Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[HousePriceMania]

Sunak's now in the lead...

 

[Xtal]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

Sunak's now in the lead...

 

It’s still lag from the mini budget

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sunak's now in the lead...

 

Will we see pension funds issues again or did they get bailed enough last time?

[Calcutta]

7 minutes ago, Xtal said:

It’s still lag from the mini budget

*Disastrous mini budget

[Plan-b]

47 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

 

I wonder which meal she is skipping?

Brunch?

Mid morning snack?

Elevenses?

Second dinner?

Afternoon coffee and cake?

 

It must be Supper...

[Sugarlips]

 

 

[reformed nice guy]

4 hours ago, desertorchid said:

 

UK Economy in rude health? Unemployment rate must be pretty close to full employment at these levels. Earnings up 6.5% surely means we are now approaching an overlap where real wages may be seen as positive in the next few months.

Devils advocate I know but the quantitative measures do not show an economy anywhere near approaching some kind of disintegration.

 

RPI is 11.4% and CPI is 8.7%. If we split the difference at 10%, there is still plenty to go.

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

It's still really early days with EV technology, and especially battery chemistry - I'd be very wary of looking at the technologies in products being sold today and drawing firm conclusions about how that plays out even a few years from now, let alone decades.

New battery chemistries are popping up all the time. LiFePO4 isn't that new but is starting to muscle out NCM chemistries (the one that needs rare minerals) in some applications. It's quite possible LiFePO4 ends up well-suited for haulage (hydrogen is looking very unlikely now).

https://www.designnews.com/automotive-engineering/pros-and-cons-lithium-iron-phosphate-ev-batteries

As for grid capacity - the (predominantly) overnight demand for EV charging should work out as an assist for the grid, because it will go a long way towards equalising day/night demand.

Think fewer "peaker" plants, more nuclear. That's if we can get past this obsession with wind and solar (which inevitably means more peakers - doh).

That is useful information and I accept offers perhaps a better perspective on potential energy needs and battery technology (However battery range seems to be stubbornly stuck at 200 miles max. especially for family type/cost cars). But I do think the other important limiting factor will be future commodity prices and greater scarcity, especially as BRICS demand more commods for their own developing economies.

Given EV prices I'd expect market saturation for EVs to peak at something like 25%, evan with generous government subsidy. Currently EVs represent 5% of all UK cars on the road; and only 1% globally. I myself did expect that the numbers would have been much higher by now, but the EV product (and self driving, etc) was massively over-hyped. Tesla being the elephant in the car-port(!). Even last night's Panorama was surprisingly negative about EV take up, targets and convenience (is this I wonder part of the green 'expedition management' pivot?).

As an aside, the practicalities of overnight charging are complicated because, for example, less than 80% UK household live in houses, remainder are flats. These issues are never much mentioned, but in terms of affordability are important because overnight home charging (£8/100 mile charge) is approx one-third the cost of using rapid charging.

It's impossible to predict this stuff I know but rather significantly I do note that Toyota say they will continue to make hybrid cars for Asia and apparently don't foresee the end of the combustion engine any time soon...   

 ----Maybe  'THE AGE OF THE CAR IS (not over, but) ASIA !!!'

 I note Toyota say they will continue making hybrid ice cars, 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by JMD

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Latest UK yields. Notice that the biggest increases over the last month have been in the 2, 5 and 10 years. 10 years now cheaper than 5 years. The inversion has moved further along the curve. Peak is currently at 6 months. Are traders anticipating risk by the end of the year?

[Sugarlips]

4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Latest UK yields. Notice that the biggest increases over the last month have been in the 2, 5 and 10 years. 10 years now cheaper than 5 years. The inversion has moved further along the curve. Peak is currently at 6 months. Are traders anticipating risk by the end of the year?

BoE to go 50 bps?

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

VOD share price now below August 1995 price.

It's hitting my portfolio quite badly now.

Should we bail on it or persevere ?

[TNS]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

VOD share price now below August 1995 price.

It's hitting my portfolio quite badly now.

Should we bail on it or persevere ?

until the divi is cut, i ain't bothered despite being down almost 40%

[leonardratso]

re you guys with dc stakeholder landg work pnesions, I asked them this;

Is there any chance of ever getting any better funds in the stakeholder pension selection, i know years ago you messed up and accidentally let me buy gold and silver funds before you backed me out and put me back in rubbish like UK sterling lifestyle funds, ok fair enough, risky, but how about some south east asia/indian subcontinent, far east and other emerging market funds? Of my ISA and sipp outside of this work pension im powering ahead in those types of funds, really miss that kind of thing here, the melon funds provide some limited exposure to oil and commodities but not a great deal.
PS. when i say far east im not talking about 50% equity in Australia or Newzealand.

And they replied;
 

Good Afternoon,

Thank you for your message.

The Fund Centre will be updated when new fund become available to the Stakeholder Pension
Scheme. you can browse available funds in the investments tab of your online account.
There are no changes/ updates due in the near future.

If you need anything further please let us know. You can contact us on our webchat
facility which is open Monday Friday 9-5. You can find this via your online account by
clicking the green help icon at the bottom of page.

Kind regards,

[leonardratso]

so its a case of shut up dweeb, we never mess up and if we do its your fault for being a mouthy cunt.

the range of funds i can swap out to are really shit, theres 52 in all and many seem to be funds of funds, plus they are very hard to get any breakdown out of, key facts documents might as well just be a pdf that says 'this is a fund' and thats it.
 

[spunko]

 

Part 6 is starting.