Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

1.2 billion people live here:

They're not even thinking about a fridge yet. Imagine what they think about rich western countries telling them they can't even have a plug? Small wonder they took what China was offering. It's just monumentally stupid.

And 4.3 billion by century end, and that's if Africa's birth rate slows as predicted. So 40 million a year increase - which is surely unsustainable for a poor continent in terms of energy, expected living standards or even food...  Imo this will be the existential threat to the planet that must be solved (risk of mass exodus to Europe?), not the idiotic worries over climate change.

Edited June 10, 2023 by JMD

[janch]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

1.2 billion people live here:

They're not even thinking about a fridge yet. Imagine what they think about rich western countries telling them they can't even have a plug? Small wonder they took what China was offering. It's just monumentally stupid.

Which company is this?  Might it be one for us to invest in?

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

10 minutes ago, janch said:

Which company is this?  Might it be one for us to invest in?

 

At a guess Savannah Energy?

[Cattle Prod]

39 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

At a guess Savannah Energy?

I know little about them and am not recommending as an investment. I just liked the graphic!

[JMD]

A sobering reminder of the progress(?) made so far in our so-called green energy 'transition'...  And remember it's taken us nearly 40 years to achieve this green revolution!

Edited June 10, 2023 by JMD

[HousePriceMania]

What's happened with the tories ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65866187

Third by-election for Tories as Boris Johnson ally quits

Are they all upset about Sunak raising interest rates ? 

One trader I follow on twitter says he's going to short the FTSE on Monday.

Edited June 10, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[Long time lurking]

Drip drip 

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Eventually Right]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happened with the tories ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65866187

Third by-election for Tories as Boris Johnson ally quits

Are they all upset about Sunak raising interest rates ? 

One trader I follow on twitter says he's going to short the FTSE on Monday.

Pissy that the privileges committee was apparently gonna suspend BoJo for 10 days, triggering a by-election that he would probably have lost.

so throwing toys out of pram (also probably seeing the writing on the wall that they might well lose their seats in 15 months anyway).

If they lose all 3, might exert extra pressure on Rishi to do something more dramatic sooner, to try and give them a chance-promise to abolish IHT/raising income tax allowances etc

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

One trader I follow on twitter says he's going to short the FTSE on Monday.

If he's correct then the pound will likely get taken to the woodshed.

Got Gold?

[Eventually Right]

3 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

If he's correct then the pound will likely get taken to the woodshed.

Got Gold?

Might be good for a £50 pop, doubt it’s more though.

Even if it did lead to an early election, if Labour were looking like they’d get the 140 majority I believe has recently been predicted, then doubt the pound gets weaker-means perceived likely less political chaos, and Starmer less in hock to left of the party, and thus less likely to need to appease them with economically damaging policies.

(I think that’d be the market perception anyway)

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Pissy that the privileges committee was apparently gonna suspend BoJo for 10 days, triggering a by-election that he would probably have lost.

so throwing toys out of pram (also probably seeing the writing on the wall that they might well lose their seats in 15 months anyway).

If they lose all 3, might exert extra pressure on Rishi to do something more dramatic sooner, to try and give them a chance-promise to abolish IHT/raising income tax allowances etc

Then Sunake and his chums have been electioneering for months now, I think they hope beyond hope they can garener enough support to somehow keep the banker in power.

It's a shame he wasn't up against Corbyn this time.

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

"A calm before the [US] storm"?

https://many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/episode/markets-are-quiet?

This fits nicely with what was mentioned at the end of this podcast i.e. increased macro uncertainty measures and their impact on returns [-ve when high] and market volatility [high when high]. It also shows link/correlation with Vix:

https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/White-Papers/Certainly-Uncertain

[Plan-b]

9 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Might be good for a £50 pop, doubt it’s more though.

Even if it did lead to an early election, if Labour were looking like they’d get the 140 majority I believe has recently been predicted, then doubt the pound gets weaker-means perceived likely less political chaos, and Starmer less in hock to left of the party, and thus less likely to need to appease them with economically damaging policies.

(I think that’d be the market perception anyway)

The greatest I ever experienced was brexit night, some serious upside during the night,  Everyone I asked and knew was voting out and the polls just didn't see it.

Everyone was on one-side of the boat when the shock decisions came in it went like a rocket. Made some serious gains that night 

[Plan-b]

28 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Might be good for a £50 pop, doubt it’s more though.

Even if it did lead to an early election, if Labour were looking like they’d get the 140 majority I believe has recently been predicted, then doubt the pound gets weaker-means perceived likely less political chaos, and Starmer less in hock to left of the party, and thus less likely to need to appease them with economically damaging policies.

(I think that’d be the market perception anyway)

Even a modest £50 pop is £5K per 100oz

[Axeman123]

I doubt markets move significantly on this BJ news. Doing this over the weekend is presumably intended to panic the men in grey suits, and precipitate a come-to-jesus talk between them and Pishy.

I expect a market calming announcement of party unity by Sunday night, accompanied by a symbolic policy concession. For the latter it looks likely to be IHT abolition (or dramatic reform), as this has been a key media focus. Jeremy Cunt would then be on borrowed time having been de facto overruled by the MPs IMO. Maybe we get Kwarteng back in his place, and Pishy focuses full time on California and Ukraine until BJ is ready to reclaim number ten in a few months time. Half joking with that last one, although Cuntanomics looks deader than Disco now to me.

[Eventually Right]

42 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Even a modest £50 pop is £5K per 100oz

How many 100s of ounces do you have?!

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

How many 100s of ounces do you have?!

Right now half-ish that is around 40oz, some on BV have many hundreds of ounces and beyond

Edited June 10, 2023 by Plan-b

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

The greatest I ever experienced was brexit night, some serious upside during the night,  Everyone I asked and knew was voting out and the polls just didn't see it.

Everyone was on one-side of the boat when the shock decisions came in it went like a rocket. Made some serious gains that night 

I got 100 quid on at 16/1 when farage conceded.

[Plan-b]

15 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I got 100 quid on at 16/1 when farage conceded.

I think I'm gonna have a punt on BV ready for Sunday night when the markets open.

LSWH

[Funn3r]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

For anyone not already into EMs Henderson Asian Income has been a poor performer,but its looks like the companies it holds might be well positioned from here.

I'm quite a lot down but agree for the future and I'm not selling.

Accompanied a female friend today on a "shopping for a dress" trip. Every bloke knows what that's like and it was predictable being amongst other bored-looking men hanging around the fitting rooms. First time I have "gone shopping" for ages, probably since before covid, and I was surprised how quiet it was in the actual shop. Friend is fairly well-off (paid over 300 quid for two frocks) but for an otherwise busy Saturday afternoon there didn't seem to be many actual spenders. Packed with people in the street watching musicians and so on but shops empty. Could just have been the sun I suppose.

Chat with friend and she is not happy with a few incidents recently when they decided to have a day out somewhere and found a charming restaurant only to find that drinks were OK but sorry no meals due to lack of staff. Tried to explain why that could happen and I think it is slowly dawning.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/man-finds-1-million-copper-30199606.amp

Timely perspective focusing reminder not to let your life’s commitment of retaining a store of value like physical coins, then peg it and have a cnut estate agent like this sell it all off to benefit from it:

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/man-finds-1-million-copper-30199606.amp

Timely perspective focusing reminder not to let your life’s commitment of retaining a store of value like physical coins, then peg it and have a cnut estate agent like this sell it all off to benefit from it:

 

 

 

I didn't know he became an estate agent after leaving Friends.

[Phil]

21 hours ago, King Penda said:

The west ain’t spending 

Cos there's not much left to spend.

[Wight Flight]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cos there's not much left to spend.

I was thinking about this.

I guess most younger working people had a couple of hundred £ after costs every month for niceties.

Mortgages have gone up by this amount on average. As have rents (from what i see, rent hasn't risen by a % but by about £200 whatever the property).

That leaves nothing. 

Boomers are still fine, but they don't spend enough to make up for the lack of spend from everyone else.

 

[Plan-b]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cos there's not much left to spend.

Wealthy boomers still got plenty of dosh, their next in the distribution crosshairs