Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Underwhelmed]

8 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Bitcoin +20%

Safe haven status confirmed.

Or maybe people are dumb as fuck.

Or perhaps I am.

well this is exactly the event Satoshi created Bitcoin for so let's see

[Chewing Grass]

As it's Budget day on Wednesday I was expecting TPTB to be produce something that turns it into a complete pile of smouldering poo.

Looks like as usual I'm not going to be disappointed.

[montecristo]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

As it's Budget day on Wednesday I was expecting TPTB to be produce something that turns it into a complete pile of smouldering poo.

Looks like as usual I'm not going to be disappointed.

Oh lets increase corporation tax that's bound to help.

 

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, montecristo said:

Oh lets increase corporation tax that's bound to help.

 

Pushing up house prices will somehow help this.

 

[Libspero]

52 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Wasn't it the Russian economy that was supposed to implode . 

Tech has been overheating for the past couple of years..   we’ve really only gone over the top of the rollercoaster since Christmas.

Feels a bit like the dotcom bust with all the most speculative stuff going to the wall and dragging everything else down with it..  impressive to see they’ve managed to take out a bank though.  Clearly lessons weren’t learned from the GFC.

[No One]

4 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Spent the morning emptying all the savings accounts I had with these dodgy little banks. 

When the fed admit they won't raise rates the market should have a little rally, give us time to get out of the bits and pieces of divi payers I've been collecting. Then it's game on.

We've been waiting for this for 15 years. Savour the moment. 

"All I know is, I'm getting paid, and someone's getting torn open."

why? Do you have more than 85k in cash?

if not its rather stupid thing to do with inflation at 10%

2 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Then you'd have to believe that a bunch of Han Chinese and a bunch of Australian Aboriginals randomly selected and put on identical unfamiliar islands (so neither had applicable experience) would fare similarly.

Superiority is a tricky word though. Maybe it includes "genetic and cultural inheritors of those who created a way of living, are superior at navigating that way of living?" There should be nothing controversial about that IMO, and if there is a source of "white*" privilege then that is it.

More broadly: "Likely to be better at certain things?" sure; "Inherently more deserving of human respect and dignity"? Nope.

* the woke US school/college classification of East Asians as white or even white++ tells me that the "better at navigating the world" scale, i.e. unearned privilege, is really about what your ancestors had [opportunities] to do in order to succeed. The privilege is the informational inheritance you received from them.

NB the ideas explored in Guns Germs and Steel, e.g. different plants available for cultivation thousands of years ago, will surely have influenced the genetic and cultural development of the various groups, so perhaps the book is making a false argument along the lines is "there is no difference because the difference was caused by luck."

Its genetic advantage, and it came about not because of germs horses and steel or whatever that writer thinks but because the northern hemisphere is harsher and tends to kill off more of the idiots therefore naturally selecting intelligence

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just bought some more Blackrock Latin America ,Telefonica Brazil,CIG,SEDY,Telia,Braskem,Ultrapar,Ubisoft.

I got more Ashmore as it was cheap, 

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Ubisoft? 

I was going to say, why Ubisoft? I used to own in 2020 but I sold later on, they are wokies running out of ideas. Assassin's creed has been milked dry, Rayman is long gone, what is there in the Ubi pipeline now adays?

1 hour ago, Errol said:

The fact that they think a Presidential address is needed tells everyone that the system is completely unsafe.

This.

The lest president to do this was Bush in 07, didn't go very well. 

A president trying to re assure the public is like shouting fire, it would have been better to send a low rank WH official.

32 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

well this is exactly the event Satoshi created Bitcoin for so let's see

Yes but Bitcoin is not used for payments, its a pyramid scheme.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Wolf covered this yesterday.I see no reason why depositors shouldn't be made whole in principle.Currency is a mdium of excange and a mathod of storing savings for most and they need to have faith that a) they'll get their capiatl back and b) the regulators are doing their jobs.

I accept that possibly when the scale of the losses are that big that depositors legally could be made to shoulder some of the burden but what's happening here is infintiely preferable

Just to be clear,it looks like there is still some fat left in terms of secured bondholders to bail in before depositors are at risk.

worth noting that signature bank got closed as well.$110bn in assets $90bn in deposits.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/new-york-state-regulators-close-signature-bank-2023-03-12/

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/12/silicon-valley-banks-uninsured-depositors-bailed-out-crypto-signature-bank-shut-down-all-depositors-bailed-out-senior-execs-fired-all-shareholders-some-bondholders-bailed-in/

The way it seems to work, with lots of tough love in the statement:

1. The Fed gives the money to the FDIC as needed.
2. The FDIC makes all deposits available on Monday.
3. The FDIC then sells the assets of the banks, which takes some time.
4. The difference between the cost of bailouts of the depositors and the proceeds from the asset sales is the actual amount the FDIC lost.
5. The FDIC charges other banks a “special assessment” to cover those losses, “as required by law.”
6. And it may then pay the Fed back with those funds it collected from other banks?

Signature Bank was shut down on Sunday by New York Department of Financial Services, which announced that it took possession of the bank and that it appointed the FDIC as receiver of the bank.

Depositors of Signature bank are included in the bailout, as the joint statement by Yellen, Powell, and FDIC spelled out:

Shareholders and some unsecured bondholders of both banks get bailed in. Should have done your homework, darn. The joint statement said for both banks: “Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected,” with Tough Love from Powell, Yellen, and Gruenberg.

Senior management gets axed. No word about claw-backs or indictments or anything, but nevertheless at least they weren’t promoted and put in charge of the bailouts. “Senior management has also been removed,” the statement said.

Other banks with a run-on-the-bank can get funding from the Fed.

It's hard to see the Fed continuing with QT,reverse repo and raising rates at current trajectories given what's happened and that the tightening cycle clearly played a part.

The Fed is really boxed in here with inflation running.Goona get messy down the line.

Gold up another $22 this morning.

With all of this required I can only think that a) the reforms were not as all encompassing as they have stated/should have been following the GFC, and b) the current system and/or ways of doing business are not 'fit for purpose'.

[geordie_lurch]

Wow in just over a week I've gone from hitting a record 42% up to 34% today. I'm not complaining or panic selling and will be buying with some of the 15% cash I built up top slicing / taking profits the last few months but this feels like it has further to run first

Edited March 13, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[HousePriceMania]

36 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Tech has been overheating for the past couple of years..   we’ve really only gone over the top of the rollercoaster since Christmas.

Feels a bit like the dotcom bust with all the most speculative stuff going to the wall and dragging everything else down with it..  impressive to see they’ve managed to take out a bank though.  Clearly lessons weren’t learned from the GFC.

The Motley Fool saying Apple is a bargain, buy now.

Yip, the crash is coming.

[Alifelessbinary]

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

Then where do you put it?  Genuine question.

Full disclosure: I stay under the bank compensation limits and diversify my wealth.  As a family we currently have 4.5 years of spending in Savings Accounts with Banks.

I think all you can do is stay diversified. If the banking system ever did disintegrate then losing your savings in the short term would be the least if your worries. While fragile I believe the capability system is just robust enough to avoid a Mad Max barter society, however much the prepper in me would like to test that scenario!

For my savings I have them split over multiple banks within the compensation limits. I also have a full quota of premium bonds for me and my wife (will the rates aren’t amazing, the prizes are tax free and backed by UK government). 

The greater concern comes from risk relating to my investment accounts, as they have lower limits and contagion risk in EFTs ect… Where possible I’ve tried to research the best managed platforms and have asked around for recommendations from friends who work in the i industry.

Spreading your wealth over multiple platforms causes some admin issues and I’ve decided to cap this at a total of 4 platforms maximum.

I never thought I’d get to a position where I’d have to worry about the compensation limits, but a combination of hardwork and luck means that it’s now a material consideration.

It does explain the obsession that wealth managers have with assets that don’t go to zero, as a banking run can potentially be one of the biggest risk events for companies and high net worth individuals.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Ubisoft? 

yep,just think its cheap

[Errol]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Bitcoin +20%

Safe haven status confirmed.

Or maybe people are dumb as fuck.

Or perhaps I am.

It's because the bailout keeps the crypto industry alive.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Bitcoin +20%

If you have shitcoins and can't cash out to fiat in a period of uncertainty, self custodied BTC is the next best thing. Bad news for crypto always spikes the BTC price. Losing all fiat offramps in that case is the most bullish thing possible for the price of BTC. It is worth noting that without on/off ramps for fiat the dollar prices are entirely theoretical, and just represent how much more desireable BTC is than most other Cryptos (Ether etc are probably benefitting too tbf).

[JoeDavola]

57 minutes ago, No One said:

A president trying to re assure the public is like shouting fire

[Democorruptcy]

This is how you handle these situations. How much do you need?

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow in just over a week I've gone from hitting a record 42% up to 34% today. I'm not complaining or panic selling and will be buying with some of the 15% cash I built up top slicing / taking profits the last few months but this feels like it has further to run first

Im currently ATH in one day in my portfolio after re-buying the miners end of last week (after selling at peak beginning of Feb) 

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Im currently ATH in one day in my portfolio after re-buying the miners end of last week (after selling at peak beginning of Feb) 

Definitely time to hodl. 

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This is how you handle these situations. How much do you need?

 

One of the best films ever made

[PatronizingGit]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

The Motley Fool saying Apple is a bargain, buy now.

Yip, the crash is coming.

Has the motley fool ever said any stock market investment is bad, ever, in the last 15-20 years?

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Once a bank run starts,it's hard to stop especially when the depositor base is mainly well connected individuals and companies.

Which suggest Fractional Reserve banking [or the limits they are allowed to take the model to] are not 'fit for purpose'...funny how borrowers are subject to 'stress testing' and fail prior to the loan being made, yet lenders although supposedly the same only appear to fail post the event, and then expect to be 'bailed out'!....I thought we had "been there, done that, 'got the T-shirt' " in 2007/8, and the 'unforeseen' one off event had been addressed?!

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, King Penda said:

One of the best films ever made

It's seemed a bit property porn to me, in more recent years.

[Long time lurking]

3 hours ago, F150 said:

Is it happening?

 

Yep,time to say goobye

[No One]

IMPORTANT

 

Whilst the bank drama in America is going on J Cunt is releasing the budget. Timing couldn't be better to sneak one by. Is anyone keeping an eye on this?

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

1 minute ago, No One said:

IMPORTANT

 

Whilst the bank drama in America is going on J Cunt is releasing the budget. Timing couldn't be better to sneak one by. Is anyone keeping an eye on this?

IS the 23% fuel duty increase or whatever it equates to now ,still on the table ?