Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[CannonFodder]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

A new twist on go woke go broke 

They already are 

 

Quite a few of the big boys doing this - gotta spend those esg pension funds somehow

 

https://www.globalcapital.com/article/28mu2zmpbzzfa6x7gmbk0/investment-grade-loans/sustainable-lending-breaks-new-ground-as-wsp-signs

 

[No One]

On 10/06/2023 at 08:13, crashmonitor said:

Interest Rate Armegeddon UK..... I came across this yesterday. I was surprised he had gotten so many youtube hits. But his delivery is quite amusing. He is a retired London trader but he sounds like a mad American scientist that goes into Beavis and Butt head style giggles as he lays on the doom.

 

Did get me thinking why the heck aren't traders going for a 1992  style turkey shoot ( led by George Soros) whence base rates jumped from 10 to 15% overnight.  Is there a Bankers code that means Central Banking turkeys like Bailey are exempt. Come on we are in a league of our own along with Turkey ( base rate 8.5%)  and Argentina (97%) in the incompetence stakes.

 

 

 

Because the pound is free floating and not tied to the Deutschemark via the ERM like it was in the 80s. Look it up.

[Axeman123]

Speaking of the ESG endgame, ZH has this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/esg-dystopia-why-corporations-are-doubling-down-woke-even-they-lose-billions

which can be summarised in one quote IMO:

Quote

Twenty years ago, the name of the game in the business world was “brand building.” If you could build your brand and gain market loyalty you could sustain your profit model for decades to come. Now, corporations are actually willing to destroy the very brands they spent so much time and money developing all in the name of political idolatry.

It seems like pure madness, but what if they know something we don’t? What if they are riding out an engineered economic crisis so that they can be rewarded later with “too woke to fail” riches? My theory is that while ESG lending appears to be dying today, tomorrow ESG lending will be the only way any company will be able to survive

Which is an interesting idea. This thread has already discussed centrally directed or rationed credit and targetted lending to onshore etc. Taking this idea forward DEI may be seen as essential to reshape the economy and society for what lies ahead. The destruction of brands like Bud light, and institutional knowledge the market by replacing competent CEOs with novice woke morons like occurred at John Lewis makes total sense if competition and consumer choice will be phased out. The importance of a strong "brand" ie wokeness in the political sphere trumping actual consumer goodwill makes total sense if the consumer won't be significant to future profits. The obsession with promoting diversity is obviously intended to prepare the ground for immigration on a scale unimaginable even today, as immigration is the politicians' answer to everything. If the population doubles in under a decade via immigration then obviously half the population at that point wouldn't give a shit about legacy brands anyway.

The social media in the 2020 US election is probably a good outline of what is envisioned. As discussed on here big platforms like Twitter were privately owned and free to do anything on paper, and yet with the threat of net neutrality or anti-trust political interference they were in effect captured by the deep state. Platforms like Twitter and Facebook operated like state sanctioned monopolies, and didn't really compete IMO instead staying in their respective lanes. If you look at the way Musk has broadened the Twitter platform by adding video and long-form text features it is clear IMO that the previous incarnation was operating within a defined metaphorical "territory" (a bit like a travelling salesman) rather than seeking actual competition.

[CannonFodder]

16 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Speaking of the ESG endgame, ZH has this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/esg-dystopia-why-corporations-are-doubling-down-woke-even-they-lose-billions

which can be summarised in one quote IMO:

Which is an interesting idea. This thread has already discussed centrally directed or rationed credit and targetted lending to onshore etc. Taking this idea forward DEI may be seen as essential to reshape the economy and society for what lies ahead. The destruction of brands like Bud light, and institutional knowledge the market by replacing competent CEOs with novice woke morons like occurred at John Lewis makes total sense if competition and consumer choice will be phased out. The importance of a strong "brand" ie wokeness in the political sphere trumping actual consumer goodwill makes total sense if the consumer won't be significant to future profits. The obsession with promoting diversity is obviously intended to prepare the ground for immigration on a scale unimaginable even today, as immigration is the politicians' answer to everything. If the population doubles in under a decade via immigration then obviously half the population at that point wouldn't give a shit about legacy brands anyway.

The social media in the 2020 US election is probably a good outline of what is envisioned. As discussed on here big platforms like Twitter were privately owned and free to do anything on paper, and yet with the threat of net neutrality or anti-trust political interference they were in effect captured by the deep state. Platforms like Twitter and Facebook operated like state sanctioned monopolies, and didn't really compete IMO instead staying in their respective lanes. If you look at the way Musk has broadened the Twitter platform by adding video and long-form text features it is clear IMO that the previous incarnation was operating within a defined metaphorical "territory" (a bit like a travelling salesman) rather than seeking actual competition.

Propose looking at this through lens that Western Gov policy whether deliberable or unintentional is to create and be a gayer more retarded version of The USSR .

In each SSR, media is owned and the states tentacles get into industry. Private sector is planned. Shops will have two choices - too big or too small but doesnt matter anyway as out of stock.

People can move between the SSRs without borders as we level down to the point no one will want to as all equally shit

They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.

To facilitate the leap to new values, old values are burned.

Uk SSR has a bit to go but will catch up on the US. House price figures and GDP sheanigans will be used in leiu of tractor production to placate the masses

Then it will collapse much sooner than the original USSR as its more retarded and the elites oligarchs will make out like bandits.

 

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You mean to say there’s an ulterior motive other than money being pushed from the top? Never. 

 

Well look how target shares are doing or the parent company of Budweiser for that matter 

You are all for CBDC`s are about control,take a look at what FED now is all about 

[JMD]

16 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

It has good points as a technology but it’s so far off being practical. Decades away IMO. You’d have to run a chemical plant and a nuclear plant on the same site. 

I suspect that we are being misled by the Bill Gates types again. 
We have a solution that would pretty much solve our problems. The conventional PWR. 

Thanks for your reply. This is the SMR molten salt podcast. I understand if you haven't the time to watch it, and do also appreciate what you mean by those 'Bill Gates types', but this company engineer guy does seem genuine (I know, they all do!!).

I think the point being pushed is that these reactors can be installed quickly, locally/'tactically' and at scale, whereas PWRs would take 10+ years. The host David Hay states he is invested in the company that the guy being interviewed is from so might be biased, however in more general terms, I can't help returning to the thought that this type of (recently reclassified) 'green energy' will be used by Western countries to quickly plug their increasing energy gap. 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by JMD

[Transistor Man]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think the point being pushed is that these reactors can be installed quickly, locally/'tactically' and at scale, whereas PWRs would take 10+ years. The host David Hay states he is invested in the company that the guy being interviewed is from so might be biased, however in more general terms, I can't help returning to the thought that this type of (recently reclassified) 'green energy' will be used by Western countries to quickly plug their increasing energy gap. 

Thanks for the link. I will try and watch it all this evening. 

The problem with these things is that there’s nothing wrong with the reactor physics and the concept.

The problems are things like materials: What do the hot, corrosive molten salts do to the steel vessel and pipe work? 
 

We have no idea. But they will probably corrode and leak. How long will that take? Who knows. 
 

You might find, what’s needed is something like ODS strengthened nickel superalloys or something exotic. These aren’t ready to go materials systems. they will have to be developed.

there’s nothing wrong with these reactor concepts, but there’s a long way to go from Paper designs to deployed plant. 
 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Transistor Man

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

Well look how target shares are doing or the parent company of Budweiser for that matter 

You are all for CBDC`s are about control,take a look at what FED now is all about 

I was being facetious  hence the Stonetoss meme.

I’m sure the majority of the mainstream center of right of the world by now realises that certain ‘narratives’ are being pushed.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Long time lurking]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I was being facetious  hence the Stonetoss meme.

I’m sure the majority of the mainstream center of right of the world by now realises that certain ‘narratives’ are being pushed.

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Speaking of the ESG endgame, ZH has this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/esg-dystopia-why-corporations-are-doubling-down-woke-even-they-lose-billions

which can be summarised in one quote IMO:

Which is an interesting idea. This thread has already discussed centrally directed or rationed credit and targetted lending to onshore etc. Taking this idea forward DEI may be seen as essential to reshape the economy and society for what lies ahead. The destruction of brands like Bud light, and institutional knowledge the market by replacing competent CEOs with novice woke morons like occurred at John Lewis makes total sense if competition and consumer choice will be phased out. The importance of a strong "brand" ie wokeness in the political sphere trumping actual consumer goodwill makes total sense if the consumer won't be significant to future profits. The obsession with promoting diversity is obviously intended to prepare the ground for immigration on a scale unimaginable even today, as immigration is the politicians' answer to everything. If the population doubles in under a decade via immigration then obviously half the population at that point wouldn't give a shit about legacy brands anyway.

The social media in the 2020 US election is probably a good outline of what is envisioned. As discussed on here big platforms like Twitter were privately owned and free to do anything on paper, and yet with the threat of net neutrality or anti-trust political interference they were in effect captured by the deep state. Platforms like Twitter and Facebook operated like state sanctioned monopolies, and didn't really compete IMO instead staying in their respective lanes. If you look at the way Musk has broadened the Twitter platform by adding video and long-form text features it is clear IMO that the previous incarnation was operating within a defined metaphorical "territory" (a bit like a travelling salesman) rather than seeking actual competition.

Speaking of frightening ESG endgames. A perhaps 'slightly(actually and worryingly not really !) tangential' comment...

I recently watched 'Look Who's Back', it's a German black-comedy film about the reappearance of Hitler in modern Germany. Sounds weird but It's actually funny and makes many dark insightful obervations. For example the Hitler character is asked which political party is for him the most interesting. He instantly dismisses all the right-wing parties and instead expresses admiration for the Green Party which he says has potential !!

Anyway it can be viewed here...

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by JMD

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Remember when being left wing used to be about being anti-government, anti-big corp, anti-big pharma, anti-war?

Yeah, powerful thing the media.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Lightscribe

[M S E Refugee]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Remember when being left wing used to be about being anti-government, anti-big corp, anti-big pharma, anti-war?

Yeah, powerful thing the media.

 

Poor graphic design lost Hitler the War, this is what he should have gone with.

 

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Poor graphic design lost Hitler the War, this is what he should have gone with.

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Thanks for your reply. This is the SMR molten salt podcast. I understand if you haven't the time to watch it, and do also appreciate what you mean by those 'Bill Gates types', but this company engineer guy does seem genuine (I know, they all do!!).

I think the point being pushed is that these reactors can be installed quickly, locally/'tactically' and at scale, whereas PWRs would take 10+ years. The host David Hay states he is invested in the company that the guy being interviewed is from so might be biased, however in more general terms, I can't help returning to the thought that this type of (recently reclassified) 'green energy' will be used by Western countries to quickly plug their increasing energy gap. 

The bit they miss out is the salt is highly corrosive and Reactor material has to be able to withstand that at high temperature without leaking.  Multiple nations have tried it, every one has leaked and uranium filled corrosive salt, that is very very radioactive, dripping out of your reactor is not a great problem to have.

Moltex had a good crack at fixing some of the problems from what I've seen, but the tech is not going to get proved in UK, with Canada looking very closely at it atm.

[MrXxxx]

Active retail investment...a fools game?

SOURCE ARTICLE https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/costs-are-certain-so-what-happens

SOURCE SCIENTIFIC PDF https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12181135/Pension-funds-hit-buffers-rout-bond-markets.html

Direct transfer of savings from the private sector.Anyone in lifestyle funds within 10 years of retiring will also of been slaughtered.You really do have to question why idiot trustees just invested in gilts,it was obvious they were one of the worst things in the world to invest in.I took a CETV and moved a final salary pension when rates were below 1%,and even then bozo IFAs tried to talk me out of it etc,the classic line from most "there is no rush,you can transfer closer to retirement",that CETV will of been cut in half now and iv doubled the transfer value since.

The thing with gilts now is are they still a trap even with bigger yields?.

The theft from government in the UK is incredible.

[M S E Refugee]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12181135/Pension-funds-hit-buffers-rout-bond-markets.html

Direct transfer of savings from the private sector.Anyone in lifestyle funds within 10 years of retiring will also of been slaughtered.You really do have to question why idiot trustees just invested in gilts,it was obvious they were one of the worst things in the world to invest in.I took a CETV and moved a final salary pension when rates were below 1%,and even then bozo IFAs tried to talk me out of it etc,the classic line from most "there is no rush,you can transfer closer to retirement",that CETV will of been cut in half now and iv doubled the transfer value since.

The thing with gilts now is are they still a trap even with bigger yields?.

The theft from government in the UK is incredible.

I have annual investment reports for my Royal Mail Final Salary Scheme from the early 90's and 60% of the Pension was invested in Stocks, it had so much money in it Royal Mail stopped paying to it for around 7 years for tax reasons.

After September 11th struck,  the trustees decided to move it to around 93% into Government debt then a few short years later they had to shut the Final Salary down because it had lost value and was unaffordable.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by M S E Refugee

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have annual investment reports for my Royal Mail Final Salary Scheme from the early 90's and 60% of the Pension was invested in Stocks, it had so much money in it Royal Mail stopped paying to it for around 7 years for tax reasons.

After September 11th struck,  the trustees decided to move it to around 93% into Government debt then a few short years later they had to shut the Final Salary down because it had lost value and was unaffordable.

 

Direct theft without consequences. Makes Robert Maxwell look like a saint.

[Axeman123]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Direct transfer of savings from the private sector.

For balance though artificially smashing gilt yields down from historically typical 5% to 0.5% over the 2008-16 period will have been a wealth transfer in the opposite direction. In a limited sense it cancels out, unless of course you have been nearing retirement over that period and your lifestyle fund has been increasing your gilt exposure at ever richer valuations over that time.

15 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

it had so much money in it Royal Mail stopped paying to it for around 7 years for tax reasons.

shocking to think.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

For balance though artificially smashing gilt yields down from historically typical 5% to 0.5% over the 2008-16 period will have been a wealth transfer in the opposite direction. In a limited sense it cancels out, unless of course you have been nearing retirement over that period and your lifestyle fund has been increasing your gilt exposure at ever richer valuations over that time.

shocking to think.

Yes,but they were low gilts in 08,they increased holdings hugely during the cycle.Legal and General have taken on a lot of DB pensions etc,it will be interesting to see if they remain solvent.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

That is a powerful composite image.

Reminds me that the left were once against flags of all types, then suddenly and strangely embraced the (global/ist) Rainbow Flag of many colours (...and of dubious/non-specific meaning).

Edited June 11, 2023 by JMD

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

That is a powerful composite image.

Reminds me that the left were once against flags of all types, then suddenly and strangely embraced the (global/ist) Rainbow Flag of many colours (...and of dubious/non-specific meaning).

No but it's different now, it's the Good Guys™ doing it

[Chewing Grass]

We are fucked now I've looked at it, in a post FIAT bullshit world we have 8X less Au than the French and 11X less than the Germans, just a country increasingly full of useless eaters.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves

[Axeman123]

Interesting short (30 min) Hugh Hendry vid, among other things discussing onshoring and national champions. He actually makes a really compelling case for Qualcomm.

 

[wherebee]

Be aware that the end of the Australian tax year is approaching, and retail investors often liquidate loss positions to crystallise a loss they can offset against gains.  This can result in downward pressure on aussie stocks.  This year I suspect there are some aussie miners and oil/gas companies which will allow a paper loss over the year....