FRP Advisory.

Henry Construction Projects, set up in September 2010, bought some of the failed firms’ assets in February 2011 paying £210,000.

--------------------------------

 

Fucking hell, When I was a carpenter I saw a fair share of subbies lost their shit when not getting paid, alot time their work can be unpredictable and whilst earning a decent days pay they live pay check to pay check 

There's alot guy struggling with mental health in construction and ready to blow

A friend of my was working for a guy who had all these big contracts in London but my friend was always getting fucked around come pay day

million pound projects

He found out late the profit the guy was making was about £10,000 per project, but the stress was mental

You hear again and again how some companies grow to fast or to big, when you could had a great company staying smaller and lean

 

Last year Henry reported revenue had topped £400m for the first time generating a £14m pre-tax profit, compared to just five years ago when turnover stood at £111m. In latest accounts, the firm said it employed just 49 staff.

So what's that a 3.5% profit margin before tax, one small delay, problem, expense and it gets eating up

like this bit

The 225 City Road project, known as The Arc, where Henry was six months late on programme facing monthly LADs of over £1m

Edited June 13, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[Pip321]

20 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I think here is an example of welfare driving food inflation. This article really annoyed me tbh. 

1. The woman is obese

2. But the poor woman is skipping  one meal every day to make ends meet apparently.

3. Her grocery bill is £500 per month. 

 

Now I could live on Wetherspoons every bloody day for that with a massive breakfast and a main meal packing in 4,000 calories a day. I certainly wouldn't be starving. Indeed me and the wife spend a mere £125 per month on groceries because we cook from scratch. Yes I could teach the  granny how to suck eggs.

 

You've guessed it, it is the bloody Independent. Why the heck should we feel sorry for a granny that spends eight fold on groceries what me and the wife manage on.

 

I really give up this left wing propaganda and this crazy country sometimes.

Somebody on here referred to these folk as feeders, harsh but heck it makes me cynical and angry.

 

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/saving-and-banking/manage-my-money-grandmother-poor-money-ann-summers-parties-2389006

 

 

Thx for highlighting.

Caveat, just for clarity she lost one of her sons when he was 30, if the story was about how she never recovered from that and her finances fell apart, then that's a different ball game. My greatest fear and how any parent carries on after a tragedy is beyond me, so this isn't personal...the story is about money so I will focus on money. 

Okay, she is 77...but quick review here. 

£314.24 in pension credit a month. State pension of £856 a month. I receive about £500 a month in housing benefit, which covers my rent. Doesn't pay council tax. 

That's £1670 per month and say £180 council tax, so £1850 pcm coming in as benefits. 

Wait though, some other mentions in the expenditure ie electric car but she has mobility allowance and bear in mind the housing benefit and council tax are tax free, no student loan to repay and no costs travelling to travelling to work. 

First house bought in 1965 for £1650, appreciate she lost her hubby (again very sadly) but not sure where the house went. 

Outgoings

Rent and council tax covered by housing benefit, £500; charging my electric car, which I have via Motability, £30; I don’t pay any council tax.

So actual outgoings (some generously included) - £774

groceries and personal items, £422; gas and electric, £176; BT broadband and TV, £53;Paramount Plus, £6.99; mobile phone bill, £37; water, £13; home insurance, £20.55; life insurance, £23.39; pet insurance, £14.71; hairdresser, £30; eating and drinking out, around £27. I try to add £50 a week to savings for emergencies.

Other outgoings (ie spending)  - £51

online games, £6.90; Independent Age Lottery, £4; cleaner once a month, £40; 

So lets not double count the rent and mobility £1850 less £530 is £1320 with council, tax and rent paid. 

£1320 minus outgoings £774 (which includes eating out and hairdressers) leaves £546 ?

No wonder she is smiling. And how she cant buy a £400 recliner is therefore beyond me. Sure some of my maths will be wrong

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

I think here is an example of welfare driving food inflation. This article really annoyed me tbh. 

1. The woman is obese

2. But the poor woman is skipping  one meal every day to make ends meet apparently.

3. Her grocery bill is £500 per month. 

 

Now I could live on Wetherspoons every bloody day for that with a massive breakfast and a main meal packing in 4,000 calories a day. I certainly wouldn't be starving. Indeed me and the wife spend a mere £125 per month on groceries because we cook from scratch. Yes I could teach the  granny how to suck eggs.

 

You've guessed it, it is the bloody Independent. Why the heck should we feel sorry for a granny that spends eight fold on groceries what me and the wife manage on.

 

I really give up this left wing propaganda and this crazy country sometimes.

Somebody on here referred to these folk as feeders, harsh but heck it makes me cynical and angry.

 

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/saving-and-banking/manage-my-money-grandmother-poor-money-ann-summers-parties-2389006

 

 

So she gets £1200 a month plus her rent paid,instead of moaning she should be overjoyed that working younger people fund her a nice lifestyle,and whats wrong with two meals a day,thats what i usually have,and we spend arounnd £200 a month now for two.Notice she has that made up classic Fibrowhatever .More like general not looking after yourself.

Sadly there are huge numbers of working age now on bennies and will continue on them until we collapse.

Notice today as we predicted wages rising with the BOE scratching its head. "Surprise wage increases"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65876822

Guess what,still lower than bennies by 3%,so ongoing transfer of workers earnings to freeloaders,so pushing the workers to demand much higher wages or remove their labour.

Of course we know the policy makers are clueless,both BOE and polos,so we simply have to roadmap things,until the inputs change.The best thing would be a quick collapse,because the slower one my roadmap shows only keeps going because they take everything first,they transfer all wealth to the none producing.

The key thing causing this is civil service etc have inflation linked pensions,so they are the last to lose,and they have no reason to change hence why they dont even push through government policy.

My partners council place has dozens off on long term sick who are close to retiring.They just take 6 months a year,go back,then have 30 holidays to use in 6 months,repeat until council sack them,usually years.

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Biggest one to date, that's a lot of subbies who are going to be hopping mad when they don't get paid.  Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, which a lot of companies have forgotten in race to bottom.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2023/06/08/henry-construction-sites-grind-to-a-halt/

Anger is definitely rising.

Canary in the coalmine company.

Reports of £100m this time from that article.

Henry Construction Projects is the second firm to collapse run by Mark Henry. His previous firm Lancsville went down in 2009 owing £23m.

Edited June 13, 2023 by onlyme

[MrXxxx]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

So she gets £1200 a month plus her rent paid,instead of moaning she should be overjoyed

This is the issue. Due to a) a benefits culture that has become ingrained, and b) devaluing of personal dignity, people on benefits no longer keep quiet and appreciate how fortunate they are.Instead they have a sense of entitlement, and believe that whatever they want/others have they should have too, even if it means that someone else has to pay for it....I can remember a relative once complaining at a family event about how low his benefit was. I then pointed out that in some Third World countries that I had worked/lived in if you didn't work you didn't eat and slept on the streets, and perhaps he should consider getting a job if he wanted to improve his standard of living....needless to say I never heard his whinging again!

[MrXxxx]

20 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Been watching this one as VERY INTERESTED in Thungela Resources...

I'm saying nothing!..:-)))

[invalid]

1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

 

1. The woman is obese

2. But the poor woman is skipping  one meal every day to make ends meet apparently.

3. Her grocery bill is £500 per month. 

 

 

 

 

I wonder which meal she is skipping?

Brunch?

Mid morning snack?

Elevenses?

Second dinner?

Afternoon coffee and cake?

 

[Heart's Ease]

10 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Yes arab land no longer approve of west. The video sums up their view now of the west

They moving fast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just to pull another one out of that thread. Fascinating to see the positioning/narrative shifting in the non Western media.

Thanks for posting.

 

[Plan-b]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The best thing would be a quick collapse

I've been thinking and saying the same for years.

These feckers will not stop until the whole everything shit show collapses and they are then removed and replaced or forced to change.

That includes Government, Housing, Banking and Finance and more the great purge of many years of madness will happen and history has many such examples, perhaps thats why history is being erased by woke bullshit.

[Sue Lowe]

7 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I then pointed out that in some Third World countries that I had worked/lived in if you didn't work you didn't eat and slept on the streets, and perhaps he should consider getting a job if he wanted to improve his standard of living....needless to say I never heard his whinging again!

People are being deprived of so many opportunities due to our benefits culture. It can be incredibly rewarding to be in a position where you have to be self sufficient. Did we forget that necessity is the mother of invention? All that undeveloped talent and creativity killed by "kindness".

[Eventually Right]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Of course we know the policy makers are clueless,both BOE and polos,so we simply have to roadmap things,until the inputs change.The best thing would be a quick collapse,because the slower one my roadmap shows only keeps going because they take everything first,they transfer all wealth to the none producing.

 

It's fucking bleak to think that it might be better for us if everything fell to pieces in the next 6 months, because the alternative is worse... 

I wish I could disagree with your logic.

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, Sue Lowe said:

People are being deprived of so many opportunities due to our benefits culture. It can be incredibly rewarding to be in a position where you have to be self sufficient. Did we forget that necessity is the mother of invention? All that undeveloped talent and creativity killed by "kindness".

It is much worse than that - for those that do have jobs their outgoings are crushing their ability to flourish,  those that are go-getting, have good ideas, willing to take risk for new startups / ventures without free cashflow or reserves thanks to the current situation simply can't.