Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Wealthy boomers still got plenty of dosh, their next in the distribution crosshairs

 

At the moment. They all die eventually. Then pass the cash to new boomers. Then they die after the holiday, cat sanctuary donation, new PCP  car deal, macdonald's. It may take some time. 

[Wight Flight]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Wealthy boomers still got plenty of dosh, their next in the distribution crosshairs

 

I can't really hate them. They are good for selling to.

silverSurfers.co.uk is a great place to advertise.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I can't really hate them. They are good for selling to.

silverSurfers.co.uk is a great place to advertise.

Yeah I don't hate them as I'm semi silversurfer myself, but when everything wealth has been consumed by government in the quest for other peoples assets in this distribution cycle, it will be the wealthy boomers last of all. The government will take everything in the end.

[Transistor Man]

21 hours ago, JMD said:

What do you think of SMR molten salt reactor tech? 

It has good points as a technology but it’s so far off being practical. Decades away IMO. You’d have to run a chemical plant and a nuclear plant on the same site. 

I suspect that we are being misled by the Bill Gates types again. 
We have a solution that would pretty much solve our problems. The conventional PWR. 

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I was thinking about this.

I guess most younger working people had a couple of hundred £ after costs every month for niceties.

Mortgages have gone up by this amount on average. As have rents (from what i see, rent hasn't risen by a % but by about £200 whatever the property).

That leaves nothing. 

Boomers are still fine, but they don't spend enough to make up for the lack of spend from everyone else.

 

I enjoy not spending next week will be a cheap week I can only get drunk 2 nights .

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happened with the tories ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65866187

Third by-election for Tories as Boris Johnson ally quits

Are they all upset about Sunak raising interest rates ? 

One trader I follow on twitter says he's going to short the FTSE on Monday.

Sounds like an idiot.FTSE gains from a weak sterling.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I'm quite a lot down but agree for the future and I'm not selling.

Accompanied a female friend today on a "shopping for a dress" trip. Every bloke knows what that's like and it was predictable being amongst other bored-looking men hanging around the fitting rooms. First time I have "gone shopping" for ages, probably since before covid, and I was surprised how quiet it was in the actual shop. Friend is fairly well-off (paid over 300 quid for two frocks) but for an otherwise busy Saturday afternoon there didn't seem to be many actual spenders. Packed with people in the street watching musicians and so on but shops empty. Could just have been the sun I suppose.

Chat with friend and she is not happy with a few incidents recently when they decided to have a day out somewhere and found a charming restaurant only to find that drinks were OK but sorry no meals due to lack of staff. Tried to explain why that could happen and I think it is slowly dawning.

Iv got a big holding in them and down about £9k.but £3k after divs.Not ideal,but i bought them out of things that had trebled and didnt ladder very well.Iv been positioning lately without any thought to ladders etc simply because im prepared to lose x amount to get out of the UK as much as i can.

[Plan-b]

The Canary Wharf in the coalmine. Commercial property is wobbling and even the most prestigious UK financial centre is feeling the pinch with the likes of HSBC considering leaving, ESG building upgrade costs spiralling and the WFH movement all conspiring as the Wharf faces a cocktail of challenges that poses a threat to its future as the UKs financial hub. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/11/canary-wharf-london-margaret-thatcher-legacy/

[wherebee]

4 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

The Canary Wharf in the coalmine. Commercial property is wobbling and even the most prestigious UK financial centre is feeling the pinch with the likes of HSBC considering leaving, ESG building upgrade costs spiralling and the WFH movement all conspiring as the Wharf faces a cocktail of challenges that poses a threat to its future as the UKs financial hub. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/11/canary-wharf-london-margaret-thatcher-legacy/

Canary Wharf only worked when a number of factors came together.  

 

1 - access to the Uk financial system, including the eurodollar and insurance, were seen by the rest of the world as must haves

2 - technology still required a number of humans in banking firms to 'do stuff', and required them to be together physically to do so

3 - getting to and from canary wharf from around london and the commuter belts was predictable and mostly safe

4 - Uk gvts moved slowly to impose new taxes and regulations impacting the finsec

5 - for the bosses, London was a place of choice to live and raise a family

 

All five are now no longer the case.  I would predict Canary Wharf is going to turn into a  finsec slum, like many US cities CBDs I have been too - huge towering buildings, lots of empty shops, rough sleepers.

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Canary Wharf only worked when a number of factors came together.  

 

1 - access to the Uk financial system, including the eurodollar and insurance, were seen by the rest of the world as must haves

2 - technology still required a number of humans in banking firms to 'do stuff', and required them to be together physically to do so

3 - getting to and from canary wharf from around london and the commuter belts was predictable and mostly safe

4 - Uk gvts moved slowly to impose new taxes and regulations impacting the finsec

5 - for the bosses, London was a place of choice to live and raise a family

 

All five are now no longer the case.  I would predict Canary Wharf is going to turn into a  finsec slum, like many US cities CBDs I have been too - huge towering buildings, lots of empty shops, rough sleepers.

All this. But also not just Canary Wharf. Canary Wharf went on an epic scale of building of luxury flats around the Docklands, but so have the likes of Stratford, Vauxhall etc.

Without the finsec draw, they will return to of the early 80’s and I can remember what they were like before. The scale of negative equity and loss of value in the London new build flats will be immeasurable. The spiraling service charges alone make them unsellable now, but add high mortgage rates, new build premium, fire safety certificates and ‘share to buy’ equity into the mix and it’s a one way ticket.

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

All this. But also not just Canary Wharf. Canary Wharf went on an epic scale of building of luxury flats around the Docklands, but so have the likes of Stratford, Vauxhall etc.

Without the finsec draw, they will return to of the early 80’s and I can remember what they were like before. The scale of negative equity and loss of value in the London new build flats will be immeasurable. The spiraling service charges alone make them unsellable now, but add high mortgage rates, new build premium, fire safety certificates and ‘share to buy’ equity into the mix and it’s a one way ticket.

I'm reminded of the famous anecdote of the new investor walking the newly paved and built streets and office towers in Johannesburg in the 1980s.

The experienced man he was walking with exclaimed that in the future, the same flashy business buildings would be used to house the homeless.

[Long time lurking]

A new twist on go woke go broke 

They already are 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Long time lurking

[wherebee]

26 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

A new twist on go woke go broke 

They already are 

 

Yeah, seeing this play out across much of Asia.  It's really interesting for this thread, because 'real' ESG companies who believe in this shit will, I firmly suspect, show much lower returns than hard nosed companies who just play the game, get cheap debt, but then throw more endangered parrots on the furnaces to make steel knives.

In Australia I know (I think) which banks are really believing in ESG and which are toeing just the right line to escape criticism, mainly because I know people who got into that industry and talk about it.  It will be really interesting to see if the earning start to diverge...

[Long time lurking]

21 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Yeah, seeing this play out across much of Asia.  It's really interesting for this thread, because 'real' ESG companies who believe in this shit will, I firmly suspect, show much lower returns than hard nosed companies who just play the game, get cheap debt, but then throw more endangered parrots on the furnaces to make steel knives.

In Australia I know (I think) which banks are really believing in ESG and which are toeing just the right line to escape criticism, mainly because I know people who got into that industry and talk about it.  It will be really interesting to see if the earning start to diverge...

It`s not the fact they believe in it it`s the fact they are being forced into it especially so if they need to borrow money 

The next bit might require a tinfoil hat ,but just take a look at the latest companies that went woke Budweiser and Target ,look what it has done to them ,plan ?or just un intended consequence  ? who would benefit from it if it was the former 

I have said from very early on for this shit to be shoved down everyone's throat like it has ,considering it all started at the very same time, there has to be another motive agenda behind it ,it started in exactly the same way as  covid the very same nations media all went full on, at exactly the same time , whilst the rest of the world stood back going WTF  

At first i seen it as a fad like Punk ,Mods ,Rockers etc ,but it`s clearly not that they were organic in there rise and almost country specific  

Edited June 11, 2023 by Long time lurking

[M S E Refugee]

28 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s not the fact they believe in it it`s the fact they are being forced into it especially so if they need to borrow money 

The next bit might require a tinfoil hat ,but just take a look at the latest companies that went woke Budweiser and Target ,look what it has done to them ,plan ?or just un intended consequence  ? who would benefit from it if it was the former 

I have said from very early on for this shit to be shoved down everyone's throat like it has ,considering it all started at the very same time, there has to be another motive agenda behind it ,it started in exactly the same way as  covid the very same nations media all went full on, at exactly the same time , whilst the rest of the world stood back going WTF  

At first i seen it as a fad like Punk ,Mods ,Rockers etc ,but it`s clearly not that they were organic in there rise and almost country specific  

 

 

[Long time lurking]

.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s not the fact they believe in it it`s the fact they are being forced into it especially so if they need to borrow money 

The next bit might require a tinfoil hat ,but just take a look at the latest companies that went woke Budweiser and Target ,look what it has done to them ,plan ?or just un intended consequence  ? who would benefit from it if it was the former 

I have said from very early on for this shit to be shoved down everyone's throat like it has ,considering it all started at the very same time, there has to be another motive agenda behind it ,it started in exactly the same way as  covid the very same nations media all went full on, at exactly the same time , whilst the rest of the world stood back going WTF  

At first i seen it as a fad like Punk ,Mods ,Rockers etc ,but it`s clearly not that they were organic in there rise and almost country specific  

You mean to say there’s an ulterior motive other than money being pushed from the top? Never. 

 

[CannonFodder]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

A new twist on go woke go broke 

They already are 

 

Quite a few of the big boys doing this - gotta spend those esg pension funds somehow

 

https://www.globalcapital.com/article/28mu2zmpbzzfa6x7gmbk0/investment-grade-loans/sustainable-lending-breaks-new-ground-as-wsp-signs

 

[No One]

On 10/06/2023 at 08:13, crashmonitor said:

Interest Rate Armegeddon UK..... I came across this yesterday. I was surprised he had gotten so many youtube hits. But his delivery is quite amusing. He is a retired London trader but he sounds like a mad American scientist that goes into Beavis and Butt head style giggles as he lays on the doom.

 

Did get me thinking why the heck aren't traders going for a 1992  style turkey shoot ( led by George Soros) whence base rates jumped from 10 to 15% overnight.  Is there a Bankers code that means Central Banking turkeys like Bailey are exempt. Come on we are in a league of our own along with Turkey ( base rate 8.5%)  and Argentina (97%) in the incompetence stakes.

 

 

 

Because the pound is free floating and not tied to the Deutschemark via the ERM like it was in the 80s. Look it up.

[Axeman123]

Speaking of the ESG endgame, ZH has this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/esg-dystopia-why-corporations-are-doubling-down-woke-even-they-lose-billions

which can be summarised in one quote IMO:

Quote

Twenty years ago, the name of the game in the business world was “brand building.” If you could build your brand and gain market loyalty you could sustain your profit model for decades to come. Now, corporations are actually willing to destroy the very brands they spent so much time and money developing all in the name of political idolatry.

It seems like pure madness, but what if they know something we don’t? What if they are riding out an engineered economic crisis so that they can be rewarded later with “too woke to fail” riches? My theory is that while ESG lending appears to be dying today, tomorrow ESG lending will be the only way any company will be able to survive

Which is an interesting idea. This thread has already discussed centrally directed or rationed credit and targetted lending to onshore etc. Taking this idea forward DEI may be seen as essential to reshape the economy and society for what lies ahead. The destruction of brands like Bud light, and institutional knowledge the market by replacing competent CEOs with novice woke morons like occurred at John Lewis makes total sense if competition and consumer choice will be phased out. The importance of a strong "brand" ie wokeness in the political sphere trumping actual consumer goodwill makes total sense if the consumer won't be significant to future profits. The obsession with promoting diversity is obviously intended to prepare the ground for immigration on a scale unimaginable even today, as immigration is the politicians' answer to everything. If the population doubles in under a decade via immigration then obviously half the population at that point wouldn't give a shit about legacy brands anyway.

The social media in the 2020 US election is probably a good outline of what is envisioned. As discussed on here big platforms like Twitter were privately owned and free to do anything on paper, and yet with the threat of net neutrality or anti-trust political interference they were in effect captured by the deep state. Platforms like Twitter and Facebook operated like state sanctioned monopolies, and didn't really compete IMO instead staying in their respective lanes. If you look at the way Musk has broadened the Twitter platform by adding video and long-form text features it is clear IMO that the previous incarnation was operating within a defined metaphorical "territory" (a bit like a travelling salesman) rather than seeking actual competition.

[CannonFodder]

16 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Speaking of the ESG endgame, ZH has this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/esg-dystopia-why-corporations-are-doubling-down-woke-even-they-lose-billions

which can be summarised in one quote IMO:

Which is an interesting idea. This thread has already discussed centrally directed or rationed credit and targetted lending to onshore etc. Taking this idea forward DEI may be seen as essential to reshape the economy and society for what lies ahead. The destruction of brands like Bud light, and institutional knowledge the market by replacing competent CEOs with novice woke morons like occurred at John Lewis makes total sense if competition and consumer choice will be phased out. The importance of a strong "brand" ie wokeness in the political sphere trumping actual consumer goodwill makes total sense if the consumer won't be significant to future profits. The obsession with promoting diversity is obviously intended to prepare the ground for immigration on a scale unimaginable even today, as immigration is the politicians' answer to everything. If the population doubles in under a decade via immigration then obviously half the population at that point wouldn't give a shit about legacy brands anyway.

The social media in the 2020 US election is probably a good outline of what is envisioned. As discussed on here big platforms like Twitter were privately owned and free to do anything on paper, and yet with the threat of net neutrality or anti-trust political interference they were in effect captured by the deep state. Platforms like Twitter and Facebook operated like state sanctioned monopolies, and didn't really compete IMO instead staying in their respective lanes. If you look at the way Musk has broadened the Twitter platform by adding video and long-form text features it is clear IMO that the previous incarnation was operating within a defined metaphorical "territory" (a bit like a travelling salesman) rather than seeking actual competition.

Propose looking at this through lens that Western Gov policy whether deliberable or unintentional is to create and be a gayer more retarded version of The USSR .

In each SSR, media is owned and the states tentacles get into industry. Private sector is planned. Shops will have two choices - too big or too small but doesnt matter anyway as out of stock.

People can move between the SSRs without borders as we level down to the point no one will want to as all equally shit

They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.

To facilitate the leap to new values, old values are burned.

Uk SSR has a bit to go but will catch up on the US. House price figures and GDP sheanigans will be used in leiu of tractor production to placate the masses

Then it will collapse much sooner than the original USSR as its more retarded and the elites oligarchs will make out like bandits.

 

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You mean to say there’s an ulterior motive other than money being pushed from the top? Never. 

 

Well look how target shares are doing or the parent company of Budweiser for that matter 

You are all for CBDC`s are about control,take a look at what FED now is all about 

[JMD]

16 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

It has good points as a technology but it’s so far off being practical. Decades away IMO. You’d have to run a chemical plant and a nuclear plant on the same site. 

I suspect that we are being misled by the Bill Gates types again. 
We have a solution that would pretty much solve our problems. The conventional PWR. 

Thanks for your reply. This is the SMR molten salt podcast. I understand if you haven't the time to watch it, and do also appreciate what you mean by those 'Bill Gates types', but this company engineer guy does seem genuine (I know, they all do!!).

I think the point being pushed is that these reactors can be installed quickly, locally/'tactically' and at scale, whereas PWRs would take 10+ years. The host David Hay states he is invested in the company that the guy being interviewed is from so might be biased, however in more general terms, I can't help returning to the thought that this type of (recently reclassified) 'green energy' will be used by Western countries to quickly plug their increasing energy gap. 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by JMD

[Transistor Man]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think the point being pushed is that these reactors can be installed quickly, locally/'tactically' and at scale, whereas PWRs would take 10+ years. The host David Hay states he is invested in the company that the guy being interviewed is from so might be biased, however in more general terms, I can't help returning to the thought that this type of (recently reclassified) 'green energy' will be used by Western countries to quickly plug their increasing energy gap. 

Thanks for the link. I will try and watch it all this evening. 

The problem with these things is that there’s nothing wrong with the reactor physics and the concept.

The problems are things like materials: What do the hot, corrosive molten salts do to the steel vessel and pipe work? 
 

We have no idea. But they will probably corrode and leak. How long will that take? Who knows. 
 

You might find, what’s needed is something like ODS strengthened nickel superalloys or something exotic. These aren’t ready to go materials systems. they will have to be developed.

there’s nothing wrong with these reactor concepts, but there’s a long way to go from Paper designs to deployed plant. 
 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Transistor Man

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

Well look how target shares are doing or the parent company of Budweiser for that matter 

You are all for CBDC`s are about control,take a look at what FED now is all about 

I was being facetious  hence the Stonetoss meme.

I’m sure the majority of the mainstream center of right of the world by now realises that certain ‘narratives’ are being pushed.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Lightscribe