Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[honkydonkey]

4 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

How many Bitcoins was that?

<1

[No One]

@DurhamBorn

 

[No One]

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

Can anyone recommend a trading platform that does ISAs, has good market coverage (equities) and reasonable charges?  

I'm using Fidelity but the lack of coverage has become too much to put up with. 

t212, aj and bell, so on... theres much to choose from

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn

 

So because purchasing power has been destroyed and investment returns in pension funds still haven't recovered to 2021 levels the little people can try and save 50% harder.

Fuck-you Cunt, fuck-you HM Gov, fuck you Politicians.

[stockton]

58 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

HSBC gets down to 300 then it might be worth a punt.

HSBC is a good shout, I will be keeping an eye on SSantander too

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

So because purchasing power has been destroyed and investment returns in pension funds still haven't recovered to 2021 levels the little people can try and save 50% harder.

Fuck-you Cunt, fuck-you HM Gov, fuck you Politicians.

steady now, youll give yourself a prolapse.

[A tremendous # on the lung]

33 minutes ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn

 

Shouldn't this be in the shower or grower thread? 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn

 

My worry is are there other changes to pay for it.Pushing the pension age back of factory workers to pay for even bigger pensions for consultants in the NHS etc would be shocking.They might also do this,but add pensions to estates instead of being inheritance tax free,doesnt hit those Drs as they are final salary pensions but would smash anyone in money purchase to pay for them.

Its ludicrous how often they are changing pensions rules.I dont think it will have any effect on people retiring though.Most are going because of the toxic woke bullshit and are sick of paying tax for scroungers.Im off out on the drink tomorrow for Cheltenham,but dont want to be too rough Weds as this budget could be interesting.

[F150]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My worry is are there other changes to pay for it.Pushing the pension age back of factory workers to pay for even bigger pensions for consultants in the NHS etc would be shocking.They might also do this,but add pensions to estates instead of being inheritance tax free,doesnt hit those Drs as they are final salary pensions but would smash anyone in money purchase to pay for them.

Its ludicrous how often they are changing pensions rules.I dont think it will have any effect on people retiring though.Most are going because of the toxic woke bullshit and are sick of paying tax for scroungers.Im off out on the drink tomorrow for Cheltenham,but dont want to be too rough Weds as this budget could be interesting.

better be cask only

Edited March 14, 2023 by F150

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, F150 said:

better be cask only

Cheap lager,going in a car,diesel,il dump the car and take another car the next day to pick up that car.No buses here after 8pm.

[F150]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Cheap lager,going in a car,diesel,il dump the car and take another car the next day to pick up that car.No buses here after 8pm.

that's car brain infrastructure ruining local businesses again

[F150]

my divi ETFs have about 20% weighting of financials

i need a low fee divi ETF without WOKE, financials and automobiles

[RJT1979]

Short gold? Free money?

[RJT1979]

Gold was on way down till svb. No need for gold as all deposits protected now. They kill 2 birds one stone

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

12 hours ago, PatronizingGit said:

Has the motley fool ever said any stock market investment is bad, ever, in the last 15-20 years?

oh yeah lots, recently they said to give Rolls-Royce a wide berth when they were DOWN to 70p!

motley fool are a bunch of dipshit FOOL stock tippers, they have the HIGHEST paid 'direct response copywriters' AND this is how they persuade the gullible to part with cash for their BS newsletters/subscriptions etc...

BUT, they are a FANTASTIC contrarian indicator!

[ThoughtCriminal]

The plot thickens?

[Majorpain]

28 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The plot thickens?

Not really, Fed spoketh:  "let U.S Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets not be marked to Market, but at par value"   And the market bought those bonds because the Fed Bond Put now makes something worth (say) 80 cents now worth close to 100.

The key thing is how long can they keep doing this, raising interest rates to combat inflation depresses bond prices, so if Powell wants to keep hiking the problem is going to keep happening.  Those bonds will eventually have to sit losing value on someone's balance sheet.

In a nutshell they are printing money to buy bonds so they can raise rates to stop inflation.  Western financial systems make no sense and are rather fragile these days.

[Lightscribe]

34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The plot thickens?

I’ve been thinking about this. The SVP collapse was probably the ‘best’ outcome the Fed could have hoped for with a bit of QE in all but name.

Stuck between a rock and hard place, they couldn’t raise up above 5.5%, yield curves  were still inverting higher, inflation wasn’t budging, DXY was getting stronger.

By shaking the $, ‘stimulating’ the yields to drop, indicators have turned that inflation will now drop (without further rate rises) causing a rush to treasuries to secure at current yields dropping them further giving some breathing space.

Win-win, doesn’t stop a recession or a secondary inflationary wave however, but it certainly buys time.

[RWJ]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Not really, Fed spoketh:  "let U.S Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets not be marked to Market, but at par value"   And the market bought those bonds because the Fed Bond Put now makes something worth (say) 80 cents now worth close to 100.

The key thing is how long can they keep doing this, raising interest rates to combat inflation depresses bond prices, so if Powell wants to keep hiking the problem is going to keep happening.  Those bonds will eventually have to sit losing value on someone's balance sheet.

In a nutshell they are printing money to buy bonds so they can raise rates to stop inflation.  Western financial systems make no sense and are rather fragile these days.

I don't pretend to understand it but surely the problem shrinks, and eventually disappears, as these debt securities mature, at par.  In that sense it's a temporary accounting plug and the duration of the debt determines how temporary it is.  If they're using printed money to buy that is reversed at maturity, no?

I'm not defending them or their fraudulent system, just trying to work out the impact.

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

BREAKING NEWS

Now I am not one to start rumours, but I have been reliably informed today that the SVB collapse wasn't as a result of a depositor 'run', but was actually due to one of the Dosbods community [who will remain nameless] buying some shares last Thursday.

FYI, I understand he/she is contemplating buying further Banking Sector shares of a former colony Worldwide bank again this Thursday, so you might all want to buy Centrica instead! :-)

Can't believe you marked this as informative @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker! ...hope you don't think it's a tip?! :-)))

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Not really, Fed spoketh:  "let U.S Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets not be marked to Market, but at par value"   And the market bought those bonds because the Fed Bond Put now makes something worth (say) 80 cents now worth close to 100.

The key thing is how long can they keep doing this, raising interest rates to combat inflation depresses bond prices, so if Powell wants to keep hiking the problem is going to keep happening.  Those bonds will eventually have to sit losing value on someone's balance sheet.

In a nutshell they are printing money to buy bonds so they can raise rates to stop inflation.  Western financial systems make no sense and are rather fragile these days.

Remember when i said they might have to reach the place where they printed and increased rates,i wasnt sure if or how that would happen,but here we are.Instead of mark to marker losses you now have inflation losses.They still lose against inflation.Those bonds paying 2% coupons against an equity paying 7% increasing at 6% a year etc,but the Fed is stopping those losses being front loaded.Of course it also means you can but now with yields higher with much less risk and a good punt that if inflation averages less than 5% your in clover,if it doesnt its inflation losses at worst.

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ve been thinking about this. The SVP collapse was probably the ‘best’ outcome the Fed could have hoped for with a bit of QE in all but name.

Stuck between a rock and hard place, they couldn’t raise up above 5.5%, yield curves  were still inverting higher, inflation wasn’t budging, DXY was getting stronger.

By shaking the $, ‘stimulating’ the yields to drop, indicators have turned that inflation will now drop (without further rate rises) causing a rush to treasuries to secure at current yields dropping them further giving some breathing space.

Win-win, doesn’t stop a recession or a secondary inflationary wave however, but it certainly buys time.

Yep looks like a double wave inflation more and more.I expect now inflation will fall,it might even get down close to 2%,then turn back up to around 5% and sit there.Rates ended up at 3.5% longer term.I think they need to inflate away at around 2% to cover deficits to stop collapse.So rates to average 2% to 3% less than inflation over the cycle.

[Noallegiance]

9 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

So because purchasing power has been destroyed and investment returns in pension funds still haven't recovered to 2021 levels the little people can try and save 50% harder.

Fuck-you Cunt, fuck-you HM Gov, fuck you Politicians.

Sounds just like when they upped the tap-pay from £30-£50-£100.

Upping currency limits as they know it's going down hard against goods and services.

[Boon]

What worries me is that inflation might simply be swept under the carpet either by fiddling with the measures, or just tolerating it. Of course it looks like coming down sharply because very high figures now drop out of the 12m, but then how it remains at 2% is beyond me.

Obviously the bond markets are screaming for cuts but I don't see why Powell should listen to that. Credibility would be improved if he just raised and kept it there until inflation was done. Once credibility is lost it isn't easy to get that back.

Somehow it seems rather mad to me, if you just look at the interest rate reflecting the time cost of money and also counterparty risk. If the central bank is not suppressing it via QE the natural rate is not going to be 1% or 2%. 

[HousePriceMania]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its ludicrous how often they are changing pensions rules.

Strong and stable...